Five days from Election Day both campaigns will tell us that they’re right where they want to be. Both can’t be right about that. Five days from Election Day, the national polls tend to show Mitt Romney leading Barack Obama, but the state polls tend to say that Obama leads in the swing states that matter most. Both can’t be right about that, for the simple reason that swing states tend to be swing states because they tend to mirror the national political divide.
The question is, where are we, really?
No one, especially after the hurricane on the east coast has scrambled everything, knows for sure. Much of the evidence is like that beach sign someone made on the Jersey shore spelling “ROMNEY” – ambiguous. Was the sign a show of support, or was it a bitter Democrat trying to attach some sort of blame to him?
The polls aren’t much help. As I noted before, the state and national polls are diverging. The national pollsters tend to have been in business longer and use larger sample sizes, which should favor them. But the state pollsters may be obtaining more granular data that can be more accurate.
Or not. Today’s Marist poll of Iowa, for instance, is definitely overcounting early voters by a wide margin. Marist says 45% of Iowans have already voted, but the state’s official stats say that just 32.2 percent have already voted. If that kind of poll is your “gold standard,” you may be overvaluing fool’s gold. There’s a hint here not that Marist is engaged in shenanigans, but that people tell pollsters things that are not true. Some will tell pollsters that they have already voted because it makes them sound responsible, just as some will claim to support same-sex marriage when they don’t because that’s the politically correct answer. If supporting Obama is the politically correct answer, and in many swing states it probably is to a few percent of voters, then Obama’s support is being overcounted.
More than any poll, it’s wise to watch the campaigns. Watch their body language and their travel and spending patterns. Looking at both campaigns from that point of view, it’s very clear that five days from the election the Obama campaign is in retreat. This morning, Obama spokeswoman Stephanie Cutter accidentally admitted that they’re no longer competing in North Carolina, which Obama won four years ago.
That admission parallels David Axelrod’s mustache bet: He only wagered a shave if Obama lost all of three states that just a couple of weeks ago were supposedly in the bag for Obama. That’s hardly a courageous bet. At the same time, Romney is going up with ads in Minnesota, Michigan, and Pennsylvania in addition to the swing states that he is already advertising in and campaigning in either directly or via surrogates. Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, two states Obama must have in order to win, are definitely in play.
Today, Romney is working Obama’s silly “Secretary of Business” idea into his closing argument. This is very shrewd in the lead-up to the final unemployment numbers before the election, and a sign that Romney is staying on offense and dictating the terms of the battle. Obama’s proposal should strike any American who has ever dealt with any large bureaucracy as unserious. It amounts to moving boxes and names around on an org chart rather than thinking outside his state-centered ideology. And if it was such a good idea, why didn’t Obama propose it four years ago when he had control of Congress and could have gotten it done? He elevated the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations to cabinet level, but did not think to “streamline” the government’s business bureaucracy at the same time? Why not?
The effect of Sandy will be to disrupt polling and to depress the popular vote. The storm will have no effect on the Electoral College.
My substantial gut says Obama 242, Romney 296 unless Obama completely disintegrates in the next few days.
Close to what I think. On election day itself I think you will have an AM hour surge of black folk – encouraged by their Rev. Wrights this Sunday, and thats going to do two things on top of make OH, VA, NC, and FL achingly close: 1. get some true undecideds annoyed as they open and close the curtain and vote Romney out of spite (or as some of my family would say “a chingar”) and scare the Romney faithful to get grandma or lazy uncle to the poll in the sunset hours.
Romney to win, but Obama beats the conservative “spread”.
That’s a good guess, and I have a suspicion that the MSM will try to call the swings states for Obama early based on these morning voters. They’ll do that to try to discourage Republican voters with day jobs from going to the polls in the evening, and also to create a meme that the election was “stolen” from Obama somehow. That’s another thing that makes it important for Romney supporters to get out and vote — if the margin is big enough, none of these stories will carry any weight.
Projections are not called before polls close. The Ministry of Socialist Mindwashing hasn’t quite sunk that low…..yet.
Remember the exit poll gambit of 2004?
The Reverend Wrights will be partially offset by the black pulpits upset about Obama position on gay marriage who are telling their congregations that’s ok not to vote for Obama or any Democrat this time around. Not to mention the deep disappointment that many blacks have with Obama’s failure to improve their situation. I doubt that many will vote Republican, but some will not show up.
In the United States, the population of Blacks is not more than 11%. You’ve been watching too many commercials if you think it’s more.
Of the 11%, less than half of that are adults; children under 18 years of age make up more than half of the Black population. Then, of the approximately 5.5% of adult Blacks, not all will vote; perhaps only 3.5 to 4.0%, maybe not even that.
