Handicapping the House
We’ve got some new numbers from Real Clear Politics. When we did this the first time a couple weeks ago, I told you to look for blue seats (Democrats) shifting red (Republicans). Well, it’s happening already. And in a big way.
On April 7, Delaware’s at-large seat (held by the Republicans now) was considered a Likely Dem pickup, but as of yesterday it’s slid over to the Leans Dem column. But — get this — 16 other Likely Dem seats, currently held by Democrats, have done the exact same thing. Virtually overnight, CA-18, CO-7, CT-5, FL-2, IL-8, IN-2, MI-9, NC-11, NC-8, NJ-3, OR-5, TN-4, TX-23, WI-3, WI-7, and WV-3 all became a little tougher terrain for the Donkeys to climb.
Also shifting right, from Leans to Toss Up, were CA-11, IL-11, MO-4, OH-13, OH-16, PA-3, SC-5, SD-AL and WV-1.
FL-22 and HI-1 both shifted two spaces, from Likely D to Toss Up.
And, shockingly, NY-20 and PA-10 appeared out of nowhere from No Contest to merely leaning Dem.
That’s a huge movement in under 14 days. The Democrats now have 32 seats to lose, and only one to gain, from the middle of the polls. And their list of likely seat took a huge hit.
So how is the GOP doing on the right side of the page? Hey, this is a zero-sum game — each inch the Democrats lose is one the Republicans gain. But let’s get specific.
CA-44, FL-12, and OH-2 (all held by the GOP now) have moved off the board and into No Contest territory. CO-4, NV-3, OH-15, PA-11, TX-17, VA-5, tossups last time, have all shifted one spot right into Leans GOP.
We have six Democratic seats that bucked the trend. AR-1, FL-8 & PA-12 shifted left into Toss Up. And IL-14, MN1 & PA-17 went from Toss Up to Leans Dem. LA-2 still looks like a sure Democratic pickup, but Joseph Cao’s election two years ago was one of those accidents so freakish, it sometimes results in a mild-mannered nobody gaining superpowers.
Overall, six seats shifted one to the left, but not a single one into the Likely Democrat zone. The Democrats likewise made no gains in the No Contest area. And — brace yourself — 39 seats moved right. And of those 39, two of them shifted two places to the right, and two more shifted by three. More worrisome to the Democrats should be all the movement in the PA, OH, and FL. Republicans had been getting clobbered in those states in recent years. Resurging in Obama’s territories should certainly end all talk about the GOP being a “regional party.”
What should also worry the Democrats is that the number of No Contest Republican seats is climbing, while the Toss Up section is filling up — almost entirely with Democrats. Those two facts together give the GOP an edge in spending choices they haven’t seen in at least three election cycles.
Polling data this far out isn’t all that good, and the GOP still seems determined in a lot of cases to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory — but we’ll talk about Charlie Crist and the NRSC another day.
UPDATE: Wow, these numbers move quickly. The screenshot (and figures) I used this morning were from yesterday’s RCP map. Since just then, MI-1 appeared out of nowhere to become a Toss-Up. NJ-12 and WI-8 both shot into the Leans Dem, also from No Contest.
And, very troubling to our progressive friends, IL-17, MA-6, ME-1, MS-4, NC-2, OK-2, TX-27, UT-2 and WA-9 are all now in play, even if only barely.
All in all, that’s another 12 seats the the Democrats need to defend. Big day for the GOP.
I think it’s time the EPA put Blue Dogs on the endangered species list.
ANOTHER UPDATE: To Rich, who asked in the comments, Intrade’s prediction market looks like this right now:
GOP control is currently trading at around 45, up from 15 when President Obama was sworn in last year. Trading is pretty light, but you can expect that to change.
Wow, now if the GOP started supporting things like smaller government, less debt (without raising taxes), and more personal freedom, that might even be a good thing!
However, I predict “meet the new boss, same as the old boss.”
watch VA-09. There are 6 candidates vying for the GOP nomination, plus an Independent..
all lined up to unseat 28 yr. incumbent Rick Boucher who flew in the
face of the local coal industry by voting for Cap & Trade. Add to that an
endorsement for Boucher by pro-abortion NARAL and there’s a good chance the voters in
conservative southwest Virginia (McCain got 59% of the vote, McDonnell got %66) will
finally send Rick home.
http://www.swvapost.com/
I agree. The trouble with all this is that you can’t defeat democrats without electing republicans and republicans are congenitally averse to getting elected.
That’s because they’re congenitally averse to doing the right thing when they get elected!
