Where Steve Goes
Apple CEO Steve Jobs is taking another medical leave, reassuring investors and fans that he has “great confidence that Tim and the rest of the executive management team will do a terrific job executing the exciting plans we have in place for 2011.” But at Business Insider, longtime Apple watcher Henry Blodget thinks that Jobs’ public statement might prove to be his valedictory.
Jobs wrote, “I love Apple so much and hope to be back as soon as I can.” And Blodget thinks that “those are not the words of someone taking a short leave who is confident he will be back at the company soon (or ever).” Blodget cites the statement Jobs released before his first medical leave, when he promised to return in just six months. Jobs has made no such promise this time around.
Considering just how sick Jobs has been, and for how long, the safe bet is the one that Blodget is making: Apple is about to endure the Second Going of Steve Jobs.
Over at the Wall Street Journal, Brett Arends says that Jobs “has proved himself to be the most extraordinary chief executive in the world and among the most extraordinary in living memory.” And that his “absence must subtract enormous [shareholder] value.” The key graf in Arends’ piece is this:
Apple true believers may argue that the company will continue to succeed, regardless of its leadership, because of its superior technology. Yet Apple computers were better than PCs back in 1997, as they were in 1987 and as they are today. But the company was still heading for oblivion. Technological brilliance is not enough to make stockholders rich. You need management brilliance too. Steve Jobs has given Apple a focus and an edge that is matched by few other companies. This is a fast-moving, brutally competitive industry.
Arends makes almost-uniformly good points here, but one of them is wrong and the others need expanding.
Where Apple Was
Contrary to what Arends claims (and contrary to what most of the Mac faithful believe), Macs were no longer superior to Windows machines — by August 1995, when Win95 was released. At that time, Mac users had just gotten hold of the System 8 Mac operating system, which was a concession of failure by Apple to produce the long-awaited “Copland” OS. Prior to that, Mac fans had been stuck with the nearly-obsolescent System 7 since 1991. And Mac buyers were confronted by a confusing array of computers from which to choose, with tell-nothing names like “Centris” and “Quadra.”
The original Mac OS was a real kludge, albeit a gorgeous one. But to fit it into the then-available 64k of system memory (yes, 64k), much of the OS existed in the Mac’s hardware, in chips. In 1984, Mac OS made something like 400 different calls to hardware. Trying to modernize all that hackery was more than Apple could do.
But what Arends has exactly right is that Apple did have “technological brilliance” without “management brilliance.” Apple’s engineers continued to come up with brilliant new technologies and innovations (QuickTime and Newton and HyperCard are just three that come immediately to mind). What Apple had trouble doing in the years after Jobs was forced out, was creating products marketable at a profit.
After the i-Pad- in essence a large i-Phone- who cares? As superior as Apple computers are to their unnamed lame-ass competitors, some fresh blood is needed. Jobs is brilliant and deserves much credit, but this market is vicious.
Couldn’t they just hire Noah Wylie to do the product demos?
^5 for memory of obscure Apple lore!
Apple makes great products but it is not fair to compare them tp P.C.s. Apple works under a very tight set of requirements and does not offer near the software that can run on a windows based machine. Also P.C.s are the true open format machine while all of Apple products are not. They are really two different types of machines.
Can Apple survive and thrive without Steve Jobs, I say it is Apples only true chance at wide success. As the company is currently configured it is only a one or two bad product releases from oblivion. They simply do not have enough penetration in the Personal Computing Market and as long as they market it with thier own operating systems and keep the hardware closed up it will always be.
You miss one thing, Jobs has never been interested in wide success for it’s own sake. Nor is Apple as a company really configured for wide success. Apple remains a niche player, but their true use is as a company which innovates, which creates the next big thing. Something the major PC makers and Microsoft do not excel at.
Patrick
I agree with the niche style of marketing but I do not agree with statements such as better hardware, better operating system or first P.C. Apple was at the start to be sure but many other computers were available at the same time and some before. Apple was the most successful of the early entrants to the field.
Seriously?
While there were a ton of CPM computers at the time, it wasnt the TRS-80 types that got IBM worried. It was that solid looking little AppleII machine running Visicalc on dept manager’s desk that made them run to Gary Kildahl then Bill Gates.
Apple offers future proofing in a way that the PC world has never done. Their compiler quickly and nearly seamlessly handled the switchover from PPC chips to x86 chips. The issues of taking the Windows world to a new chip architecture have defeated Microsoft. They gave up selling Windows on other chips back in the NT4.0 days.
It’s this foresight and attention to detail that set apple apart and that save them from being a few bad releases away from doom. They are the technology company that is future proofed and easy to use. That’s a persistent value proposition which will keep them alive for quite a while.
This is false on both counts.
Apple’s transition wasn’t seamless, and Microsoft’s transition to 64-bit chips — very different — has been so seamless that you appear not to even know about it.
I don’t think this is the key to the success or failure in the marketplace of either Mac or PC. This isn’t the late 1990s, and frankly nobody really gives a crap about “Mac vs. PC” any more.
The world beyond the desktop is what matters and will matter. Apple has really pioneered in this area, though the Palm was the first successful pocket machine. Remember the Palm? The fact that it was the ground breaker, but now it is the Kaypro or TRS-80 of the new era suggests that Apple doesn’t have an easy road ahead. Neither does anyone else, of course.
My experience in the hardware business that includes products like Apple builds tells me that purchase orders being issued today are for products which will be available for the market in about 18 months. That gives them a long tim to milk Jobs’ mind and have him innovate with the others on his team.
Smaller, faster, less expensive and with monstrous memory and communications capabilities and wow-factor will be fun to watch.
The only problem for Apple? Lots of companies can do and have been doing these things right now.
I have never resolved, in my own mind, whether I think Jobs is the best strategic CEO or the best huckster of the modern era, but regardless, Apple under Jobs has really done an incredible job of being first to market with things people want, and convincing them to fork over their cash. Apple has never played well in a commodity market, and the Smart Phone is rapidly becoming such. Remember Motorola, who not too long ago dominated the cell phone market? Then Nokia? I fail to see that the Smart Phone will be much different, especially since I got a nice one with my latest Verizon contract, and Android is finally ready for prime time in its 2.2 revision.
