Post-Modern Warfare
We call the French “cheese-eating surrender monkeys.” The Germans, for all their fearsome reputation, haven’t thrown a winning war since 1870. It took Italy two wars before it could beat godforsaken Ethiopia. Poland owes its national existence to the kindness of strangers negotiating around a Versailles conference table. The last time the Spanish won a war, they were fighting each other – and so ineptly that the damnable, sad affair was half-fought by foreigners.
But make no mistake: The Europeans are good at killing. Revolutionary France started the first modern revolution in warfare by inventing the mass army of conscription. A Brit, James Puckle, invented the machine gun. Put the two together, and you get the First World War – global war and “total war” being two other European gifts to the world, wrapped into one shiny little conflict.
From tanks to civilian bombing to Hitler’s ovens, Europe has given the world more ways to kill more numbers of people than probably any other continent. In fact, Europeans named Lenin and Hitler invented those human abattoirs we call “totalitarian states.”
Not that each and every one of those items is a bad thing. Were it not for the tank, Europe might still be fighting on the Western Front, nearly 91 years after the Great War started. Civilian bombing certainly shortened that war’s popular 1939 sequel. Despite some local atrocities, it’s hard to argue that European colonialism wasn’t more civil for western Africa and the Middle East than the local governments they have in those places today. And how did European nations become global empires? In no small measure because of their talents for killing.
Anyway, that’s what popped into my head after reading the most recent post here by Will Collier. After reading an article showing that the Netherlands (former owners of Indonesia, one of the world’s largest Muslim nations) could be majority-Islamic fairly shortly, Will said:
What happens 20 or 30 years from now, when demographic trends could well result in “minority-majority” (or even outright majority) status for the Islamic cohort in western Europe? If they’re faced with the options of dhimmitude or flight, where will the native Europeans flee to?
Why, here, of course.
What Will left out is the third option. If somewhere down the road the worst should come to worst, Europeans could always stay home and fight. And don’t think they couldn’t.
Problem is, the fight wouldn’t be the pretty kind where you see a few bold arrows drawn on the map, confidently slicing through history and the enemy lines. We’re not talking Desert Storm here, which you could draw with five arrows and lasted only 96 hours. We’re not even talking about the Liberation of France in 1944, which took slightly more arrows and just six weeks. Oh, no.
We’d be talking about city fighting. But not the kind of city fighting you saw in Saving Private Ryan, where the likeable, well-trained and battle-hardened soldiers could call in an air strike just when all seemed lost. Thanks to modern Europe finally putting “ain’t gonna study war no more” into nearly full effect, they hardly have any battle-hardened soldiers. They hardly have any soldiers left at all.
The city fighting we’d see in Europe would look like what we saw in Sarajevo ten years ago. You know, ragtag bands of men with no uniforms, stolen weapons, and a desire to kill anybody who looked Muslim (or on the Muslim side, European). Holland and Denmark would fare worst. They’re both tiny, both have very high (and increasing) Muslim populations, and neither country has much of a modern military tradition. In this worst-case scenario, the likelihood of ethnic mob rule ala Bosnia seems high.
Want to take the worst-case a little further? Both countries border Germany, which might feel the very legitimate need to march in to restore Ordnung. I think we all know what usually happens once the Germans start goose-stepping through their smaller neighbors.
No, the result wouldn’t be World War III (or V?). But Europe could very well become Bosnia on a continental scale, with all the devastation, mass graves, and ethnic cleansing that implies. You can bet, at best, there would be a whole lot of people put at gunpoint onto refugee boats bound for North Africa and the Levant. Assuming, of course, the Europeans win in such a scenario. If not, the poor refugees would speak languages much like our own, and be bound for our own shores – just like Will suggested.
Me, though, I’d put my money on the Europeans winning a war of mass, mechanized murder.
After all, they invented it.
Europe As Bosnia
Steve Green has some thoughts on postmodern warfare….
