November 5, 2012 - 7:29 am
Slate just published their own editors votes. Interesting point: Obama’s support in that group dropped from 96 percent to 83 percent — in other words, 13 percent “defected”, which matches quite well with the Washington Post polling I reported in “Keep Calm and Finish Him“.
Once again, Obama had 53 percent of the vote in 2008. 87 percent (100 percent minus 13 percent defections) of 53 percent is 46 percent.
But the proper model is not that 46% now vote O, and 54% now vote R. All those O defectors aren’t going to change into the other column. The proper model is that 46% vote O, 7% drop out, and 47% vote R—which represents, at best, narrowly squeaking by. You need to renormalize to the size of the current voter pool, which gives 49.5% O and 50.5% R. To get anything better than “too close for comfort” it’s necessary not only to have all the voters on the other side from 2008 come back, but to mobilize a lot more people to vote R—both O defectors and people who didn’t vote either way last time.
If they vote O they are not defectors.
“To get anything better than “too close for comfort” it’s necessary not only to have all the voters on the other side from 2008 come back, but to mobilize a lot more people to vote R—both O defectors and people who didn’t vote either way last time.”
I can only wish for a crystal ball, but still it seems to me both may (probably not all) people who switched in 2008 will come back and many people who did not vote in 2008 will vote now. Surely 2008 was an apogee for Obama. He has to be at his bottom level of support now. If can win at his bottom level of support, then the GOP is doomed for all time.
No, not all those Obama voters are going to show up to vote for Romney, and there are a lot of new voters too. Based on past elections their should be 5-10% more voters than in 2008. But you should also take into account that there were substantial numbers of republican voters that stayed home in 2008, I think those voters will be coming back to the polls this year.
Actually, both times I’ve read columns like this they’re describing actual defectors, people who voted for Obama in ’08 and now intend to vote for Romney. Disheartened Democrats who stay home is a whole different metric.
William, I believe it’s a wash if you consider voter intensity of likely voters. As Instapundit has pointed out, there’s a large number of R’s crawling over broken glass to make sure Romney wins. I saw it Mont. Co PA’s Victory Center yesterday and in Morrisville last night’s rally for Romney.
I expect (and hope) that you’re right about relative voter intensity affecting turnout. But the increase in early voting programs in many states might make that less of a factor than in the past.
William, check the Washington Post poll. It reflected 13% of former Obama voters that WILL vote for Romney. That’s what they told the pollster. There are an additional percentage of Obama voters that are undecided (and you’re correct, they just may not vote). So, to the extent any poll is believable, then Charlie is correct to move them directly into Romney’s number (and by the way, that assumes the unnaturally low R turnout from 2008, which we all know will be higher than 32% this time).
Do this mental excercise:
How many people you know that voted for Obama are now either not voting for him, unenthusiastic, or voting for Romney?
How many people do you know that voted for McCain are now either not voting for Romney, unenthusiastic, or voting for Obama?
It is not just a matter of defections, though, William. Last election had a very low Republican turnout. So it is not just a matter of 13% attrition rate of Democrats from Obama, but a higher rate of Republican turnout, plus the big swing in Independents as well.
cnn gave a rather gaudy number of independents to romney…while their poll has it tied, if romeny wins independents by 20 pts, he breaks 52%, easy. 54% is nearly possible.
the two breakdowns that really are a curiousity: race and income.
obama lost the white vote, 55-43, 74% of the electorate in 2008.
kerry lost the white vote, 58-41, 77% of the electorate in 2004.
romney breaks 60% in white vote, and he wins by three or more. even if the % of the electorate of white voters shrinks, it would certianly faovr romney. dispirited dems would represent a sizable chunk of white voter’s lack of turnout.
the income brackets, are even a better indicator. 41% of 08 electorate made more than 75k. 18% made less than 30k. if those cnn 2008 demos are true, it means that romeny could erase a 30 pt lead in the under 30k demo, 65-35, with a 58-42 split on those over 75k.
in 04 bush won the over 50k demo 56-43(55% of the electorate). in 08 obama tied at 49-49(62% of the electorate).
unskewed polls has it about right,
70 million romney, 60 million obama. a 10 million vote margin makes the close state polling irrelevant.
imho, though, 130 million voters is too low. 2008 featured a rather depressed gop turnout, and the the total turnout will be far closer to 135 million this time.
more people will vote for romney, than voted for obama in 2008, which decimates the 70 million barrier. only one candidate is going to get past 70 million, and it ain’t gonne be obama.
