A Good Example
Bill Safire explains why war with Iraq makes war less likely elsewhere:
Kim Jong Il may be crazy but he’s not stupid. With one end of the axis down, his father’s many heroic statues look a little shaky. His South Korean counterpart, Roh Moo Hyun, whose own attitude toward the U.S. has undergone an after-Saddam epiphany, says that Kim was “petrified” by the speedy U.S. victory.
Yesterday, a Washington Post headline read “North Korea Drops Its Demand for One-on-One Talks With U.S.” Although derided as bellicose by Democrats, President Bush’s insistence on Kim’s dealing with a coalition of those concerned may be working out peacefully. Different strokes for different dictators.
Thus may the credible threat of pre-emptive war obviate its carrying-out. Bush officials say that Syria has chemical weapons, has been warehousing Iraqi weapons and
More relevant to the North Korea situation, I think, is the fact that the *Chinese* government, while not particularly nice, is neither crazy nor stupid.
North Korea is heavily dependent on China. China is no longer a Maoist hermit state but a major player in the world and regional economy. When North Korea waves its nuclear capability around and screams “boo,” it hurts South Korean and Japanese companies that do huge manufacturing business in China. If North Korea were to go completely nuts and attack Seoul or Tokyo, it would be not a victory but an unmitigated disaster for the country’s biggest patron. Nor does China really want the US to get into a major conflict in the region.
China has already started putting pressure on North Korea to stop acting so insane, and Russia, its other patron, is starting to do the same.
Matt,
Great point.
Also keep in mind: Until the war began (or its VERY eve), the PRC was constantly claiming that it had no influence, no leverage, and the entire Korean peninsula problem was that of the US. Wanna solve it? Talk to the NKs was their refrain.
Pretty much when they realized we were serious, we were going to war, all of a sudden, the oil supply to NK via the PRC develops “technical difficulties.” And in the middle of the war, so the rumor goes, Kim Jong-il scurries off to China, and comes back a LOT quieter.
And throughout the war, if you watch what the Chinese were saying/doing, it was that the NKs needed to STFU and get real (echoed by the Japanese, who consistently backed us, and even the RoKs, who were a little wobbly).
I’d wager that any stability that develops there in the next six months should be chalked up as a benefit of Gulf War II.
TO: All
RE: How Does It Feel?
To be living in a Tom Clancy novel?
Specifically Executive Orders…
And yes, this one has rocked everybody’s closely held beliefs about war-fighting the United States. This is especially true for the Russians, whose experts were totally discredited. The rapidity with which we dealt with so many enemy forces using antiquated equipment has the Communist Chinese in a quandry.
Now, let us hope that the generals don’t get the big-head and get stupid on us.
What I find particularly interesting is the lack of any terrorist activity during the course of the operation…to date.
What I find hilarious is the report that the recon-in-force was using public address systems on armored vehicles doing a ‘call to massacre’ type of thing, casting aspersions on the manhood of the fedayeen and jihadists, getting them so wound up they came pouring out to ‘play’ and getting slaughtered. [Note: Why am I reminded of Blazing Saddles....]
Regards,
Chuck(le)
[Discipline, not harsh treatment, keeps free men alive on the field of battle.]
“TO: All
RE: How Does It Feel?
To be living in a Tom Clancy novel?”
I had noticed the Clancyesque feel of the last few months a while back–particularly the cartoonish idiocy of the media’s performance and the impotent blustering of the enemy. Not to mention the thinly veiled contempt for the President from certain world leaders just before he puts a foot up their tookuses.