Stephen,
The upcoming elections in the United Kingdom are going to be very interesting in this regard. While most of the British, according to a BBC poll think that GWB’s reelection has made the world less secure,(but then they get their news from Al-BBCeera), the real interest will be how the smaller, more nationalistic parties such as the British National Party and UKIP fare. The trend in recent European elections has been an increase in support for these fringe, “racist” organisations, much to the woe of the establishment in the corridors of power.
Remember that in the last French election Chirac’s opponent was not the mainstream opposition socialist chap whose name I forget, but Jean Marie Le Pen. Once Le Pen made it to the finals there was a European wide campaign of vilification that spoke more about the vilifiers than about Le Pen.
However message remains that throughout Europe there is a growning and increasingly vocal concern about the islamisation of the continent, these concerns are having an effect in the ballot box and all the epithets and insults will not chase the concerns away.
Don’t assume that the Europeans will fight back. They don’t have the energy, and their predominant ideology does not allow it. In Belgium, the largest political party (Vlaams Blok) has been banned on the grounds that it is “racist” for even suggesting that Muslims make some attempt to assimilate. The Dutch are giving up and immigrating en masse to Australia and Canada. Much more on this here.
I agree with Van Helsing.
The ultimate death sentence, from which there is no recovery, is demographic replacement. Then there is no possibility any more for any later generation to say: well our olden-tine culture was submerged, but now lets consider being Viking, or pyramid-building Egyptians or whatever again. The future generations will be descended from a different people from a different land, with no contact with any of that. Mussolini’s effort to revive the Roman Empire was a fiasco, but the effort was possible. There is no such possibility for the Picts.
The Old Europeans have submitted and are submitting to death by demographic replacement. They couldn’t and wouldn’t resist when they had everything in their favour and just had to say no. Now that they have swallowed the Muslim demographic face-hugger it’s too late, and of course even if it was possible to resist, they are dying out in every way, including sheer will. People without children to be part of the future won’t fight and sacrifice for it like people who do.
And any pathetic, belated efforts at resistance will be a fiasco, like the posturing of the last would-be dominant White South Africans.
Given what seems to be the prevailing attitude of the elite in Europe (and to some extent the United States), I think the prospect of Europeans fighting Islamo-facsist incursion is dim. In some cases — the UK being the most notable exception and possibly some nations in Eastern Europe as well — its conceivable, but in a century when the Germans of all people have become pacifists, I wouldn’t hold out too much hope.
Europeans capable of mustering a decent fight either died on the many 20th-century battlefields or emigrated to Anglosphere countries with measureable testosterone levels. Europe is a deck of cards waiting to be collapsed by a bitch slap.
I agree with others here. EUnuchistan won’t fight: some will flee, some will bow down, and some will die. Appeasement will give rise to slavery. Those who believe in peace above all else — particularly justice — will discover that an unjust peace is easy to acquire: surrender. They don’t have the means or the will to fight a determined enemy.
Here’s the $64 question for Americans: when the gentle people of EUnuchistan cry out in horror and beg us to rescue them — again — will we do it? IMHO: let them rot in their self-made hell.
I’d say let them rot, but in the end we’ll save them again. And fifty years later when they’ve rebuilt their shiny new welfare states, free of the deported North Africans (though who survived, that is) they’ll be holding huge paper mache puppets in the streets and calling us names again.
History repeats itself. Sometimes the names change, but in this case they will not.
Only a person rather uninformed on Ethiopian history could call it “godforsaken”.
Most American’s impressions of Ethiopia are due to the 1980′s, in which a terrible Communist regime allowed one ethnic group in one region (near to Sudan) to starve.
Ethiopia is not a vast desert. Parts of it are fertile, with vast freshwater lakes and broad rivers. It’s history goes so far back into distant antiquity that the Old Testament uses Ethiopia as an example of a land that God has blessed.
Ethiopia has always been among the most advanced regions of Africa.
Ethiopia was a unified kingdom throughout the Middle Ages, and became in European minds a distant land of enchantment, the land of “Prester John” (a phrase derived from the title of the king of Ethiopia), the single non-European Christian kingdom.
That Ethiopia was so ably able to resist being conquered by Italy reflects not as much poorly on Italy as it reflects positively on Ethiopia.