Apple has done best when it brought out something different that people liked, and sold it for a premium (read high-margin) price. They have done worst at surviving in a highly-competitive commodity marketplace. Once the desktop computer became a commodity, Apple suffered greatly. Other companies went under. The survivors, like Dell, had very different business models.
What happens if/when the tablet becomes a commodity?
What next for Apple? They might have something really good. So far, they have. But I don’t think that continuing to produce a phone and a tablet among many competitors will be as lucrative as it has been, so there will have to be something new, at some point.
MP3 players have been a commodity for years. Apple still has 70% market share, and an even greater share of the profits.
PCs have been a commodity for, what, 20 or more years in current form? Apple is growing its market share (after never really gaining it in the ’80s, and totally blowing it in the ’90s, as detailed above) and, again, enjoys profits greater than share alone would indicate.
Smart phones are quickly becoming commodities, but we haven’t yet had real head-to-head competition between iPhone and Android. That’s set to change next month, when iPhone goes to Verizon, and I’m curious to see what happens.
Tablets, I suspect, will commodify even faster than smartphones — almost four years of iPhone have “trained” users what to expect from a tablet, and competitors are lining up a mile wide. Most of the iPad competitors we’ve seen so far are mostly disappointing. But again, can’t wait to see what happens.
Head-to-head competition hasn’t happened much for a number of reasons. That will be interesting to see. But I’ve sure seen a lot of brand-new Android-based phones lately as I meet people around town, and I have not met a single new Apple phone user in a while. Again, Android is just now really good, too. I wouldn’t have wanted an earlier version.
Still, that’s not the problem with commoditization. Apple’s phones will have to compete with FREE phones. Now that almost every phone is a Smart Phone, the question is “Will you pay a lot more for a slightly different one?” We all know what the answer to that was, on the desktop, in the late ’90s.
The iPod isn’t an MP3 player, anyway. It’s largely an iTunes access device. iTunes is the real genius.
It’s a mixed bag. However, those who thought that the Mac didn’t have to compete with commodity computers as they improved were dead wrong. Those who thought that the Motorola brand commanded a price premium in the cell phone market were wrong. Those who thought that Palm lovers (I was one) would keep buying Palm devices were wrong.
Personally, I’m not buying AAPL, but that’s for a slightly different reason. Buying AAPL means blindly trusting that they’ll come up with a new “next big thing” within the next two years. The price is too high for blind trust, for me anyway.
Well, now to the intestines of what’s real! Competitors have built around a Microsoft OS and MS OS’s are not designed for these new product paradigms. As soon as Google gets more traction with Droid, watch MS shrink. Apple has tuned the OS for the different devices as it is far more modular and designed with the future in mind.
Apple still has the OS lead, but Google is paying OS designer and developers over-the-top dollars and they’re producing. Knowing Gates, Schmidt and Apple, the battle is between Apple and Google, and that will spawn more innovation.
I would dispute that Apple products are technologically superior to either PCs (computers) or android phones. Innovative in design yes but not in any practically functional way.
Since switching to Intel processors Apple computers are nothing more then PCs with a different operating system and a rigid configuration control system not scene since IBM dominated computing. Apple ultimately relies on other manufactures to drive technological innovation.
Jobs has committed the same mistakes with the iPhone that he did with the Macintosh. He focused on the device and not the operating system and until this year relied on the monopoly power of a single carrier. Google has followed the Wintel model and is well on its way to dominating the smartphone market. The iPhone 4 was already behind Android before it came out. The 4G Sprint Evo is functionally far superior to the iPhone. With multiple carriers and manufacturers competing for business the iPhone 5 if and when it comes out will be so far behind that only Apple fanboys will buy it. Adding Verizon to the iPhone market is too little to late. It will just take away business form ATT and not draw many new users at all.
The iPad is a classic example of Apple design without real purpose. If the iPad changed everything why would Apple come out with a new notebook design? Once again Google did it right. A smaller more portable tablet that puts the iPad to shame.
You miss the point here — Android came out AFTER the iPhone had already opened up the market. Android tablets came out in RESPONSE to the iPad.
How is Apple not driving innovation here? Sure there had been other tablet PCs before the iPad, but they hadn’t been particularly functional or popular. There were mp3 players before the iPod but the market hadn’t particularly taken off until Apple got in and created something that not only worked but looked cool. Again and again Apple has done this same thing. Taken existing products and made them usable or come out with a new product that made us rethink the way we do things.
Sure PCs are cheaper and nearly as usable as Macs but why did they get that way? Because the original Mac was easier to use than a DOS PC. Apple redefined the way we thought about computing to the point that except for a few of us old farts and uber tech geeks most of us don’t remember a time when it wasn’t this way.
Sorry guys, I know Apple and Steve Jobs are generally a love them or hate them thing, but without Apple and without Jobs there’s a great deal of the modern world that wouldn’t exist as we recognize it.
Get well soon Steve,
Patrick
Actually the smartphone was invented by Research in Motion five years before iPhone. Android was in the works before the first iPhone came out. Apple just beat Google to market.
Apple did not invent the GUI for the first Mac. They bought it from Xerox and they didn’t improve it either. They didn’t get a better operating system until they switched to the Unix based OS X. Apple doesn’t dominate the market for high end PCs. They dominate the market for expensive PCs. (someone else made that claim). You can spent $2K on a PC and it will crush a $2k Apple in performance.
While I agree that the iPad, which is an over sized iPod touch, is an “innovation” but to what end? Android responded with a more practical device that is truly portable. Besides the industry has been playing around with tablets devices for years. Apple just did a better job of marketing them.
Like many pundits forecasting the doom of Apple for the last decade, you miss the point. Apple’s total widget engineering and interface elegance are what makes their products work better, by a very wide margin, than anything else on the market. It has very little to do with the actual hardware in their devices and computers.
Remember the Zune? And every other portable music player made for the last decade? They were raped and pillaged by the iPod because Apple cracked the nut of what people want out of digital music players: A quick, intuitive interface TO that music, without clutter and gimmicks and “good enough” management software. The iPod, as such, is more than the sum of its parts, as is the case with every other product Apple makes.
