Islamic Nihilism II
June 24th, 2004 - 9:23 am
Here we go again:
Fighting raged in at least five cities in Iraq today as suspected Sunni Muslim insurgents launched coordinated attacks that killed about 70 people and wounded hundreds.
American and Iraqi officials said the attacks
Dropped 3-500# bombs in Baquba, according to the radio report.
This is part of the Iraqi civil war. The Sunnis have recruited helpers from alqaida and Hezbollah, and are going all out to prevent a democratic Iraq from creating a civil society and governmental infrastructure.
Like I said a year ago, alqaida is stupid to come out in the open like this with so much american firepower available to defeat them. If they had only waited for the americans to leave and the UN to take over, Iraq would be theirs for the plucking.
How long will the pro-democracy Sunnis put up with this BS? When will they go to war against their islamist and totalitarian cousins and put them down like the dogs they are?
Wait and see. It shouldn’t be long now.
My sense is that this is no longer a civil war. In fact, I’ll go out on a limb and say I think we have already won the internal battle. I noticed that in the NYT article, even though the reporter frequenctly used the word “insurgents” to decribe the attackers, I didn’t see any actual quotes that used that word. If I’m right, it’s an inappropriate use of language.
Here’s the theory (only a theory I would stress):
These actions were organized by outsiders, perhaps Hezbollah. A number or Iraqis have been recruited into this force, primarily as cannon fodder, the inverse of what was previously suggested. This is an invading army, in some ways more dangerous than what we have faced so far, but in other important ways not. This is not a serious threat to Iraqi democracy (it remains a treat to general security). It is likely inspire the Iraqis to fight back, and they may just be ready to do so effectively by now. It could even have the effect of uniting many of the Iraqi factions. On a purely tactical level, an army of outsiders will have a logistical disadvantage.
Related post by wretchard (who says it ((well, everything)) better than I ever could):
http://belmontclub.blogspot.com/2004_06_01_belmontclub_archive.html#108808105407724260
Where’s the evidence that this is an “army of outsiders”?
It still looks rather like they are different groups out there with different composition and agendas. The threat of civil war is growing while the chances that Iraq is not going the way of the Afghanistan model of a failed state with an extremely weak central authority are diminishing.