So, what influence can 3.5% of the voting Black population have that is not surpassed by the majority of Whites. This time around, with unemployment of Blacks at 25% or more; and that of Black young adults at almost 50%, Obama can be justified in his disappointment — those Blacks will not be voting for Obama, they will just as well stay home.
Of the smaller percentage of Blacks that might vote, many honorable, religiously faithful persons will not be voting for Obama. Black community church leaders have said they will not vote for Obama because of his despicable and amoral encouragement of gays and same-sex-marriage. Obama has also lost the support of many Christians who voted for him previously. The Catholic church alone is mounting a serious effort to encourage their members not to vote for Obama on their belief that Obama has lost his way morally.
Add to Obama’s loss of following those voters who have since 2008 learned what a liar, despot and literally criminal Obama really is. Hiding his personal records, including his academic information — as his first edict when he became president — has turned millions of his followers into persons who will simply not be won over by Obama again. Ever.
Hispanics have just about as many complaints against Obama for his dismal performance with the economy. They are not only straddled with loss of jobs, but foreclosures, high fuel prices, higher food prices and the loss of economic certainty. These folks will probably just stay home rather that vote for 4 more years of dismal loss of hope.
It matters very little how much Obama seeks to distract the electorate. When people go to the polls this November, they will be voting their wallets. By then, just the renewed hope of change with Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan, given Romney’s experience and prowess with fiscal matters, a majority of voters will simply want to give Romney and Ryan a chance to make things better.
Live by the polls, die by the polls. Polls can and have been manipulated. Obama in this election is cast as Jimmy Carter. No amount of distraction will relieve the American people of the literal hurt that Obama’s failures and socialist flings have cost. Obama will fall by the weight of his undeniable failures, lies and gigantic waste of public monies.
The point about Sandy not much affecting the outcome in the electoral college is a big selling point for some sort of electoral college voting system for governments large enough to include many different types of weather on election day. Imagine how the Democrats would be screaming about Sandy if the presidency depended directly on the popular vote, now that travel is so much more difficult where they would expect to get a large chunk of their total.
Perhaps places like California which are thinking of awarding their electoral votes based on the outcome of the national popular vote should think again. If future election day weather should feature a massive snowstorm over the great lakes together with a big hurricane over the east coast, in a reasonably close election Californians might find themselves represented by Republican electors even though they themselves voted over 60% for the Democrat. Men make plans while God laughs.
Obama would lose a fair election, but he will will because of vote fraud.
What troubles me almost as much as Dem vote fraud is that Republicans seem unwilling to stop it (since they don’t want to be called names).
Republicans tacitly accept that Romney has to win 52%, not 50%, in each swing state to win it.
It is hard to choose between an evil party (D) and a stupid party (R).
They’re not the “Stupid Party.” They’re the “Treacherous Party.”
If they wanted to do something, they would — regardless of criticism. They don’t WANT to.
I think that “surge” of black people may be smaller than you think. President Obama has done NOTHING for the black population, other than make things worse. His coming out in favor of gay marriage will be a big problem for him among blacks, who are far more conservative than he thinks. This election is going to have people digging through history books and learning statistics, trying to explain it. “Complex” only begins to describe what’s going on.
I personally think it is wrong to have an electoral college anyway. We should go back to basics!!! Tally all the votes and the one who has the most wins..period!! If we really want our vote to count this is the only way to make it happen again!!!
Secretary of Business? I thought we had one…The Secretary of Commerce.
Here is my election prediction:
Popular vote -Romney 51-53 percent to Obama’s 47-49 percent.
Electoral Vote: If Obama gets 48% or better he wins the Electoral College.
You thought wrong. The Secretary of Commerce resigned last June. With his busy schedule, Obama hasn’t gotten around to nominating a replacement yet.
I was referring to the position not whether it was filled or not. I assume you were trying to be cute.
Given the make up of the states and their voting distributions, it’s almost impossible for Obama to win the electoral college with 48% of the vote if Romney gets 50%, and it is certainly impossible for if Romney gets 51%+. There aren’t enough “spare” Romney votes in red states for Obama to carry the key swings and give Romney that margin. Similarly it is highly unlikely that Romney will run close enough in the blue states to gain that margin, while running behind in the swings.
Obama has a lock on the two biggest states, Illinois and most of New England. He can carry most of the swing states on very thin margins while Romney gets 60% of the vote in the rest of the country. If you do a weighted average it works out to a 52-48 split. 100k votes in Ohio stood between Kerry and the White House. That would have given him a victory with 48.5% of the national popular vote.
Not in this economy. Maybe in your alter-planet, where money doesn’t’ matter.