During the 1990′s, when Ethiopia and its breakaway Muslim province Eritrea went to war, it was a war of organized militaries and vast tank battles not seen since the Iran-Iraq war, not the sort of war of barbaric boy soldiers found in West Africa.
‘Nuff said.
I feel pity
Oh, much pity,
I feel pity for cities in France.
Europe
Europe needs to find a happy medium between fascism and pacifism, and find it quick. Both lead to war, and Europe is historically overdue for one. They’ve turned a blind eye to radical Islam and seem to have no will to address the problem.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see things come to a head much earlier than 20-30 years in the future. In fact, we may be better off if they do. As WWII taught us, a small war to kill evil in its infancy would have averted unprecedented carnage and slaughter.
As Europe taunts America about its wonderful new flying cruise ship, they’re ignoring the rot that’s destroying them under their very eyes.
Better them than us.
Although someday we will have to deal with the Grand Caliphate of Eurabia.
Sadly, I don’t see Europeans fighting to retain their culture. Those who would fight are already in such a minority that even an attack of the magnitude of 9/11 wouldn’t make much difference. A few years ago, such an event could have re-awakened some sense of what was to come, and roused a defense against it.
But now the Islamofascists know that there is little reason to carry out such attacks against France, Germany, Belgium and the rest — time, as Mick Jagger sang, is one their side.
I would be pleased to be proven wrong, though. We will be there to help “save” Europe regardless of whether the Europeans themselves are still around. Freedom’s for everyone, after all.
Just on the case of Europeans and war, there is an excellent book called Carnage and Culture by Victor Hanson that attempts to explain why Western (European and American) are so dominant in armed conflict. If you look at the criteria he puts forth, most still exist in Europe: an emphasis on discipline over courage, preference for shock conflict (reduction of the opposition through the application of main force) instead of indirect pressure, the rational approach and scientific reasoning, embrace of free markets and captialism (finally growing in the welfare states), and finally innovation and initiative throughout the ranks.
While Europe may not be the bloody veterans they used to be, they retain for the most part the culture necessary to produce warriors willing and able to kill at a prodigous rate. Before you go writing off Europeans as a bunch of limp wristed pansies, remember the Victorians. They fit just about every criteria imagineable for the Nancy awards, but where still capable of wiping the Zulus off the map and creating a culture that refered thousands of casualties daily as “wastage”. The unknown factor was already pointed out above by David Blue: will a people who don’t have children commit themselves to a fight that tough. Usually, such fervor is brought about in response to a threat to a legacy, many Europeans are forsaking a future legacy by choosing few if any children. If you have no children to fight for, why jeopardize your current peace?
Mr. Green, you have stated exactly what I have told other people last year. Various European nations may not want to be soldiers, but kill? Oh, they’ve all got advanced degrees in Killing. I even made a slogan for them:
“Europe: Bringing You Bigger Bloodbaths For A Brighter Tomorrow”
Speaking as a Brit (do we count as Euro’s or not?):
I’m no mindlessly optimistic multiculturalist: there’s a real problem of a (small) jihadi underground and a larger (but still apparently minority-within-Muslims) disaffected underclass and Islamist politico/religous agitators in the UK.
Apparently the problem is worse on the Continent (perhaps in part due to the Arab rather than “Indian” origins of Continental Muslims?).
But as I commented on Will Collier’s post, I’m not (yet) scared (just peturbed) by the demographics.
As regards civil strfe, I’ve talked about this with a couple of French, who are confident that the bidonvilles could be secured by the paramilitary police and gendarmerie without even needing to trouble the regular army of 130,000 odd professionals, who could then crush centres of insurgency methodically.
If it came to all out conflict, even the Netherlands can field 3 mechanised brigades and 1 airborne.
Total EU states armed forces excluding conscripts come to c. 1.4 million.
OK, quality can be (very) variable, and in most cases not up to the equipment and training of US or UK forces.
But I’d put most any of them against twice the number of fighters from other continents and expect them to win.
As for political will, the Germans may be pacifists externally (thank you, oh thank you Lord!) but flip the switches that an internal threat would flip, and I’d bet old sleepy pussycat becomes a rabid tiger quicker than you’d expect.