The simple fact that so many people are going to vote for Obama, no matter how bad he has been, gives me no hope for this country’s future, no matter who wins. Rommy will just be blip, maybe a slight uptick, on a downward spiral. Look at California. That’s where we are going.
The America that has been a beacon of freedom and prosperity is over. There will be a place on the map labelled “America”, but that place will not be America. America is over.
agreed.
anybody who believe we can tax our way back to prosperity is insane. obama’s 250k bracket, which is the bracket from 93, ingoring that clinton adjusted his for inflation every year up to 300k in his last year…
how do you run country spending 24% of gdp, with a tax plan that was designed to create revenue of less than 20% of gdp, during a ‘successful’ economic period?
carter’s 40% was the best repudiation. that obama is over 45% gives into the belief that we should have run dennis haysbert.
even if romney wins, the writing is on the wall. I live in a country of morons.
I think most countries are populated by morons. Trouble is, in this country, we encourage them to vote.
my disappointment is that there are economically literate people, at best 20% of the us population, who support obama. this 20% isn’t split evenly. it runs closer to 80% romney, 20% obama, but the media just gives equivalent voices to the economic minority view, and few people look at what the ‘consenus of experts’ view really is…
every lib can point to paul krugman and bask in his nobel prize.
ask a lib to name a nobel prize winner who is conservative and opposed the stimulus…
there are at least 5 american noble prize winners who fit that bill.(in lib’s defense, they do have stiglitz in addition to krugman)
Well, it is statistically true for large populations that half the people will have an IQ that is below average…
joel, the Founders never intended us to have a warm-body democracy, and the Constitution will not work when we do.
Sorry you feel that way, joel, but I’m not buying that defeatist [i]malarkey[/i](© 2012 Joseph R. Biden, Jr.), and I’ll tell you why:
In the summer of 1979, as a high-school student, I visited what was then West Germany. (Had my first beer ever there, the night our group arrived, but that’s another story.) The next day, we were taken to see the Berlin Wall and Checkpoint Charlie, and to take a government bus tour through East Berlin. (Wow, was that an eye-opener — but again, that’s another story.) We stood on an observation deck on the Western side, looking with our binoculars at the minefields and at the horrific ugly wall and at the East German border guard looking back at us through his binoculars.
As I recall, there was a lamp that burned there, and the tour guide told us that it would burn until Germany was reunified. I remember looking at that wall and thinking, “That’s never gonna happen. Poor West and East Germans. That lamp will burn forever.”
And just a bit over 10 years later, that wall was down. Torn to bits, smashed to rubble, by ordinary people roused to a righteous fury for the sake of freedom. (I got a chance to see a piece of it that was left as a tribute to Ronald Reagan, outside the funeral home where his body lay in state before being transported to Washington DC for his funeral service.)
Shortly thereafter, the Soviet Union fell.
Russians put up with Communism for almost seventy years, and then couldn’t take it any more.
Germans put up with Communism for forty years, and then couldn’t take it any more.
Do you think we unruly, ornery Americans would put up with it for even half that long? Nah.
Yeah. I lived in West Germany through 81 and 82. My (now ex-)wife and I happened to be in London on Reunification Day, and she couldn’t understand why I was tearing up and wondering if we shouldn’t make a quick trip….
Oh for godssake, just go kill yourself already if that’s how you feel. Or better yet, go read some Churchill speeches – his predicament was much worse than ours.
Obama will get 47%
They’ve got 35 “staffers and contributers” this time. In 2008, they had 57.
How are the 22 people no longer working at Slate going to vote?
Well, they’ll certainly have more spare time.
LOL good question Anthony.
In reading the Reason.com article, what strikes me is the productivity improvement at Slate. In 2008 they counted 57 staffers, in 2012 they count 35. That’s a 63%
productivity gain (assuming constant output, of course. Your mileage may vary.)
perfect storm?
***IF***
cnn’s independent number is true, at 59-35.
gallup and rasmussen get their +1-3 gop advantage.
salt in obama barely winning women…
***THEN***
55-45, at minimum.
86% of Salon “editors” plan to vote for Obama again? No wonder I almost never read their crap.