Good summary, Bryan.
Of course it’s painful that this still looks close, and that the MSM is still convinced that Obama wins every critical state (mainly they don’t bring it up unless they can make some kind of farfetched argument in Obama’s favor), but there seem some real reasons to think Romney is in good shape.
The MSM mea culpa’s afterwards, can you even imagine how that’s going to go?
Haha, MEA culpa? More like tua culpa. “You weren’t smart enough to vote for this guy. You’re a racist. You let the nation down.” Et cetera.
Very true. Remember Dan Rather’s comments about the “Republican temper tantrum” a few election cycles back. The MSM will never admit bias or defeat. They’re like cockroaches — they’ll never leave on their own; they must be swept away.
I believe that was the late Peter Jennings who made that quip. Not Dan Rather. But your premise still stands.
I was indeed Jennings who was at the time still a Canadian citizen.
Peter Jennings was an idiot and a narcissist who thought that news should fit his agenda and not the other way around. It’s because of the likes of him that MSM stands where it is today, an intrusive, out-of-control force that determines the outcome of the news, rather than describe the news. And yes, he was Canadian, but it never stopped him from lecturing Americans on what should Americans do or how should Americans think.
It boils down to who you believe. The liberal polls predict turnouts like 2008, which probably would yield a narrow victory for the Fraud.
The reputable polls predict a turnout between 2004 and 2008, which is probably more accurate but also probably overstated for obama. If those polls are correct, Romney would win narrowly.
So Bryan is correct that other tea leaves must be examined.
In an honest election, considering the tea leaves, Dick Morris would be correct in predicting a large Romeny victory. But everybody knows the marxists will conduct an unprecedented and massive voter fraud operation.
Everybody has to vote. HAS TO VOTE. It will take the largest republican turnout ever to secure a victory and take the first step to reverse the tide of socialism.
My predictions:
1. Romney wins Ohio and the election.
2. GOP wins the Senate and holds the House.
3. The BSM deflects discussion of their inaccuracy/bias/both with in-depth reporting on the resurgence of raaaaacism in America.
Addendum:
If Romney Loses; Establishment Republicans will blame the Tea Party and declare that it’s time to Distance themselves from the Tea Party
If Romney Wins: Establishment Republicans will declare a Moderate Victory over the Tea Party and declare that it’s time to Distance themselves from the Tea Party
It’ll be intersting to see how they swing it if Akin somehow manages to pull through. What’s the establishment’s excuse then?
Ha, likely something like “Well, every party has to have its Al Franken.”
Agree JD…either way the MSM hates the Tea Party and will chime in with established Republican Party. But, when the dust settles, the Tea Party will be left standing and strong.
I agree that either way, the GOP establishment’s days are numbered. Romney, assuming he wins, is probably destined to be a one-term President. Here’s why: Either Romney does some necessary things to turn our economy and reputation around, or he doesn’t. If he does, there will be short-term pain, with most of the benefits accruing after the 2016 election, and that will doom a re-election bid. If he doesn’t, then he will find himself in 2016 in much the same situation that Obama finds himself now, at least with regard to economic policy. Being that Romney is the candidate that the Republican establishment championed from the start, their cred will be gone by 2016.
(BTW, I think Romney will surprise a lot of those country-club-Republican types and govern closer to the Tea Party than the establisment. But that doesn’t change the logic above.)
The effect of Sandy is that it gives Obama something to blame.
You can tell the Dems are nervous because Axelrod, Cutter, Todd, Matthews, Maddow, Schultz, are going crazy, which means they know they’re losing. Beckel was absolutely bonkers last night on O’Reilly. When liberals freak out more than normal just before an election, it’s a sure sign they’re about to experience a big loss. Visions of 2010 sugar plums (record Democrat legislative & other electoral losses across our fruited plain) should be dancing in everyone’s heads.
Juan Williams is freaking out too: very nice to see!
“Juan Williams is freaking out too: very nice to see!”
I can’t watch him anymore. He has lost all objectivity.
He couldn’t lose what he never had.
I can respect Juan as one of the more reasonable liberals, but even the reasonable ones are losing it right now. This honestly doesn’t bode well for the future of the nation if they can’t handle the possibility of losing power.
Williams is useful to hear the White House talking points verbatim.
You would think one of the 3 dinosaur networks would just have a meeting today and tomorrow and say “Lets start sucking up before Tuesday and at least stand out from the other 2″. I would pick CBS or ABC. NBC is just too far gone.
I predict (and it pains me to do so) ABC to stand out, for the simple reason(s) that their own polling is showing Romney with a slight lead (which really means he has a big lead) and also that they are reporting it.
