Late Night Rambling
Here’s a head-scratcher from the New York Times:
A sudden and mysterious drop in China’s oil consumption helped to push down the International Energy Agency’s estimate on Wednesday of global demand for this year.
After growing 11 percent in 2003 and 15.4 percent last year, China’s overall oil use declined 1 percent in the second quarter from the comparable quarter a year earlier, the agency said.
If China’s economy really has stalled, then it’s time to move an Aircraft Carrier Battle Group or four just east of Taiwan. Let me explain.
In a mature, liberal-market economy like ours, the economy grows because people do things they want to do, and enough of us do those things profitably to keep things movin’ on up. Our government profits only to the extent that if feels safe spending our tax money.
In an immature, post-Communist economy like China’s, the economy grows because the government has decided to let people be just free enough to do a few approved of things to keep things humming. That government profits to the extent that if forestalls the inevitable collapse, be it economic or political.
Of course, in unfree countries, political and economic collapse generally go together like Mao and little red books. And that’s pretty much my whole point here.
China’s communist leadership wants to have it both ways. They want the power (and money) that results from freedom. They also want the power (and more power) that comes from having, well, power.
In a mature, multiparty nation like ours, when things turn sour we can turn the bastards out. In an immature, single party nation like China
Well, let’s hope we don’t get Sunburned…
nice post,
a similar force is at play in this matter as helped make the GD the worst depression the US ever faced….
what makes the free market dynamic is the near infinite amount of personal wealth acquisition solutions she allows, as one concentrates more and more of the command of gaming and executing such solutions into fewer and fewer hands the impact of errors in judgement gets magnified.
Red China will be in severe trouble when her bubbles finally burst for the reasons you have mentioned.
I read recently at StrategyPage that the Taiwanese have been a little too thrifty in stocking up on all sorts of ammo; everything from anti-aircraft missles to plain ol’ bullets. Their thinking has been that they have enough to bide them over ’til the cavalry arrives.
It may we wise for Rice or Rumsfeld to give some friendly advice to the contrary. The cavalry will certainly be sent, but the first three days, and certainly the first week, will be critical in such a scenario. The communists will certainly try to present the U.S. with a fait accompli. This is an area where a large margin of error is preferred.
you’ll be happy to know that only 25% of the navy is currently deployed.
On the other hand, if they want to invade somewhere to keep the local proletariat preoccupied, they could invade North Korea, and we would probably pay them to do it.
It’s got a wonderful ‘Catch -22 Lt. Milo Minderbinder’ feel to it doesnt it?
I thought they were beginning to export oil????
And ‘lil kimmee’s coming to the table, too.
On the other hand, if they’re running out of money to buy oil, and want to invade someone to distract the people *and* get oil, Indonesia is just down the block.
…and China has been building a whole new fleet of open-ocean large landing ships for amphibious invasions. Plus a lot of big container ships (crewed by the PRC Navy), and the unloading facilities for them (which the PRCN also crews).
Then, of course, there’s the Siberian oil fields a bit to the north.
I think China has learned that wealth in today’s world comes from trade not invading another country and taking slaves.
Maybe they’ve put some nuclear power plants online? There are a lot of other maybes. What do they have to gain by invading Taiwan?
As I read a commentator discuss a couple of months ago, the Chinese are probably more afraid of our LA and Seawolf subs than the Aircraft Carrier battlegroups. Our Aircraft Carriers can be shot at with long-range missiles or even tactical nukes.
OTOH, China is almost a net importer of oil now, and there’s no way that they can fight our subs in the open water. If we sink every tanker of theirs in the Indian Ocean, they have no way right now to stop it, unless you count shutting down the flow of goods to Wal-Mart as a valid war technique.
TO: Stephen Green
RE: When…
…is the last time you read Red Storm Rising?
It’s hardly likely that China’s economy is ‘stalling’.
Rather, it’s more likely that they are stock-piling their mobility fuels against a major need, i.e., restriction of supplies due to going to war.
This is what an intell puke would call a major indicator that something is in the offing.
Coupled with everyone’s ‘sudden awareness’ that China is building up it’s military in a very significant manner, [Note: Somethine I've been noticing since July '99] it makes for an interesting combination of indicators.
The exact meaning could be better discerned by people with more information. But to me, it doesn’t look ‘good’ for Taiwan. And our naval forces in the area should start being extra aware of what is going on around them.
Regards,
Chuck(le)
[How does it feel to be living in a Clancy novel?]
Chuck, that was my first impression too.
I figured they had slowed up stockpiling. Now that I think about that, that’s even scarier than Stephen’s take as it makes an attack much more imminent.
My second thought was that maybe they have been trying to drive up the cost of oil to mess with our economy and they ran out of money to do it.
China has no scruples with no real limit on their actions. They openly acknowledge that we are their enemy. Is it a far stretch to say that they will try to manipulate the markets to hurt us?
