Caught this one on Drudge and did a little Googling:
The world is on the brink of a major flu epidemic
The world is on the brink of a major flu epidemic
this could be frighteningly accurate given what else happens last in 1918…the sox won the world series! shortage of flu shots, pandemic, the sox have killed us all! damn bostonians. kerry wasn’t enough, huh? ya had to wipe out a billion people too?
I think a new Superflu is kind of like “The Big One” hitting California. It’s going to happen some day, but almost anyone who definitively says it’s going to happen six months from now can pretty much be dismissed.
Of course, that’s what they said about Jor-El, too.
CDC already annouced that this years flu strains look very similar to last year, meaning a large outbreak or local epidemics unlikely.
If that’s the virus Karl Rove was working on to suppress voter turnout, he’s cutting it mighty fine.
Let the Bar call off its pit bulls, and our labs will be able to make all the flu vaccine we’ll need.
Look on the bright side. In thirteenth century Europe we had an environmental crisis. The available technology was highly dependent on wood and Europe was being deforested. The wages of peasants were held down by competion which resulted in a high level of human misery.
Fortunately the fourteenth century brough the Black Death. By the end of the century the plague had come through two or three times taking off nearly half the population. The pressure on the forests was diminished and real wages rose for the suddenly scarce labor force.
The thirteenth century is called the golden century while the fourteenth is considered the low point in European history. Yet the fifteenth century marks the beginning of the rise of the west.
There are something like six billion people on earth today. There were only five billion people on Earth just a dozen years ago. Frankly the world can lose a few billion people and the species, civilization, and everything else will be just fine. A world with five billion people is still a well populated world – you know this is true because all adults today lived in a five billion people world just a short while ago and no one wrote editorials about the crisis of underpopulation.
Of course I wouldn’t care to be one of those struck down but then again I don’t want to die at all.
Not correct, Pat. According to current estimates, there are around 6.4 billion people today.
The population hit 6 billion in 1999, 5 billion in 1987 and 4 billion in 1971.
My source is here.
There was a report out of China a couple months back saying the bird flu had jumped species, from chickens to people. That is the assumptive trigger for the worst flu epidemics in history.
I think this guy read “The Stand” too many times.
That said, my grandmother told me about the great flu epidemic when I was a little kid (she died in 1976). She was a teenager then, and didn’t catch it; got pressed into service as an emergency nurse in Montgomery, Alabama. She didn’t go into any detail back then, but the stuff relayed later through my dad would curl your hair.
Y’know, neither here nor there, but in the late summer of 1918, on the way to that Red Sox title, Babe Ruth himself was laid up real bad with the flu that killed so many others, and the Boston papers even reported him dead at one point. Fortunately for Ruth, he was 23 years old, strong as an ox, and (unlike many young male flu victims) not weakened by months living in a trench with poor nutrition and hygeine.
Okay the proposition is frightening but highly unlikely.
And there aren’t “a couple hundred million people” with HIV. There are at most 40+ million people worldwide with HIV/AIDS–most of which are in Africa. So lets not scare people too bad there Stephen. The numbers are high…but not that high. (Source)
TO: Stephen Green
RE: As With….
…that popular bumper sticker amongst inter-planetary exploration types….
The Big Rock Cometh.
It’s not a question of “if”. It’s a question of “when”.
We don’t know when we’ll experience another major hit on the earth from a comet or asteroid. It could be in another 60 million years. It could be today. Odds favor within 60 million years. But then we saw Shoemaker-Levy smack into Jupiter. And if it had happened here, instead, we would not be having this charming conversation.
Likewise with a pandemic. Every year the target population increases and lives more tightly compacted. Every year the ‘bugs’ get a little more sophisticated. Even now, our much-vaunted hospitals are performing as hi-tech petri dishes for a new strain of bacteria or virus. Not to mention that mess over in Hong Kong, where people and animals live on top of each other.
Dmitry is right that the number of casualties will be high. But I’m not sure he’s right about it being this year…..
….unless he’s the apocalypes freak from Twelve Monkeys.
PBS “American Experience” did a well done segment on the 1917-1918 Inluenza Pandemic and it was quite nasty In fact, it serves as a model for what might happen with a biological weapon.
