The past week has been one of the more chaotic closing weeks in presidential campaign history. There was no October Surprise, but the Benghazi scandal and Hurricane Sandy threw massive wild cards into the race. To many conservatives’ outrage but to no one’s surprise, the media played down Benghazi while playing up the hurricane disaster relief even though FEMA has not done a good job. Obama got to parade around in the bomber jacket and do what he does best: Pose as the leader that he is not and never will be. But an image-based society tends to respond to that false version of leadership. That’s why he was elected four years ago.
But the fundamentals still favor Mitt Romney. A majority of Americans believe that we are on the wrong track. A large number are more apprehensive about the future than excited about it. The economy is not strong and Obama has no plan to make it strong. Obama has racked up more debt than all previous presidents, and more than his predecessor racked up in eight years. Obama’s signature legislative “achievement” is ObamaCare, an unpopular and tyrannical body of law that is dragging the economy. Obama ran a campaign unworthy of the office he seeks to hold for another four years. He is a small man when America needs someone great. Mitt Romney is an honorable man and his skills in finance are exactly what the nation needs right now. Whether he turns out to be great very much remains to be seen.
Here is how I estimate the states will align tomorrow.
The bottom line is that 2008 is not 2012, and Democrats will not ride a tsunami anything like the one they rode four years ago. Republicans are energized and a majority of independents are with them. Romney has run a good and confident campaign, and he has presented himself as a more plausible president than Obama. Their respective favorability ratings are about even, and Romney seemed to pick up a little momentum once Hurricane Sandy’s effects began to wane. So where the polls are close, Romney will tend to win. The big story is likely to be Pennsylvania, which will go Republican for the first time since 1988. I have allocated New Hampshire to Romney, but am most on the fence about it. Obama could win it. Obama’s vaunted registration and GOTV efforts could make a big difference, but the Republicans’ GOTV is said to be matching that effort toe to toe.
My confidence is not as high as I would like it to be. Not only is this race hard to read, the American people may not be the people that many of us believe them to be. Over at Ace of Spades, Monty writes: “I know what I want: a nation that is sober, thoughtful, thrifty, proud, culturally strong, and confident both within and without.” That’s the nation most conservatives and libertarians want and even liberals say they want, but is it the nation we have? It’s difficult to build a convincing argument that that is who we are. Tuesday will tell us, and I must say that my own optimism on that is not high. The Obama phone users outnumber the coal miners, and if they vote, they will vote with the Obama agenda that will destroy the coal industry, unaware of the fact that that same agenda will wreck the economy that funds their Obama phones. The middle class welfare users whom Obama has wooed with happy ads branding the dole as SNAP are just getting theirs. When you have a man from the ACORN community organizing, voter fraud way of doing things in the White House, you have the makings of a gamble with the rule of law and you may have a decadent nation that votes more out of image and guilt than for who is best qualified to lead.
Obviously my map suggests that I am banking on the American people taking their responsibility and the nation’s future seriously tomorrow. Tuesday night we will know if that’s the way to bet going forward.
Yeah, Bryan, this is pretty much how I see it. There could have been a few more States picked up by Romney, if he had concentrated on them sooner, like MI and MN, but it would have required considerable prescience.
I used to believe in the level headedness of the American people. When Obama was elected i knew i was wrong. But this is what scares me the most: With all that has gone wrong and gone bad for this country by the hand of this administration, that the race is even close is tragic and chilling.
I can think of a dozen things Romney should have done differently. For a spate of MONTHS after he wrapped up the nomination he seemed to want to just run out the clock on Obama. Too little, too late.
Obama will win Ohio, Iowa, Pa., Wi, and NH. May be even Co as well.
God help our nation.
I believe that the number of level-headed legal voters is pretty high, but I also believe that Democrats have been fine-tuning their fraud machine.
I live in Colorado – it just doesn’t feel like 2008 here. I see so many more Romney signs that Obama signs in the in-town neighborhoods (not just the suburbs).
But I join you in my despair about the American people. They’ve become idiots. Helpless idots.
Sure, we’re idiots. But we are deciding not to become Europe. That makes us brilliant idiots. Hard times are coming regardless, the school of hard knocks will be in session.
You’re right. According to Rasmussen more Americans strongly approve of Obama’s performance than anytime than in the last several years, that’s after ruining the economy, losing wars and Benghazi.
Not to mention Fast & Furious,”You didn’t built that”, the “Private Sector is doing fine”, acting like a complete high school punk the past two years, …
Well, not surprising at all; it’s typical behavior for about half the country.
That’s quite a list. In fact, looked at from every angle and at every level, Obama has shown himself to be among — if not the — worst president of the past 100 years (and that statement is soberly considered).
Gaffes? Too many to count, some of them epic in scale (“You didn’t build that” will go down in history.) Personality? Whining, but puffed-up strutting — sometimes at the same moment! Scandals? Financal, sexual, cronyism — the administration is littered with them. Military incompetence? Obviously. Contempt for the Constitution? Breathtaking examples. Incompetence? Financial waste?
