Handicapping
September 22nd, 2005 - 8:22 am
Larry Sabato is already handicapping the 2006 Senate race:
The long and short of this analysis: Democrats have only a long-shot chance at Senate takeover, and they are short of opportunities to make it happen. Of course, if 2006 turns into a Democratic 1994, then even our mind-stretching list of upsets and perfect-D luck is a possibility. It’s too early to tell, but we wouldn’t bet on it, and we advise you not to bet on it either!
Read the whole thing, especially the part on gubernatorial races.
The best part of it for me is discovering that Larry S. is down with the Wu.
If the Democrats do take control in 2006, it will be via a route the Republicans did not use in 1994. The Republicans mostly gained seats by winning open seats. Only two sitting Democratic senators lost that year. (I’m happy to say that the hack Jim Sassar in my home state was one of them.)
In 2006, the Republicans are only defending one open seat so far – Bill Frist’s in Tennessee, which ironically is the seat lost by Sassar in 1994.
I’m not saying the Democrats can’t do it, because the Republicans seem to have turned into bumblers at a rate much faster than Democrats did when they were in power. But it will be an uphill fight, and they’ll have to defeat several incumbents to do it.