Makes sense – they are the Disney-owned network – need to keep Orlando and that shady Anaheim theme park from suffering the reverse of a Chick-Fil-A!
Actually, I think the unhinged is starting to filter down to the rank and file. Last night, in New York City, no less, a Democrat was predicting, direly, that New York could “wind up” a swing state. He then proceeded to call me “crazy” for saying that was good reason for me to vote for Romney, as opposed to Johnson, and asking how I could favor those “backward ignorant Republicans”. Four years ago, their response would have been a “whatever”. They know their entire facade is coming apart. The only question is whether it comes down far enough in time.
Only the media is truly excited that Obama is ‘looking Presidential’ re Sandy. The rest of us are asking us where this new actually working (as in not golfing) Obama has been for the last four years? This new ‘image’ is a scandal since he is not campaigning against Romney with it, he’s campaigning against his own performance over the last four years.
The media gets excited over Obama photographed at a desk. Meh.
President Romney, 321 EV. (Everybody always forgets to add 1EV from ME)
“Everybody always forgets to add 1EV from ME”
They shouldn’t. I live here. The R lawn signs are amazing; Its all grassroots/Tea party too. Maine’s 2nd district is clearly up for grabs.
“Looking presidential” is definitely not helping Obama in the areas that were actually being hit by Sandy. Non-union electrical crews arriving from other states are being turned away by regulators in New Jersey. If Romney plays this right, he could swing that state.
“TOMORROW’S JOB NUMBERS!!!!!”" Are you kidding me! Who controls those numbers!? Who is going to fudge those numbers!? Is it possible that Obama gets the numbers drastically fudged and Romney loses as a result?!
I have to agree, it is quite disconcerting to think that the election may hinge on whether or not the Obama admin is honest in reporting jobs numbers the Friday before election day.
Wonder which 3 states will “forget” to turn in their unemployment numbers THIS time? (it will probably take more than just California forgetting to turn in their numbers to give the pResident the kind of “help” he needs).
Our job is to vote and get friends and neighbors to vote. Either America got wise or not.
I’m with you, Bryan. I’ve gotten to where I am numb at polls and data because I don’t know who to believe and less confidence about who is accurate. Living in Oklahoma, it is difficult to gauge the mood of the nation. Here, syphilis is more popular than Obama.
But if body language and spirit tell you and me anything, and I have to assume Romney and Obama have a lot better information than most of us, I would say Romney’s camp has an air of confidence, and Obama’s camp has an air of fear.
I’ll say it again. I think this will indeed by the largest turnout in history. But unlike some of these tin-foiled media types, I think there is a groundswell building against Obama. This 2008 turnouts may indeed by correct but for the wrong reasons – Romney is adequate and may make a good President. But this vote is a referendum on Obama.
Maybe that’s a conceit. But in my circles, I’ve never seen people more energized to vote as a referendum on four abysmal years of failure.
– you still have a war chest to empty; spend it in the remaining swing states.
“…spend it in the remaining swing states”
Like Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota.
I love how the definition of “swing state” keeps changing.
YES…they better spend EVERY DIME. From now to Tuesday morning. Empty every barrel, leave nothing but empty casings and smoke.
People are not only less than perfectly honest with pollsters, they are less than perfectly honest with themselves. A fair number of the Obama-inclined will insist to themselves, out of a sense of civic duty, that they are going to vote, but will in the end not go, sensing that the vote would not be in the country’s interest.
Others will vote democratic party line, but at the last moment leave the Presidential box blank, mirroring what we saw dramatically in the West Virginia democratic primary.
The large majority of these vague semi-conscious acts and omissions will tilt the vote toward Romney, who will win easily.
Proof of this concept: Dem governor and senator candidates will gather far higher vote counts than Obama across the board.
Joe Manchin and whoever survives Missouri (Nixon or McCaskill) – 2016. If not, the Democrats should just go the way of the Whigs.
Prediction: Romney wins in one of the following electoral college scenarios:
1) At least 275 to 263
2) Likely 295 to 243
3) Possible 337 to 201
4) Long-shot 359 to 179
Much as I would like to see 359-179, that would require winning all the rust belt Mn and a state like NJ. I’ll happily settle for 332
If it gets rid of Obama, I will happenly settle for 270 even. Anything else is just gravy.
Yes! Any of the above. All for Romney.
Obama’s poll numbers not looking good at all(even with D+8 samples). Expect bombing of Libyan aspirin factory any day now. He might even win another Nobel Peace Prize later this week.
That reminds me, what ever happened to those “Baby Milk Plant/Iraq” t-shirts?