It’s irrelevant that X smartphone is technically superior on a sum of its parts basis to the iPhone, just as it’s irrelevant that you can, indeed, purchase “faster” PC laptops and workstations. On paper, they’re better. In practice, they are not, because the software is horrible and engineering ethos is incompatible with how the majority of our brains operate.
When you buy a Mac, you’re not buying a box with a collection of components inside. You’re buying a computer that largely does what you want it to do without a plethora of stability, security, performance and usability issues. Macs are for people whose time is worth money, and as such will happily pay a premium for a product that demonstrably works better than anything else on the market that has any kind of commercial software support.
As to The Steve, I doubt he’ll be leaving us any time soon, and while his eventual departure from Apple will certainly have an effect, it’s ludicrous to assume he’s not well aware of his health and has planned Apple’s future direction accordingly.
What he said.
Whoa there. I think it is darn tough to argue that Windows 7 is not the best OS right now. In fact, I don’t think it is even close.
Windows owns the market for sub-$1,000 boxes. Apple owns the topside. Keeping in mind that the innards, the guts, are all commodity items between both operating systems.
Furthermore, that’s in the consumer market, where people spend their own dollars, and have no vested IT interests in the status quo.
In dollar terms, OS X more than holds its own.
But, let’s say that you’re right. Let’s stipulate that by every measure, Win7 (Win6.1, really, but let’s not quibble) is every bit as good — or even better — than OS X.
Well, I’ve been using OS X for almost five years. People smarter than me (and there are millions of them) have been using OS X since 2002 or even 2001.
So I’m very happy if Windows users are finally getting the experience the rest of us have been enjoying for the last five, six, seven, eight, or nine years.
Yet when you get right down to it, the lack of an open architecture for the development of software will continue to hold Apple back. Apple has taken bold moves when it comes to ergonomics and inovative style, but if does not run the software I need in order to do my job, I’ll never be buying an Apple.
I’m a consumer user — but I’m at the bleeding edge of consumer use. I rip my DVD and BD discs (using my own, customized MKV and HandBrake settings, I might add) and store them on a Drobo array which I keep fine-tuned to peak performance. In terms of consumer computer users, I am at the top one-half of one-percent — and yet OS X still does everything I need it to almost nothing I wish it wouldn’t.
The only thing “holding Apple back” in the consumer space is the cheapness of Windows boxes.
But that’s just fine with Apple, which sits on a war chest bigger than Microsoft’s and bigger than Google’s.
And do I have to mention market cap?
“I’m a consumer user — but I’m at the bleeding edge of consumer use. I rip my DVD and BD discs (using my own, customized MKV and HandBrake settings, I might add) and store them on a Drobo array which I keep fine-tuned to peak performance. In terms of consumer computer users, I am at the top one-half of one-percent”
I’ve been doing all these same things now since at least 2003, Stephen. On my PC. Well, obvioiusly not the BD ripping, since that’s new. But the idea that all these things are only available on the Mac is ridiculous. This stuff was bleeding edge five or six years ago, but would only place you in the top 25% of PC users, most of whom (myself included) have been building dedicated media PCs since 2005. Just look at the popularity of websites offering configuration advice for such PCs. You’re not on the cutting edge, or “top one-half of one-percent.” You’d be firmly in the mainstream of PC users. In 2007.
I never even implied Windows user can’t or don’t do those things. In fact, it’s probably much more common on that side. Good grief, but there’s nothing one can write that can’t be misinterpreted.
Whoa there big boy! If you’ve got an inside track on MS, let us know. W/7 is still pieced together with duct tape and is not modular. You see the surface, but underneath, it’s a cluge. It has to be rebuilt from scratch to become modular and compete.
I am very familiar with their development and testing processes and it’s a nightmare.
Have you looked at the latest Zune? Its interface is better then the iPod and I own both. It also has an HD radio receiver. Apple never put a tuner on the iPod where even the cheapest mp3 players haed them. Apple iTunes is why the iPod has been so successful. It is simply the best music service around.
Said Zune storming the ramparts and getting what percentage of the market?
Oh, right.
Your sir, miss the point. Just because the iPod is the biggest seller doesn’t mean it’s the best player. I always thought that was Apple fanboy argument. You know, The Mac is the best computer in the universe even if nobody buys it.
Apple markets to perpetual adolescents. It’s the “cool kids” device. The smart set couldn’t care less if its better, worse or the same because what makes Apple better is that “they” have it and the losers don’t
The HD radio tuner is there by new Federal mandate. The FCC wants to force this loser technology down our throats.
Zune deserves neither credit nor blame for that function – which you paid for whether you wanted it or not.
I’m pretty familiar with the iPod and iPad platforms, and I really didn’t like Android much. It seemed like a lab project, not a package ready for market.
Recently, I got a phone running Android 2.2, though. It works great and frankly I now prefer it to the Apple interface, though perhaps only by a narrow margin. It came with my latest Verizon contract, and for anyone with half a brain who understands that any cell phone will be obsolete in a year, that counts for a LOT. I have better things to do with my money than be the first on the block with an expensive toy. YMMV.
Oh yeah… I can replace the battery, too.
“Can Apple Survive the Second Going of Steve Jobs?”
I sure hope so because Microsoft totally sucks.
You are always welcome to use Linux! As far as phones go though I like Android and having used the RIM Blackberry and spending thousands for use of them you know what. Right now I just use a flip phone!
I do not need all the frills or anything else in my day to day life!
I suppose though that some people do but just as a status symbol!
Oh! And I meant to add, both corporations are disgraceful Obama suck ups, but, I am a Mac man. I like to think of that in the Mel Gibson, Braveheart, sense, knowing full well that nothing could be further from the truth, but there you have it.
Happy MLK day. Would but that the liberal party had not politicized this truly wonderful celebration of a great American life. There is no nation on Earth that has accomplished, on the “racial equality” front, as much as America. It it an accomplishment that all Americans should take pride in. Just think about it. We began our national existence as a minor English/British slave colony (yes, even Massachusetts used to accept the, er, utility of slavery). BUT LOOK HOW FAR WE HAVE COME! No nation has ever forged a truer path to human equality than the United States of America — I MEAN NO ONE. WE are the ones that had to overcome our beginnings as a collection of colonies with a slave population of one-fifth of the total. Stop and think about that. THINK of the challenge those numbers meant. We were not like the European powers whose MAJOR slave populations resided in faraway lands.
