About That Thing I Said Back in May. . .
Pollster John Zogby surprised the political world back in April with a long-range prediction that John Kerry would defeat George W. Bush for president. On Monday this week, Zogby told me, he changed his mind. He now thinks the president is more likely to be re-elected because he has reinforced support from his base, including married white women.
. . .
The long, tortuous presidential contest has come down to who the ”security mom” thinks can best protect her family against terrorism. Based on current polling data, Bush has won that argument in the face of Kerry’s relentless attacks. That explains why the Democrat this week was not talking about health care or other standby issues of his party, but was trying to pierce Bush’s security shield by harping on the disappearance of munitions in Iraq.
Well, we all know how well that’s likely to work.
Zogby has two different reputations: 1. He was the most accurate in 2000. 2. He’s partisan for Democrats.
My read on Zogby is that these two reputations are not contradictory. Rep #2 is a lot more powerful is rep #1 is true. I get the feeling that in the last week Zogby always makes his best accurate guess — and before that last week his numbers might be just a bit … tilted.
Just a thought.
TO: Stephen Green
RE: This “Explosive” Issue….
…is a verification of the old Army adage….
“Things are never as good nor as bad as initially reported.”
Now, reports are coming in that the UN planted the stroy. And that it’s not 380 tons of RDX-HMX but only 3 tons.
The dust hasn’t settled yet. But when it does, I suspect we’ll see the UN and the so-called major media standing there with a sheepish expression on their faces.
Regards,
Chuck(le)
Z For Zogby
Pollster John Zogby was the first to say that the election was Kerry’s to lose, way back in April. Of course, there are reasons why Zogby would be pulling for Kerry: they’re both on the left-hand side of the aisle,…
Again, even if this bogus story had been TRUE, it would have caused attention to focus on terrorism and the war in general, and this isn’t where Kerry wants to be. That’s the point Zogby makes. Kerry never could get off the subject.
I always thought Kerry would lose big time (this is not the same as Bush winning), but damned if his hasn’t been the most incompetent campaign run in a long time.
Zogby comes around
Pollster John Zogby has changed his mind:Pollster John Zogby surprised the political world back in April with a long-range prediction that John Kerry would defeat George W. Bush for president. On Monday this week, Zogby told me, he changed his…
James: “I get the feeling that in the last week Zogby always makes his best accurate guess — and before that last week his numbers might be just a bit … tilted.”
The secret herbs and spices that go into Zogby’s polls are a mystery. If you trust him you’re just guessing, and if you don’t trust him you’re also just guessing. How can you know if what he’s doing is valid or not? You can’t. He also does Internet polls, which to me says this is a guy who’s not hung up on all his results being genuine.
Personally I like Gallup polls. They move around more than the others, but at least you know what’s in that pie. You know you can get very consistent results if you fiddle with the data …
Beltway Traffic Jam
The daily linkfest:
Tim Cavanaugh tells of the Marine who liked President Bush more than his girlfriend.
Eugene Volokh and Rick Hasen reflect on stupid Ohio Electors.
Spoons has the latest from the world of collegiate fascism.
King of Fools ha…
If the Panhandle and the west of FLA had voted, Zogby would have been wrong.
Harris had sent out a memo to the networks reminding them the polls close at 8 PM EST.
With all the crap we’ve seen over the past 4 years, I’m wondering if it was fixed then, too.
And Zogby must have really gritted his teeth when he acknowledged that. I watched Sabato pull back on Fox, actuall posted about it here.
They were calling for Kerry wayyyy back in the spring.
We owe the Viet Nam vets BIG TIME! Took them 30 years, but they just might be avenged.
Took them 30 years, but they just might be avenged.
Hadn’t considered that… Now that I have, the thought genuinely warms my heart. Few people have been as denigrated as Vietnam War vets.
Hmmm, oil drops $5 in 2 days?
Via Drudge.
OT.. whoever was running the speculative attack on oil decided to cut his losses.
but, but, Mr. Soros would never do a thing like that!
John Zogby has changed his mind
He now thinks Bush will win.
I haven’t seen anyone write just how “deja vu all over again” Kerry’s Iraq war position/strategy is relative to Vietnam.
It’s almost as if the KE04 campaign figured it couldn’t beat the Repubs on domestic issues or the economy. So they bet instead on the MSM “drip dripping” bad Iraq news day in and day out (or even making some up, if there wasn’t enough REAL bad news..) to turn the American public and sentiment completely against the war and hope to oust Bush that way – essentially the same thing that happened with Vietnam (of course, it took a much longer timeframe, b/c back then we didn’t have cable news 24/7 or the internet, so it’s now sped up by orders of magnitude).
Kerry’s one consistent, universal position: war is always a mess – it launched his political career after Vietnam, and it’s the way they bet the KE04 campaign, too.
So Kerry is making up this horrific news out of Iraq? The diabolical bastard. Well, I guess since he made up his three Purple Hearts and scammed his way to a Bronze and Silver Star, anything’s possible.
Christ on a crutch. Iraq is a colossal fuckup BECAUSE of the abysmal leadership of the President. And you think the citizens of our Republic don’t know it? They’re well aware. Watch the polls.
Strangely enough, Zogby was on Stewart’s Daily Show tonight saying Kerry would win. As I recall he was relying at least in part on the CW about undecideds breaking for the challenger, which seems strange coming from someone who really ought to know better.
I don’t know about his polling record — although I think he’s had some pretty major misses — but he certainly never comes across as your neutral observer type on the tube.
In ancient times, people used to divine future events by looking at the pattern of birds in flight, the entrails of animals, or the pattern of cracks in charred bones. In our enlightened age, we have moved on to consulting pollsters, who in the final week appear to be putting their personal biases aside and trying to get on the side of the candidate who’s more likely to win.:)
Check this out. Sydney Zion is such a huge partisan liar!!! http://www.nydailynews.com/news/ideas_opinions/story/247133p-211694c.html Zion quotes Zogby “I said Bush was winning, I didn’t say I thought he’d win. On Monday, he was indeed looking good. But on Tuesday, things changed. Kerry, in that one day, picked up 5 points.” Check out Zogby’s daily tracking for this week.
http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=911 Does anyone know this idiots e-mail address?
Not quite related to the post, but I live in Memphis Tenn, and I’ve started to see and hear some 527 ads that are downright vicious. One I heard on the radio was about bin Laden’s family getting “whisked out of the country by W… maybe they couldn’t have helped us find him, but now we’ll never know.”
The TV ad showed a debate pitting W’s “Big Business” supporters against Kerry’s “Family Values”. The last bit showed a guy in suit under the caption “Big Business” who said “George W Bush allows us to get away with polluting the environment and making the air unbreathable.” Cut to a young black kid with an asthma inhaler…
FOUL in every since of the word.
The Non-Reality-Based Community
It really is true that Bushies are simply not a “reality-based community”. The [White House] aide said that guys like…