The other point that prompted me to post is we would not even have a flu vaccine “shortage” if we didn’t have the media frenzy over the story. The actual rate of at risk people getting the vaccine last year was still under 50%… Wa we now have is the Beenie Baby effect of more people actually wanting the vaccine snce it has been pegged as in shot supply.
Plenty of folks would have chosen to not get their shots because they hate getting them.
…say it’s a virus. Which is where I’d put MY money. What can you do? Not a whole heck of a lot.
With the ‘good doctor’s’ prediction, they would not have time, in 6 months, to come up with and distribute a vaccine. And allopathic medicine has no known treatment to cure a viral infection.
Personally? I recommend learning more about homeopathic medicine. It’s been practiced in Europe for the last century. I’ve found it very effective in dealing with viral infections, e.g., flu.
P.S. Do you think this guy may have been working on some Rainbow Six-ish activity?
Woohooo! Jobs are on the way. Social security, no problem. Medicare, who ever’s left, covered.
One little problem with flu vaccines is that it takes months to produce enough to be effective in controling a pandemic. Another problem is that the vaccine must match the actual strain of flu. Now, with a pandemic like ’17-’18, what apparently happened was that there was a dual species jump (meaning, doubly mutated) virus bird->swine->human. You would have to forsee this happening months in advance to be able to produce the vaccine needed. No such multiple species jumping mutated virus CAN be predicted, so no conventional flu vaccine can reasonably be produced.
One other little known data point on the last great pandemic was that it primarily targeted the young and healthy, which is not that portion of the population that normally receives flu vaccinations.
Therefore — since we can’t know the actual strain of the pandemic virus, and can’t assume that the virus would actually attack those we think would be most at risk, the flu vaccine which is in current shortage wouldn’t be effective against the sort of pandemic being predicted.
Get a grip people and do the following:
Start / Run / calc.exe
This “expert” says: “that U.S. researchers possessed data suggesting that if a pandemic hits, up to 700,000 people will fall ill in the United States.”
Do the math. That’s .0029% of our population of 240 million. Assume they ALL die (highly unlikely, but assume it for a moment.)
David Beatty is correct: Current estimates of global population are in the neighborhood of 6.4 billion.
If the ratio holds, and everyone this guy thinks could GET the flu DIES from it, only 18-19 million would.
Drop in the bucket (eh, when compared to his prediction of a billion deaths.)
You forgot one other key difference between 1918 and now, Stephen. Back then, the prospective payoff for a scientist making sensational claims was a just a bit lower. Today it’s a just a bit higher, even for a reputable guy, even if (especially if) it doesn’t pan out. Paul Erlich makes a very comfortable living, I’m sure.
Gee, the sustainability crowd’s wet dream.
Saver of social security and jumpstarting the greatest transfer of wealth this country has ever seen. Ushering in the new enlightenment.
And I say this even tho my grandfather lost his sisters in the pandemic.
Man, I am really getting cynical in my middle age.
Is this a bug or a feature?
Not to play on words….
Christ on a crutch, people. Just wash your hands more often. With soap. Don’t cough or sneeze with your mouth gaping open like a dead walleye.
In short, stop being such filthy bastards and you’ll be OK.
My grandmother lost her 20 year old brother in basic training outside of Boston, less than 2 days after he wrote a letter saying he was feeling a bit “under the weather” but not sick enough to go “see the quack”.
Death is gruesome, by the way, basically compared to drowning within your own body.
In Philadelphia, at the height of the contagious period,they also staged a long planned parade for US Bonds that gathered together 10′s of thousands of people in close confines. A couple of days later the epidemic peaked. Some areas of town had deaths on every street. And this was pre funeral home days as well, so often the family would gather to mourn, passing on the pathogens even more. Aveage time from feeling fine to death was 2.5 days.
RE: More On History
My understanding of the history of the war between allopathy (read as AMA) and homeopathy (for all intents and purposes banned in the US), is as follows:
Before the Swine Flu pandemic (SFP) of 1918:
 Homeopaths and allopaths both had colleges in the US.
 There were both kinds of pracitioners in the country and abroad, especially in Germany where homeopathy was developed.
 During the course of the SFP, 90% of the population considered “at risk” who were treated by allopaths died. Whereas 90% of that same group treated by homoepaths lived.
 During the 20s, the allopaths began a program to rid the nation of “quack” healers by pushing legislation requiring people who practice medicine to be licensed by the state. They relied heavily on the deaths of the SFP as evidence there were way to many quacks out there.