So take pride, America. Pay no heed to the liberal/progressive/pseudo Americans (see “Democrats”) behind the MSM curtain who would rob you of your national pride and patriotism. They hate America. Or, at most, they have a vested interest in anti-Americanism.
We are a great nation. The greatest this world has ever known. We are the ONLY nation on Earth whose founding is based upon a notion, of individual freedom — Liberty — rather than upon the parochial interest of some particular tribe. WE KNOW THIS TO BE TRUE — Obama “transformational” agenda notwithstanding.
Ahem.
Minor peeve: It’s Jonathan Ive, not Ives. Carry on.
Thanks for catching that. I have it fixed now.
It took Android 2 years to surpass IOS. Android won. Better hardware and better compression of OS updates. Gingerbread will address the major shortcoming of Android, which is input and audio latency, not the usual red herring of ‘fragmentation’. It’s called competition. Android now has dual core and discreet graphics. Done.
Android achieved it’s current numbers through “buy one get one free deals”. Apple sells every phone at list price, for about $600, including carrier subisides. Android is a blatant carbon copy of the iPhone, much like Windows was first a stolen version of the Mac OS.
If Windows 7 is so great, do users still need to purchase a 3rd party security/ant in-virus program to protect it? Apple computers are secure and do not require this expensive and ineffective measure.
Apple OSX has been steadily increasing in market share for the last 6 years. Businesses are now adopting with the understanding that the higher quality has a value, and iPhones and IPads run special apps that help them run their businesses.
All the PC box assemblers run on a business model that has as it’s prime focus delivering the PC at the lowest cost, and winning business by price competition. Tat is why there is no innovation at Dell or HP or Lenovo. They can’t innovate if they must be the low cost supplier. Apple is the only manufacturer focused primarily on quality and it does so through full product vertical integration. Since it is the only one that makes the hardware and software it it the only one that can guarantee a positive user experience. That is why it is the most profitable, highest revenue, highest growth, highest cash on hand highest market cap company in the tech industry.
The people who say Apple must become like Dell to succeed demonstrate a rather obvious ignorance. Do a simple stock graph of DELL vs AAPL over the past 5 years. While you are at it, do the same with Microsoft.
Apple is very simply the best run company in the world and has been since Jobs return. His brilliance has put in place a management team and a product architecture that no other company can replicate anytime soon. It is THE only vertically integrated hardware and software maker of size. It willncontinue to do well for many yeas due t the foundation Steve Jobs put in place. At the same time, his rare blend of market awareness, design expertise, focus, determination, and leadership will be sorely missed.
Android is most definitely not a carbon copy of IOS. If you’d used both like I have, you would know that. It’s fine if you like carefully controlled environments where most of the decisions are made for you. Some people like that. With Android, the consumer builds his system from scratch with system-level navigation and cloud integration, true multi-tasking, an open app market and a FRIGGIN REPLACEABLE BATTERY (ahem, sorry for screaming). And once again, multiple manufacturers are competing against each other for features, which is only good for the consumer.
Yes Sean you will need to frequently replace your battery because the system is not designed to work well with the battery that is included. Apple has had the same policy for batteries on its laptops and iPods and iPhones for years and has sold hundreds of millions of these devices. Most of the world finds this to be no problem, but you appear to be exceptionally demanding. Also, does your Android have a touch interface with a close resemblance to the iPhone touch interface, that when it was announced everyone said it would be plagued with fingerprints and was doomed because it did not include a physical keyboard?
And does your Android interoperate with your laptop OS easily so you can easily share content from your phone with the larger display on your TV?
Because everyone, simply everyone, wants to dig into the guts of their phone and “build it from scratch”. Huh?
Android’s fabulous for people (i.e., geeks) who want to hack their phone. The iPhone is for the other 99% of the population who simply want their phone to work, work well, and have a battery that lasts.
The battery lasts?
Yeah, right.
My iPhone goes on the charger every other night, on average. My iPad gets plugged in every third.
The battery lasting does not mean the CHARGE lasts or doesn’t.
It means I have known people who have had to get by without a phone while Apple replaced their failing batteries. All batteries fail in time. They’re all the same technology. There’s a reason that most of them can be swapped out without tools.
First, I’m on a two-year upgrade cycle, and have never had the battery get so worn out that it required replacement.
That said, I did manage to break two copies of my original Rev. 1 iPhones. I’m a klutz, so I always buy Apple Care. And what happens is, you walk into the store, you give them the broken phone (in my case, both times, it was obvious the physical damage I’d caused was not covered by Apple’s extended plan), and the nice person behind the desk swaps out your broken phone for a refurb.
It’s that kind of customer service, perhaps equal to the actual products, that has made me a loyal customer.
I think much of their success is due to their constant advertising. It’s impossible to turn on a TV without seeing their ads during every single commercial break.
At least in prime time and sporting events.
On the other hand, when the current hipster fad is over (which I give 4 years) they are probably really in trouble…
I never got your love of Apple, Mr. Green. I have no love of Microsoft, but I’ve also never really liked the Apple mystique.
I don’t love any Apple “mystique.” I love Apple’s practicality.
Here’s a small example to illustrate what I mean.
I once was a Windows power user. I built and/or upgraded my own boxes, including swapping CPUs even just for marginal speed improvements. In the days of Win3.1, I would strip out EVERYthing I deemed unnecessary, to free up as many handles as possible. (These days, I don’t even remember what those are, but I got my old 486/With-Pseudo-Pentium-Strap-On-CPU up to 33.) But from the days of Win95 until I switched to Mac in 2006, one thing drove me batty.
My various computers all had ethernet cards. I, a home user, had no ethernet. Never once had any of these ethernet cards had an ethernet cable plugged into them. And yet, every time I booted any one of these machines (a daily, if not more frequent, occurrence), Windows felt it necessary to pop up a balloon dialogue informing me that the ethernet card that had never had an ethernet cable plugged in, still didn’t have an ethernet cable plugged in.