All the boxes have been checked off — and some new ones created! The racism exhibited would, if flipped, make a Klansman blush with shame.
So, the queston remains: Why are there *any* blue states at all? Well, okay, to use William F. Buckley, Jr.’s phrase, there are “fever swamps” of liberal/left hold-outs spotted here an there (where they should be lovingly maintained, like wilderness parks), but in civilized areas, voters should be murmering their polite, but insincere, thanks and asking Mr. Obama when he will be able to make the house available for the new occupants.
I, too. am skeptical about the common sense and clear thinking of
American voters and have begun to beiieve the uninformed kids interviewed by Leno are more typical. I am very concerned that some interest groups propel their issues to national importance while the important ones are untouched. Obama has completely changed a foreign policy that has existed since rhis nation was formed and not enough people are upset. Lies and evasions are quickly accepted by too many
Amerucans….including our congress people.
“My confidence is not as high as I would like it to be. Not only is this race hard to read, the American people may not be the people that many of us believe them to be. Over at Ace of Spades, Monty writes: “I know what I want: a nation that is sober, thoughtful, thrifty, proud, culturally strong, and confident both within and without.” That’s the nation most conservatives and libertarians want and even liberals say they want, but is it the nation we have? It’s difficult to build a convincing argument that that is who we are. Tuesday will tell us, and I must say that my own optimism on that is not high”
I don’t know either, though the rot is both deeper and more superficial than I think. But… if it isn’t? What then?
I think there is a path forward. It does not involve being loyal to the GOP above all else. Doesn’t really involve politics at all. But it does require the idiot politicos to hold the line for a while.
If they can be bothered.
It also involves people saying what has been said for the last few hours–that there is probably a decay issue, we may lose the nation if current trends continue, and Mitt Romney will have a disaster if he tries the statist trick, thinking conservatives will rally regardless.
It is simply time to talk honestly, openly, and bluntly about the course this nation is on, even if in a way thought harmful to GOP politics–or that is harmful. Because Josh is right in what he says below–the people have usually made at least a plausibly reasonable choice when presented with the arguments. But to do so requires discussion, not sacrificing everything to fears of the media attacking “extremism” from on high.
“FEMA has not done a good job.”
Not to hijack this thread but not a single alphabet-soup government agency has done a particularly good job in the NYC area since the storm. However, private sector not-for-profit organizations are on the scene making a difference. Your welcome, Bloomy!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?&v=l4xTKScn5aQ
Fast-forward to 6:25 for the key bit. See the rest of the vid for vivid portrayals of flooding damage in the Sea Gate neighborhood of Brooklyn.
So, in the words of that Army three-star during Katrina, “they’re stuck on stupid”?
I do not think that the American public has clearly made the wrong choice in my lifetime, basically since JFK in 1960. Even Obama over McCain can be justified – McCain/Palin was no picnic.
But a reelection of Obama I believe would break that image.
I am therefore hopeful beyond reason, that Romney will win tomorrow.
… or at least after due recounts, court cases, voting of the electoral college, supreme court, and house of representatives.
I think this is a very solid prediction, but for best within reason case.
I pray we won’t see a surprise of Obamacare proportions.
Peter Schiff Talks to WeAreChange Minnesota POSTED BY LUKE RUDKOWSKI ON OCT 5, 2012
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QLNk4RI_laQ&feature=player_embedded#!
After four very long years, I get to go to the polling place tomorrow and proudly cast my vote to fire our first Communist President! I will do this and you will do this and with the help of God we will be shed of this great threat to the dignity of all freedom loving Americans. Mitt Romney will prove to be a great President because he is both a capable and an honest man. ABO2012
I am relieved to see an optimistic projection for Romney that does not deny that Obama may well win. I think the polls are suspect but until the real one we just don’t know. Does the electorate of 2010 want to now confirm Obama in office? The recent outbreak of enthusiasm for Romney shown at rallies reminds me of the spirit of 2010. I think that it came out and showed itself after the first debate and I see no reason for Sandy to suddenly reverse it as the polls seem to indicate. I think there is still a tremendous projection on Obama by his supporters that seems unshakable no matter how much his reality diverges from the Hope and Change image. Even if you agree with his policies, he has shown his inexperience is a serious problem. Looking good after Sandy in a bomber jacket plays into the delusional view of Obama as savior but I can’t see it impressing the genuinely disillusioned or inspiring large numbers of the disappointed to decide to come out and vote.
If any American apart from the Racist Blacks and the irredeemable left wing moonbats vote for the Benghazi bottler, Affirmative Action, Teleprompter Kid, Unqualified, Incompetent, Inefficient, Financially inept, USURPER then they can truly be described as MORONS.