 At the same time, the allopaths began “buying up” the mortgages on colleges that taught medicine.
 Colleges who were ‘indebted’ to the allopaths were told what form of medicine to teach. Three guesses. First two don’t count.
And here we are today. From what I see of the medical industry, the biggest problem with the high cost of medicine is that there is little-to-no competition. The medical schools keep the population of trained professionals at a minimum in order to keep up the price of services.
This is compounded by the advent of the so-called ‘major medical’ insurance policy, which medical industry organizations, i.e., hospitals, see as a ‘blue-sky’ project.
But, back to the Pandemic of Tomorrow….
If it does occur, the medical insitutions will be overwhelmed by the numbers this doctor predicts. Everyone will be pretty much on their own.
As I’ve stated before, if I can identify the symptoms properly and have the proper materia medica on hand, I can squelch my cases of the flu or a cold within 15 minutes. In cases where I do not have a good match between symptoms and a materia medica, taking the next best materia medica significantly reduced the severity of the symptoms.
I’ve read Chuck Pelto’s comments in SSDB, One Hand Clapping and a myriad other sites. He’s funny and right, mostly.
But I gotta say, this advocacy of homeopathy is over the line. Not to pee in your pool, Chuck, but homeopathy is bunk — pure and simple.
RE: Ya Know…
“…homeopathy is bunk — pure and simple.” — Klug
…I thought the same thing. My undergrad work was pre-med microbiology.
Then ex-#2 solved a problem for me with it.
Back in my days as a grunt on active duty, come the Summer my feet would burn like all get out at night. I’d have to soak them in water, often several times, before I could go to sleep. Kept the pan under the bed.
She asked me about this. Went to her witch’s book of materia medica. Asked me some questions. Gave me two sugar tabs with sulfer in them.
5 minutes later the burning was gone. 5 minutes after that, I began the best sleep I’d had in weeks. Furthermore, the problem seems to have gone away completely.
And, as for the possibiity of my succumbing to the famous placebo affect…do six-month olds have that?
When our daughter went from breast-milk to formula the new food substance, along with new micro-flora in her stomach and intestines, caused her to wake up screaming her head off. Ex-#2 broke out the witch’s book again. We had to force the little-one’s mouth open to get the tablets in. And hold it closed so they would dissolve before she’d spit them out.
5 minutes later, we had our happy baby back again.
Yeah. I was a skeptic too…..at one time.
P.S. And, just keep it in the back of your mind, during the Pandemic of Tomorrow (catchie name that), if you can’t get into see the doctor because he’s too busy or already dead himself….
….you can still turn to this technique.
Personally, I recommend the book by Dr. Panos, Homeopathic Medicine at Home. It’s got a good table system in it for recognizing symptoms. And the most commonly used materia medica can be had in a kit of about 40 vials of 200 pills each for less than $100 from Standard Homeopathic.
Oh…great for first aid too. Got a second degree burn while cooking for a church function. While preparing dishes for delivery to the guests, someone placed a stainless steel pan, right out of the oven, in front of me. Didn’t warn me where it had come from. And I grabbed it to move it out of my way. BIIIIIG mistake. Reverted back to my infantry form and blistered the air with rude comments while dancing about. It got real quiet in the kitchen….
I apologized. Didn’t have anything to take for it until I got home. Cantharis. Fifteen minutes later the burning pain was gone. The blister came and went remarkably fast, too.
Hmmm. Head of virology institute makes announcement that we’ll all die unless we give his institute billions of dollars to stop it. Guess that’s how the Russians do Pledge Week.
Chuck, thanks for the fluffy-bunny anecdotes.
But they are completely irrelevant. “Allopathy”, or rather, medicine, has been tested. It works.
Homeopathy has been tested. It doesn’t work. Flat-out doesn’t work. No effects whatsoever. Zip, zilch, nada.
It is also completely inconsistent with everything known about physics, chemistry and biology. It is complete and utter baloney. Bunk. Nonsense. Flim-flam. Out-and-out fraud. And you are one of those born every minute. Soon parted from your money and all that.
Not all moonbats belong to the political left.
I’m reminded here of James Taranto’s insistence that Creationism isn’t obvious nonsense, when to anyone with the slightest knowledge of biology or geology it is possibly the most ludicrous intellectual fraud ever perpetrated.
ummm…i wonder if Dmitry knows more than he’s sharing here? This thing is exactly what Pasechnik was working on when he died – some say murdered. i don’t even want ot think about it.