Another Nobel Prize? Has he saved up enough boxtops yet? Or is he going to get in one last big lick at Israel in order to throw the Nobel committee into an orgasmic frenzy? Never mind aspirin factory…I think he’s going to carpet bomb Tel Aviv. Not to get re-elected, but because it’s something he has always wanted to do, and he may not ever get another opportunity.
I don’t think Obama made the UN Representative a cabinet position; I think that happened under Clinton as a means of increasing the attractiveness of the New York assignment to someone who really wanted to be Secstate. Maybe Albright? Don’t remember, but I know Susan Rice is not the first UN Rep to have “cabinet” status. As if that matters in an Obama administration — how many times has he met with his cabinet?
Win or lose…the one thing we will know with great precision on Tuesday is…the percentage of the country that is made up of idiots and exactly where they live.
I want a win for Romney as much as anyone on this board, but it’s not going to happen I’m afraid, even if (as I suspect) Romney wins the popular vote by 2-3%. Romney has known for a couple of weeks that Ohio is lost, which he demonstrated by making a big play for Wisconsin/Iowa. Then, he is afraid that he is lost in Wisconsin/Iowa, which is why he is trying “Hail Marys” in MN. and PA. Those states are not really possible for Romney, but they are the only path he has left.
Time/dollars spent in PA or MI or MN are just time/dollars not spent in Ohio or in Wisconsin. Why would the Romney campaign do that when all they need to do (in many scenarios) is take Ohio, unless they know that that train has left the station? After all, Romney is not running for a landslide….he’s running to get 270 EVs.
This assumes Romney takes Virginia and Colorado, which I think/hope he will, but which at this time are still tossups.
:facepalm:
Help the downticket races. Flip PA and you probably pick up a Senate seat and a couple of House seats with it, and it’s worth almost as much as Ohio.
Actually PA is worth a couple more EVs than Ohio. So if he took PA, he wouldn’t even need Ohio or the Wisconsin/Iowa Plan B. But Romney does’t have prayer in PA, unless the power is out in Philadelphia and only the rest of the state votes.
Wake up Harry. http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/pa-poll-obama-by-4-points-as-pro
Go back to your grave, Zombie. The Susquehanna poll is about to come out and I suspect that R is up 4-6 in PA.
If Pennsylvania does fall to Romney, the Lawyers will go absolutely BERSERK.
Sandy struck hardest in really BLUE Blue States (NY, NJ, Conn) so any “decreased voter turnout” issues would not likely change the way they fall. NY, NJ and Conn. are lost forever to Republicans, period.
But Pennsylvania is a whole ‘nother animal this time around. And the Democrats know it.
Romney has momentum and actually had a shot before Sandy. Obama is extremely, passionately unpopular outside Philly/Harrisburg and the few “guilty white liberal enclaves”. People are sick of the P/C urban media dictating the narrative, and several high paid (100 k average salary!) Suburban Teachers Unions went on STRIKE recently, pissing off whole swaths of normally quiet, media compliant “we’re not racists” 50/50 Blue/Red suburbs, where more people now feel “justified” in switching sides over fiscal/spending issues, without feeling embarrassment in front of their oh-so-educated-and-progressive neighbors.
It looked like Normal Folks were about to finally outweigh the Black Urban Democrat Machine and their Guilty White-Collar Professional Yuppie Apologists this time.
Then came Sandy, THE perfect excuse for Media Democrats to cry foul. Even if the net effect is zero, it will CERTAINLY be blamed for an Obama Loss of PA and The Whitehouse.
Basically, if Romney wins the election WITH Pennsylvania, but NOT with Ohio, expect A WHOLE LOT of Legal Actions to try and overturn this election. Obama will not go quietly into the night if there is a shred of Media speculation about voter turnout in “Storm States” and Pennsylvania is the only one Romney had a shot in. We need Pennsylvania AND Ohio, and hopefully a few others, to shut them up
So, given my “druthers”, I’d GIVE Obama PA…if only to deny them the opportunity to effectively Lawyer-Up with a “plausible cause” along the way to those Certain-To-Be-Expected-Post-Election-Riots, in Philly and elsewhere, that are GOING to occur in the event of Obama Defeat.
Riots, mind you, that will be capitalized by them and their Media Allies to overturn the election, or ask for an unprecedented “do-over” because of “The Storm That Changed the Election”.
They WILL do this, if Romney wins with Pennsylvania.
Mr Bergeron:
WaPo just moved Ohio from “leans Obama” to “toss up”.
As for “hail mary’s”, Romney has much more cash on hand than Obama.
And Obama IS vulnerable there, as polling suggests.
That’s why he’s making a play for those other states.
The amount of dis-information being spread by people like yoursalf is truly amazing.
PS,
I can’t type your handle’s first name, the thought of her makes me physically ill.
