Wargaming the Electoral College
Electoral-Vote.com picks Kerry, 283-246. They have WI, FL, IA and NM all going for Kerry, with NV and NH too close to call.
ElectionProjection goes for Bush, 286-252.
Dave Leip (US Election Atlas) gives Kerry the Mother of All Squeakers: 272-266. (Slate concurs.)
Greg Abbott says he’d “rather be in John Kerry’s position than George Bush’s.” And no wonder. The way he figures undecided will break on Tuesday, they give Kerry a substantial 297-241 win.
Tripias goes almost exactly the other way. Bush, 295/Kerry, 243.
Meanwhile, TradeSports hasn’t changed since Sunday morning.
You’ll notice a new map of the US at the top of the righthand column of this page. Currently, all states are gray. As election results come in Tuesday, I’ll be filling them in with the appropriate colors, along with running totals of the Electoral College vote.
For this one, I’ll have to stay sober – it looks to be a long night.
Here’s my last guess before the big day:
UPDATE: I keep finding more data, polls, reports from local voters, early voting exit polls, etc – so this won’t be my final map, after all. Look for another one late Monday night.
UPDATE: Betting is closed on TradeSports.
1: As Bush is the incumbent, he should be in Blue, not Red.
2: You’re being a pesimist on MN. Check out the guys at Powerline for why (see esp here).
Ok, ok I’ll make a prediction
One of these sites will be out of the projection business on November 3rd. Electoral-Vote:Kerry 283, Bush 246 Election Projection: Bush 286, Kerry 252 Update: Vodkapundit has got the rest of the sites’ predictions….
Like that but add Minnesota and Hawaii: Bush >= 300.
electoral vote picks kerry 291-242 as a final. you’re quoting his daily poll (there is a link for his final prediction)
No way Kerry wins New Mexico. I am here, and I am quite sure of it. Nevada, Florida, and Iowa are all going Bush.
That guy at Ev is dreaming.
What city do live in Brian, and if in Albuquerque what region? Considering the Bush camp is still coming to New Mexico a couple days before the election, unlike Kerry’s, and that the most recent poll taken by the Albuquerque Journal has Bush leading by 3% (within the margin of error). What makes you so sure?
Scratch that reverse it, as a wise man once said. My comprehension skills are long gone now after a long weekend/workweek.
Would someone by kind enough to explain to me how I can save my scenario from opinionjournal.com and post it on my blog?
Good call Mr. Green. I only disagree with your Wisconsin pick.
Brendan,
I am in Albquerque, on the west side, where all the newly-built houses are, and I attend UNM Law School, where I am one of only a few Bush supporters. Kerry sent Clinton to Santa Fe. Kerry should win Santa Fe by 85/15. That Clinton went there tells you all you need to know.
What has convinced me is the serious, and I mean serious, drop in morale of the Kerry supporters that I see every day. They look and act like I did when I spent a lot of time doing the shit work for Dole in 1996.
divine wind
The summary. Senator Kerry cannot garner over 50% of the popular vote; President Bush can, and almost certainly will. More importantly: Kerry cannot reasonably hope to hit the 300 EV mark; the President can, along a number of different vectors….
I think Hawaii will turn red; just a feeling.
Sober you say. That’s what clinicians call, professionally speaking, “crazy talk” Stephen.
Can you seriously run a blog with the name Vodkapundit and not hold your liquor? Come on big guy. I’ve got a case or more of Beast Light in the fridge right now!!* And I’m drinkin’ it all regardless of how the polls turn. Kerry–I’ll be drowning my sorrows. Bush–I’ll be celebrating.
Make it happen.
*No I don’t.
beware electoral-vote.com. i`ve been looking at it for a couple of weeks and it fluctuates WILDLY from one day to the next. they had bush on top by the same margin just a day or so ago.
and i also think hawaii is going for bush.
let the games begin!
-n-
electoral-vote.com is 100% poll-driven, which means it suffers from the same “adjusting for my guy” syndrome as all the polls do.
That also helps to explain the wild swings.
I’m sticking to my guns. Bush 310 EV, lawsuits to follow.
OTB Election Prediction: Bush 286, Kerry 252
The election is tomorrow (except for the nearly one fifth of the electorate who’ve already voted) and the polls aren’t any clearer than they were six months ago.
The RealClear Politics average has it Bush 48.5%, Kerry 46.8%, Nader 0.8% (Bush +1.7…
Guessing the EC
I would say “analyzing” but “guessing” seems best.
