Good Question
Bob Novak sees the Bradley Effect helping John McCain in November, no matter who wins the Democratic nomination:
If there really is a Bradley Effect in 2008, Zogby sees November peril ahead for Obama in blue states. John McCain is a potential winner not only in Pennsylvania but also Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota, and can retain Ohio. But there seems no way Clinton can overtake Obama’s lead in delegates and the popular vote. For unelected super-delegates to deprive Obama of the nomination would so depress African-American general election votes that the nomination would be worthless. In a year when all normal political indicators point to Republican defeat on all fronts, the Democratic Party faces a deepening dilemma.
Of course, Novak is quoting Zogby, which is always a perilous endeavor. Nevertheless, this should be a landslide year for the Democrats — and in fact I think it will be in the Senate, and maybe the House, too. But what does it say about a party that has every advantage, including two ideally representative candidates to choose from… neither of whom is exactly positioned to win?
Steve, I have some questions and thoughts around this comment from you above:
“Nevertheless, this should be a landslide year for the Democrats — and in fact I think it will be in the Senate, and maybe the House, too.”
I’m not saying I disagree (in fact, if I were betting even money, I’d bet that way), but I’m not sure I’m fully comfortable with it either. The massive swing last November was very indicative of the general public being tired of a hypocritical, bloated Republican Party who had stuffed themselves on pork, yet managed to maintain their preening moralism that so many independents and centrist Democrats hate. President Bush, but for changing command to Petreaus in Iraq (and admittedly, it was a big one even if too late), has been an even bigger failure.
So, yes, all signs point towards the Democrats gaining momentum by default.
However, look at this Democratic Congress. It goes beyond incompetent to ridiculously moronic. In less than a year, they managed to find an approval rating lower than the a President who hasn’t seen a lower approval rating since Truman. And they deserve it with their spectacularly bad performance.
Many of us were hoping that we’d get a decent candidate running for President to give us some hope through this mess, but both parties demonstrated that their respective pipelines were really thin. Someone who is ideologically, intellectually and rhetorically capable of leading our country through some really tough times is clearly not someone who can be found in the establishment.
I think there is just a frustration with the government in general. How this will translate in the general election, I’m not really sure. Where is the real opportunity here? Both of these parties are ripe to the thrown out on their collective butts.
Then again, maybe I’m just projecting my cranky independentness on things.
I think you’re wrong about Congress if Hillary wins. Hillary excites the R base, and depresses the D base. If she get’s the nomination, the Dems in competitive House and Senate races are in big trouble.
True, the Dems have “ideally representative candidates”.
At this moment in time however, doctrinaire Marxists are going to have a tough time getting elected.