It’s time again for another installment of VodkaPundit’s semi-occasional Handicapping the House series. Lots of movement since we did the last one, about four weeks ago — most of it to the left. Let’s take a look.
As things stand today, the House is virtually tied — the Democrats would likely win 202 seats if the election were held today, the GOP 201. The remainder are just too close to call. What’s interesting is that out of 254 seats the Democrats now hold, only 149 are virtual locks. The GOP has a lock on all but ten of its 178 seats.
On the GOP side, there was zero movement, zilch. Not one Republican-held seat moved in either direction. Nobody firmed up in the polls, nobody got any softer. All the action was in the blue seats.
Six Democrats are looking slightly stronger. In GA2, John Barrow went from a Likely win to Safe. Honestly, this seat was never really in play. The district was redrawn a few years ago (much to the dismay of former GOP seat-holder Max Burns) to include more minorities and Democrats.
Two Toss-Up races now Lean Dem. Keep an eye on IA03. Supposed-Blue Dog Dem Leonard Boswell looks pretty secure — he won 56% of the vote in ’08. But his votes in favor of Porkulus, Cap & Tax and Obamacare could make him vulnerable. ID01 should be a gimme for the GOP. Big turnout in ’08 gave Walt Minnick a razor-thin win in a traditionally-GOP region that went almost two-to-one in favor of McCain-Palin.
Republican Jerry Weller retired after seven terms representing IL11, and Democrat Debbie Halvorson won big. She’s moved out of the Leans GOP column and into the toss up category. Same goes for Larry Kissell in NC08, who won by a better-than-expected margin last time around, and whose vote against Obamacare might buy him some protection.
And four Democrats are looking a little weaker since the last report.
NC07′s Mike McIntyre was supposed to have a Safe seat this year, but RCP’s poll averaging now shows him with “only” a Likely win. Guy’s been in office since 1997, and went against TARP — he’ll get reelected.
Former quarterback Heath Shuler is all over the place in NC11. In just a month, he’s gone from Leans Dem to Likely Dem then back to Leans Dem. He’s socially conservative and voted against Porkulus and Obamacare. This seat’s probably safe for the Democrats.
KY06 incumbent Ben Chandler beat the Bush Surge in ’04 to win his seat. He’s fairly socially-conservative, but has voted in lockstep with his party on everything but Obamacare. A credible GOP candidate should be able to take this one, as Chandler goes from Likely to Leans to… Oblivion, perhaps.
Lastly, NM01 had never elected a Democrat, but Martin Heinrich won pretty handily against GOP sheriff Darren White. He’s now in the Toss Up column, right one space from Leans Dem. But the region has been trending blue, and a couple years ago, The Hill selected Heinrich as the hottest person on Capital Hill. Might be enough to keep the seat.
Put it all together, and the situation going into November looks like this: Americans are sick of the Democrats already, but aren’t yet ready to trust the GOP again. And what I’m seeing out of the Washington crowd makes me think that the Republicans are counting almost exclusively on the former and ignoring the latter — to their own, great peril.
UPDATE: On Twitter, Nathan Wurtzel tells me that the latest SUSA poll shows Heinrich trailing by six points in NM01 to Jon Berela, who’s passed the magic 50% threshold. And NC11 is a tie. I think Cap & Tax has literally everybody in Appalachia spooked, and a Wurtzel rightly notes, Obama’s support has “collapsed” in the Rocky Mountain West.
Put it all together, and the situation going into November looks like this: Americans are sick of the Democrats already, but aren’t yet ready to trust the GOP again. And what I’m seeing out of the Washington crowd makes me think that the Republicans are counting almost exclusively on the former and ignoring the latter — to their own, great peril.
After Obama took office, my worst-case scenario was that he would be so bad that the Republicans wouldn’t feel the need to get their act together. Unfortunately that scenario looks like it’s happening.
The voters might decide to stick with the devil they know, i.e. the Democrats.
Afaic today’s Republicans, given their way, would wreck the country more slowly than the Democrats are doing. I wish there was a way to tell the GOP that I’m not supporting them this November: I’m supporting divided government.
Your comment makes no sense. “Supporting divided government” would entail voting for Republican candidates in November. Because in case you did not notice, the Democrats control both Congress and the White House.
