Sign “O” the Times
It’s just no fun being a Democrat anymore:
A new report on voter registration trends finds that Democratic voter registration is down by more than 800,000 since 2008 in 8 key battleground states. GOP registration has also declined – but by only 79,000, a tenth of the Democrats’ losses.
Meanwhile, registered independents are on the rise, increasing their numbers in those states by nearly half-a-million.
The analysis, conducted by centrist Democratic think tank Third Way and appearing first in Politico, points to the critical role independent voters will play in determining the presidential outcome in some of the most competitive states on the 2012 map: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina and Pennsylvania.
That reads like a who’s who list of states President Obama would really like to win again. And that is “again.” People are dropping the Ds from their names in swing states Obama won by comfortable margins just four years ago.
This is one of those things I don’t want to believe is widepread under “not cocky getting” (hey, I can too use that construction) and all that but almost all the “independents” I know, registering that way are republicans who are afraid their registration as such will be found out by bosses, co-workers and neighbors, because the party of tolerance will punish those they consider the “enemy.”
It’s never wise to get cocky but this is one thing folks should remember the next time some media outlet comes out with a poll showing Obama up by 6 using a D+9 sample. I really get tired of Eeeyores on our side writing “I know the polls are crooked but Romney should be closer.”
There is a commenter over on the Belmont Club that has the tag after their name (I lie to pollsters). There seems to be a large but unknown number of conservatives hiding their beliefs especially in the Blue States, academic environments, and other snake pits of the left. The resentment of having to do that is going to be a powerful motivator come November IMAO.
I AM what happens when you’ve had enough of hiding. A year and a half ago I JUST couldn’t take it anymore. I got lucky and my book with the one publisher who doesn’t mind my politics did well, and there’s indie which is not yet a significant source of income, but IS increasing and is there. BUT I was going to go visible, even if I had to starve, and I don’t think I’m alone. (Oh, and my other publishers dropped me, as predicted, even though one series was doing QUITE well — shrug.)
Until two years ago, I too was registered independent and watched my every word and my every facial gesture.
Oh, and for the record, I lie to pollsters too. My reaction in 04 was “They made a mistake. They believed their own polls and didn’t make up enough fake votes.” To put it bluntly, unless True The Vote has a massive effect, our best bet is to lie like rugs. JUST don’t believe the polls. They’re pure GIGO.
Democrats, note that the 2012 Presidential Election will be held on the following dates.
Republicans: Tuesday, November 6
Democrats: Wednesday, November 7
A public service of Americans for America.
People are dropping the Ds from their names in swing states Obama won by comfortable margins just four years ago.
They wouldn’t be trading in the ‘D’ for an ‘I’ if they were planning to vote for Obama again.
While encouraging, I’m actually more interested in prognostications regarding the likely makeup of the next Senate. Harry Reid, alleged pederast* and known associate of people with ties to organized crime**, seems to think the Ds can hold it.
*google it.
**http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/314025/how-did-harry-reid-get-rich-betsy-woodruff
If anyone thinks Obama can win NH or NC, they are high. FL is really doubtful, too. CO, NM, NV, and IA are all in play, as are OH and VA. Also in play are WI, MI, PA, and maybe even MN. Heck, even ME, MA, and WA are outside shots this year. These “also’s” are reliably Blue States, and they are in play. That’s a bad sign for the bad guys.
Sure, they are not likely to go Red, but Obama is gonna have to work to hold them. He is playing defense this year. It is looking like Romney can win even if he loses OH, by carrying WI. I even have a tie scenario that seems deliciously possible. He carries all the battleground States, except OH and CO.
Liberal heads would explode. It’ll be just like “Mars Attacks”. They’ll all be saying “Ack-ack, ack!” Boom! Heads exploding.
Obama already has all the votes he needs from
the states that really count:
Chihuahua, Jalisco, Sinaloa, Michoacan…
not to mention Forest Lawn Cemetary
I hate to sound like one of those “Eeyore’s” but I’m concerned by the decline in Republican Registrations, even if it is 1/10th of the Dem losses. Given what the Dems have done the last 10 years, Republican registration should be going up, not down. That means that the voters leaving Dem registrations aren’t embracing the Republicans, that the liberals running the media and the schools have successfully trashed the brand so completely that more and more people are just saying “the Hell with both sides” and dropping out. That’s the first plank in Obama’s plan, the next is getting people to forget the issues, the last is importing voters from Mexico and sneaking them in with fraud (because voting Democrat is another job Americans just won’t do). Smart voters who look at the issues won’t fall for this but I’m no longer convinced that’s a majority of the population.
Given what the Republicans have been doing since 2008 — trashing Sarah Palin and blaming her for the election defeat; combining behind a warmed-over also-ran from the 2008 primaries (whose Massachusetts health care boondoggle was not only the template for ObamaCare, but who actually urged it be used as the template) to push him down Tea Party supporters’ throats as the “inevitable” viable alternative to Obama; making stupid, accommodating deals from a position of strength after the 2010 election; failing to defund ObamaCare … the list goes on, and on, and on — I really think the GOP is getting off lightly, and for one reason only: the other guy is the worst president this country has ever had.
The polls simply do not reflect what’s going to happen November 6. They are being gamed by a media establishment that is more biased than ever, and people are self-selecting themselves out of the respondent pool as a result.
And anybody who thinks the Obamarrhoids are capable of pulling off a massive criminal conspiracy to steal the election, when they can’t even wrap enough duct tape around Joe Biden’s mouth to keep him quiet, is working way too hard at the “don’t get cocky” advice.