I still hope we have a few nukular subs roaming the South China Sea and the rest of the Pacific around Taiwan, Japan and South Korea. I don’t trust commies.
TO: Veeshir
RE: Other Possibilities
“…maybe they have been trying to drive up the cost of oil to mess with our economy and they ran out of money to do it.” — Veeshir
The opposite is happening. According to sources, prices are leveling.
If they were trying to throttle our economy, they’d be increasing their imports. But that is not what is being reported. Rather, that their ‘consumption’ is reported as being down. No change is reported in their imports. At least as far as I’ve seen. And, admittedly, I’ve not seen everything.
RE: Scarey Stuff
“…it makes an attack much more imminent.” — Veeshir
I’d like to have a feed from DIA right now. I’m sure they’re getting lots of useful information. Like the intell pukes in Red Storm Rising are in the first third of the book.
I’m wondering what sort of movies are being rolled out in Red China at the moment? Do they have an Eisenstein?
Regards,
Chuck(le)
Excellent post and comments. I was initially inclined to think that they were stockpiling to drive up the price and mess with our economy. However, given that they are so dependent on exports to the U.S. it does not seem to be in their best interest to slow our economy. So the stockpiling is one of two things, prudent saving for a rainy day, or something more ominous.
I wonder how smart sending air craft carriers into the straits would be. It only took two Exocets to disable the Stark. Granted the Stark wasn’t a carrier but if the Chinese decide to attack Taiwan, they’ll have not two, but 100′s of similar class missiles and a few subs to boot.
If we’re going to defend Taiwan, it’ll be the subs that do it. The carriers aren’t going to be worth much because they’re too vulnerable to too many threats.
The Navy has a habit of rigging exercises so the entrenched powers look like they’re able to handle any threat. Navy brass reprimanded the commander of the USS Greeneville for “being too aggressive” when he snuck by a carrier’s defense perimeter to demonstrate how vulnerable the carriers are to subs. When Jimmy Doolittle wanted to show how vulnerable battleships were to airplanes, the Navy tried to hamstring him. He only succeeded in sinking the Ostfriedland by ignoring the bomb size limit the Navy had decreed for the air power demonstration in 1921.
The USS Stark was our Ostrfiedland.
Given this:
“After growing 11 percent in 2003 and 15.4 percent last year, China’s overall oil use declined 1 percent in the second quarter…”
And the effect that it creates:
“…helped to push down the…global demand for this year”
What they have effectively done is to slow the increase in the cost of oil. Why would you want to do that? Oh…I dunno…maybe if you were looking to score a better deal while buying an oil company?
I don’t think that this negates the theory that the ChiComs want to sit on Taiwan, but I do think that is a better explanation for the short-term decrease in oil imports.
I agree with Veeshir…I don’t trust commies.
TO: michael
RE: Playing It ‘Smart’
“I wonder how smart sending air craft carriers into the straits would be.” — michael
That was merely a demonstration.
However, in a real action, I’m more concerned about the Navy playing it by their proverbial ‘book’. Just like in Red Storm Rising, the enemy knew our playbook and used it to their advantage.
In Iraq, our land forces did not play by the book, operationally speaking. Instead of weeks of bombing before the ground attack, we went in quickly and with devastating, to the enemy, results. And with few casualties of our own.
I hope the Navy doesn’t end up getting a bloody nose like it did in that great Clancy novel.
TO: Nick Bourbaki & Veeshir
RE: No Trusting Em
“I don’t trust commies.” — Veeshir & Nick Bourbaki
I don’t either. And, as in the more recent Clancy tales, they’re in cohoots with others. In the novels it was Iran and India.
In reality…I suspect al Qaeda.
RE: SITREP
I see the sitaution as this….
We’ll have our ‘shield’ operational within a year or so.
One of China’s favorite threats is that if we defend Taiwan, they’ll nuke LA.
With the shield established, that threat is nullified. Therefore, in order to take Taiwan with the least possibility that we’ll actively defend it, they must act before the shield is in place. That means SOON.
Chinese ICBMs do not have the reach of our own. They can only threaten the western states.
How nice it would be for the Chincoms if the NCA was whacked, as it was in Clancy’s Debt of Honor/Executive Orders duet.
Of late, we’ve heard of al Qaeda smuggling old Sov suitcase nukes into this country.
I see a possible scenario here of al Qaeda nuking DC and New York as a prelude to China launching it’s war of reunification with Taiwan.
Then, with the shield not in place, the recovering government might think twice about getting nuked on the west coast by the Chincoms and let Taiwan go the way of all flesh….
Hong Kong and other places, like Korea and Japan would suffer accordingly with China in ascendance.
RE: Odd, Isn’t It
Back in the 16th Century Nostradamus wrote something about how in July of 1999 a ‘king of terror from the sky’ would cause the return of the Mongol kings.
