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That’s One Big, Swinging… Election

January 18, 2010 - 6:06 pm - by Stephen Green

Another hour, another poll. This one doesn’t cover the whole state, but it’s telling:

Republican Scott Brown appears to be pulling away from Democrat Martha Coakley on the eve of Tuesday’s special election in Massachusetts, according to polls released Monday.

A Suffolk University poll of three “bellwether counties,” conducted Saturday and Sunday, showed Brown with leads of 17, 16 and 14 points in Peabody, Gardner and Fitchburg counties, respectively.

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“There’s nothing totally certain, but all of the indicators are leaning strongly in Brown’s favor,” David Paleologos, director of Suffolk University’s Political Research Center in Boston, told The Daily Caller.

To give you a little extra perspective, Peabody went almost 58% for Obama in 2008, Gardner gave him 60%, and Fitchburg 61%.

You don’t get turnarounds that quick in a MacDonald’s drive-thru.

UPDATE: FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver is one of the smartest handicappers around (despite his own handicap of being a committed lefty), and I rely on his wisdom quite a bit. Despite pooh-poohing those Pajamas Media polls a couple days ago, even Nate has now seen the light.

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5 Comments, 5 Threads, 1 Trackbacks

  1. 1. frank martin

    Waiter, take this finski over to the bandleader and see if he and the boys can play “Beginning to see the light” By Bobby Darin.

    January 18, 2010 - 8:50 pm   Link to this Comment
  2. 2. zombyboy

    I’m a skeptic by nature, so I’m waiting to see how this can all fall apart. It’s hard to not feel a bit of optimism, though.

    January 18, 2010 - 9:52 pm   Link to this Comment
  3. 3. Papa Ray

    I wonder if the pollsters gave any points to the dirty tricks teams that are fanning out all over MA as we type. They have managed to pull the votes out of their trick hat for many elections and I don’t see them failing on this very important one.

    Also they are forcasting bad weather for the election. I’m wondering who will stay in?

    The young kids or the old folks?

    Papa Ray

    January 18, 2010 - 10:33 pm   Link to this Comment
  4. 4. richb313

    In less than 24 hours the voting will be over. How long the count takes and the announcement of a winner is another story. I hope that Mr. Brown has enough volunteers to be poll watchers during the counting phase. It just isn’t Democrats I do not trust but any machine backed politician and it is the Machine who put the Democrat candidate on the ballot.

    January 18, 2010 - 10:53 pm   Link to this Comment
  5. 5. Mike

    It ain’t over till it’s over…
    and unfortunately the Democrats will be counting the votes. Also the polls do not reflect the preference of the dead voters and those tend to swing Democrat…

    January 19, 2010 - 7:45 am   Link to this Comment

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