Incidentally, the largest military formation near the Netherlands is the British Army of the Rhine.
And UK tolerating a ‘Caliphate of Europe’? Given the constant of British policy – never let an agressive Power dominate the Low Countries?
I can only quote that great sage Bugs Bunny:
“He don’t know me too well, do he?”
More blood later instead of cutting it off now.
John, when will you guys learn?
I’ve lived in Germany recently, and though I can’t speak to the abilities and psyche of the Dutch and Norwegians, the Germans have one thing very much in their favor: They are a nation of rule abiders and are *very* good at doing what they’re told to do.
Ten years ago, they were being told and reminded weekly that all of them were responsible for WWII, and that the world still thought of them as Nazis. I’d had more than a few conversations with people who thought the Germans were widely hated throughout the world for WWII. That was in 1995.
Those reminders and the weekly broadcasts about Hitler have pretty much disappeared. Right now they’re being told that Americans are overly aggressive, and they should follow the French and be passive internationalists. They’re doing that very well.
Under the surface, however, is a growing disquiet regarding Turkish and other Muslim immigration, and the corresponding rise of crime rates.
What happens when a charismatic, angry, demagogue comes along in 10 years and convinces the Germans that they need to clean up the crime-ridden neighborhoods?
I have no fear that the Germans can and will protect their society and culture. What they may become to do so may resemble a bit of history. I wouldn’t want to be a Muslim living in Germany 10 years from now.
-S
Of all the ‘spineless’ Western European nations I would suspect the French to do the best in a cultural war against an increasing Islamic population. Sure, they lasted only a short time against Germany, but that’s only because the Germans threatened the French nationality, rather than culture. The sense of the superiority of their culture that the French seem to posess is an incredibly powerful force, and it’s one of the main reasons they seem to fear and hate us in the U.S., and ironically one of the reasons their culture does not export as well as American culture.
If it ever came to all out fighting I have to doubt that the Europeans could and will be able to anhilate anybody who they might deem to be a threat. When faced with terrible circumstances Western people have a tendency to rise up, endure anything that comes their way, and will be ready to start killing people the first moment they can.
Even with the current pacifistic view, it would only take one terrible act upon Westerners in France or Germany to rekindle a flame in Euros that is a by product of over 5,000 years of constant warfare. If you ever need to read an account of what happens to Westerners under harsh circumstances read any detail of the Battle of Britain to see how strong a resolve people can muster. I was very shocked, in a good way, of the Euro’s reaction to the death of Theo Van Gogh, it was almost a continental wake up call, but not quite.
Thats why I would be afraid to seriously attack(as in to invade and conqueor completely, not just sting us with terrorist attacks) a Western country. Europeans would make the streets run with blood and not very many enemies would be spared due to also having a somewhat vengeful streak in them (as in the Treaty of Versailles which was meant to punish and humiliate Germany, more so than end a war; and the French Revolution where pretty much every major leader of both the rebels and aristocracy was guillotined).
America would be the same way if for some reason a foriegn army invaded. Every American knows a guy who owns at least 5 guns. If somebody invaded we’d all find that guy, borrow a gun, and start shooting people from behind trees. In the end we’d probably kill just as many people as the Euros did, but we’d probably feel bad about it later and give them some money to help clean our conscience.(see Mexican American War)
None of the things I’m saying are meant to offend Euros at all. In fact I admire any people who in times of trouble can reach inside their soul and pull out the strength of will to get the job done.
Sum, sum.
As a Britisher myself, I can confidently say that across much of Europe, the worst is already happening – hopefully not here, though.
The important thing to understand about the situation is this; there are two schools of thought on the issue. The first holds that the way to tackle the perceived threat of increased Islamification, or over-Islamification, is by curbs on immigration. The second holds that Islam needs to be secularised. Not surprisingly, those positions are held by generally right and generally left respectively. At first glance, the former would seem the better option, though I personally believe only a combination of the two will suffuce – an Islamic population that is increasing slowly, if at all, and is becoming increasingly secular.