Or as dependents/parasites. As the old saying goes, any system that takes from Peyton and gives to Eli will have Eli’s perpetual support, regardless of any other issue(s). (OK, so I changed the names!) Thanks to Obozo welfare dependency is at an all-time high. It’s Cloward-Piven to the max. Given that fact, the depth & ferocity of Obozo’s supporters is easy to understand.
This thing will be over by 11 PM eastern time possibly earlier. Romney landslide that will surpass Reagan’s. Be sure to DVR MSBNC tomorrow so you can enjoy the entire thing later.
“Be sure to DVR MSBNC tomorrow”
Heh, heh. That will be sweet. I do feel the momentum is for Romney but I still feel nervous when I look at the electoral map. Tomorrow, if and when PA goes red, I’m going to get down on my knees and thank God.
As we all should — that is, get down on our knees and thank God — if Romney wins. We have truly been brought to the brink with this president. Our country and our future, and the future if our children, iss teetering at the edge of the abyss.
Agree Romney landslide but not quite the magnitude of Reagan, can’t see him winning California, Washington, New Mexico. I can’t remember if Reagan won Illinois but I’d have to give that to O. Even that will be closer than expected. Its over, they know its over. R’s are sending out internals on only a couple of states because they want to lower expectations game so folks will turn out but this race isn’t even close. O’s been appealing to only his base for weeks now, hoping they’ll cause trouble, he couldn’t have won 4 years ago without independents and some repubs, he’s lost all that support and about 13 percent of his own D support(Catholics among them). Listen for the subtle laying of the excuses groundwork today.
– voters cannot admit they made a mistake.
They don’t have to admit they were wrong. All they have to do is stay home.
Election results don’t swing wildly because voters are fickle. They swing because the groups that turn out change from cycle to cycle. The last minute disclosure of the old DUI suppressed the religious conservative vote for Dubya in 2000 but the same people showed up for him in 2004- pretty much under the radar screen of many pollsters. In 2008 Obama benefited from a huge turnout of young people that isn’t likely to repeat while many conservative voters from 2004 stayed home. They didn’t like Obama and didn’t trust McCain not to sell them out.
This is like going up one’s first roller coaster! click. click. click. you get to the top. all the while you’ve hung on tight to the security bar with your eyes semi closed… all of a sudden there’s a slowdown and a bump you open your eyes and here we go!
OoooooHHHH Shiiiiiiiiiit!
Wow is does everyone on this site have their heads up their asses or what?!
Try to maintain a little dignity Mister Biden.
Just wanted to put my ‘bold’ prediction in.
Romeny: 295 – 298
Obama: 240 – 243
(there, no method. Just prediction)
Robert Gibbs said something interesting this morning on F&Friends. About why O wasn’t out campaigning today, something to the effect that …he didn’t want to pull campaign workers away from their important work today to …create…a crowd.
It was passed over, but I immediately thought…create a crowd? The side that stands for freedom doesn’t need to “create” a crowd. We Will win big today.
We are all gonna continue to burn in “Hell”.We keep practising hate and injustice while The System continues to kill us all with lies,hunger,disease,mental manipulation,etc.How can we continue to have such hateful hearts but in the same sentence say “I Love The Lord”.We think we are really doing something with all the igoranant things we do or say about one another.When Jesus returns,he’s not coming to play,a sword will be dripping with blood of the unrightousness.Its time People,or “Live By The Sword Die By That Sword”.Keep following these false teachingss(religion,politics,etc).Our kids will be like zombies,and i bet race won’t be a factor then.”The Shadow Government” is in action,1st- population control by means of death or manipulation!!PEACE=ProperEducationAlwaysCorrectError
You people are hilariously optimistic, I believe your biggest mistake was assuming that the majority of Americans have been just as tricked into unjustly hating Obama as you have. Willard Romney is a proven liar and you clowns are so far in denial that you’re going to try pinching yourselves when Obama wins the elections because it’s going to be such an unreal nightmare for you.
My map had a few more likely Romney, Missouri & Arizona, and leaning Romney, Michigan & one district in Maine. With the polls over sampling democrats by 10% to 30% and the independents going for Romney 10 to 24 points I would put money on a repeat of the 2010 election. All the same factors are there: hostile press, biased polls, very high Republican voter enthusiasm, high unemployment, high gas prices, falling wages and many other indicators that are still present from two years ago. ~500 elective offices will go over to the Republicans from the top of the ticket on down to school board.
I can support this map, because it’s very similar to my map. But I cannot believe that Ed Rendell’s Magical Philly County Vote Fraud Machine will permit Mitt to win Pennsylvania. Oh, and I gave Mitt ME-2. I’m surprised you didn’t award him that one electoral vote.
Please everyone take this time to stop praising and spend more time doing some inner republican evaluation. This party is tearing itself apart at the seams and will only point more fingers at each other in the coming days. You ALL may think its you versus everyone else, but it’s ACTUALLY you fighting yourselfs. The numbers have spoken for themselves and you all will just have to deal with it. Like i said earlier, pull your head out of your asses!