A recently released Pew Research Center poll states that 4 out of 5 Americans do not trust their government. Only two other times since 1950 was the percentage of distrust higher, from 1978-1980 and 1992-1995. What is the common denominator of these three periods of history?…..Democrat president and Democrat-controlled congress. Surprised? I’m not, as I remember each of the previous eras distinctly, and both (as now) featured out-of-control governments attempting to ram leftist policies and legislation down the throats of Americans. Other facets of previous Democrat administration that parallel our present government include:
1. massive increases in social programs and spending
2. blatent cronyism and amateur-hour cabinet ministers/White House staff
3. disoriented foreign policy
4. radical leftist judicial appointments
5. huge tax increases
6. high rates of unemployment
7. economic downturn
But Republicans Party insiders had better wipe the perma-grins off their faces and recall why Democrats are in power. Many Republican moderates and aisle-crossers deserve to shoved out the door alongside the Democrats. Voters are in no mood for status quo politicians owned by special interests, be those interests big business or big labor. We want small-government conservatives…and we’ll keep sending elected officials home until we get them.
Yeah, but what is the line in Las Vegas? I am sure they are making book on the 2010 Mid-Terms.
Mid terms are known for the party in power losing seats. I do not think this year will be any different. Also, this may come as a shock, but I think that 05 to 08 were the years of anything that is “not the same thing” to get voted in. They were good years for those not in power. And with politics being cyclical like most other things, I believe that after this years mid terms things will settle. So those that want the “left over change” thingy should pack all their salt for the horse races this year and “git while the gittin is good”. Good Luck to those that run for office !
This is like the Democrats declaring that since both Bush and Obama ran deficits why are Republicans complaining.
It’s not just the direction, it’s the volume.
The party in power normally loses a few seats in off year elections. This is looking like a lot more than a few.
“I think it’s time the EPA put Blue Dogs on the endangered species list.”
There is no such thing today as a Democratic Party legislator who has any real power—and is also sensible on economic matters! This individual leads a marginalized existence. At most, they can be useful as photo ops to help Nancy Pelosi burnish her phony moderate image.
Looks more and more like Dick Morris will be proved correct…50 House Seats going to Republicans!
Now only if the Senate can follow! Say, can you handicap the Senate as well? Good article.
Obama, Pelosi, and Reid have made the strategic decision to react to the shifting political winds by cramming through as much of the Left’s agenda as possible before the election. Reid is willing to risk his own seat, Pelosi will risk her majority, but Obama may be hedging by planning a Clintonesque reelection campaign, hoping his most egregious sins will dim in memory as we right wingers go back to our NASCAR and chaw terbakky before 2012.
The public reaction to their doubling down is quite predictable, and will continue. The time is also growing short to show any economic growth to the voters, as there is typically a lag of at least six months between the actual growth and when the public perceives and believes it.
“Obama may be hedging by planning a Clintonesque reelection campaign”
I don’t think so. I think he will just pout for two years. Then he can just….go away!
“MA-6…now in play, even if only barely.”
I’m just chomping at the bit to see if MA-4 moves from Shoo-In to Leaning (that’s Bawney Fatman’s district).
#9 — in order to take over the Senate, the GOP needs to:
1) sweep the strong potential pickup states: Delaware, North Dakota, Arkansas, Nevada, Indiana.
2) hold the GOP seats in Missouri, Ohio, and New Hampshire
3) win the following toss up states: Illinois, Colorado, Pennsylvania, AND 2 of the following 3: California, Wisconsin, Washington.
The latter step is the hardest. The only Republican who can win in Washington, Dino Rossi, still hasn’t jumped in, the best GOP candidate in Wisconsin announced he isn’t running, and the GOP candidates in California are a very lackluster bunch, especially on the fundraising side
Nope… Boxer is TOAST in California! Obama just came here and gave her the “kiss of death” a la New Jersey, VA, and MA. The governor’s race actually will HELP defeat Boxer as people are NOT fired up to elect Jerry Brown again. We have HAD IT with Boxer! I’ve even seen a “Vote ABB-Anybody But Boxer” sticker.
And I think Washington or Wisconsin will also pull a win for Republicans. There’s still time.
MI-1 is Bart Stupid’s District, no surpise why that one just changed color so rapidly.
20 net leaning right plus half the tossups gives them 36 seats, they only need 40 for control, and the momentum is clearly to the right.
Senate will be trickier, they’ll get big gains but probably not enough to control.
I know Calif very well. The voters are just plain stupid. Don`t expect much change, if any. Voters here are very self-centered and will not pay attention come November. If they bother to vote at all they will pull the switch for the most familiar name which is their current democrap rep.
The state is lost forever. There`s no getting it back. It`s too far gone. Those who can leave will and those who can`t will suffer. Changing the laws for the better will not work either because the liberal judges are in place and will overturn anything that smacks of less gov`n involvement
Well, let’s just get it over with and push CA into the ocean. Then, if someone tries to sell you an oceanfront lot in NV, take ‘em up on it!