And, in that month of that year, the Soviet paratroopers moved into Kosovo on July 4th.[Note: My old regiment's credo is "Fury from the Sky". I see 'terror' as being a reasonable substitute.]
And ever since then, the Chicoms have been girding for war like there was no ‘tomorrow’. The old Sov subs, refitted to hold Sunburn missiles that can penetrate our carrier battle group defenses. The refurbished Sov guided missile destroyers. All the missiles they’ve been cranking out and pointing at the straits.
Their own military says that the United States is their biggest enemy and will eventually have to be ‘dealt with’. From their perspective, it’s better sooner than later.
Hope I’m wrong here, but I don’t care for the way the cards are being turned over in this hand.
Regards,
Chuck(le)
China stockpiling oil? Preparing to invade Taiwan?
The Vodkapundit postulates about the Chinese economy, oil consumption, and Taiwan. Neither he, nor I, like how it reads.
I’ve been wary of the ChiComs for a long time now, and that bit of blogging reinforces my wariness. The responses to the …
Perhaps we ought to calm down here!
Steven’s argument is not that oil consumption going down is a signal that war is about to be declared, but that the economy may be slowing. In such a political system, that may force the local dictatorship into a nationalist adventure to distract the populace.
This is a legitimate fear. We don’t need to go out into conspiracy theory territory.
In any case, the fall in imports is no mystery. There are three main causes.
First is that China has local price controls on refined oil products (like gas and other distillates). The refiners have slowed buying, because at current prices they are producing at a loss. (This is not really good news – it could and probably will cause shortages of refined products in China, which will indeed hurt the economy.)
Second is that in the later half of last year, a massive amount of oil was burned for use in power generation. This is because of a major spike in electricity demand which is met soonest with small, inefficient oil burning generators. It was expected that much of this usage would drop this year as power production switched to more larger coal fired plants (dirty, but cheap, and they generally only take a couple of years to build. Also, China has plenty of coal to burn, and it generates mining jobs in central China.) This is actually a “good” drop in oil use, as the coal plants are far better suited to electricity production.
Thirdly, China did indeed stop filling its oil stockpile recently. They even announced it to the press. This is for the same reason that we have: They have no more storage capacity. Unfortunately for future oil prices, they are currently trying quadruple their storage capacity over the next few years. (Truth is, we should probably be doing the same thing.)
All in all, I think the oil import drop may presage a slowing in the Chinese economy, but it just as well might not. And slowing doesn’t have to mean a collapse. It could just be a slow down in the growth rate.
TO: shaulie
RE: Is It?
“…the oil import drop may presage a slowing in the Chinese economy…” — shaulie
Is it a drop in imports? That could be nice.
On the other hand. As you say, they’ve topped off their strategic reserve. That might not be so nice after all. Maybe they’ve got what they need to comence operations without concern for fuel requirements.
Other indicators would be useful. Things such as:
[1] Unit training. Are they training at an increased tempo?
[2] Reserves. Are there more activated units than usual?
[3] Ammunition. Is it being produced to levels above what we were used to seeing?
Generally speaking, we don’t have this sort of information at our level. But it would be nice to know.
If it is a slowing of their burgeoning economy, it’s hardly as bad a situation as their preparing to go to war.
Regards,
Chuck(le)
OK, I’ll admit I’m no deep thinker of things foreign policy, but why would China bite the hand that feeds it? The US is it’s biggest ecomomic client. Are we not primarily responsible for China’s recent ecomomic surge? Are we not pooring BILLIONS of dollars into China annually? Why endanger that? Would control of Tiawan, with the likely result of closing the flow of dollars from America, be a net gain for China?
To qoute Hal Holbrook as Mark Felt, “Follow the money.”
This is an insightful post, but I doubt Taiwan will be the target. No invasion is feasible. Has anyone reported that China has built landing craft in large numbers? And troop ships? And how will it gain air control over the landing zones? We don’t need any carriers, our subs can sink what ships China has, and our air power can fly from Taiwan itself. Look at history, folks, invasions of North Africa, Sicily, Normandy, the many Pacific islands, Inchon — in every case we had air control first, battleships to conduct pre-landing shore bombardment, troop transports, masses of landing craft, and destroyers to escort the landing craft near the beaches. So far as I have heard, China has none of that. No ability to achieve air control, no shore bombardment capability, no troop transports, no landing craft. China is a land power, so look for it to go west, towards the “stans” and their oil.
TO: JunkHead
RE: Why?
“…why would China bite the hand that feeds it?” — JunkHead
Why does it want reunification with the democratic Republic of China (Taiwan)?
It wants reunification in order to squelch the possibility that the dread disease of the mind, freedom, may infect the people of the mainland.
Why fight the US? Because the US, as it stands today, would probably fight on Taiwan’s side to prevent a forceful reunification.
I suspect that the US looks upon Taiwan the same way we look upon our efforts in Iraq, a island of democracy in the midst of tyranny. Something that, given the chance, will ultimately spread to the other lands where such freedom does not exist.