Gotta agree with Pixy Misa here. Homeopathy has been one of my pet irritations for years. Every shred of evidence for it is entirely anecdotal. I recommend this article for further reading:
TO; Pixy Misa
RE: Stuff & Nonsense
Fine with me, Pixy. See the above comments.
You can blow off my report with denigration all you like, but that doesn’t change what I’ve experienced.
By the by, I understand a good number of practioners of veterinary science use it too. I guess they’re flim-flamming the animals.
Oh…and about money. Which costs more?
$7 for 200 pills that you use only 5 of and you keep the rest against a possible reoccurence? Or $60 for 30 pills you use all up?
Where did you learn math anyway?
P.S. On the other hand, maybe God smiles on me more than He does on you.
TO: Sarah Brabazon-Biggar
RE: Ditto for You
“Homeopathy has been one of my pet irritations for years.” — Sarah Brabazon-Biggar
As I always say, everybody ought to have a hobby. Too bad some people chose one so ‘distressing’.
“Every shred of evidence for it is entirely anecdotal.” — Sarah Brabazon-Biggar
And your point here is…..what? We’re all liars?
Oh well…as my father would say, you can lead a whore to culture, but you can’t maker her think.
You don’t have to do anything you don’t want to. Just remember my advice to Klug, when the time comes.
As I said, the next pandemic akin to the Swine Flu of 1918 is not a matter of if, it’s a matter of when.
RE: On the Other Hand
Or, here is an interestng experiment you can run in your own “clinic”.
Ever burn yourself at home? Something in the kitchen? Rather painful, right?
Here’s what you can do to prove or disprove this business for yourself.
Go to a good vitamin/heatlh food store and get a vial of cantharis. Only about $6. Keep it in your medicine cabinet.
Next time you get a bad burn. Take 4 of the tablets. See if the burning sensation goes away in a few minutes.
If you wish to expedite the experiment, go grab yourself a hot stainless steel pan, right out of the oven. Don’t let go immediately. Try to hold it for three or four seconds.
TO: Rory B. Bellows
RE: Interesting Thoughts
“i wonder if Dmitry knows more than he’s sharing here?” — Rory B. Bellows
My thoughts too (see earlier comments). I was reminded of the last sequence of Twelve Monkeys, when I read this.
“This thing is exactly what Pasechnik was working on when he died – some say murdered” — Rory B. Bellows
Who is Pasechnik?
Oh….found him. Very interesting. Reminds me of a cross amongst three Tom Clancy novels; Executive Orders, Rainbow Six (for plagues) and Teeth of the Tiger (the murder by stroke part along with the interesting series of deaths of similar people around the same time).
Here’s the link I found about him and a whole bunch of other top-notch microbiologists who died about the same time…..
[Chance favors the prepared mind. -- Louis Pasteur, father of Microbiology]
David R Beatty says I’m wrong.
“Not correct, Pat. According to current estimates, there are around 6.4 billion people today.
The population hit 6 billion in 1999, 5 billion in 1987 and 4 billion in 1971.”
I said there were six billion (or so) alive today and that most of us could remember a world where there were five billion. Rather than being wrong I think David has reinforced my point.
I remember 1987 pretty well. I don’t recall being tortured by feelings that the world was underpopulated. Therefore if some super flu were to bring the population back to its 1987 level it would not be so bad from a species perspective. Of course there would be billions of people who grieved for their lost relatives but the species itself would be fine.
In oil spills or red tides often an animal population will sustain 50% losses. From a environmental perspective it hardly matters. Robust species rebound quickly. The species of Man is very robust.
Remember the famous aphorism of Everett Dirkson “A billion here a billion there. Soon it adds up to real money”. Or Stalin’s “The death of one man is a tragedy. The death of a million is a statistic”.
On a personal scale I get would upset if a drunken driver came across the center line at me. But the scenario of the super flu is not on a personal scale. It is on a global, ecological scale. At that scale, I repeat, even a billion deaths is fairly inconsequential. The human species is robust. We would recover quickly.
Consider that we as a species have had experience with major die offs. As McNeil has argued there have been a number of major epidemics and pandemics. Some of these led to long term declines in civilization but most did not.
