Gallup Tightens Up

Gallup has released its final top line presidential numbers, and they show a storm surge helped President Obama among likely voters. But Gallup still shows a narrow Romney lead, 49-48. Romney had led in the Gallup rolling poll by as many as seven points before Hurricane Sandy struck the east coast.

The fact that the incumbent stayed below 50% in the final poll, after the bump he received from Hurricane Sandy relief, is very significant. The poll concluded gathering data on Nov. 4, and complaints about the Obama administration’s handling of the hurricane have grown louder. Incumbents who cannot break 50% in polls tend to lose.