The Washington Post’s Election Lab recently determined that Republicans have an 82% chance of capturing the Senate. A couple of new polls suggest that that finding is true.

Louisiana looks like it’s ready to jettison Mary Landrieu.

Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-La.) posts her lowest level of support yet in a new poll of her tough reelection fight.

The survey, from Louisiana-based bipartisan pollster Southern Media & Opinion Research, gives Landrieu just 36 percent support among likely voters to 35 percent support for Rep. Bill Cassidy (R). Retired Air Force colonel Rob Maness (R) takes 7 percent and state Rep. Paul Hollis (R) has 4 percent support. Seventeen percent are undecided.

It’s the lowest numbers she’s posted in any survey of the race yet, and it’s a drop of five points from Southern Media & Opinion Research’s last survey, conducted in November.

North Carolina is seeing a shift against Kay Hagan.

The North Carolina Senate race is now almost dead even.

The latest Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone survey of Likely North Carolina Voters finds that State House Speaker Thom Tillis, the winner of Tuesday’s Republican primary, earns 45% support to incumbent Democratic Senator Kay Hagan’s 44%. Five percent (5%) prefer some other candidate, and seven percent (7%) are undecided.(To see survey question wording, click here.)

Tillis held a 47% to 40% lead over Hagan in late January in Rasmussen Reports’ first look at the Tar Heel State’s U.S. Senate contest.

Usually, when an incumbent is dead even with a challenger months out, the undecided break against the incumbent and the challenger wins.