Every.
Single.
Time.
And I was, by all accounts, something of a power user. And yet even I couldn’t figure out how to get rid of one stupid balloon dialogue — over the course of four or five PCs and three or four Windows variants.
OS X doesn’t bother me. It doesn’t bug me. It doesn’t constantly inform me about things I never cared about. OS X gets out of my way, and stays there.
For most intents, Mac OS is invisible to me. Which means I have more fun with the fun stuff, and get more work done in less time with the work stuff.
Do I pay more? At the cash register, yes.
But I pay far less in the long run.
That’s not mystique. That’s not glamour. That’s not advertising. That’s not the Reality Distortion Field.
That’s the Mac experience.
Open Device Manager and disable your ethernet adapter. Simple.
But if you should ever want to use ethernet you’d have to re-enable.
With Mac, it was there if you should need it and without the silly and annoying pestering.
Wow, avoiding 6+6 mouse clicks is worth the $500+ Apple Tax? If your 12 seconds of time and effort are worth that much, more power to you.
Lifetime Intel PC user here, and former PC tweaker, now typing on my MacBook Air. Should have made the switch ages ago. I’m tech savvy having worked in computer communications since the 80s. It’s a pleasure to be finally free of annoying Windows baggage.
Jobs’ ideas are still in the pipeline. He’s had notable misses, remember the Newton, but he’s in a class by himself as an innovator of products people actually like and use without frustration.
Newton was John Scully’s baby when Jobs was at NeXT.
As Steve said, the Newton was pre-Jobs. One of the first things he killed upon returning.
The Cube is Jobs’ only real failure. And that was more a failure of price than anything. The design was an absolute winner. It was just too expensive.
I heard a rumor once that Jobs considered resigning over the Cube. AAPL tanked rather significantly because the sales forecasts for the Cube were so off. Jobs was extremely upset over the decline in shareholder value, and blamed himself for the failure. Glad he was talked out of it.
My daughter’s PC was constantly infected with viruses and worms in spite of anti-virus software. My wife used a PC at work but only with a program that was standard and they were trained to use. She knew nothing about using a computer otherwise. I got both of them iBooks. For my daughter, it was heading off to college where help with viruses and worms would be mote difficult. Both of them never had to take a lesson or needed help. Once in a while, my wife needs some help with a new procedure.
That is the Mac experience.
Sounds like a user problem to me. If you update your virus software regularly you don’t get viruses. Nobody I know who has PC has problems if they have current virus protection. Buy a Norton package, make sure auto update is on and you don’t get problems. You don’t have to take any action besides renewing the protection every year.
Forty bucks a year? Tack that onto the price of your PC, for as many years as you plan on owning it, before comparing it to Apple prices.
That’s $400 in ten years so it’s still cheaper to by a PC. And if you don’t have virus protection on your Mac then you will be infected.
Viruses evolve faster then operating systems and it is a constant battle to stay ahead. The only difference between Windows, Linux and Apple is that the first two tell you the truth. I am a Linux user and I get security updates ever 7-10 days on average. Do you think Apple is any different? I have had computer intrusion classes and guarantee you that breaking into and exploiting any operating system is easy.
By the way Safari for iPhone/iPad is the least secure browser on the market,
Microsoft Security Essentials.
Free download. Free updates. made by MS for MS.
MS got tired of paying for tech support phone calls to virused users, and started giving away Microsoft Security Essentials for free.
Very well loved by the geek set. works very, very well. I haven’t had any problems since installing it on the many PC’s I am enslaved to.
If you were doing serious hardware hacks to free up everything, I’m amazed that you didn’t treat the etherenet cards like I treat modems.
Pull it out.
It will free up one IRQ, a slot, a source of failure, ventilation room in the box, a small bit of power and, apparently, an extreme irritation for you.
If you choose to use it again later, just pop the card back in. Shouldn’t have been much of a trick for somebody doing CPU swaps.
Love ya, Steve. Thanks for wading through all the scum so we don’t have to.
Two different problems, two flavors of Windows.
Never had to worry about handles from Win95 on. With Win3.1, was forever deleting any little “helpful” item to get more.
The ethernet annoyance popped up with Win95, and stayed. And I’d have loved to pull the ethernet cards out of all those different boxes, but they were all built-in. Tried disabling it in Hardware Manager, but then the system tray always had a little red strike through the ethernet icon, which was even more annoying. The little warning dialogs went away. The disabled-hardware slash was always catching my eye, making me wonder what was wrong.
OS X mostly shuts up and stays that way.
Disney, Walton (Wal-Mart), Ford, Edison – when the visionary founders go (usually feet-first), the explosive growth of their companies invariably ebbs. The companies prove mortal, and (from an investor’s POV) begin to behave like any other company.
If Jobs does not return, Apple will be good for a few years of growth, as the iPad and iPhone saturate their (enormous) markets. But that should be the end of the road for Apple, at least as far as it being the Ubercompany it has been in recent years.
It will be a sad day when Steve can no longer helm Apple. Perhaps we have even seen that day already.
Technically this would be the THIRD going of Steve Jobs.
And judging by how things went in his 2nd. He learned the lessons of the 1st very well, and the 3rd will go quite swimmingly.
Jobs has put together an team an an institution that reflects a certain outlook towards the business. Apple is not a one man operating out of a garage outfit. It relys on many people who Jobs has brought in. A decade after his departure, things may be different as one’s legacy can only last so long in an active business.
And what went wrong in the 1st going ? He put in someone from outside the industry, essentially a professional CEO, in charge. Today, the people in charge in his abscence are technichal people first, business managers second.
You’ll never see an “Undercover Boss” episode with anyone at Apple, as they are not removed from the nuts & bolts of the business as many other top level managers are.
However, what we will see is a rehash of the tech press silliness where supposed journalists embarass themselves with gossip and completely unsourced prophesies of doom, from Jobs’ last medical leave.
I cut my personal computer teeth on the Apple II and I built a successful career on the Macintosh. I don’t see a big future for Apple.
Its PCs are no longer a priority, its iPods are being rapidly commoditized, its iPhones/iPads are being overtaken by Android, and the cult of Steve Jobs is about all it has left and Jobs, all praise and best wishes be upon him, is approaching retirement as CEO one way or another.
