Republican National Committee political director Rick Wiley released a memo today outlining the case for a Romney victory on Tuesday. In the memo, Wiley writes “In the four party-registration states (Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada), we are poised to win the Election Day vote by even greater margins than we did in 2008. That’s right, Jeremy Bird, we beat you on Election Day even in 2008.
“This time around we have over 150,000 volunteers across the battleground who have already contacted over 53 million voters and expect to contact millions more from now until the polls close tomorrow night.
“The Democrats have expended much energy to make the point that more Democrats than Republicans have voted early in some states. It makes sense that the same desperate campaign that made “revenge” their closing argument would make this ridiculous stat the central defense of their ground game. Republicans are an Election Day party. By and large, we vote on Election Day, and we vote in much larger numbers than Democrats.”
Wiley also writes that while Republicans have been bringing sporadic voters out for early voting, Democrats have been turning out their core during early voting. That may the Democrats’ early numbers, but it also means they will have fewer strong voters available on Election Day. This, writes Wiley, amounts to cannibalizing their best voters, leaving the party weaker on the final voting day, which Republicans traditionally win.
“In Colorado there are over 26,000 (34%) more high-propensity Republican voters available than high-propensity Democrat voters,” Wiley writes. “In Florida there are 166,000 (21%) more; 85,000 (47%) more in Iowa; and 16,000 (22%) more in Nevada.
“And in Ohio, Republicans have 368,000 more high-propensity voters available than Democrats–72 percent more, in fact–and enough to off-set the Obama campaign’s most optimistic (and unrealistic) early vote math.”
Wiley notes that while the Obama campaign claims to have more offices and personnel, voters in the targeted states have been contacted equally by both sides thus far. That plus the early vote numbers, writes Wiley, amounts to (ground) game over for the Democrats.