The Plague of Athens ended Pericles but not Periclean civilization. The Justinian Plague didn’t end the Byzentines. It may be that smallpox and/or measels brough about the fall of Rome (the Antonine Plague) and the fall of Han China. But China recovered soon enough and reached new heights in the Sung Dynasty.
The West languished for a millenium. But while a viral pandemic may have started what we call the Dark Ages (the fall of Western Rome) other factors kept the West from rebounding. Finally when the West did arise again it was after the Black Death plagues.
The lesson of history seems to be mixed. A major die off can have long lasting negative effects but usually the effects are short lived and sometimes possibly benificial.
RE: Or, In Other Words….
The gene-pool could use a little chlorine? Now and then?
Or maybe it’s that business about a good apple tree needs to be pruned back every now and then to improve production.
Actually, if I recall correctly from conversations with my pharmacist brother and nurse mother (my apologies, I haven’t the time today to research on this), there’s some sort of cycle that the flu usually goes through. And I believe we’re about 30+ years overdue for it. So yeah, it’s a distinct possibility….not that I’m looking forward to it.
But after all, Mother Nature usually gets her way. There’s a reason our bodies start falling apart at middle age, people. We’re not really meant to live beyond our reproductive years. Darwin did have a point.
RE: Thinking of the Pandemic of Tomorrow
I wonder how well our medical professionals, the nurses, the doctors, the hospital staff, will bear up under their being on the proverbial ‘front line’.
Most of them, as I perceive them, are not in there because they are willing to go the extra mile in order to save their fellow man. I see most of them as being in there for the money. You know….’mercenaries’. And the money, today, is REAL GOOD. Just paid off a medical bill today; stress test, 30 minutes, $1100.
But, when the battle comes to their little room. When people are being mowed down like ants under a magnifying glass and they are supposed to be the ones providing aid…. will they fight or flee?
In due time, we’ll find out. If it’s the latter, I wonder how Klug and the harpies around will get the medicine they need to stay alive.
[Death: 'Chilled Out' to room temperature.]
Yeah, we’re all liars. The human brain is remarkable in its ability to deceive itself. The bottom line is: don’t trust anecdotal evidence from even the most sober and respectable of witnesses.
Double blind trials are elegant in their simplicity. They remove the factor of human desire and hope from the equation.
Homeopathy fails double blind trials every time.
Those little sugar pills are effective only when they have the force of human faith behind them.
TO: Sarah Brabazon-Biggar
“Those little sugar pills are effective only when they have the force of human faith behind them.” — Sarah Brabazon-Biggar
Tell that to a six-month old (see fluff-bunny anecdote, above). Or a horse.
But you could be right. It might have to do with ‘faith’. And, as I commented to Pixy Misa, maybe God does smile on me more than He does you.
P.S. Or…as I suggested, you could run your own test. Got a stainless steel skillet and a hot oven?
And, as I commented to Pixy Misa, maybe God does smile on me more than He does you.
Wow, your God must be rather petty to smite people because they don’t believe in snake oil.
By the way, veterinarians can be gulled into believing wacky stuff just like anyone else. If my dog’s vet recommended homeopathy, I’d switch vets.
P.S. Your “experiment” suggestion is ridiculous. It’s called post hoc propter ergo hoc.
Many events follow sequential patterns without being causally related. For example, you have a cold, so you drink fluids and two weeks later your cold goes away. You have a headache so you stand on your head and six hours later your headache goes away…
“However, sequences don’t establish a probability of causality any more than correlations do. Coincidences happen. Occurring after an event is not sufficient to establish that the prior event caused the later one. To establish the probability of a causal connection between two events, controls must be established to rule out other factors such as chance or some unknown causal factor. Anecdotes aren’t sufficient because they rely on intuition and subjective interpretation. A controlled study is necessary to reduce the chance of error from self-deception.
TO: Sarah Brabazon-Biggar
RE: Getting It Wrong Again, Are We?
“Wow, your God must be rather petty to smite people because they don’t believe in snake oil.” — Sarah Brabazon-Biggar
Since when is your denial of Him tantamont to His smiting you?
Remember, babe, your the one who brought “faith” into the picture. If you don’t like it, I’d recommend you stay away from it.
“By the way, veterinarians can be gulled into believing wacky stuff just like anyone else. If my dog’s vet recommended homeopathy, I’d switch vets.” — Sarah B-B
If it works, you’re suggesting the forget about it. Interesting approach that.