I think the Chicoms see it that way too. And they dread the possibility that it could well happen.
In the end it will overcome their tyranny. And that is why it might be in their, personal, best interest to take action.
Regards,
Chuck(le)
junkhead- ever hear of Keep your friends close and your enemies closer. They wrote that book a thousand years ago. I’m not to sure that they arn’t using us more then gaining assistance from their closest enemy.
TO: sissoed
RE: Ever Hear of A Place Called…
“Has anyone reported that China has built landing craft in large numbers? And troop ships?” — sissoed
….called Dunkirk?
The Brits did not use a group of troop ships to pull their combat forces off the beaches there. Admittedly they left behind their heavy equipment. But all the people and their personal weapons and equipment were moved across a body of water not much different than the straits between Taiwan and the mainland.
Furthermore, the Chicoms demonstrated this sort of capability back around 2000, when the Taiwanese suddenly had a massive armada of chinese junks sitting off their coast. All staged there by the Chicoms.
In order to launch a quick invasion, you don’t necessarily have to have the massive ROROs of the US Naval Reserve Fleet. All you need are men, guns and boats to carry them with.
Prep fires could be accomplished by the large array of missiles the Chicoms have amassed on their shore opposite the island.
“And how will it gain air control over the landing zones?” — sissoed
Command of the airspace over the invasion corridors and beaches could be achieved by the Chicoms IF the United States Navy is not a player.
Espeically if there is a surprise attack that catches the Taiwanese Air Force on the ground like the Japanese did ours at Pearl Harbor.
How long does it take a guided missile to fly the straits? Several minutes? How long would it take to flush all the Taiwanese birds from their nests? Probably a few minutes more that it takes the missiles to catch them on the ground. Especially if the attack were to occur between 0100 and 0300 hrs (local). That’s when men have their slowest reaction times.
Knock out the air force on the ground. Keep the US from engaging. Hammer the defenses with impunity from your own shore. Then, when those have been neutralized, send in the light craft with the assault troops to secure a beachhead. Once that is secured, start pouring in masses of infantry. You’ve got plenty to spare…..
Regards,
Chuck(le)
TO: pete
RE: Interesting Point…
“I’m not to sure that they arn’t using us more then gaining assistance from their closest enemy.” — pete
…that.
I think they’ve been using a lot of the money we’ve been pouring into their economy to build-up their military.
Reminds me of way Imperial Japan bought all our scrap metal. And then was kind enough to return it to US.
This is why I have not been buying any Chinese manufactured goods, if I could help it. Especially after the first time they threatened to nuke LA.
Regards,
Chuck(le)
[The capitalists will sell us the rope we use to hang them. -- Old Communist Adage]
Steve, I found most of the same indicators in my three part series China: What the Future May Hold.
I also agree totally with Chuck Pelto on the real possibility of a Chinese attack on Taiwan. You must understand that Taiwan is China’s Holy Grail. They will attack, even if they know that they will loose. They have to, it’s their mind set.
Sissoed – You asked if China has the capacity to launch an invasion. The answer appears to be yes.
Chuck- You’re far more optimistic about ballistic missile defense working than I. As far as I can tell, it’s been pure pork barrel. But even assuming they get it to work, it in no way nullifies a nuclear attack. The Chinese aren’t stupid – if they think they can’t get past Alaska, they’ll just go around it. Much the same thing Hitler did in 40 when he circumvented the Maginot Line.
Junkhead – The Chinese would attack the U.S. despite the billions they earn from us if they figured that with us gone, or at least neutered, they would be king of the hill. Their problem is to pull that off without us melting China. If they send nukes our way, they’ll disguise their origin. That’s one of the reasons I’m not as sanguine as Chuck is about our missile defense. The nuke’s will come by boats, not missiles.
Michael, the Chinese have three priorities right now. Securing Taiwan. Securing a ring of territory offshore so that the protection of the homeland is moved hundreds of miles further out. And, securing raw materials and resources.
China has every reason to believe that the United States will not seriously interfere in any of this. They have fought us, remember? And they believe they won. They are asking themselves if we will risk a major and prolonged war over Taiwan, or the Spratleys or a Chinese move into the Russian Far East. They believe we will not.
The war in Afghanistan is seen as necessary punishment of the barbarians. Iraq is seen as a son’s duty to his father. All very traditionally Chinese and understandable to them.
Given enough of a threat, Taiwan will surrender. There’s too much money involved to fight. The trade between the two Chinas is tremendous, and Taiwan has invested billions on the mainland. We have the picture of the KMT leadership coming to Peking last spring, not as returning rulers but as supplicants. Who would have ever expected that?
The Chinese are flocking across the border into the Russian Far East by the millions. The Russians have little military in the region, and it’s undersupplied and unpaid. Already much of the trade in the region is with China. Again, would Putin choose a nuclear exchange in an effort to save a region that is not truly a part of Mother Russia?
