Late Night Rambling
March 20th, 2006 - 11:32 pm
Pretend for the next couple of minutes that you are the dictator of Russia. That’s not a huge stretch; lots of guys have had the job before you. Your nation faces ecological ruin, declines in birthrates, health, and longevity, financial uncertainty, an intractable war in Chechnya, and a national culture ill-suited to the modern world.
What would you do?
The environmental damage caused by your Communist predecessors isn’t going to get fixed without a lot of time and even more cash. But with a shrinking population, time is short
The answer is to sell most of the eastern provinces to the Chinese, Japanese and Koreans. Gather as many slavs as possible from the sold areas and other places in eastern europe. lead a moral and physical individual level renewal movement.
zero percent tax rate for manufacturing industries.
100% foreign ownership allowed.
15% flat tax on personal income.
Shrink the military.
Continue to sell the weapons though…why the hell not?
Robert is soooooo close to the correct answer, but not quite there. The answer to all of this is really rather simple and I’ve been saying it since the collapse of communism; sell Siberia to the U.S.
We’re the only country in the world with the know-how and capital necessary to develop Siberia’s vast resources. In addition, we could sure use ‘em too. Buy Siberia people, the solution to a lot of problems.
We could call it “Pursuit’s Folly”.
Would it really be that good of an idea for the US to have a several thousand mile long border with China?
BTW Aaron: the flat tax on incomes in Russia is currently 13%. (Though the actual tax burden is quite a bit higher because most commodities have hefty sales taxes, on the order of 15%).
Hi from Russia with… Guys it seems to me your arrogance, or should I rather say complacency, caused by full stomach and equally full illiteracy in the Russian history, is quite representative. Before trying to tease out a mote from a Russian eye wouldn’t it better to have a look at a mirror?
I was just wondering; why Putin has such prominent rings around his baby blues? Then it suddenly downed at me; your blog must be his bed time reading.
it looks like Russia is doing two things. The first goal is obvious. By subverting its neighbors, buying off China, and crushing Chechnya, Russia is doing all it can to maintain her territorial integrity.
He doesn’t need to.
Russia, even now, possesses one of the two MAD-capable nuclear arsenals on the planet. Russia’s territorial integrity is assured, no matter what condition it’s conventional military is in… and if anyone doubts that Putin would pull the trigger, remember that the man is a former head of the KGB. You don’t get that job by being a wuss.
When the old ideology is discredited, you come up with a new one. The Chinese seem to have replaced communism with nationalism, the Russians with greed.
The real question is what is going to replace greed. Nostaligia for the old days isn’t enough- pretty much everyone knows communism doesn’t work, and I doubt greed and corruption are going to be a long-term solution to Russia’s problems.
I’m more concerned by the historical precedents than anything else- it’s quite possible that something could happen in Russia that would make Iran a historical footnote.
Russia could buy an enormous amount of time, if they would nuke their Islamic neighbors.
Interesting. But…
If Putin is pursuing this course:
Why antagonise the Islamists by continuing to bear down on Chechnya and attempting to dominate the Caucasian & Central Asian Muslim-majority former-Soviet republics?
Why co-operate at all with the US anti-Islamist project?
I would also question some of the premises:
Russian economic growth 1998 to end 2005 averaged about 6.5% per annum. And industrial production around 4%.
Not too shabby.
If Putin can sort out the problems of the legal system/business law/corruption/gangsterism and a bureaucracy that combines sloth, inefficiency and predation, then the wealth generated by natural resources can fund industrial reconstruction and education/training improvements. Once that happens foreign direct investment is likely to increase.
And the demographic crisis can be attacked if the economy is restructured.
The main cause of the demographic crisis severity is a catastrophically high abortion rate; and the main cause of that looks to be that costs of even one child push families into poverty, especially families dependent on unskilled workers wages.
Imagine what would happen to the demographics in any Western country dumped into the 1930′s overnight but with modern attitudes, aspirations and medical capability.
