Wargaming the Electoral College
September 27th, 2004 - 10:17 am
This week, Bush has another Florida-proof majority. Pennsylvania has slipped away, but I’m not sure it was ever really Bush’s. His one-week lead there was so slim, that I should probably have never bothered coloring it red. Same goes for Oregon. It’s red this week, but only by the barest of majorities. On the other hand, I’ve given New Mexico to Kerry, even though his lead there now looks as weak as Bush’s in Oregon.
Only five more of these to go, each and every Monday, before the Big Day.
UPDATE: Speaking of Florida-proof majorities, give Electoral-Vote.com‘s new projection a look. They give Florida to Kerry, and the election to Bush.
…the neat thing about electoral-vote.com is that there’s a day-by-day animated gif of the EC projections at
http://electoral-vote.caida.org/
With that said, I’m less confident in the projections- a lot of the polls they use are Zogby, and I’m not sure if they’re the serious ones (which I do consider credible), or the ‘interactive’ ones (which I don’t).
Please Clarify, you have NJ blue in the map, red to the side. I would figure with your numbers you are saying Jersey for Bush, but want to check.
Wow… Wisconsin as strongly Bush and California as weak for Kerry? Never thought I’d see those.
You have a 66 electoral vote lead for the President, and when I allocate the closest of states (except for the 19 electoral votes I wuss out on shading right now) I have it a 63 electoral vote gap. Looks like we have the race sized up quite similarly.
A quicky point- you have NJ colored blue on your map, but in the abbreviation list for the small sized atlantic states you have it colored red.
Rosignol, if you are interested give my site a whirl– I offer views both with and without Zogby Interactive (my main view does not use them).
I don’t know why NJ shows red on the sidebar – but its votes are in the Kerry column.
There are five more of these EC maps, but the next two are the ones that count. The next projections will follow the first debate, and the second will reflect the debate about the first debate.
If Kerry remains in this much trouble two weeks from today, Democrats will begin to divert their resources away from the presidential contest and into the contested Senate races. The left-wing 527′s will try to keep the margin down by going Michael Moore full bore. Kerry has only one debate and 14 days to pull this election out if your projections are accurate.
Teresa Heinz Kerry talks in her sleep
THK: "Yes, God, you may have a serving of creme brule. One. But when you're finished, I expect you to fix the polls in those odious battleground states, is that clear? Now off with you. Terry needs her me time."
I’m shuddering to think about it. How is it possible to not find someone who could beat Bush? Seriously, I’m not sure you could have picked a better scenario to go into this election with and to manage to blow this is just beyond me.
The side bar is obviously pointing to the wrong state NH instead of NJ
Electoral-vote.com has Mississippi and South Carolina as “weak Bush”? Please. If Bush wins by fewer than 25 in either, I’ll eat my shorts.
Bush has an eight point lead nationwide according to the latest Gallup.
A win by three or more points by either candidate in the Nationwide popular vote, and the electoral vote will go that person’s way too.
Is it true that Colorado’s electoral votes are split proportionally between the candidates? Its no longer one takes all.
A single color for Colorado may no longer make sense.
I’d like to see California and New York electoral votes broken out. Then maybe the candidates would campaign and pander there.
There is an amendment on the ballot to do just that (and have it be retroactive to include this election).
Its ahead in the polls, but still gets under 50%, lots of undecideds. I think once voters start thinking about the impact and the newspapers get involved (the RMN will be against it, not so sure about the more liberal Denver Post), it will lose handily.