Don’t worry, though – if your worries that GIs are going to be called to Dunkirk soon, you can relax; you’ve got the rest of the Axis of Evil to finish with first – and tell GWB to get on with it!
Those Fightin’ Europeans
Interesting stuff going on over at Martini Boy’s joint. I really enjoy that there are two bartenders nowdays: we get more good stuff as a result. First, after reading this article , part of which touches upon the “white flight”…
it all depends on the strategy.. if it’s the slow boil, the leftist “elites” may keep a lid on until the caliph takes over… but if the islamists overplay their hands (as is their wont) we’ll see the dance begin
as for the imaginary hallucinations of a war in the americas… no one can invade, given the lovely multi thousand mile sail with air superiority, massive radar installations, and a seriously kick ass fleet of nuke subs. any serious war in the americas can be extinguished very very very easily… given the US’s total control and ability to deny all supplies to hostile forces (low to non-existent relevant manufacturing base, easily targeted oil facilities…)
any one that thinks they can beat the US head to head is shooting way too much smack. but then you have to be to be a leftist dictator in the americas these days
we shoulda moved in to Venezuela the day of the coup and grabbed chavez’s ass.. note to all coup plotters… don’t hold the deposed president, have him committ suicide before you get him or have him shot while escaping… he’s unlikely to pull a rasputin and come back from the dead…
Europeans will not be defeated by force of Muslim arms, but by inexorable demographic trends. They will lose not in a climactic battle a few decades hence, but to millions of Muslim climaxes each night. Sleep on, Europeans. Leave the problem to your children.
Oh, please. The Netherlands will not have a Muslim majority anytime soon. If current birth- and migration rates persist, this will only happen in a century or two. We won’t fight because there’s no reason to. And unlike gun-uncontrolled Americans we’ve had to live with Auschwitz for 60 years now, so we’re not inclined to just shoot anyone whose religion or culture offends us.
Sorry, that wasn’t very friendly of me, was it?
How about those United States. Your Melting Pot doesn’t seem to apply to black or latin people, does it? In the Netherlands we try our very best to avoid “Amerikaanse toestanden” (American practice) that from our point of view amounts to ghetto’s full of armed drop-outs. We don’t take up arms because we don’t want them to shoot back. It’s a different tradition from yours, and I suggest you all read a bit more before having all these Opinions.
Sorry again. This ticks me off.
It seems strange to hear phrases like ‘Your melting pot doesn’t seem to apply to black or latin people’ as I read about an African-American senator regarded as a rising star of the democratic party question a widely respected African-American Secretary of State.
You are not seriously asking me to regard two cases as evidence for the overwhelming success of black people across the States, are you?
Along the lines of what we’ve been discussing, check out the following, obtained via Instapundit.
http://news.scotsman.com/topics.cfm?tid=591&id=56762005
I find it amusing how Dutchie’s comments regarding current and trending Muslim democraphics don’t get in the way of everyone else’s nightmare scenarios.
Can anyone provide actual statistics of European Muslim populations?
Can anyone speak with actual authority about future projections based on actual evidence?
Oh, and by speaking with authority, I don’t mean anecdotal evidence along the lines of “I was in Paris the other day, and man, there were Muslims everywhere.” Statistics, please.
NPR had a series on their All Things Considered in December discussing this issue. (http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=4225527) The title of the series was “Europe: Islam’s New Front Line”. Pretty interesting. It was not an alarmist story, no sensationalism.
Oh and Dutchie, before denigrating America’s slums (and oh boy do we have them), try taking a walk thru Rotterdam. Anyone from Red Hook will feel right at home.
What’s Red Hook?
I’ve looked up the numbers: 650,000 out of 16,000,000 Dutch are from Morocco and Turkey. The majority of these are Muslim, and a very small minority of them are of the newly constructed “Radical Islam” conviction.
Anyway, if this 4% increases at 2% (of 4) a year, and the native white protestant/catholic/atheist Dutch population decreases at 0.5% (of 100) a year, like now, it will take (erm…) a lot of time before Muslim population equals anywhere near 50% of total.