That said, it is likely we are going to witness an historic rebuke of the likes “Bergy the wonder troll” and his statist fellow travelers in a few short days.I have never seen the level of conviction from conservatives I am seeing now. I have more than a few friends who are what we call “BGCZ” voters. These are people who would belly crawl broken glass through a combat zone with snipers on the hill tops and HE mortar rounds going off to get to the polls this year and vote.
All the numbers related to early voting are breaking towards Romney and I strongly believe that his internals are telling him he can expand his targeted states.I think he gets between 315 and 321 in electoral college votes. He gets there by picking up surprises like PA, MI, and MT.
The scenario being put forth by “Bergy” isn’t supported by numbers. It’s meant to douse enthusiasm. Nice try.
Sanizdat:
If people are fired-up enough to go to Chik-Fil-A to prove a point, they’re more than energized to vote the fraud out of office. That’s what poker players call a “tell”. The MSM just doesn’t want you to know that.
I don’t believe that Romney can take PA or MN.
MI could surprise.
And I just don’t see how the “ground game” that was put in place for Walker’s recall election suddenly vanished in two years with an extremely important Presidential and Senate election looming.
PS,
Susquehana has R and O tied, I believe. The Smith Casey Race also helps Romney. Romney is likely ahead in the suburbs of Philly. If turnout comes his way, he can win in PA. Watch Bucks county, that’s your tell.
If that happens Obumbles is history before 10:30 pm.
Well Mi is a tougher win for Romney than Pa. If Romney wins Mi he’ll get Oh, Pa, and Wi as well, and probably have coattails enough to pull a couple of Senators across with him. One can hope.
Samizdat,
I’m in Bucks County PA, see my above comments about the perils of a Romney Victory in PA
(yeah, it was our teachers on strike BTW…the bastards!)
Concern trolling is so cute.
Well, he is a life-long conservative.
Amazing how obvious the “Operation Demoralize” troops are, isn’t it?
Harrison, Romney is making a very rational choice to spend surplus money in states that could give him a winning path that doesn’t include Ohio. I expect Romney to just barely win Ohio, Iowa, and Wisconsin, but not Pennsylvania, Michigan, or Minnesota. Winning Wisconsin probably means that a recount in Ohio or any one state wouldn’t flip the result plus it gives Republicans a boost in a close senate race. Good insurance. In addition, expanding the map a little might make a difference in some down ballot races.
I think that’s a plausible reason why Romney would divert dollars from Ohio…that he has the extra $$$ and Ohio is already super-saturated. But not so plausible an explanation as to why he’d spend them in MN or MI, rather than in Iowa or Wisconsin, where he’s close but a hair behind.
Recent Ad buys:
Wisconsin – $10.8M total: Romney $7.8M, Obama $3M
Iowa – $9.8M total: Romney $6.7M, Obama $3M
http://ace.mu.nu/
You’re entitled to your own opinion, but not your own facts.
We understand you’re desperate at this point.
Perhaps you should try to hide it a little better.
You assume that he is diverting resources from Ohio. At this point it is quite probable that there are very very few places where either campaign can EFFECTIVELY spend advertising money. There is only so much media time available. Buying more ads when they are running at 3:00 am is probably a waste of money.
*pfft*
Nope, not even. I live in MO. We barely went McCain last time. If Romney were on the defensive, we’d be in play. NO ONE … let me repeat … NO ONE is making a play for us. We are squarely in the Romney/Ryan camp. You don’t see any Obama or R/R ads on local TV, only the ones going national. Good luck getting so much as a yard sign for either side. We have one of the few R/R yard signs around, and they out-number Obama signs by at least 5:1 in our neighborhood. The only other campaign action is local action like McCaskill v. Akin or the state governor’s race, things like that.
If R/R were on the defensive, he’d be shoring up behind himself which would include backing into states MO, not expanding into states that are traditionally thought of as blue strongholds and locks for Obama. Instead, it’s Obama who’s having to shore up behind himself as his opponent begins attacking behind the lines of scrimmage.
Never said Romney is playing defense. Said he’s playing a desperation offense. Said also Romney is not full of confidence and trying for a landslide, said he’s trying increasingly unlikely paths to pull out a victory.
The only one desperate here is you.
Hope you stocked-up on the Kleenex, you’re gonna need ‘em.
Happy trolling!
Desperation Offense!! LOL! You must be the guy who gave Obama the “leading from behind” line. Well buddy, this is what trouncing from ahead looks like when said trouncing is coming your way.
(Hint: if you nail your other shoe to the floor you can stop spinning.)
how much does your line of work pay, Harrison? I could use some work.