What I think gs means is that he doesn’t want the GOP to get the idea that his vote for them is a vote for them, but merely a vote against the Democrats.
That’s my take. I think his comment makes perfect sense. It’s what I’ll be doing, and frankly what millions of Republican voters will be doing.
The Republican party served it’s purpose 140 years ago ending slavery. We need a new party on the right that is focused on limited government. For too long the Republicans have enriched themselves as entitlement pimps just like the democrats. GWB and Karl Rove expanded subsidizes for agricultural , green energy, pharmaceuticals and much more.
No Republican ever owned a slave again after leaving the Whigs and joining the GOP. We need a clean brake like that with Big government and entitlement pimps. The industrial revolution is long over and the information age is just getting started. Bloated government agencies and schools make no sense in an age of decentralized information and opportunity.
“Slight movement towards Democrats?” That’s not surprising. I think this cycle is going to go back and forth quite a bit but it is perhaps useful to point out that the tea party may have peaked too soon, a big no no in political strategery.
Politics, unfortunately, involves the choosing of the lesser of two evils. Perhaps Americans are beginning to realize that while the Democrats are far, far from perfect, the GOP is the greater of two evils. The only message we hear from them so far is a return to the policies of the Bush era and who wants that? No thanks. They have not articulated a plan to make things better. The only thing we hear from them is repeal this and saying no to that. This is not a governing strategy. Many may not like some of the things the Democrats have done but they do have a strategy and an agenda. Moreover, now that people are starting to learn how the health reform bill works, it isn’t so bad after all. I believe that most Americans will choose to stay the course rather than put the car in reverse and drive back into the GOP ditch we’re trying to climb out of, albeit slowly.
We all want the perfect candidate to run for office. Unfortunately, Jesus isn’t running this cycle.
There is a lot of wishful thinking in your comment, and some outright whistling past the graveyard. The Democrats’ healthcare bill is not gaining in support as time passes. And we are not climbing out of some “GOP” ditch, rather the Democrats fiscal irresponsibility has dwarfed any GOP irresponsibility by an order of magnitude. The habit of the Democrats of blaming Republicans for their own actions got old with the American people this year.
Yes, those Republican policies of low unemployment, lower taxes are just a killer.Obama’s policies have lost 8 million jobs,and ran up more deficits in a year and a half than Bush did in 8 years combined. So, your post was a lie, paid for by a gang of liars who pay you to contribute your lies to conservative websites. I guess you’ve been really busy, haven’t you?
Many are swept out to sea to perish simply because they refuse recognize or admit that they are caught in a riptide. When your whole economy has been caught in the eddy current of a financially destructive whirlpool for 99 years and one has finally refused to continue denial of increasing vortex spin , escaping the spin must be of the highest order of priority. Only then can one navigate toward a safe harbor. Neither party nor any single silver tongued orator leading the proud blind can get you back to the false security of one’s past.
The minority party simply tries to slow down the progression of the stumbling blind that halt any legislative push when passage is no longer guaranteed without going back to their bag of dirty tricks. Perhaps you have a more effective solution to deploy other than bailing a sinking ship with a kitchen strainer without first plugging the hole. Try and see who in your chosen party supports your chosen plug.
Just a passing observation from a civilian here in Phoenix. Looked at your map and see you have CD8 & CD5 in the toss up column. From my view here there is a general sense that both Kirkpatrick & Mitchell are running scared. Confidence is pretty high that republicans will take back both seats.
Paul Gosar (CD1) recently scored a Palin endorsement and has been ok if just ok when it comes to raising money. That should get much better w/Palin onboard once the primary is over.
David Schweikert is crusing to the nom – having easily survived a wild card entry by California Biz transplant Jim Ward. Wards attempt to ‘shop’ for a district as low hanging fruit to run in has blown up in his face and he has all but formally declared defeat.
Most importantly is that Ward’s (none of the others ever got ANY traction)long shot entry hasn’t appeard to dampen Schweikerts run – he has more money and support than he did for his run in ’08.
The story is more disappointing in CD8 – where both Kelly & Paton have basically been cannibalizing each other – money and otherwise. Hense I must agree that this district is leaning Giffords way. Besides this advantage, as well as favorable demographics, she undoubtably is the most capable of the Dem candidates.
Mitchell has basically been in hiding – and he doesn’t have squat to show for both terms. And Kirkpatricks appearances have been quite desperate – railing against Obama & Holder filing suit on SB1070.
