This is it — the final countdown!
Sorry about that. But I’m still in shock that the Toss Up races have zoomed back up to 40. This close to D-Day is when the center should be emptying out to both sides, as voter preferences become clearer.
But this just isn’t that kind of year.
First, let’s look at the races that shifted to the left since we last checked in.The GOP is showing some weakness in the Midwest (IA01 & IA03) and in Pennsylvania (PA07 & PA11), where they are expected to make some big gains. Nobody is quite sure what’s going on in IA01, due to a lack of polling. And in IA03, Republican Brad Zaun has stumbled pretty badly in recent weeks. Both races went from Toss Up to Leans Dem. Data is thin in PA07, but I think the GOP’s Patrick Meehan will take this one — Pennsylvania’s districts aren’t as competitive as they could be for the Dems, thanks to the last round of redistricting. And PA11 slipped due to one pretty outlandish poll result. Both races went from Leans GOP to Toss Up, but I have them colored red on my private map.
Three other races exited the Tossers to Leans Dem. They are KY03, NH02 and NM01. All three are looking solidly blue to me, absent a wave even bigger than the one I’m expecting.
WA03 slipped from Leans GOP, but I honestly don’t know why. Jaime Herrera has held nice margins since August, but I’m not coloring it in yet.
And our last left-mover is FL25, from Likely to Leans GOP. No incumbent in this race, but I still like David Rivera’s chances. Enreddenate it already.
That’s nine left-movers — the most we’ve seen in a single week. Bad news for the GOP? Perhaps. But if so, then the Democrats have even worse news — only one of those seats (FL25) is currently held by a Republican and that one is likely to stay red. So the Donks are, at best, treading water.
And for the really bad news for the Democrats: A total of 16 races red-shifted — and every single one of them is currently a blue seat.