A Few Unhappy Thoughts on the Middle East
The crackdown begins in Bahrain:
Bahraini security forces have opened fire on anti-government protesters, witnesses and opposition activists say.
The protesters were fired on after they had streamed into the centre of the capital Manama from the funerals of protesters killed in a security crackdown earlier this week.
Witnesses said the army fired live rounds and tear gas, and officials said at least 25 people had been hurt.
I know some Glenn Beck fans are probably reading this, but anarchy is a much more likely outcome than Caliphate. Not that either result would be especially good for our interests. Al Qaeda & Co thrive in failed states — but what happens in a failed region?
Truth be told, the Arab world has been failing for a long time. The region combines a long history of Ottoman oppression, lingering resentment from the fleeting period of Western colonialism, ballooning populations and shrinking economies, a malign fascination with Nazi racial theories and Soviet-style politics, and the skewed absurdities of oil wealth and Western aid. Shake it all up with the murderous and nihilistic resentments of Islamic fundamentalism, and you get lots of angry, well-armed people with no experience in self-governance and lots of scapegoats in need of a good killing.
This will get worse before it gets better.
If you have a failed region, especially one rich in a certain natural resource, differing groups will compete to be the ones to restore stability. One upshot of that might be that the ones who gain are those who want the Caliphate. Glenn’s probably a bit too much in warning about these riots as I think there are genuine reformers who want stable, democratic and secular governments. But we can’t be blind to the fact that there are those who will use this as a means of bringing the Caliphate back.
This brings to mind the Russian Revolution, where there were democrats who worked with the Bolsheviks & Mensheviks to overthrow the Tsar. And we know how well that turned out.
Ive been asked this question repeatedly over the past month, so I’ll ask it and answer it here:
“What year is this most like? 1979? or 1989?”
My answer is this. Neither.
Its probably worse than 1979 and I dont see anything particularly “1989-ish” yet, but there is another possibility that I do see parallels to.
In the summer of 1914, a punk kid in Sarajevo stood on the running boards of a car and shot a man and his wife. This single act started a cascade of actions which lead to a series of wars that finally ended in 1989.
Today we can look back and we can construct a series of events that lead to the first world war, even though those engaged in life at the time could not. We can look back and see a direct connection to what would become the Second World War, even though those engaged at the time could not. We can even see a direct connection to the Cold War, even though most at the time would have been hard pressed to connect Gavril Princips’ petty grievance to the Berlin Blockade and the Wall thereafter, but there is a direct line between the two.
The people living in the summer of 1914 didn’t know what was coming and after a year, all the major combatants in what was then called the “Great War” which we call “The First World War” had little idea what caused the war, worse, none had any idea how to get out of it. The result of reacting to that one crime was a horror that brought the twin horrors of Communism and Fascism to the people of Europe and it spanned nearly half the century.
To add insult to injury, the initial grievance that Gavril Princip was trying to resolve by murdering members of the Austrian Royal Family, goes unresolved to this day.
The events of 1914 started small and yet quickly overran the ability of governments and nations to respond to them. History is funny that way, you don’t really know its history until its long past. The name Gavril Princip was not widely known in 1914, it was only after that we could see the connection. Its possible Years from now, we are likely to look back on the winter of 2011 and the self immolation of Mohammed Bouazizi or the drought in the Sahel in 2010 and see that these were “Sarajevo Moments”.
I’ve said it before, so it wont be too much of a surprise when I say it again. We don’t really have maps for this part of the river of history that we are currently on. I can give you a parallel to 1914, but we really don’t know where its going next. If there is any part of what we are living in now that resembles 1914, its that as we float down the river of history, we don’t know the size of the rapids we can now hear off in the distance.
Were just going to have to see where it goes. My general method of navigation in waters like these is to expect the worst and hope for the best.
The only addendum I would make to your argument is that in 1914 there were several long standing monarchies who stood to do battle with one another, ultimately to the death. By 1918, however, the monarchies were gone. This provided the space needed for untried, unorganized ethnicities and ideologies to act out without fear of reprisal. Indeed, the battles for independent Poland, Czechoslovakia, Yugoslavia, etc. were as bloody as the worst fighting seen on the Western Front. In the words of Churchill “when the war of the giants is over the wars of the pygmies will begin”.
well-armed people with no experience in self-governance and lots of scapegoats in need of a good killing.
Great phrase. Please consider that capitalism is based on peaceful, voluntary agreement (win-win), in all cases for those making the deal. Where there is not a win-win, there is not a deal.
With gov’t, it is always a win-lose deal, based on somebody being forced to pay or to do something they wouldn’t do peacefully.
Non-capitalist folks have little experience in making win-win deals with strangers, or those whose politics are disagreeable.
My source inside libya is saying the warfala tribe has gone against Ghadafi, which if true, is very big news. Tripoli is still in hands of Ghadafi forces but battle for control is still going on in Benghazi and Tobruk. The word is that we will know in the next 48 hours who is winning.
The big question on the ground isnt who is winning but “Who will take the Ghadafi family in exile?”
Oh on an added note, the Swiss hate him since he thought it would be hi-larious to lock up all swiss businessmen in libya last year over some petty dispute (which cost the swiss economy dearly), so he shouldnt expect any “banking favors” as he departs the scene.
Something about ‘payback’ and its relationship to female dogs comes to mind right about now.