The mood here is thus: should the Republicans fail to take back CD1 & CD5 then it would be considered a massive fail. NOBODY feels there is any threat for an upset in the seats now held – CD2, CD3, CD6. While most believed six months ago that we should get all three back for a renewed majority, holding five of the eight seats is now pretty much the expected consensus.
The long shot expectation here isn’t about taking down Gabby Giffords in CD8 anymore. It is about the prospect of Raul Grijalva possibly having over reached with his Boycott talk immediately after Brewer signed CB1070.
Besides driving all his colleagues fighting to win re-election batty, he breathed life into Ruth McClung campaign. She has been able to seperate herself via money and will actually have a shot at him in the general. Granted that is still about a 1000-1 long-shot given the demographics, but it should be interesting. Grijalva has never really had to defend himself and as the Boycott language proves he is naturally prone to foot in mouth syndrom.
He may have brought the perfect storm down on his own head; a combo of defecting latinos leaving the state coupled with an unexpected low turn out could translate what should be a 65% majority into a flatline – with the possiblity of McClung hanging her hat on scoring an upset off the true WILD CARD vote unique to Arizona – the Native American Reservation vote. It would be the congressional verson of winning POWERBALL.
Otherwise, with some 3 months to go, I would say Vodapundit has it on the money here.
#3. Praetorian
Perhaps Americans are beginning to realize that while the Democrats are far, far from perfect, the GOP is the greater of two evils. The only message we hear from them so far is a return to the policies of the Bush era and who wants that? No thanks. They have not articulated a plan to make things better. The only thing we hear from them is repeal this and saying no to that. This is not a governing strategy. Many may not like some of the things the Democrats have done but they do have a strategy and an agenda
The mindset you display with those words summarizes the essential political conflict that is coming to a boil. The Republicans do suck because their greatest sin is that they did not truly fight against the Democratic agenda. They were only focused on how fast we should get there. We’ll just slow it down a little bit.
The very fact that anyone has an “agenda” and a “plan” to “govern” is what many people are beginning to resent in a very serious way. The social engineer needs to go down the path of the dinosaur–to extinction, or at least holding up cardboard signs at street intersections that read “WILL WORK FOR FOOD.”
Laws should be reserved to enforce commonly held cultural beliefs, such as that people who rape or rob are entitled to be killed or incarcerated, and otherwise should be employed to create neutral “rules of the road.” It does not matter whether a nation decides to make it where you will drive on the right side of the road rather than the left. There is no value judgment there, but it is very important that all drivers accept the same standard. Other than that, let society evolve on its own without interference.
That is the true conflict. The social engineers versus their lab rats. May the lab rats prevail.
“The Republicans do suck because their greatest sin is that they did not truly fight against the Democratic agenda.”
I disagree with you on this. I think that whatever party you vote for you do so not only because they are fighting against the other teams agenda. The team you vote for has to be for something too. And if they are, they have to articulate it. If the GOP doesn’t like health care reform, for instance, then they should spell out in detail what they would like to replace it with in order to obtain a BETTER result, that being to insure more people so they can get good healthcare at a good price. As it stands now all we hear is repeal, etc. Most people interpret this as going back to the same system we had before, which most agree was no longer sustainable. Where is their plan? If their only purpose is to oppose, then that is the true functioning of a minority party and that is perhaps where they should stay.
Again, you still don’t get it. The conflict is not over WHICH retard you give the scalpel to to make a hole in you to remove the demons, its more about whether ANY retard should be issued a scalpel to cut on you.
‘f the GOP doesn’t like health care reform, for instance, then they should spell out in detail what they would like to replace it with in order to obtain a BETTER result, that being to insure more people so they can get good healthcare at a good price. ‘
The republicans have put forth several plans to deal with the minor tweaks US health care needed – mostly removing legislative barriers to open market insurance options. The fact that that doesn’t satisfy the portion of the mythical 16 million citizens – a number never once justified – who can already afford health care but choose not to pay for it may have flown in the face of the democrat spin, but that doesn’t make your statement true.
This information is out there and easily searched by anyone able to do a little critical thinking for themselves. I’ve told you this before, inform yourself or continue to beclown yourself.