So that’s not what’s worrying the Dutch. What’s keeping them occupied is the one Moroccan street robber that got killed by his victim this week, or the Muslim activist who killed Theo van Gogh. These are high-profile incidents which make my countrymen want to shove all Arabs and self-proclaimed Arabs like our Moroccan youth out of the country. Don’t believe the hype.
CIA gives grim warning on European prospects
Whoa. “THE CIA has predicted that the European Union will break-up within 15 years unless it radically reforms its ailing welfare systems. The report by the intelligence agency, which forecasts how the world will look in 2020, warns that Europe
Actually, the Dutch foreign-born population appears to be increasing at 4% per year, not 2%. Assuming for the sake of argument that the net decrease in the native-born really is 0.5%/year, the Netherlandish population will be over half foreign-born in 2039. But, hey, if the prospect of “global warming” doesn’t bother us, why should that bother you?
Interestingly, the data puts the combined total of Moroccans and Turks in the Netherlands in 2003 at 353,895, nearly 300,000 less than you do? Are you confusing them with other indistinguishably brown immigrants, refusing to acknowledge that their descendants, even if born in the Netherlands, could ever be Dutch, or just talking off the top of your head?
I combined 1st and 2nd generation (figures Jan, 2005) because “second generation” involves one parent from The Netherlands and one from Morocco/Turkey. My source (the Central Bureau of Statistics) predicts 4,547,619 “foreigners” in 2039 (17,029,710 total) and 5,025,655 to 16,905,910 in 2050.
We’ll just have to wait and see.
Dutchie touches on one interesting difference between the US and Europe.
The US is much more assimilationist. France, the UK, and the Netherlands all have places where the culture of the host country is simply non-existent and are “no-go” areas. The horrid suburbs of Paris where Muslims from North Africa dominate and police, post, fire, and emergency personnel don’t dare enter come to mind.
The US has it’s ethnic enclaves, Wilshire from say Downtown through MacArthur Park is little El Salvador; further west it’s the heart of Koreatown, and that’s just LA. However, none of that is no go and you will find plenty of English spoken there. Everyone wants to “get out” and move to a nicer place in LA, out in Simi Valley or Ventura or Orange County. The American Dream is exactly WHY they came there in the first place.
I’d bet the first start of war comes in Spain. It’s a rich country, with a weak government (Zapatero appeases, to no end, Al Qaeda wants Al Andulus back). Spain is next to massively poor Morrocco, which has a stable kingdom now, but who knows what an ambitious military officer could do; particularly mixed with Islamic revival (Spain WAS Muslim once) and the riches to be taken from Europe.
Morrocco would roll right over, and eventually the Europeans would fight back after Spain is reconquered (again) by the Muslims.
However, you can’t be rich and unarmed in a bad neighborhood forever. That much is clear.
But make no mistake: The Europeans are good at kil
But make no mistake: The Europeans are good at killing.
The first time the terrorists said boo, the Europeans (Spain) buckled. Europe is too weak, spineless, socialistic and self-loathing to ever stand up to the Muslims and terrorists. Maybe East Europe might, after having suffered tyranny for so long, they may make some effort to resist. But France, Germany, Holland, Denmark??? Please.
Interested by the non-possibility of a Pictish revival.
Who do you think the Scots-Irish are?
The problem in my county is not so much the ghetto’s or the immigrants but Jim’s mentioning of the American Dream got me thinking – some of our Muslim youth seem to think there is nothing to be gained. At all. And turn to a self-invented “Radical Islam” which is as intolerant as any religion of insecurity.
They are not many, but they are dangerous. Violent opposition will probably drive them further into the arms of would-be-imams from Saudi Arabia – but I guess you (Americans and Canadians) would see this (my opinion) as yet another indication that Europeans are pussies.
So maybe we are. And maybe we’re wrong. I would like to see our Muslim youth (all of our youth, actually) joining in, instead of dropping out. They have to want to be part of this culture. But they don’t, because they, like you, think we are weak. So here’s our conclusion: make Dutch society more macho and violent and unfriendly to women, so our immigrants will understand and take part.
I give up. All of you are right. I’ll be looking for an all-American guy to marry real soon. Anyone interested?
Verdun was dandy.