Japan should be worried, as should the Phillipines. Various Chinese officials have repeated the old stories of these nations being once a part of China. China is intent on creating an outer barrier for the homeland and in order to do that, they have to do some conquoring.
A Vodka Soaked Prediction
Stephen Green thinks that he’s spotted a tell tale sign from China that aggressive moves are to be expected soon. I have to admit… he may have something there. After you finish reading the rest of his prediction, head on over and read these excell…
TO: michael
RE: Stupid Chinese
“The Chinese aren’t stupid…” — michael
I don’t think I’ve ever said they were.
RE: No Nullification of Nukes
“…But even assuming they get it [the shield] to work, it in no way nullifies a nuclear attack.” — michael
Not in the long run. Eventually, they’ll have missiles that can go far enough to reach all the world. But, last I heard, they currently don’t have that capability. Nor do their vicious, attack lapdogs, the North Koreans.
“…if they think they can’t get past Alaska, they’ll just go around it.” — michael
And, as your blog-site points out, they are developing a boomer of their own.
However, we’re not being totally idle either. And we might have something in the [skunk]works to deal with that. I can’t tell. I’m not in a position to know. But I have my hopes/suspicions.
Regards,
Chuck(le)
So, whatever this means, we should be wary of China. Rampant nationalism. State owned industry. Huge build-up in the military. Corporate espionage. Supression of free speech. Claims on foriegn territory. Villification of foriegners.
I don’t like making nazi comparisons, but can anyone honestly say that it isn’t valid here?
TO: michael
RE: Whether Or Not….
“I’m not as sanguine as Chuck is about our missile defense.” — michael
…the shield works. If it IS in place, an administration might think it effective enough to send our naval forces to counter any forced reunification. And all it would take is some American blood shed by Chicoms for the sake of Taiwan to insure an engagement that could go nuke, one way or another.
So, again, from a geo-political perspective, it would be in the Chicom’s best interest to force a decision sooner rather than later.
Regards,
Chuck(le)
TO: Half Canadian
RE: All That And….
“So, whatever this means, we should be wary of China. Rampant nationalism. State owned industry. Huge build-up in the military. Corporate espionage. Supression of free speech. Claims on foriegn territory. Villification of foriegners.” — Half Canadian
…they use Microsoft for their internet management, too.
Can they be any more evil than THAT? It’s hard to imagine, but I’m sure they’re clever enough to come up with something….
Regards,
Chuck(le)
[Will evil never rest? -- Announcer on Ren & Stimpie]
Oh fer cryin’ out loud. I just back from Afghanistan. Can’t I stay home just a little while?
Do you know how hard it was to learn even a little Dari? I have no hope of getting past 5 or so words of Chinese…
TO: Major John
RE: As the Old Army Adage Goes….
“Oh fer cryin’ out loud. I just back from Afghanistan. Can’t I stay home just a little while?” — Major John
…Fun! Travel! Adventure!
Enjoy your time back, compadre.
Keep up the good work; overseas. Wish I could be there with you….really…I do….
Regards,
Chuck(le)
P.S. Their ‘alphabet’ is a pill, no? Four thousand years of civilization and they didn’t conquor the world…yet. That’s because they have to spend so much time learning to read and write.
Hmmm.
Wal-Mart is the biggest customer of China for export to America. Is Wal-Mart’s sales drastically down? Is consumer confidence drastically down?
Frankly I think I’ll sign on to the “China is hoarding oil and prepping for war with Taiwan, Japan and America” crowd.
Hmmm.
“P.S. Their ‘alphabet’ is a pill, no? Four thousand years of civilization and they didn’t conquor the world…yet. That’s because they have to spend so much time learning to read and write.”
It’s even funnier than that. From what I understand the Chinese like to name their kids with lucky or auspicious names. So there’s only about 2000 popular names in all of China. And since a huge portion of China all share a small set of surnames, identity confusion can sometimes happen.
Like in an airport where someone announces a call for “Wang Zhao” and 200 men show up.
Funny enough the Japanese have the same trouble, but to a stranger extent. From what I understand when a couple names their child, they have to get approval from the government for that name. And Japan has a similarly limited supply of names.
TO: ed
RE: The Japanese Alphabet Problem
“…the Japanese have the same trouble…” — ed
They’re still in the ‘angry phase’, as I’d describe it. So PO’d at having to learn such a god-foresaken alphabet that they are more included to turn people into so much sishimi at any moment, just to relieve their internal frustration.
The Chinese outgrew that phase around 0 AD. The Japanese will too, if the Chinese give them that much time.
Regards,
Chuck(le)
Todays Links 2005 07 14 Thursday
How many Evil Infidel Points is insisting that terrorists act like civilized human beings? Oh. Right. I guess I’m a target. Big target fo…
TO: All
RE: Ahem….