Many are swept out to sea to perish simply because they refuse recognize or admit that they are caught in a riptide. When your whole economy has been caught in the eddy current of a financially destructive whirlpool for 99 years and one has finally refused to continue denial of increasing vortex spin , escaping the spin must be of the highest order of priority. Only then can one navigate toward a safe harbor. Neither party nor any single silver tongued orator leading the proud blind can get you back to the false security of one’s past.
The minority party simply tries to slow down the progression of the stumbling blind that halt any legislative push when passage is no longer guaranteed without going back to their bag of dirty tricks. Perhaps you have a more effective solution to deploy other than bailing a sinking ship with a kitchen strainer without first plugging the hole. Search YouCut and see who in your chosen party supports your chosen plug.
You political palmists are trying to justify your jobs. The Democrats are going to be pasted on every level of government.
And what justifies your political prognostication? Certainly, your crystal cow-patty doesn’t predict well for states like Ca. where both GOP flagship candidates will most likely go down to defeat.
‘And what justifies your political prognostication?’
This is a hoot. What justifies the political prognostications you make? Your real world experience on the college campus? Your track record predicting the outcome of the Mass senate race and the east coast governor’s races? How did those predictions work out for you?
You really haven’t got a clue and won’t until you get off the campus, get a job with an eye to it’s future potential and start paying by fiat for the legislation you think so apt when other people are paying for it.
As far as your student loans go – a subject you like to complain about – once again inform yourself or continue to beclown yourself. Look up what happened to college costs after the government decoupled costs from the market place by legislating that loan access not be subject to ability to pay. Find out who was in office when that happened. Apply a little critical thinking, recognize what political philosophy caused that and who’s fault it was, and then stop your b!tch!n about how much it will cost you.
There will be no change in Washington no matter which party is in charge of any of the three branches of government, UNLESS the Republicans, if elected in sufficient numbers in the fall to take either of the legislative chambers, grow some cajones and cut, slash and burn the outrageous government spending and let the people keep more of the money they EARN. This, in turn, will allow people to do the following: 1. Buy more consumer goods, including automobiles; 2. Buy new homes; 3. Start new businesses and hire employees; 4. Invest; and 5. Save, all of which are good for the economy. If, however, they fail to cut, slash & burn the spending, the only thing that will then change Washington is a major catastrophe, such as a collapse of the dollar, the stock market, another housing crisis, or some other economic calamity, whereafter the politicians will blame everyone except themselves, ala Bawney Fwank and Chris Dodd, and the people will finally be forced to throw the bums that caused the mess out of office, starting with Obama.
It doesn’t really matter who wins. America has already paid the toll for passage across the Styx. Balkanization is coming. The USA as a singular political entity may not even exist in 20 years’ time. No matter who wins, half the country is angry and dissatisfied. The true tipping point will be when, due to demographic trends, the Democrats finally drive a stake into the GOP’s heart and become the permanent party-in-power at the Federal level. The mathematically eliminated GOP base isn’t going to simply be dictated to for all eternity from that point forward (while still being expected to pay all the bills), not by a long shot. All bets will be off at that point.
This may be the 1st time Democrat Mike McIntyre in NC 7 has had a serious challenger. He voted with Pelosi 90 percent and his district is NOT doing well under Obamanomics. His challenger is a former Marine 2nd Lt (a big help in SE NC). He worked on wall street but became disillusioned with some of the streets excesses and rejoined the Military after 9/11. McCain carried the 7th district by 52 percent. If anyone read Micheal Barone’s article at RCP yesterday he has an interesting take on the Republicans structural advantage in House races. I like his chances along with Renee Ellmers here in NC 2. As for the notion that the Tea Parties have peaked too early time will tell. I think that their more important contributions have been or will be in the primaries. AS the primaries in NC are over the second phase of the TEA Party efforts will start to ramp up again as the elections near. I believe that this year is different and that the normal political calculations don’t apply this time. Did y’all know that in 1894 the Republicans gained 130 seats in the house? Can you smell it? There is something in the air.
I agree Adobe W. As for the observation on the Tea Party and those like T/Cook Report who talk about peaks and ebbs and such – I don’t think the experts have a clue as to the real effect this grass roots movement will have – there is nothing in our lifetime to remotely compare – so as much as I admire M. Barone I even take him warily. We really won’t know until this is all over in Nov.