Sustained economic growth can address this. Especially if combined with reform to reduce state-dependancy and ensure that where the state does operate it can and will do so effectively e.g. basic health, environmental improvement, and pro-natalist child welfare programmes.
Granted, that’s a tall order anywhere, let alone in Russia; but it’s more viable than relying on the good-will of Islamists.
And one big reason I think the Russian people will never go for a dhimmitude policy?
As you say the Golden Hoard: historical memory is long in Russia. Russian know what dhimmitude was like; the “Tartar Yoke” is still remembered with loathing; and the 16th through the 19th century wars with Muslims are also likely to have continued resonance.
Personally, I suspect Russian policies have three potential sources:
1) A general temtation to poke the US in the eye (something lots of countries like to indulge in).
2) Raising the price for cooperation: Russians always negotiate hardball-style.
3) Concerns about the Chinese adverse reaction to finding Russia aligning with America.
4) Need to keep the currently viable high-tech manufacturing sectors (includes arms, nuclear plant) going while working toward generalised high-tech expansion.
In the previous century two great underestimations were made in regards to war. One was the U.S. and the other was the Russia. The U.S. was thought too soft to fight and the Russian where too backward.
Lessons from the Previous Century 1
Never make the mistake of underestimating what the Russians can and will do. Those who do are eventually destroyed. Russia may be a backward nation, but Russians are not a backward people.
Russia will rise up from its fail social experiment called communism and become a nation as great as its people, possible in our lifetime.
That is, if you’re not over fifty, your post has merit.
I have not read all the commentary, nor the whole piece.
NO WAY is Putin preparing for DHIMMITUDE.
One thing stamped into my brain when I got my undergraduate degree in Russian was that Mother Russia and the Muslim heathens to the south are INCOMPATIBLE. Whether it was Orthodox Christian Russia (the 3rd Rome as they call Moscow) or the Atheist COmmunist USSR, Russia and Islam are oil and water.
Man, Steve. Drink less Martinis or get a batter gin. {grin}
By standing by Iran and by standing against the US, it seems possible that Putin is preparing the Russian Federation for dhimmitude.
Steve, I thought you made some interesting points in this post, but this one seems off the rocker. A better explanation is that Russia still sees itself as a great power (and given its land mass, nuclear arsenal, natural resources, and military-industrial base, there’s a small grain of truth to it), and continues to look at the US as a geopolitical rival to be countered.
With the US counting Iraq, Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Turkey, and every Gulf sheikdom among its Middle Eastern allies, Iran and Syria are all that Russia really has in the region. Thus it’s no surprise that the Russians will reflexively defend both of them against the US, even if they aren’t crazy about some of their actions (such as Iran’s nuclear weapons program).
One thing stamped into my brain when I got my undergraduate degree in Russian was that Mother Russia and the Muslim heathens to the south are INCOMPATIBLE.
Yeah, I know, but I can’t figure out why the Russians are helping those barbaric muslim heathens to the south enrich uranium.
What the hell are they thinking?
Steve,
What you are suggesting is like burning the village in order to save it. Russia has no intention of being subordinate to anyone, ever.
If there is any plan behind this, it is not to ally with Islam, it is simply intended to weaken us.
Putin is doing what all russian leaders do. he isstealing all he can while he can. then he moves to the west and send his kids to yale.
–pretty much everyone knows communism doesn’t work,–
Oh, I wouldn’t go that far. It’s not the ideology that’s flawed, it’s just the right people weren’t in place.
Buy Siberia and boost immigration from Europe.
Relocate a few prisons there, too.
I think it is less that Putin is preparing for dhimmitude, and rather that he’s looking to be on the anti-US side — if they win. Otherwise it is “we were on your side the whole time, USA).
Russia’s got a few thousand nukes, and even if a new Caliphate threatens Russia, the Russians will have no scruples about nuking the whole lot of them.
