Is Pennsylvania the keystone to President Obama’s reelection? That’s what Tom Bevan argues this morning:

If you’re looking for ways to boil the 2012 Presidential race down to its simplest form, here’s one of the easiest: it’s nearly impossible to envision any way Barack Obama can win re-election next year if he loses Pennsylvania. No Keystone State, no second term. It really is that simple.

As of right now, things are looking dicey for the President in Pennsylvania. Two weeks ago, the Democratic polling firm PPP released a survey showing the President’s job approval rating at just 42% among Pennsylvania voters.

Yesterday, Quinnipiac University confirmed PPP’s findings with a survey of their own conducted in Pennsylvania last week showing an identical job rating of 42% for the President – a new low for Obama since taking office.

Worse still for the President, for the first time the Quinnipiac poll found a majority of Pennsylvania voters saying that Obama does not deserve to be re-elected.

I thought immediately of the email Glenn Reynolds published yesterday from a reader in PA. Key bit:

It began a week or so ago at Sams’ Club:

I was in one of THOSE lines and ended up chatting with a well dressed middle aged woman with a cart half full of grocery items.

I made mention of the fact that while I didn’t normally make the hike to Sams’ that with prices going up I figured I had to make the effort.

She exploded: Prices are sky high, she’s feeding three kids, eating store brands and sale items but can’t afford to stock up, on and on.

Then the lady in front of HER piped in: if prices keep going up she doesn’t know what she’ll do, their budget is already at the breaking point, trying to keep a daughter in college, off she goes.

Then a man in the next line over heard them and HE jumped in: this is ridiculous, Washington is killing us, economy broken, he’s off to the races.

1996 was the “Soccer Mom” election, as Bill Clinton connected with suburban moms on pocketbook issues which Bob Dole just seemed too old and out of touch to understand. 2012 may well be the year of the Sam’s Club Voter — at long last.