This much is certain – all the hand wringing over the DNC out spending the RNC is a ruse – and here the Tea Party is a wicked wild card. People are motivated to put their money where their constitutional interests are – and aren’t limited to giving their twenty bucks just for who is running in their district. Besides Palin’s efforts both Carl Rove & Senator Jim DeMint are raising millions to throw into congressional districts they want to back.
Money will not be a problem, contrary to what the MSM is selling. It’s just coming in from a variety of diffent directions is all.
This is where people should be measuring the ‘Palin effect’; it isn’t just the total score of how many candidates she endorces gets elected, although it’s certainly important.
Equally important is how much money she helped raise FOR THE ENTIRE SLATE CHOSEN to run – that gives a ‘market value’ if you will on how much influence she is having. This also will undoubtably be part of the equation for her to decide if she will run in 2012.
After all it was how Obama ramroded into the white house in ’08 – MONEY RAISED (NEARLY A BILLION) & the grass roots ACORN folks getting out (and also manufacturing) the vote. Nobody saw the juggernaught he became coming either as I recall. It was more along the lines ‘he of course cannot take out Hillary’….until he did. And once he did he had a well oiled machine for the general against McCain.
By the way – I read a little of Richard Hofstadter (The American Political Tradition;& the men who made it@1948)recently – he devotes a chapter to the cycle (1894) you speak of – coming at the tail end of the period he refers to as ‘THE SPOILSMEN:An Age of Cynicism.’
Here is a quote that sums up what he outlines in detail; “One might search the whole list of Congress, Judiciary, and Executive during the twenty-five years 1870-1895, concluded Henry Adams, and find little but damaged reputation.”
It’s worth the read, given what we are dealing with under Obama & Pelosi. The chapter that follows the one mentioned above – which chronicals William Jennings Bryants rise – and the populists movements that rose out of the farmlands of the midwest & Kansas – struck me as most similar to what is happening with the Tea Party folks. Read Bryants ‘CROSS OF GOLD’ and think about the debt burden of middle class folks today and tell me there is no relevance.
The fervor with which otherwise everyday voters have taken to re-establish constitutional values/ethics is a direct challenge to what Obama represents – the credentialed plutocrat – the professional pol.
It, in my humble view, answers why he and the left are so afraid of Palin; She didn’t get an education (or a stamp of approvial) at an Ivy League school or a lib think tank. And she connects to every day folk. Victor David Hanson has done a crack job of saying this much better than myself in essays here at PJM.
In closing; I think we are looking at a 2 seat majority in the Senate and flipping 50+ in the house – in essense – a repeat along the lines of 1994 rather than 1894′s 130.
And like you said – IT SURE SMELLS GOOD!
That’s a fascinating historical take. Do you have any links you could share? I’ve been reading up on the 1905-1915 time frame, but the earlier period sounds interesting. I’d love to read more.
Sorry Jonk – can’t help with web links much. I’m an old fashioned bookstore & Library kinda trog – a very un-Kindle reader. But besides Hofstadter I highly recommend Jona Goldbergs LIBERAL FASCISM. He covers the period your interested in extensively – and his notes in the appendex are very detailed; enough references to keep anyone busy for years if they so chose.
This is one more reminder to every conservative to VOTE this November. These polls arent measuring passion and cant measure turnout. We know that the Dems will be stuffing the ballot boxes with phony votes wherever they can get away with it but since Republicans havent managed to turn themselves into lying, honorless, cheating scum like the Dems have we have to make sure to turn out and vote. Even a left-wing RINO is a vote against Pelosi and for Boehner as Speaker. No conservative who cares about our country can stay home this time. We have to defeat every Democrat we can.
Dogged determination to continue a total “fundamental change” has been well demonstrated by your employees in legislative, executive and judicial branches and their vast repertoire of dirty tricks will continue to be exposed in November. Looming immigration reform by executive order, ratification of the 51st state and race agitation are currently obvious.
Courts backlogged by voter fraud cases should encourage more putrid appointees. Lame duck activity can certainly be expected with lavish retirement plans intact since most prefer to remember their performances on TV rather than their cemetery plots. MAKE PLAN “B”, “C”, etc.
Last week Gallup, cantradicting all the other polls, showed the Dems anead by 4 in the generic poll, but this week the Reps are ahead by 5 in that same poll.
What was “mister Gallup” smoking?