It’s Hip to be Square
Mitt Romney making inroads with youth voters? Dude:
For the first time since he began running for president, Republican Mitt Romney has the support of over 40 percent of America’s youth vote, a troubling sign for President Obama who built his 2008 victory with the overwhelming support of younger, idealistic voters.
I imagine the last three or four years have drummed some of that idealism out of America’s youth.
For a little perspective, voters in the 18-29 bloc went better than 2-1 for Obama over McCain — 66% to 32%. An nine-point gain is nothing to sneeze at, even if it does bring Romney up only to 41%.
Also, the youth vote was energized four years ago, and represented a larger share of total votes cast than is typical. This time around, not so much. Obama will likely win a smaller share of a shrunken demo.
The poll was conducted by Zogby over the weekend, so a couple caveats. Weekend polls aren’t generally as reliable as weekday polls, and Gary Johnson snags five percent of the youth vote when he’s included in a three-way race.
What’s interesting is, Johnson takes those votes away from Romney, not from Obama. That tells me that younger voters today might be closer to where they were (where I was!) back in the ’80s — fed up with Big Government.
Zogby… on a weekend… for 18-29s?
Way too many red flags there.
You would think, but —
– that Gary Johnson number is intriguing. On a weekend, maybe especially on a weekend, you’d expect his draw to come from the other side.
My guess: Shark Week. All the stoners were home watching Discovery Channel.
You left out that Obama was only at 49%. Mitt +9, Obama -17, and still the overall number was tied at 46.
Sorry, Zogby, but even if Mitt gets 41 and Obama gets 59 from the youth vote, Obama’s toast. He simply can’t afford to lose 18% from the youth vote.
I think that was the point.
Square built the modern world.
Hip is attempting to bring it all down, man.
If Obama can’t get the youth vote in October, he’s toast. Even with 40% of the youth vote swinging to Romney (and I think it’ll go higher with the addition of Ryan to the ticket), he won’t be able to win reelection.
Also, I think the actual “likely voters” is greater in total for the conservative side because that’s always been traditionally suppressed in voter poll samples.
And Gary Johnson? If the stoners bother to make it out the front door (and remember where the polling station is), he’ll make it to 2% nationally.
I’m not surprised a bit that younger voters are moving to Republican side this election. Think about. Everyone loves the “cool parents” who don’t care if you drink beer, use their hot tub, and trash the place while their gone. But which parents do they run to when they need advice on how to fill out a job application, a lift to band practice cause their car broke down, or how to tie a necktie properly for the big date? There’s a lot at stake with this election but to me the biggest factor the Romney/Ryan ticket has going for it is simply competence.