Barring a miracle, we are seeing the last days of the Apple mystique and the Apple premium.
“Barring a miracle, we are seeing the last days of the Apple mystique and the Apple premium.”
I guess you haven’t dealt with the weird quirks of microsoft operating systems lately.
“Its PCs are no longer a priority, its iPods are being rapidly commoditized, its iPhones/iPads are being overtaken by Android.”
Oh, rubbish. Wait until Apple’s financial results are announced this afternoon and you’ll learn that Macs are still a priority, and they’re doing spectacularly well. Nor are the iPods being “commoditized”. Not even the low-end models encounter much competition to speak of, and the higher-end models (the iPod touch series) are expanding the universe of iOS products – the market targeted by all those iPhone apps. “Overtaken by Android”? Don’t make me laugh. The Android phones, in all their 57 varieties, got their boost because the phone they wanted (iPhone) wasn’t available on their network. Just look overseas where the iPhone is often available on multiple networks and Android is an also-ran.
I have 2 apples and 4 Windows PC’s and I am a software engineer by trade. I see nothing in the Apple OS that would make me believe that they are superior from a user standpoint. There is nothing an Apple will do that a PC can’t do, but there are TONS OF THINGS a PC can do that an Apple NEVER WILL.
If you are home user and you need a box to get on the internet, fetch email, create documents or do graphics/multimedia Apples are fine, although they are overpriced. If you need to run a wide array of business applications or development platforms, you can forget Apple. If you need to run enterprise level applications and databases servers you can forget Apple for that too.
The fact there is no competitive market for Apple on the hardware side is a tremendous disadvantage to the consumer. It merely allows Apple to overcharge for the same or even less capability than Windows machines.
The fact the original iPad did not multitask is a disgrace that would never be tolerated by Windows users yet Jobs and Co. get a pass. They are allowed to sell inferior crap and then replace it in 6 months so they get people’s money all over again for the same product.
If Apple disappeared tomorrow there would be no void in the marketplace. They don’t provide one product that cannot be substituted for something as good or better, and probably cheaper too. If MS went away tomorrow it would be devastating to the consumer and business market. People buy computers to get things done. Windows runs thousands of applications that won’t run on an Apple. There are also thousands of hardware devices that work with Windows but not Apple. The end.
I have an original iPad, and it multitasks just fine.
On the desktop side, I used to shell out $3k every 30 months for a bleeding edge Windows machine — plus the various and expensive hardware upgrades I felt necessary to install along the way. Now I buy a new Mac every four or five years, and maybe put in bigger (and cheap) hard drives in between.
I’ve saved money.
And headaches. Oy, the headaches.
The original iPad did not multitask, a new O/S was released in Nov 2010 that finally brought true multitasking to the iPad. I see no reason why anyone would have to shell out 3k for a Windows box period much less every 30 months. I have the highest end quad core HP notebook there is and it cost me under 2 grand at Best Buy.
I don’t know what O/S you were running on Windows but NT 4.0 and 2000 were very stable. Even Vista ran fine although there were some early hiccups, something that Apple has experienced as well.
One of the reasons Apples are seen as more reliable has to do with their inherent limitations. When the number of programs and peripherals that are available for a platform are exponentially smaller, it is easier to control reliability issues. Apple is also a closed shop on the hardware side. They have more control but the consumer pays the price for that too.
Many of the problems Windows users experience have nothing to do with the O/S at all, they are brought about by 3rd party software and hardware drivers that were written poorly. The trade off of course is you have far more choice in what applications you can run and what devices you can use.
Windows has also maintained backward compatibility going back to DOS, another huge challenge. This can cause some issues but it also protects the investment people have made in their software going back 20 years. Apple, on numerous occasions, has just told their users to forget backward compatibility. If you bought a program for an old version of the O/S, that is too bad for you.
Lastly, most malware and viruses are written to attack the Windows O/S. The reason is obvious, it is a more target-rich environment with millions more users. Not too mention that most hacker types hate Microsoft.
I’ve worked in IT for a very long time, and I would have to be on a hell of a lot of crack to buy a bleeding-edge ANYTHING with my own money.
Nothing from Apple, nothing in the PC world, nothing in the cell-phone or tablet worlds. Money down the toilet.
How come no one’s asking the important questions?
Like if it’s time to sell stock or not?
I’m looking at it as a buy-on-the-dip, but keeping a wary eye 24-plus months out.
Jobs as corporate leader is really a throwback to some of the the founders of the major corporations from a century ago, in people like Thomas Edison or Henry Ford, in that in the minds of the public, they were their companies, and a significant segment of the public had enough faith in the previous products produced by those men to believe in whatever new innovation was about to come out.
That’s where Jobs’ absence threatens to hurt Apple, in the same way it’s been rare that the quarterback in the NFL who replaces a Hall of Famer ever comes close to duplicating his predecessor’s success. People believe in the founders of successful companies in a way they don’t believe in second-generation leaders, and anything the new guy (or gal) does is always being compared to what they think the guy everyone loved would have done.
Jobs could hold peoples’ loyalty to a preparatory system like the Mac OS in a way the new leader of the company won’t. Think that antenna problem with the iPhone 4 would have gone away as easily if it had happened this coming summer, with Jobs gone, as it did this past year? It would have been spun as Apple losing its way without Steven around to oversee things, and more importantly, Mac fans would be more likely to have their faith shaken and believe it’s true if Jobs isn’t running the company.
Presumably, Apple’s not going to make the same mistake twice and double down on the confidence shaker by hiring someone who ran a soda and snack company to helm things again. But when you’re running as much of an in-house operation as Apple does with its computers and peripherals, any slip in faith is far more costly than, say, HP screwing up some new PC release. Bad for them, and another bruise for Windows, but there are dozens of companies also using Mr. Gates’ system. An Apple hardware glitch impacts Apple software and vice versa, because no outsiders are allowed in, and as long as your followers have the faith, you can briefly slip up and they’ll not only forgive you, they’ll even help you alibi along until you fix the problem (the OS X 10.0-10.3.9 search feature was a steaming pile of feces – you had to almost know where the item was on your computer or network in order to begin searching for it; the system from 10.4 on is fabulous, but Apple acolytes wouldn’t admit the original system blew chunks until after the problem was resolved). But once the faith is lost and people start pining for the way it used to be, it’s hard to get the magic back again without finding a new leader with his or her own unique dynamism.