Headline on Drudge…
…as I was saying….
…as of this writing.
Looks to me like psyops are being put into play. How very interesting….
Regards,
Chuck(le)
In a similar vein to what’s been discussed so far, this can’t be good news:
http://news.ft.com/cms/s/28cfe55a-f4a7-11d9-9dd1-00000e2511c8.html
P.S. If these indicators keep coming, I’m thinking its time for Cheney and half the cabinet and/or their immediate subordinates to start rotating out of DC.
Something about an activity called CONTINUITY OF GOVERNMENT we used to exercise now and then in the good ole, bad ole days of the Cold War.
P.P.S. God help MG Galen Jackman….he’s going to need it.
Red Storm Rising?
Normally I don’t get too worked up when Drudge starts blaring headlines about what Chinese officials say regarding their readiness and/or willingness to use nukes if provoked by the United States. But when it comes right on top of Martini…
“Mr. Pelto”, you don’t happen to work at Burpelson AFB, do you?
Michael,
You are confusing Doolittle with Billy Mitchell. He was the one who led the flight that sank the German ship. That test wasn’t exactly fair as the ship was not moving, not firing back, and the aircraft were flying too low. Not to mention that the aircraft were relatively slow that they were likely to have been shot down at that height.
It wasn’t until the Japanese sank the Prince of Wales and Repulse (both ships were steaming and firing back) that truly displayed the vulnerability of battleships to aircraft.
Of course there are exceptions. Such as the battleship USS South Dakota that shot down 26 Japanese aircraft. Wonder what Mitchell would have responded to that?
Back to China, as she grows in power and flexes her muscle, watch for countries in that region to show a nice, warm and friendly attitude toward the United States. Wasn’t Japan somewhat hostile to the U.S. back in the 80s? They seem pretty friendly to us now. Wonder why?
What’s Happening in China?
This could be nothing, but Vodkapundit worries a little about China’s fall off in energy use, and by extension, the fall-off in their economy. But what happens if China’s economy tanks? Well, they’d probably do what most dictatorships do: Send in the t…
TO: HT
RE: No
“”Mr. Pelto”, you don’t happen to work at Burpelson AFB, do you?” — HT
But I did the Cuban thing at Offutt. Does that count?
How much?
Regards,
Chuck(le)
P.S. POE!
Calculating China and Stephen Green
Yesterday, Stephen Green speculated about how much better he would feel about things if the United States
Are you sure that’s not OPE? Codes do get updated, you know.
P.S. Thanks for getting my (feeble) joke. I’ll tell General Turgidson that you’re still 100% on the ball.
P.P.S. Can I have my transistor radio back now?
well I like Nuclear explosions, enemy funerals, and Chinese women…..
if Red China wants to dance I’ll get more of two, and less of one.
I can live with that trade.
TO: HT
RE: Codes
POE. OPE. EPO. OEP. EOP. Whathaveyou. Just don’t give away your purity to any feckless women.
It was a good movie.
I have fond memories of watching the big birds scramble from my position on the bayou off the south end of the runway at Barksdale….and wondering WTF!!?!?!?
Always imagined Slim Pickens putting the throttle to the firewall in each one of the superfortresses.
RE: Radios
Sure thing. But be sure to keep it under its tin-foil cap when not in use. Protect it when the EMP comes rolling down the plains.
RE: Back On Topic
Anyone here recall when the oil prices went through the ‘ceiling’? It was just before the general election last year. October? Wasn’t it?
We were told it was because of all those hurricanes damaging the off-shore oil platforms. Right?
However, after the hurricanes and after the election, the prices stayed high. No explanation.
Now, looking back on it, I suspect that it was more than likely China, buying up all the oil it could, knowing that Bush was going to be re-elected….and planning for the worse.
Just an idle thought I had while smoking a fine cigar beside the outdoor fire pit this evening. Looking north and wondering if Cheyenne Mountain would be hit in such an activity. If so, I guess I’d better start bedding down my computers with their own tin-foil sleeping bags.
Sleep tight, compadre….
Regards,
Chuck(le)
P.S. If anyone can think of or spot any other interesting indicators, feel free to share.
P.P.S. If there were a role that best suited me in that movie, it would be Colonel ‘Bat’ Guano. Yeah…it’s a shitie job…but someone had to do it. And I did enjoy jumping those birds.
I have the fortunate pleasure of hearing them (C130s) almost every day. They use the local airport for practicing their landings and take-offs. My house is on final approach. Their engines use to sing me to sleep on operations, or in barracks at Bragg.
http://news.ft.com/cms/s/28cfe55a-f4a7-11d9-9dd1-00000e2511c8.html
And we give these human rights abusing, sworn enemies *most favored nation trading status*?
Off the freakin’ rails.
Women sense my power…but I deny them my essence.
