November 15, 2012 - 6:45 am
Gore is running another 24 hour telethon about global warming, saying “Dirty fossil fuels have created a world of Dirty Weather.” In response, Anthony Watts of “Watts Up with that” has his own 24 hour response. Give it a look.
Okay, let’s put our money where our mouth is, indeed–*if* the atmosphere has actually warmed, then the lapse rate should have changed. This means predictive models day-to-day meteorologists use should have had values changed. Have they been?
The same question goes in regards to the Standard Atmosphere model.
I actually don’t know the answer to whether or not these two things have changed, but my guess is “no”. (I do know any Standard Atmosphere change has not percolated down). If neither have been changed, then the “settled” science has not been “settled” so conclusive as to make others of a scientific bent actually risk their reputations by using it.
Sorta. The greenhouse effect can still be operating above the tropopause, but not in the troposphere, due to convective bypassing of heat. This means there will be some heating in there somewhere, but nowhere near what a you’d get from a greenhouse in the troposphere.
And remember, 80% of all atmospheric mass (including CO2) is in the troposphere.
For the same reason, water greenhouse effect is probably a lot less than the static atmosphere models say it will be, and along with that, the Clausius-Clapeyron feedback is probably a lot less than their naive models say, since pretty much 100% of water vapor is in the troposphere, where all the weather goes on.
Earth isn’t Venus.
I missed a step. The lapse rate that we see is what you get when convention dominates. It’s easily calculated from the pressure profile and thermodynamics. Convection will simply move heat right through the greenhouse gasses in the troposphere. So your observation that lapse rate hasn’t changed is evidence that greenhouse heating isn’t the rate determining step in the troposphere.
And then there’s 28Gate — http://www.spectator.co.uk/columnists/james-delingpole/8758121/heres-a-bbc-scandal-that-should-really-make-you-disgusted/