RE: My Suggestion
“Your “experiment” suggestion is ridiculous.” — Sarah B-B
So, then, don’t try it. But please allow me to use it whenever I make that kind of mistake in the kitchen. Happens about once a year, albeit not QUITE as severe as my previous fluffy-bunny story. Works fine for me. In the mean time, I counsel getting a vial of Cantharis and keeping it handy. It only costs about $6-7 for 200-250 pills. And, I’ve found, it works a whole lot better than anything else for such burns.
Just keep it around and, when it happens to someone you care for, try it. What could a little ‘sugar’ hurt anyway? Except, perhaps, someone’s ego and personal agenda.
RE: Double-Blind Tests
Ya know. I’ve been thinking about this.
Got a reference for one of these ‘tests’? I’d like to review their methodology.
My point here is that the identification of an ailment and the proper materia medica to deal with it is much more individualized than standard allopathic approaches.
In the allopath world, they say, “Oh. You’ve got that. Therefore, we’ll give you this.” Hands you a perscription, like the perscription they handed to EVERYONE else that they think had ‘that’.
In homeopathy, the symptoms of a given ailment can vary from one person to the next. Maybe not dramatically, but significantly. That variation may call for a different materia medica.
Case in point. The common cold and/or flu.
Patient with that goes to a doctor and gets a perscription for some broad-spectrum antibiotic. The anti-biotic won’t do a thing about the cold or flu. There are no cures for viral infections known to allopathy. It’s just a placebo and helps keep down secondary, opportunistic, bacterial infections.
Patient goes home and takes anti-histamines, pepto-bimol, etc., etc., etc.
There are hundreds of cold and flu viruses. Allopaths treat them as one-size fits all.
Homeopaths isolate the symptoms much more carefully. Things as what is the color of coryza and sputum, if any. Sound of the cough; deep, shallow, hacking, etc., etc., etc. Color of stool and consistency. All this an more.
It all goes into the analysis of what materia medica is selected.
I have never met a allopathic pracitioner with the patience to do that kind of study on a case. I suspect they are too interested in what amounts to “piece-work” medicine; how many patients can I see in a day. The more patients, the more money.
So, these tests you mention. I wonder the following:
 What was the methodology for identifying an ailment?
 What was the materia medica selected to deal with the ailment?
 Was it the same materia medica for each patient not given a placebo as part of the control?
 Or was it a materia medica selected based on a thorough study of their symptoms?
All these would figure on the quality of the test. If they tried the one-size fits all approach, I’d have serious doubts as to the quality of the test.
If you could cite something, I’d appreciate it.
RE: Anecdotal Evidence
Well…as I’ve suggested, and you rejected, you can try it yourself. Just give it a little time. Somewhere along the line, you’ll get a bad burn (cantharis). Or a bad cut (arnica or aconite, I can’t recall which, off the top of my head). Or a bee/wasp sting (apis).
My friends and associates who know me have been discovering it’s effectiveness and are now practicing it themselves.
I recall hearing about one of those tests run a couple of years ago.
Funded by a pharmacutical company, as I recall. It came out saying much what you say.
No conflict of interest there, now. Right?
P.P.S. Got a little time here while the other computer processes a bunch of data.
About anecdotal evidence.
Are you familiar with Denver International Airport (DIA)? And how it came to be located where it is? Northeast of Denver proper?
Funny thing about that location. The locals who lived in the area were telling the people surveying the various places for a location that they shouldn’t build the new airport there.
Well, they told the surveyors and such that they had an AWFUL lot of thunderstorms and tornado funnel clouds there every year, during the season.
Well. The wise people who were making the decisions, wrote those comments off as “anecdotal evidence”.
So the city bought the property and built the airport.
Meanwhile, over in Boulder, CO, a few miles to the west of the construction, those brilliant kids at NOAA were testing out a new radar; Doppler. The site for the testing was thought excellent because of the flukey Summer weather thunder storms.
Guess what the people a NOAA discovered….
….those old coots living to the northeast of Denver were RIGHT!
They get more severe thunderstorms and funnel clouds than any other part of the area around Denver.
Those old coots….right again. And those people who blow-off ‘anecdotal evidence’….well…they cost money.
Here are a couple studies. They’re easy to find.