James Joyner
makes his precition and rounds up the last set of EC polls.
Stephen Green has his own list of those Wargaming the Electoral College as well.
I shall make my own prediction b…
Bloggers, Place Your Bets on the 2004 Elections
Psychics have an easy job. Just make a bunch of predictions. When you’re wrong, keep quiet. When you’re right, remind people endlessly. So for the 2004 election I’m keeping track of predictions to see which ones pan out. I’m concentrating on bloggers, …
Regarding Birkel’s comment: The only way I drink the Beast is if Kerry wins. Sort of like a hairshirt. But worse.
Long NIGHT? Try long 2 months, while 19 dozen lawsuits are going on. Can you stay sober that long?
Well, both Bush and Kerry have early afternoon rallies scheduled in Milaukee today about 2 blocks from each other.
Bush is holding his in the Midwest Airlines center, and Kerry is holding his outdoors in front of city hall. That will effectively close off the entire center of downtown. I wonder how popular that will be with everyone.
When Kerry was in Madison last week, he actually stayed in the Milwaukee Hilton, and they closed off the streets around the Hilton, so people who have monthly parking couldn’t even get into one of the largest garages that morning when they got into work. Boy were people pissed. I wonder how many votes Bush got that morning.
Wisconsin is definitely in play, and both candidates know it.
Of course Santa Fe will go for Kerry. The place is a granola cereal: Get rid of the nuts and fruits, all you’ll have left are the flakes! That said, it’d be a nice place to live, except for the cost of living & the lack of jobs.
I will definitely be drinking Tuesday … but I commend Stephen for “taking one for the team.” My thoughts are with you as you try to make it through the long night … sober.
I have to agree about EV being all over the place from one day to the next. When I checked it Friday the numbers for Bush and Kerry were exactly reversed from what they were yesterday and this morning..
Election Projections…
Tis the season for this sort of thing, so let’s review all the most recent polling and go with a electoral vote map…
Ah, hell, let’s just link and map:
In no particular order:
Real Clear Politics
Daly Thoughts
Election Projection
Electo…
Cathy and that other guy-
I read Electoral-Vote.com religiously, even back when they had Bush winning. They have predicted as a final result a Kerry win for well over a week now. I look at it every day. While it fluctuates it has had a solid trend towards a Kerry win for well over a week. While I don’t know that I believe it, it hasn’t fluctuated as quickly as you have implied. Slate has likewise been trending towards Kerry and had him winning 299 electoral votes. Frankly it will come down to who carries Ohio and Florida. Florida is evidently trending Kerry but not sure how much time it has to turn blue. It is rumored that 30% of the states’ registered voters have already voted. I definitely think Kerry has to hold on to Ohio to stand a chance. What will be humorous is when Kerry wins the EC and Bush wins the popular vote. Karma is a bitch.
Bush 342. Ignore the polls.
As a service to you Stephen, to ward off any uncalled-for abstinence, I suggest the following strategy, as a means of pacing oneself through the day and evening. Note that all meals are very easy and quick to prepare:
Breakfast: Huevos Rancheros, with a proper bloody mary.
Mid morning: another bloody mary
Lunch: buffalo burger with your preferred microbrewed Oktoberfest-style beer
Mid Afternoon: another Oktoberfest beer.
Pre-dinner Cocktail Hour: A Lustau Fino Sherry as an apertif.
Dinner: Tuscan-style Porterhouse with a fine Australian shiraz, in honor of John Howard’s election.
Dessert: Who screws around with dessert when one can open a bottle of Booker’s Choice, the finest bourbon on the planet? Poured neat, of course, and really not too much, given it is somewhewre beween 120-140 proof, depending on the batch. After all, one must leave room for the favored libation of the host of this forum, which leads to, when results start coming in….
Vodka, of course, and if you have not yet tried Tito’s Handmade Vodka, from Texas, well, what could be more appropriate? It really is terrific.
Note that one has had three good meals and 8 drinks (assuming the Shiraz is split with another person) over, say, 12 hours, before the vodka comes out to play. Thus, one should be well prepared for celebration or sorrow, depending on events.
It might not be the best day to operate heavy machinery, however…..
BTW, where did you get that nice electoral map?
This is what will happen tomorrow night.
In an omen of things to come, Bush will take NH. Later on it will be reported that PA is too close to call (it will eventually fall to Bush).
OH will go to Bush much earlier than expected as will every state from IN south to FL. Bush will take WI and IA along with HI just to stick the knife in. Kerry will pick up MI and MN along with the other states he already has.