So you’re saying they need an Aaron Rodgers to Steve Jobs’s Brett Favre (no offense Steve)? Here’s hoping.
At the very least, they need the new boss to be Steve Young to Jobs’ Joe Montana…
There are so many technical and factual errors in this article it can be safely dismissed. I was at the launch of the Mac in ’84 and started on my first shipping shrinkwrap product a few months later (I shipped my first DOS product the year before). I’ve spent most of the last 27 odd years developing Mac shrink wrap and most of the last 15 years developing / porting Win32/MacOS shrinkwrap. Win32 is a mess, MacOS classic / Carbon was pretty nice and MacOS X Cocoa is the biggest rats nest since Win95J. Cocoa is just about usable for mobile apps but beyond that level of complexity a nightmare.
Those of us who have actually worked in the business for the last few decades know what a truly nasty person Jobs is. That Apple since the Nexties took over is little more than a giant ego trip for Jobs. That the PC unit market share is exactly where it was in 1997, 3% but the software market share is much lower. Jobs megalomania destroyed the MacOS software ecosystem. Job overweening arrogance and contempt for developers is such that we are all willing for Android to crush iOS’s market share over the next few years. Which it will.
NextStep was not a complete failure without good reason.
As for the stock, all you need to know is that it is the most widely held stock among hedgies, who have been playing an epic game of chicken over the last 24/36 with the stock price. When it blows up its likely to be a dozy.
Macs are a pain for ordinary mere mortals to operate. PCs are far more straightforward and simpler. Even if they are linear rather than geometric and less “interactive” (for which I am grateful).
Most of us are fairly stupid so the PC will continue to enjoy greater success with ordinary folk.
They are simpler to use and the “interface” does not slide all over the place.
iPads and iPhones/iPods are not computers. They are iTunes viewing devices.
You cannot get your hands on the data generated by the apps. It’s somewhere, but try getting to it.
I had one app that stored custom imbibement recipes. I got a notice that the app needed updating. All the custom recipes disappeared. There was no way to backup or recover that data.
Try hooking a USB device like a thumb drive to an iPad or iPhone to add or retrieve a simple text file. Good luck.
Try hooking your iPhone to your HD TV via its HDMI plug to view your movies in HD. What’s that you say? The iPhone doesn’t have an HDMI plug?
Try adding or removing data from your iPhone when you’re at a “foreign” computer, not your local registered iTunes computer. What’s that? It erased everything?
And what’s the fear of Flash? Half the internet works via Flash. But not on the iPhone/iPad.
Yes, the iPad/iPhone line is elegant. But functionality only comes when attached to a mothership computer and iTunes.
They’re extended viewing devices. They aren’t “computers.”
Not a computer? Interesting. Because other than acting as my PJTV teleprompter, I literally have not touched my laptop since going iPad last spring. I have a bluetooth keyboard for writing longer pieces (like the column you just commented on), but otherwise find it’s just fine as a content creation device.
That’s what I used our video department’s iPad for this morning: as a teleprompter using the unbelievably inexpensive Teleprompt+ app for our IT VP to read his web-streaming promotion into our camera on location. Fine for short runs. Wireless, compact, bright, sharp, self-powered. Amazing.
I used the Apple Bluetooth keyboard, too. It’s really the only way actually to type on either device. Virtual keyboards blow. Nice in a pinch but in reality, not even close to a real keyboard.
I stand by my mistrust of iPod/iPhone/iPad data security. Too easy to lose, too difficult to access, too disconnected from me, its owner. I don’t like the idea that mother Apple can reach out and destroy what is mine if they decide after the fact they don’t want it on my device.
I’m kind of surprised that you, Mr. Green, would give up the liberty of “getting under the hood” so readily.
Besides, PCs are fun because they are just frustrating enough and just accessible enough that they present a manly challenge to make them work.
When a Mac dies, throw it away. Unfixable. And when Jobs is done with a Mac, throw away all the software, hardware and peripherals too.
I just threw away my $3600 circa-1992 25mHz Outbound Mac clone laptop that ran on Mac Plus ROMs together with the flattop Mac mouse that cost me $90 (!) in 1993 that Jobs, Inc later bragged cost less than $5 to produce….
I still have, in the garage, my SE30 with accelerator card running System 7 that fed an external 19″ B&W CRT.
We own two iPhone 4′s, but I’ve learned not to trust them with important information. I’m going blind surfing the wi-fi Flashless web.
May get an iPad yet, but certainly not a first-gen model, any more than I’d be happy with pre-iPhone4.
And let’s not forget the irreplaceable (literally) battery. That is just insulting. If there ever was a sign that Apple does not trust their minion to commanding their machines…
Not to worry, they just do that to play Apple stock short and then play it to rise just before he comes back.
Job’s latter day genius was borrowed from the hockey great Wayne Gretsky who famously quipped that he ‘skated to where the puck was going to be’. Apple’s modus operandi is to identify a market where their unique whole widget approach can give them an edge. It means saying ‘no’ a whole lot more than saying ‘yes’. It’s a brilliant strategy and even to this day, most of their competitors don’t get it. It also means that conventional focus group-driven product development doesn’t work well. Thats where the ‘vision thing’ comes in.
As for Android and Google, good luck to them but I don’t see them doing well over the long run. Follow the money folks. Apple is making it hand over fist. Google? Well they are doing well with their Ad-based revenue but they are not in the same league.
Apple can survive and flourish without Jobs but it won’t be easy.
DD
Everyone is getting Android’s business model wrong. The purpose of Android is not to make money. The purpose of Android is to prevent Apple from controlling the smartphone/tablet market and having leverage to squeeze Google out of ad revenue on those platforms. As long as Android is a good alternative to iOS and has enough market share to keep iOS from having effective monopoly control, Google makes its money from Ad revenue.