General Jack D. Ripper
Chinese Chest Pounder
We have a term around these parts for a guy who talks a big game, whether or not he can back it up is irrelevent to the moniker. Look here; China is prepared to use nuclear weapons against the US…
And in all of these discussions of the intentions of the PRC, no one has mentioned the dog that hasn’t barked yet – India. Remember them?
We just signed a major defense cooperation treaty with India, and India and China have gone to blows on more than one occasion in the late 20th Century. Do not think that isn’t on Chinese minds.
As to a CVBG, for ground-based Chinese missles to approach a CVBG, they would probably have to fly OVER Formosa, as any US Navy battle group would stage to the seaward side of Formosa rather than in the Strait, allowing much more ability to intercept. That would then require Sunburn-equipped Chinese subs and vessels to engage US vessels in blue water – an ability the Chinese have yet to demonstrate to any large degree.
I suspect the oil thing is a blip. Just look at the numbers – there was an increase, then another increase, then a leveling off, similar to this use pattern: 2002 – 100M units; 2003 – 110M units; 2004 – 127M units; 2005 – 125.6M units. I don’t see anything particularly sinister there. If there was an actual real drop in importation (double-digit), then that would perk my ears up a bit more.
I am sincerely conflicted as to whether the B-52 or the B-2 is a more inspirational use of my taxpayer dollars. I’ve seen them both flying, and both are pretty impressive.
I suppose, though, that adjusting for inflation, my mind’s eye should conjur up (50) B-52′s to set against (1) B-2. Then it might not be such a contest.
TO: HT
RE: The Big B’s
“I am sincerely conflicted as to whether the B-52 or the B-2 is a more inspirational use of my taxpayer dollars,: — HT
I’ve seen the 47, 52, 58 and 1.
The 1 buzzed my car, flying just above grain elevator level in eastern Colorado. It was on a bomb-run as I was east-bound on I-70. Very impressive.
Never seen the 2.
In a little while, we won’t need the bombers. We’ll just do direct launch of the bombs from somewhere in Montana. Then, all the romance will be gone. Just the ground crews doing victory dances. Like someone who just scored a touchdown in the Super Bowl.
Heavy sigh. Patton was right….
Regards,
Chuck(le)
TO: JD
RE: Chinese Blue Water Navy
“That would then require Sunburn-equipped Chinese subs and vessels to engage US vessels in blue water – an ability the Chinese have yet to demonstrate to any large degree.” — JD
I think it was michael, somewhere above, who has a blog that addresses the Chicom efforts at establishing a blue water naval presence.
Ah yes….here ya go.
As I commented earlier (see above), the Chicoms have been girding for war since ’99. And using the money we’ve been pouring into their economy to do it.
Regards,
Chuck(le)
P.S. My mistake. Michael doesn’t have the blog. He has a link to an article.
Mr. Pelto cites Dunkirk as an example of troop movement off a coast without landing craft, but admits the troops left all their heavy equipment behind. The Chinese army is not going to invade unless it can land tanks and trucks. Moreover, the British achieved controlling air superiority over Dunkirk by flying the short distance from British land air bases; the Chinese have no way of achieving air superiority over Taiwan beaches by flying the long distance from the mainland.
TO: sissoed
RE: Trucks & Such
“The Chinese army is not going to invade unless it can land tanks and trucks.” — sissoed
The trucks can come ashore AFTER the beachhead is secured.
The beachhead can be secured without the immediate use of trucks.
RE: Air Supriority
” Moreover, the British achieved controlling air superiority over Dunkirk by flying the short distance from British land air bases; the Chinese have no way of achieving air superiority over Taiwan beaches by flying the long distance from the mainland.” — sissoed
Maybe you’d better go back and re-read some of the preceeding posts. I think I addressed this up there, somewhere.
Regards,
Chuck(le)
P.S. When did you graduate CGSC?
P.P.S. If they’ve already eliminated the Taiwanese air force and the US Navy is not engaged (see scenario above), you don’t need to keep aircraft over the battlefield. And, if they’ve got all the guided missiles they can throw at Taiwan, they can use those in lieu of Close Air Support and heavy artillary to provide indirect fire support to their ground forces until they can establish an airhead on the island.
BLOG: Quick Links 7/15/05
*Go vote in Mac Thomason’s tournament to determine the most annoying ESPN on-air personality! *Charlie Cook thinks it’s the Democrats who need to worry about party unity on judges, not Republicans. And check out The National Journal’s daily Blogometer….
Today’s Links 2005 07 15 Friday
Watch out! Far as I can determine, Vodkapundit saw this trend first, but this morning there is a new scary article Watch out! Far as I can determine, Vodkapundit saw this trend first, but this morning there is a new scary article
July 15, 2005 - 10:28 am
Link to this Comment
The Taiwan airforce is not going to be eliminated by surprise rocket attacks that destroy the planes on the ground. To do that the Chinese would have to cover the whole island, including air bases on its eastern side, with rockets. With Taiwan contesting or controlling the air, its tanks will crush infantry on the beach, since that infantry will have no tanks.