Bush – 325 (revised from an earlier prediction)
Kerry – 213
Litigation will be rendered mute do to the lopsided EV count.
You can reference electoral-vote.com and Slate if you like or you can look at the behavior of the campaigns. One is buoyant (Bush) and one is not. Which one isn’t? The one calling Bush a coke head and telling America to wake up, the one polling to find out what to say about the OBL video.
To me it comes down to this…will the Midwest (OUR HEARTLAND) buy into the hand out Kerry Socialism and lower moral standard ideology….
The America I know says NO! I am counting on the good people of Wisc, Iowa,Ohio and Minnesota to put the Hip Hoppers and college commies to sleep!
Go on record with your wild guesses and rue the day you did for the rest of your life!
And the best part is, it's free!
Meanwhile, Steve Green has a round-up of the latest electoral college projections, as well as a projection of his own. And TalkLeft and friends chime in from the Valley of the Totally Confused.
For its part,…
Bush 300+ ECV/57% PV
And what color will you be using for Nader?
For Nader? Pink.
Official Prediction
I’ve got several posts outlining the reasons, so won’t elaborate too much here. Suffice to say, that the mre things change, the more they stay the same. Truly red states will stay red, blue will stay blue. So what of the “purple states”?. First we …
hip hoppers and college commies? i think the heartland can go f itself. they should be happy they get the disproportionate amount of EV votes they get that allow our elections to focus only on what they want/need and get over it if they lose out. frankly if the coasts have more people and vote overwhelmingly democratic, that’s just the way it is. sooner or later the system will correct itself and the “heartland” will submit to the will of the majority instead of wasting our entire election year on their concerns.
-a college commie
why do you have to stay sober?
you are the vodka pundit arent you?
ELECTORAL COLLEGE PROJECTIONS
All over the map, as you can see over at Les Jones
Jeff: sooner or later the system will correct itself and the “heartland” will submit to the will of the majority…
Ummmm, Jeff. . . I’m a gun owner in the heartland and I will never submit. If our country goes in the tank because of people like you that don’t care about right and wrong, I will take action.
My Predictions
I went over to Horserace @ MSNBC and fiddled with the electoral map. This is my prediction for how things will turn out on Tuesday night. I expect Bush to win and to win BIG. …
So, you’re following the money, eh? (Identical to Tradesports map…)
Me, I’m a touch more sanguine, and will go with 291-247. (HI and the one district in Maine flip. Does anyone know of an EC calculator that can handle splitting Maine (or Nebraska, or Colorado, for that matter)
Heartland-
And likely be outnumbered. And progressive ideals will run you over like they did the South during the civil war. I support your right as a gun owner and frankly don’t care if you own a gun. However I do care when your conservative religious based values invade my life. Keep your religion out of my life and I might vote to keep the government out of your wallet.
Predictions
Since we are now officially 24 hours away from the 2004 Presidential Election, I do believe it is prediction time. Aside, as for myself, I have already voted (first week of October) since I didn’t know what shape I was…
Jeff,
You need to spend a little of that college time re educating yourself on the Electoral College and the shift in votes. Some of those heartland states you besmirch have actually lost votes since 2000 while your beloved California gained.
Remember, the swing states are not decided by geography, but rather by how split the vote appears to be among the populace. While Florida got all the attention due to litigation, NH would have changed the 2000 outcome.
Here’s my prediction: A Bush electoral blow out when a few ‘blue’ states unexpectedly turn red. Hawaii will go for Bush as well.
And Cah LEE Fo NEE Yah – will be closer than expected.
Liveblogging the Election
I will be liveblogging the election returns tomorrow. I believe we're in for a surprise, and not as long a night as some believe. On my prediction, I'm with Jeff Goldstein:
For its part, protein wisdom sees it thus: Bush 270 plus; screw J…
If California is gaining EV votes, it’s doing so because of population growth. The argument being made isn’t one regarding the EC, it’s being made about how states in the “heartland” get more EV votes per capita than those liberal elitist states like anything north of Virginia on the East Coast, the Rust Belt states and the entire West Coast. People who argue to keep the EC says it keeps those heartland states as a matter of interest in politics. To me it gives disproportionate attention to states with fewer people than other states like California and NY. It lets those states define the election and our government when frankly their vote is not more or less important than mine. It’s because of that mentality that you have a supporters of the President pandering to Bible beaters that gays want to get married and Kerry will help them do it. Or that Kerry is going to take away your guns. I’m just of the idea that it should be one person, one vote, and the heartland gets a little too much influence for my liking.