Romney is running ads like crazy in Ohio. The GOP PACs are doing the same. They haven’t given up on Ohio. Rasmussen has Ohio in Romney’s column today. He could still win the electoral vote without Ohio. There are numerous paths to doing that.
I wonder how many are voting this time that stayed home last time just on the “What the heck did they do to us” ticket? I gotta go vote this id10t they gave us out of there!
Here is a good conversation on this very topic from two Constitutional scholars!
Uploaded on Feb 7, 2012 Mises Institute chairman and founder Lew Rockwell and Future of Freedom president Jacob Hornberger sit down with Judge Andrew Napolitano on Freedom Watch to explain how both political parties are really just two wings of the same bird of prey. Fox Business 2/6/12
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wy632HTYpF8
Spew Rockwell folks? Hope they remembered the clown noses and squeaky shoes.
I know of NO ONE who thinks that Romney’s name—scrawled in the sand of the Jersey shore for Obama’s flyover—was put there by a “bitter Democrat.”
Really?
I saw one picture, looked to me like someone put “SUCKS” underneath it but it got scratched out. Letters were about the same size if they finished, so I figure it was the “original author”
I’m for Romney, and fled Commie-crowded Jersey a LONG time ago…wouldnt put it past any “jersey Shore-on” moron to do something like that…
Maybe a Romney guy kicked up the “sucks” part?
Exactly, precisely, that has been my feeling for years. Two years ago I was on the local snow bird committee and pushed to go some place other than California because of their politics, and won.
The signs say Ohio is NOT lost. Yet.
I’ve had to cut through a number of different neighborhoods to get from point A to point B, because major roads are under construction. What I’ve seen:
Middle class/blue collar areas: Romney signs outnumber Obama’s roughly 2 to 1
Middle class/professional areas: Romney signs outnumber Obama 4 to 3
Here’s an interesting “tell” as well.
I live in Brookline, Mass. – certainly one of the bluest of blue areas here. But on this street, unlike 4 years ago, there is precisely one Obama/Biden sign. One.
To paraphrase Joe “Gaffe-Machine” Biden, “that’s a BIG freaking deal.” They’re demoralized and apathetic, and it shows.
Regarding giving social approved answers to pollsters and to others, I offer the following:
In November, 2008, after having been to the polls earlier in the day to cast my vote for McCain, I stopped by the grocery store for a gallon of milk and a loaf of bread. At 7:50 P.M., ten minutes before the polls closed, I was at the checkout counter. The young cashier was finishing up with the woman ahead of me. The young cashier was exuberant in that she had just voted in her very first election. She proudly wore an “I VOTED” sticker. She enthusiastically asked the customer she was serving if she had voted yet. The woman replied, “No, not yet. I just wanted to stop by to pick up a few groceries before going to the polls to vote.”
Apart from the physical impossibility of getting out to her car with her groceries and then driving to the nearest polling station by 8:00 P.M., there was one slight detail telling me she was lying. At the top of her grocery bag was a gallon of ice cream.
“Apart from the physical impossibility of getting out to her car with her groceries and then driving to the nearest polling station by 8:00 P.M., there was one slight detail telling me she was lying. At the top of her grocery bag was a gallon of ice cream.”
I’ve heard rumours of some exotic new technology that would let you buy ice cream and not eat it right away. Apparently, this new gadget lets you store food and keeps it fresh for days. What was it called again? Oh yeah, a “freezer”….
It seems to me that such a gadget might make it possible for her to drop off a bag of groceries and still make it to the polling station in time to vote, especially if the polling station were nearby and your watch was a few minutes fast.
Secretary of Business — what’s next, Department of Putting Things On Top of Other Things?
Secretary of Very Small Rocks and Secretary of Silly Walks to be followed by the Spam Czar.
…Who will cut open the cans of spam with….
A HERRING!
Secretary for the letter Q.
Secretary of Shrubbery.
Ministry of shiny little objects, and the drooling defectives in charge of them.
285 EVs for Romney.
In case you were wondering what kind of person votes for Obama:
http://bluemars1.wordpress.com/2012/10/30/what-kind-of-person-votes-for-obama/
So… ermm.. smash the state, vote Obama? It’s actually kind of logical.
I’d be more reassured about Ohio if you hadn’t cited the Architect of the Permanent Republican Majority.
295+ for Romney/Ryan.
