Two must-read essays on Iran. On from new-to-me blogger, The Key Monk, and the other from Michael Ledeen.
A Little Push in Iran
There is every reason for optimism on Iran – probably more reason than in Iraq. The people there by and large want democracy and they’re vocal about it. They don’t support the mullahs. Everyone is rightly worried right now about the possibility of th…
How is Ledeen must-read? (although I read it just in case) Hasn’t he been wrong enough? Is he any more right about Iran than he was about Iraq? The words seem awful familiar…let’s try getting it right this time. Just a thought. If we must send our friends into battle, let’s not do it on this guy’s say-so. (Before you say it, I already read it. He gets no more dap. Period.)
The key word in the previous post is friends.
I think war supporters should own up to the fact that, for the short-term at least, our actions in Iraq have made it harder to deal with Iran, rather than less so. A key reason why the Bush Administration has been so indecisive is because the Iranians could cause far more trouble in Iraq than they are right now, if they had the inclination. And given the current situation in Iraq, that’s the last thing that we need.
The trouble Iran could cause in Iraq isn’t enough to make the Administration shelve the idea of an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities, but it is enough to make it spend much more time on diplomacy, during which the mullahs move closer to obtaining the bomb. And it’s clearly enough to keep the Administration from making a full-blown push for Iranian democracy.
As for Ledeen, the man’s heart is in the right place, but he’s been wrong more often than he’s been right when it comes to judging political currents in Iran. I don’t think he appreciates the fact that the mood in big cities like Tehran and Isfahan don’t represent the entire country, any more than the mood in New York and LA represents all of America. I also don’t think he fully appreciates the magnitude of the difference between hating the government you live under and risking your life to bring it down, particularly when said government runs a brutal police state that can still call upon large numbers of fanatical zealots to do its bidding.
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