Chinese military planners are not going to launch an invasion where the chances of success rely on so many improbable outcomes coming true.
As to your query, I don’t know what CGSC means; I presume it’s a humorous reference to a military training school. I have no military training, but have long followed military history; my dad is a retired nuclear submarine commander, one grandfather was a carrier commander in the Korean War and WWII, the other was a captain of engineers in WWI.
TO: sissoed
RE: Funny….
“The Taiwan airforce is not going to be eliminated by surprise rocket…” — sissoed
…I’ll bet someone said exactly the same thing about the possibility of the Japanese getting in a suprise naval air attack against Pearl Harbor….60 year ago.
RE: However….
….allow me to offer you an opportunity to practice this theory.
Ever hear of a simulation called….Harpoon3?
Regards,
Chuck(le)
P.S. CGSC is the US Army Command and General Staff College.
Correction….65 years ago.
P.P.S. I used to tell my comrades-in-arms that if they didn’t think they’d get a chance at a Joint Command slot, they could always get a copy of Harpoon and become famliar with Air-Sea Battle as opposed to Air-Land. It’s THAT good….
TO: All
RE: PRC Threats to Nuke LA
Maybe this wouldn’t be such a bad thing after all?
Just an ‘evil’ sardonic thought on a Saturday morning while sipping coffee and stalking two PRC invasion fleets with a pair of Los Angeles class submarines [Harpoon3].
The scenarion, BUCKSHOT where it starts up, has already understood that the PRC has destroyed the ROC air force on the ground with a surprise missile barrage. One of the subs has been playing hide and seek with a PRC ASW aircraft which has already dropped a couple of torps on it.
Regards,
Chuck(le)
P.S. Thanks for turning me back onto this excellent simulation of contemporary naval combat operations, sissoed.
I’d like to get up a scenario to exercise the idea of the surprise missile assault on the island and see what might happen in the first few hours of the conflict.
A Threat or Promise?
What should we make of Chinese General Zhu Chenghu’s threat to respond with nukes if the United States steps in to defend Taiwan should China invade that island nation. Here is what part of what he had to say:
“If the Americans are determined to…
Cant be done. Vic Hanson (sen) out in Cal says that Bush has almost cut the Navy in half in 4.3 years. We dont have the Fleet to protect our friends and allies anymore.
Otherwise we should send ‘em.
TO: All
RE: Defending LA and Other Parts of Southern California
Thinking on the idea that the Peoples’ Republic of China, a.k.a. Chinese Communists (Chicoms), would nuke LA has brought up several additional thoughts.
First off, someone here said the Chinese were not ‘stupid’.
Is nuking the communistic part of these United States a ‘bright idea’? The people of LA are, in many peoples’ opinion, the greatest allies the Chicoms have here. Why should they destroy their greatest fifth column asset? Makes no sense.
I think they’re bluffing. And that IS ‘smart’.
What about nuking San Francisco?
Naaaah. Never happen. Too many relations living in the world-famous China Town area. Blood IS thicker than water. Especially with the Chinese…God bless em.
San Diego? Now THEY might have a problem.
For one thing, there are not as many commie sympathizers there. Quite a few, yes. But not as many as LA.
From a pragmatic perspective, they could afford to wack the community of San Diego and spare LA. Then the LA population could cry, “Look. See what you [Bush] made them do!” They would be more vocal than the people of San Diego would. And they’ve got the Hollywood media machine to support the message.
I think they’re bluffing about LA. But San Diego had better review their Civil Defense plans.
More evil, sardonic thoughts about the Chicom threat to nuke LA.
From my personal perspective? Should the PRC nuke any part of Southern California, It would be ‘sad’…a word used by an editorialist [Dilpazier Aslam] in the English “Guardian” paper after the 7/7 bombings.
Regards,
Chuck(le)
[Words have meaning...]
Jo is right . He is both appalled and angered at the massive cuts in the Navy made by Bush. One of his web sites is – http://www.victorhanson.com/
Check it out an see how very unhappy he is with Bush’s drastic cuts in the Navy.
We can not sent many fleets to Formosa becaus we only have 2.5 left. Not the 4 we had when Clinton left.! And Republicans are stong on defense?!@!#
TO: Rod Stanton
RE: Yeah….Right….
I watched Clinton cut divisions from the active army and reduce P2 Mission funding to the point that people couldn’t qualify on their weapons. Not to mention the political cretins that got promoted to flag-grade positions….
Go F yourself….
Regards,
Chuck(le)
P.S. I can’t speak well for the naval perspective. However, I will say this. If someone cut the Navy, it’s because the cretins that got to flag-grade positions in the Puzzle Palace during the Clinton ‘administration’ had a BIG say in it.
So…as I said above….
US-India alliance – China oil consumption drop
The world’s two largest democracies have formed an even closer alliance.