Quickie
December 30th, 2002 - 10:38 am
Just a random thought before I get back to work on the house:
It was the US cut-off of oil (well, and scrap metal) to Imperial Japan that “forced” Tokyo into attacking Pearl Harbor, in the vain effort to get us to negotiate some sort of settlement recognizing their interests in China and elsewhere.
We’ve now cut off much of North Korea’s oil — the free stuff they’ve been getting from us since the 1994 agreement is about all that cash-strapped nation is able to afford.
As Steven Den Beste wrote, their clock is ticking. Pyongyang, like Tokyo in 1941 and Germany in 1914 is “an army with a nation attached to it.” What happens if that army thinks its lifeblood is choked off?
I feel very afraid for those folks in Seoul and Tokyo. Is regime change even possible there? Looks to me like that’s the only way out.
Well, N. Korea’s army isn’t quite up to the Japanese Imperial Army standard. The world has been screaming for multilateralism. We should just pull out and let those *really* concerned figure it out. ;->
Why do so few see that this sort of situation is *exactly* why we have to disarm Iraq and other such?
The whole problem was founded by what passes for the civilized world ignoring what has been going on for the past several decades. Oddly enough, not everyone in the world plays by the wishful thinking rules promulgated by soft-headed idiots in charge of much of Europe and the UN.
Until and unless we are willing to pay the price to force such as Pol Pot, Kim, Saddam, Milosevic,et al to “be civilized” and force a certain amount of democracy, property rights, and a respect for law this will continue until its obvious conclusion — a nuclear or similar attack on Seoul, Tokyo. Tel Aviv, or somewhere. Then the questions will begin about why we didn’t see it coming and why no one stopped it.
Idiots.
TO: Stephen
RE: What WILL They Do?
“What happens if that army thinks its lifeblood is choked off?” — Stephen Green
If they’re “Stupid”, they’ll come out and ‘play’. And this will give us the excuse to go in and clean their clock, once and for all.
They ARE part of the axis of evil described by Bush a year ago. He knew then what we know now. He’s not going to let them continue. He’s just holding off on them as long as he can, while he deals with Iraq.
Personally, I think we can handle two wars; in a fight one hold on two fashion. We could even deal with a third area of operation if we needed to. It would require calling up reserve combat formations, but it could be done. [Note: My last duty assignment was dealing with mobilizations for such scenarios.]
Regards,
Chuck(le)
[Ignorance is when someone doesn't know something. Stupidity is ignorance with pride. I think the North Korean government is best described as the latter.]
Chuckie, I agree, and the Den Beste article Stephen linked to supports your contention that we can handle both wars at once if we have to. There’s no question that we’d win the war in Korea, however, the costs in US servicemen would be horrendous to the point where we still want to find a way short of the Clinton/Carter ’94 appeasement deal to avoid it. Again Den Beste’s analysis is helpful here too.
The Japanese had sanctions imposed on them for behaving very much like the Iraqis in Kuwait, raping and pillaging China. They had no interests in China other than those created by years of conquest.
The Japanese engaged in their December 1941 attacks to acquire the raw materials and free labor they needed. We were not the only victim, nor can the sanctions be cited as anything more that a contributing factor. Japan was going a conquerin’ and didn’t need a real excuse.
Sanctions don’t work. Japan 1941, Cuba today, Iraq today. North Korea today. The way that you handle international thuggery is by force. There is no case to be made of any aggressive national state being brought to heel by international pressure.
Steve,
What makes you think that the NKs can fight?
Consider for a moment who the new conscript class of the NK Army is made of. Draftee 18-21 year olds were 7-11 years old in 1993, at the start of the famines.
Adult survivors of extended childhood malnutrition are smaller, have perminent health problems and average 25 I.Q. points lower in intelligence.
At best, most of the current class of NK draftees have the physical fitness of the average American women and many would be below that. And most would fit in the lowest US Army mental catagory, the Class IV recruit.
That is really thin gruel of manpower to run a modern military.
The primary purpose of the military in NK is to serve as jailers for young men who might be a threat to the regime.
Certainly, economic sanctions have the potential for causing North Korea to believe that its only option is to start a war. Its difficult to contemplate how the NK’s would consider that a profitable course, but the NK’s have the most bizarre “logic” we’ve seen. They make Bin Laden look rational.
On a historical note, there is good evidence that FDR intended to goad the Japanese into starting war with the United States.
Yes and no. I believe that FDR intended to goad Japan into open war. But one needs to ask why. This is answered above by Chuck – the Japanese were engaged in a vicious war of conquest across China and Southeast Asia. I don’t like FDR much, but I think his actions against Japan were right, just as President Bush’s actions are against Iraq.
TO: MarkD
RE: Counting the Cost
“… the costs in US servicemen would be horrendous to the point where we still want to find a way short of the Clinton/Carter ’94 appeasement deal to avoid it.” — MarkD
I guess it depends on what sort of ‘cost’ we’re looking at; short term or long.
I seem to remember Chamberlains comments about the situation with Czechoslovakia some time back. And recognize how close the Clinton/Carter thing in ’94 comes to that.
Admittedly, it’s all a juggling act…and all the objects are pointie and VERY ‘sharp’. In due time, there will be a price paid in blood. The question becomes….
….whose blood and how much?
Do we benefit by diplomacy now and paying the blood price later? Or are our losses greater or less by paying the blood price now?
Truman decided that the blood price needed to be paid up front and by the other guy.
What will Bush decide?
Personally, I prefer diplomacy.
However, I think we can make a good argument that diplomacy has failed. Furthermore, in another 90 days, North Korea will have an operational bomb, unless someone decides to do something “unexpected”.
I think the Israelis did something like that vis-a-vis Iraq a couple of decades ago….
Regards,
Chuck(le)
‘Nukes. It’s time to Release The Hounds.
I’m only half-kidding.
TO: DavidMSC
RE: Nuke ‘m
“‘Nukes. It’s time to Release The Hounds.
I’m only half-kidding.” — DavidMSC
It may well come to that. I give it a .5 probability at this point. And the longer North Korea has to make plutonium the higher the probability gets.
But heaven forbid US is the ones who cross the threshold of mass destruction first.
As I commented to one of the idiotarians at New Scientist a week after 11 Sep 01, “Yes, we’ll probably see nukes in play. First over here and then elsewhere….”
So will the key phrase to indicate that WMD are loose be, “Der hund ist lost!”
Regards,
Chuck(le)
[God made nations. Oppenheimer made nations equal.]
For dictatorships, war is never an only option. It’s a greatly preferred option that enjoys being couched in a faux “desperation” as observed by the naive. The mind of the common criminal operates in an identical manner, converting sympathy into advantage. Japan may not have wished to immediately bother with the continental United States, but really, was its domination of the Pacific just a minor indulgence? Was Nanking just a speck on the record of poor, misunderstood Japan and its bereaved oil imports? Ridiculous. Any obstacle set in front of crooked men will result in violence – and they are the only ones who hold the blame.
The North Korean people deserve liberation; the sooner, the better. Let Kim Jong Il tip his hand and hasten his fall.