Right and wrong does not necessarily have to do with the religion you are thinking of. I’m a Jew. I had a great aunt that fought Nazis in the forests of Poland. Although the Nazis may be stronger, I believe you fight anyway. I’m concerned by the revolutionary/anti-civilization trend I see among many anarchist youth of the left, while the rest just don’t care what our future holds. If I came across as a militia fundie, I apologize (though they would fight too).
Oops, my last post was directed to Jeff:
Keep your religion out of my life and I might vote to keep the government out of your wallet.
I’m sticking with 306-232 Bush. Admittedly Minnesota, Wisconsin, and New Mexico aren’t locks, but I think Iowa, Florida, and Ohio are definitely in the Bush camp. And Bush can still pick off Hawaii, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and/or New Hampshire.
Unless there is voting fraud on an unprecedented scale (here’s hoping there isn’t!), Ohio, Iowa, Nevada, and Florida aren’t still in play.
Observations this Election Season
Within the next 24 hours Americans (perhaps some illegals and ‘dead’ people) will be heading to the polls to elect the new dog catcher, city officials, Congressmen and Congresswomen and, I almost forgot, the President of United States for the next fo…
Thanks in advance for playing, Stephen. I don’t have cable television and I don’t want to listen to NPR, so I’ll be checking in regularly tomorrow.
Most of you are dreaming. Kerry is surging as the majority of the undercounted cell-phone only populations are mad as hell at the arrogant and incompetent incumbant. What is so great about perpetual war and colossal debt? He does give a nice warm feeling to the religious right, but he is pissing off the rest of the country (and the world…, but of course no one shoud ever care about that). Bush ought to have had it sewn up by now. -Carl
I’d like y’all to take a moment, relax your sphincter, and ponder the following.
Our troops are less safe. , Our Nation is rotting of corruption within and currency weakness abroad.
And you’re still gonna vote for This Guy.
Sucker!
Election Predictions
President:Bush: 48.9% – 296 EC votesKerry: 48.1% – 242 EC votesOthers: 3%Senate:Republicans: 53Democrats: 46Other: 1House:Republicans: 231Democrats: 204 More predictions from Stephen Green (with a roundup of others), James Joyner (ditto), and various R…
My Prediction(s)
Hey, slow down that bandwagon! I wanna hop on board. Here’s my prediction, an even 300 for Bush:
Here’s what I fear. Let’s face it folks; it could happen – 299 for Kerry:
I want to say Hawaii is going Bush, just for fun, but why pile o…
Election Alert: Blogs of War Prediction
I have a few different scenarios mapped out and while predictions in this race are risky sitting on the fence isn
The Final Slice: It’s the Election Day Toast-O-Meter
–Rounding-up, analyzing and handicapping the 2004 election–
Texas Toast or French Toast?Tracking the race to the White House.
FINALLY: It’s Time to Serve the Toast
After a campaign season that started in 1812 (ok, it actually started in ea…
Bad day to go ’round yanking on yer images-centric, emotional crank, Consequences. Choose another time and place to demonstrate such hysteria.
Gawd, Leftist teevee addicts make me sick.
Carl whines: “perpetual war and colossal debt.”
Children. Soundbite addled, hysterical, factless children…and they’re voting for President.
2004 America is proof that leftist evil and political incompetence and a complete inability to think and a complete avoidance of accountablity really can take down an entire country.
The debt, Carl, is the product of 35 years of unbridled socialist-minded entitlement spending. This “perpetual” war is the statistically single most successful military endeavor in history.
Go iron your dress or something, and leave the heavy lifting to others.
And the inevitable prediction
See also Les Jones’s Blogger Roundup. (Update, 3 November, 2:25 pm: Assuming 286-252 holds up, as it appears it will, the Prescience Award goes jointly to James Joyner at…
Winner of the Election Prediction
http://www.lesjones.com/posts/001431.shtml The final electoral vote tally is Bush 286, Kerry 252. Three bloggers predicted the results: Election Projection, Outside the Beltway, and VodkaPundit. The tiebreaker is the date of the prediction. Outside th…
I Demand a Recount!
Les Jones has announced the winner of his election prediction contest:
The final results are in, and the electoral vote tally is Bush 286, Kerry 252. Three bloggers predicted the results: Election Projection, Outside the Beltway, and VodkaPundit.
…