I’m not going to argue with someone who doesn’t accept the most basic principles of scientific, empirical testing. There’s no common ground here. All I can do is refer you to
and hope you read them.
“Homeopathy may be defined as a specious mode of doing nothing. While it waits on the natural progress of disease and the restorative tendence of nature on the one hand, or the injurious advance of disease on the other, it supplies the craving for activity, on the part of the patient and his friends, by the formal and regular administration of nominal medicine. Although homeopathy will, at some future time, be classed with historical delusions.” — Jacob Bigelow, M.D, 1858
Good luck, and please don’t rely on homeopathy for anything life-threatening.
I’m a Christian, BTW. I don’t think my salvation depends on whether I believe in homeopathy or not, as you seem to imply.
TO: Sarah Brabazon-Biggar
RE: Keep the Faith, Baby
“I’m a Christian, BTW.” — Sarah B-B
Good on you.
But as some Wag said, “A tree is known by its fruit.”
Lots of people claim the appellation. Few of them actually talk the talk AND walk the walk.
“I don’t think my salvation depends on whether I believe in homeopathy or not, as you seem to imply.” — Sarah B-B
And neither do I. But, you keep brining it up. So, show me where I said such, when I suggested that God may smile on me more than on someone else? You have to work out your salvation with Him. Not with me.
Again, I remind you that YOU were the one to bring ‘faith’ into the discussion.
Thanks for the urls. I’ll check them out.
RE: A Losing Battle, Neh?
“I’m not going to argue with someone who doesn’t accept the most basic principles of scientific, empirical testing. There’s no common ground here.” — Sarah B-B
No body is asking you to argue anything. I just lay out my observations and you can do with them as you deem appropriate.
As for the scientific method. I’m a big fan of it. Or did you miss that business about my undergrad work?
However, I’m not going to tell myself I’m hallucinating when I have experiences as described above. Even starting out as skeptical as you are now.
Then again, I could tell you of my experiences within the realm of Christianity. Would you believe me if I told you my life had been saved by what amounts to Divine intervention? Once while plummeting out of a night sky with a malfunctioning parachute and again in a tangle with an 18-wheeler on an interstate one winter’s night?
Couldn’t prove either of those with the scientific method to save my soul, let alone yours. But I was there. I know what happened. And I know that if I had not responded to what was given to me, in what would have been the last few seconds of my life, I would not be here carrying on this pleasant conversation with you today.
There’s more to this world than can be proven with the scientific method.
[You haven't REALLY lived until you've been born again.]
Chuck, your experiences, such as they are, are anecdotes. I have a nice round file here for storing anecdotes in.
But it all comes back to this: Medicine, real medicine, is tested, and it works. It works when you use it on animals, it works when you use it against cultivated bacteria in a petri dish. And we know how it works, and why. And when, and how much, and so on.
Homeopathy on the other hand, has anecdotes. That’s it. Every scientific test of homeopathy has shown that it is indistinguishable from placebo.
And apart from that, as I said, it flat-out contradicts what we know about physics, chemistry and biology. Homeopathy can’t possibly work, so it’s rather comforting that it doesn’t.
Which just goes to show that you don’t have the faintest clue what the scientific method is. Because the scientific method never proves anything. The scientific method is all about disproving things.
Get yourself over to the JREF forums (James Randi’s site). They’ll get your head on straight for you.
TO: Pixy Misa
“…your experiences, such as they are, are anecdotes. I have a nice round file here for storing anecdotes in.” — Pixy Misa
…tell that to the bozos who built DIA in what amounts to tornado alley along the Front Range. (see anecdotes, above).
P.S. The next time you hear about ‘Weather Delays’ at DIA in the Summer, think of me.
P.P.S. Better yet, make that WHENEVER you hear of such, instead of just “the next time”.
TO: Sarah Brabazon-Biggar
Speaking of christian ‘faith’. I read about a chapter of that Book a night before going to sleep. Helps get my mind away from data structures and algorythms
Last night, after my days comments to you regarding ‘faith’, ‘homeopathy’ and my ‘testimony’. I was at John 3 in my latest pass through the new part of that Book.
The first part, starting around verse 9, struck me as being very similar to what we’ve been dealing with here.
Those who have eyes, let them read. Or something like that.
[Coincidence: When God works a miracle and doesn't get the credit. Small ones apply as well.]