Android is insurance for Google AdWords, nothing else. And it is that subsidy that most threatened the iPhone in the long run. Apple has to make money from the iPhone. Google just has to make up its costs.
Astute observation. I’m told that the whole purpose behind GOOG-411 was to build their voice recognition software, and they ended the project when it had served its purpose. Google’s pretty good at thinking two or three steps ahead and wasting money productively.
Bingo!
Those who don’t “get it” don’t remember Netscape and IE…
As I see it, the primary weakness of the Apple home computer is that they don’t have the software library available to Windows PCs. The primary strength of the Apple portable devices is they have the biggest market of app software, as well as iTunes. The functionality gaps between Apple and Windows in the two regimes are almost a mirror image.
Inasmuch as the market maintains a desire for varied and complex software, Apple remains at a disadvantage. But if the market continues to tend toward online, mobile, and simple capability, they’re in good shape.
I would say that 95% – 99% of the Mac devotees have become devotees because they buy into all the marketing. Nothing wrong with that, I love capitalism! But most of them subsequently justify their devotion by pointing to an overall technological superiority. The problem is that this superiority exists only in their minds (and in the marketing material).
Every single word of Ken’s posts at #15 should be read over and over again by everyone who believes that Mac’s are in any way “better”, or “superior” to Win PC’s.
I’m a software engineer and I have absolutely no hate for Mac’s, just as I don’t have love for Win’s. They are tools, just like hammers and screwdrivers. I don’t love them, I just use them. I work on Win’s because that’s what the business requires, but I could (and did) program on Linux just as well.
As Ken said, the problems that so many experience with Win are primarily due to the myriad of 3rd party applications that are installed on Win’s. The security problems experienced by Win are due to its popularity. The bigger the honeycomb, the more flies it attracts. Believe it or not, even the ueber-geeky Linux has serious security issues at times.
This won’t convince the ones who stay in line all night for the next Apple product, but then I doubt that many of those hang out on PJM.
Two months ago I bought the first Apple product I ever paid money for: an iPod Touch 4th Generation, with the Retina touchscreen. It is all by itself the reason why my wife and I have iPhones on the way to replace our stupidphones.
I have at times considered foregoing the iPhone for an Android phone, but with my eyesight I need the sharpest resolution possible on that little screen.
If the makers of Android phones have equaled or surpassed Retina by the time our new AT&T contracts expire, I’ll consider them then. But only after considering whether Verizon’s iPhone deal is better than AT&T’s.
The resolution of the Retina display is well beyond your ability to discern any difference between it and a competing Android phone. It also eats processing and battery power.
Thank you for the free internet eye exam. I hope you don’t mind if I get a second opinion from someone who’ actually — oh I dunno — look at my eyes?
Hmm. Well, I’m a long time power PC user, but even I recognize the benefits of an Apple system.
I like tinkering, which is why I’m not a real Mac guy. But for ease of use, it’s tough to beat a Mac. And at the end of the day, what’s easiest to use is what usually wins. Eventually. If you’re not convinced, ask yourself why Windows 95 and Windows 7 each look so much like an Apple OS about 5-8 years older.
C’mon, guys. Apple Mac, now being based on linux, is really nothing but an Ubuntu with proprietary hardware hooks. Or maybe we could call it Android for Apple.
Is re-skinning linux the profit source of the future? I don’t think so. Even for Google.
Good point. See above.
If you’re not trying to make a profit directly from it, however, you can still kill your competition with your product. See IE vs. Netscape way back when the WWW was as new as the mobile space is today.
Also, see Apple’s own iPod line.
That’s the wildcard, I think. Where is the profit center, will consumers buy into it, and which model really works, long-term?
“Apple Mac, now being based on linux, is really nothing but an Ubuntu with proprietary hardware hooks.”
It would be hard for you to know less about the computer industry.
Bill Johnson really nailed it. With its Ubuntu imitation strategy, Apple just reported ” -record revenue of $26.74 billion and record net quarterly profit of $6 billion, or $6.43 per diluted share. These results compare to revenue of $15.68 billion and net quarterly profit of $3.38 billion, or $3.67 per diluted share, in the year-ago quarter. Gross margin was 38.5 percent compared to 40.9 percent in the year-ago quarter. International sales accounted for 62 percent of the quarter’s revenue.
Apple sold 4.13 million Macs during the quarter, a 23 percent unit increase over the year-ago quarter. The Company sold 16.24 million iPhones in the quarter, representing 86 percent unit growth over the year-ago quarter. Apple sold 19.45 million iPods during the quarter, representing a seven percent unit decline from the year-ago quarter. The Company also sold 7.33 million iPads during the quarter.”
Pretty good – if only Dell had thought of coming out with an Ubuntu knockoff they could have done this. And HP. And Gateway. And Lenovo. And Acer. How these companies are so stupid they didn’t just do this is stunning. But lookout – Bill Johnson Computers is soon to hit the market and this exciting new company with its strategy keyed around Ubuntu will destroy Apple. Keep a sharp eye out for BillJohnson Systems Computer (market symbol – BS)
Sounds like Ubuntu might want to try the Ubuntu imitation strategy too…
For a professional, the cost of hardware is irrelevant. It is the cost of making everything work, and keeping it working together. So the 50 cents that Dell or HP saves by changing a component can cost me thousands of dollars of my time. So I bought insanely expensive PC’s from Falcon Northwest, then Overdrive PC, to save money because of their reputations for using the best parts, getting them to work together and providing exemplary service. I spent about as much as it was possible to spend, since I found a PC ate up many thousands of dollars of my time. It did not work, I’m sorry to report.
And to the bullies who tell us to keep Norton up to date, I ask them what is the difference between Norton and a virus. Norton is a virus and slows everything down, and robs my time as well.
The Apple products I’ve bought sometimes need repair, but they tend to disappear, and just to work. The difference in user experience is just amazing. All the techies I know rail against Apple. But when I gave my old Mac Pro to my IT major daughter, who held her nose, she found it was an amazing machine for both Ubuntu and OS X.
Apple just thinks about technology in a beautiful and efficient way. I’m willing to pay for that.
Most people posting here don’t understand that the purpose of technology is to disappear and get out of the way. It’s supposed to help me, the user, not you…