Wargaming the Electoral College
August 30th, 2004 - 10:26 am
Yesterday’s vote projection might have been a tad pessimistic — James Joyner finds Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Iowa slipping away from Kerry.
Meanwhile, others disagree.
Thanks for the link!
I am not sure I disagree that those states are slipping away from Kerry. Especially with Wisconsin. I believe it is slipping away from Kerry and will likely go to Bush this time.
But the map on my site is not a projection of where I think things will go. It is a reflection of where polls say things are right now.
And what the polls are telling me is that the big lead that Kerry had in the electoral college not all that long ago is all but gone now, and the recent movement has mostly been in the President’s direction.
Will that continue? Time will tell!
I always wanted to be “others!”
Thanks for the link, Vodkapundit. Mr. Green’s blog is a personal favorite.
I’m from Wisconsin. Kerry is toast.
If Bush wins any swing state he lost in 2000, be prepared because the left is going to say that Kerry lost because of the negative Swift Vet ads, spreading lies and deceit, therefore a Bush win will still be illegitimate.
It’s almost enough to make me wish that cryogenics was a reality. I’d sign up and ask for a 2008 wake up call.
The polls show wisconsin is definitely slipping from Kerry, but pennsylvania only shows at best a tie, and there if anything the polls show Iowa is remaining with Kerry so far.
If Bush picks up Wisconsin it will be in part because Jim Doyle has been such a prime example of what is wrong with the Democrats. In a recent local election for a State Assembly seat held by the Dems for generations, the special interests spent over half a million on advertising and the Republican candidate still won. When that happened I predicted that Bush would carry Wisconsin on Mark Honadel’s coattails.