That’s what I have always respected, and well, liked, actually, about the Russkies. You knew, YOU KNEW, that if you messed with them, you were very highly likely to get a response that would be wholly disproportional, and quote, international outcry, end quote, be damned. You always had that in the back of your mind. Straying 747 passenger jet? No problem, blast it out of the sky, don’t care who it belongs to or who’s on it.
They obviously still have that capability, and until they don’t only the absolutely bat-shit crazy Wing of Islam will take them on. You never hear OBL damning the Russkies do you? He’s a lot of things, but he’s not stupid. He knows that the USA has to be dhimmified before he can even dream of tackling the Russian bear. I would go so far as to say that the average Russkie, with their experience with Communism still so fresh on their collective (sorry ’bout that, couldn’t come up with a different word…heh) mind, knows how good we in the west have it, and also knows that we in the west, by and large, do not fully realize that ourselves.
surf-actant
To understand Putin’s actions, does one need to look much further than oil price manipulation ? High oil prices give Russia a huge influx of cash. Something they have been desperate for, for so long. If you admit that a high oil price is in Russia’s best interest. Then is there a better way to ensure it, than by playing the Iran Nuclear card ? In general Mideast unrest = more cash for Putin to spend. Why look to the shadows when the answer is obvious. To me, by this logic: Russia would want a belligerent Iran, however they would not want to go so far as to push into an Iranian takeover by the US, or overthrow from within Iran. That could spoil the oil party. Therefore expect Russia to support Iran in its belligerence. Russian only loses from it’s position today if the unrest eases. I would expect Russia to use there decades of cold war experience in manipulation to continue to stoke enough mid east violence to keep the cash coming in.
” The first goal is obvious. By subverting its neighbors, buying off China, and crushing Chechnya, Russia is doing all it can to maintain her territorial integrity. While you might not agree with Putin’s means (and I certainly don’t), you can hardly fault his desires.” – Stephen
I can fault them. National preservation as a primary principle isn’t noble or praiseworthy. As a secondary principle, perhaps to further greater ideals, it might rarely have some merit.
“Would it really be that good of an idea for the US to have a several thousand mile long border with China?”
Hey! Halliburton vs. The Chinese Economic Engine! That would be a PPV must buy!
I do feel the need to chime in here.
Russia is simply trying to assert itself as a global leader and “superpower”.
Although V. V. Putin can be viewed and reported as the next coming of the tsar in our ever-studious media, you have to take both recent and past history to explain Russia’s position.
Under Putin, most (but not all) of the quality of life indeces that you mentioned with regard to Russia are actually CLIMBING, as is real income, education levels, and national self-worth. This follows the decline of these in the 1990s following Jeffery Sach’s brilliantly stupid advice to immediately open the markets.
Russia once had an immense sphere of influence in the world, which deteriorated in the run-up to and following perestroika and glastnost’. They are simply seeking to assert themselves in the political arena again and regain “superpower” status.
Putin interfering with Yukos/throwing Khodorkovskiy in jail… heavy handed government interference? Yes. Legitimate action to control and limit the power of the few new oligarchs over the business, policy, and economy in Russia? Yes. Successful? Yes.
The problem with American thinking in regards to Russia is this: We can’t fathom that a nation that looks white and caucasian (but contains well over 20 different identified cultures, not all white) can have drastically different political realities than we do.
The Russian public is willing to accept a stronger head of government than many in the west. Russia is not west, nor is it east. Russia is Russia, and unless one views Russia on its own merits without any biases or schemas, it is impossible to accurately guage its foreign and domestic policy.
The long-term goal of Russia and the thing that held them back from the world for so long (okay, one of the things) is their lack of a warm Winter port. Global warming might provide one in a decade or so, but for now, the best options are China (with its huge shipping companies), North Korea (with its desperation for, well, anything economic), and Iran (which probably makes Russia nervous, but they’ve got ships on the Gulf).
Buy Siberia? Man, there’s no end to the Bridges to Nowhere we could build there.
But seriously, I’ve got to agree with wanderer. Unrest in the Middle East is oil money in the bank for Russia. No need to look for a more complicated explanation for their behavior.