My map:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/obama_vs_romney_create_your_own_electoral_college_map.html?map=HI_1,AK_5,FL_6,NH_7,MI_4,VT_1,ME_2,ME2_4,RI_1,NY_1,PA_4,NJ_2,DE_1,MD_1,VA_7,WV_5,OH_7,IN_5,IL_1,CT_2,WI_7,NC_6,DC_1,MA_1,TN_5,AR_5,MO_6,GA_5,SC_5,KY_5,AL_5,LA_5,MS_5,IA_7,MN_4,OK_5,TX_5,NM_4,KS_5,NE_5,NE2_5,SD_5,ND_5,WY_5,MT_5,CO_6,ID_5,UT_5,AZ_5,NV_4,OR_2,WA_1,CA_1
It’ll be a squeaker but Romney will win in the electoral college. But that won’t be a “result,” just an incident. The country will be as divided on Sept. 7 as it was on Sept. 5.
Romney is too much the weenie to attempt to end population replacement. He either won’t speak of it or will accept open borders because we’re supposed to be a nation of immigrants, never mind that these so-called immigrants are invaders and colonists.
The immivasion will go on just as before and anybody who objects will be branded under the present cultural Marxist rules as a “racist.” So the spineless white middle class will simply go on colluding in its own demise.
Until it decides not to.
Then you better hope this thing gets decided in the eastern time zone. If Romney needs Nevada and New Mexico to squeak it out, Brian Sandoval and Susana “Naca” Martinez will have more pull than acceptable. The only hope is that Fiorello LaGuardia was hardly a shady mafioso, Benjamin Disraeli was hardly a marxist, and Bobby Jindal is hardly an Apu.
“The country will be as divided on Sept. 7 as it was on Sept. 5.”
Did you mean to say NOVEMBER 7 and NOVEMBER 5?
“Where the race stands”
Gross… Latest Liberal Ad: Obama Supporters Shoot, Hack, Bludgeon and Bomb Romney Supporters (Video)
http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2012/11/latest-liberal-ad-obama-supporters-shoot-hack-bludgeon-murder-romney-supporters-video/
Sorry to take up so much space on your thread, but I just felt people needed to see this.
IMHO – this is not the tone of a confident, winning campaign
I see it in obama’s face…
his campaign is over. he hopes for the best, but definitely expects the worst.
nj is his swan song. I can see it in his face, and christie’s as well…
things aren’t going well. their concern is evident.
the msm has been waiting to report the success, but they are going to have to wait another month. they don’t get how bad it is, and their timeline is insane. they don’t want to paint another katrina, but the are so many tiny pockets that are growing closer to a flashpoint.
I want romeny to win badly, but I also hope that what obama will be remembered for was a successful relief effort as his last official act.
Yes this is something that hasn’t been mentioned as much. This could be the beginning of the “Obama Redemption Tour” that will be foisted on us in an effort to redeem the Democrat party in the eyes of independents.
As everyone keeps saying, it’s all going to come down to turnout. And, let me tell you, Republicans and conservatives are MOTIVATED to win. They’re almost rabid to win. I just don’t see that same type of enthusiasm on the Obama team. This really, really, isn’t 2008 anymore for Obama, and they know it. He has a bad record to defend and no plan for the future. It’s a wonder Obama is doing as well as he is in the polls.
The new Judicial Watch blockbuster feature documentary, District of Corruption, directed by Stephen K. Bannon, lays bare the lawless and unconstitutional Obama administration and makes the case for more openness, integrity, and honesty in government and leads the way for changing the climate of corruption that has gripped Washington, D.C. for far too long.
http://www.judicialwatch.org/districtofcorruptionmovie/
All presidents make mistakes. But it really seems like O was born to make more trouble than he’s worth. And I think a fairly large—as in landslide size—majority of adults have concluded that he has to go.
I seldom look at horse race polls. I pay attention to the sentiments inside core blocks of voters. In 2008 Obama got 53% of the vote in a year of unprecedented black and college aged turnout. The far left was 100% behind him. He dominated the women’s vote. He ran extremely well in the suburbs. He got a large libertarian vote. He even got a fair percentage of Republicans who saw electing the first black president as a good thing for the nation.
Starting with the Republicans, Obama still has Colin Powell and maybe David Frum. BFD. “Liberaltarianism” was a complete bust. While a hand full of the most nihilistic and jejune libertarians will vote third party most will vote for Romney simply to stop Obama. A poor job market, high energy prices and particularly the corrupt and racially polarizing Chicago Way has greatly eroded Obama’s suburban support. The War Against Women theme has flopped because most women do not see themselves as the mere sum of their lady parts. Camille Paglia is openly going Green Party and she will be joined by others on the far left. That leaves young voters and blacks, both groups of which seem decidedly less enthused than in 2008.
On top of it all, Obama has managed to tick off a lot of Catholics, evangelicals and Jews. PJ Media has been full of Obama’s Jewish problem. Catholics represent about 24% of the population. They gave Obama 54% of their vote in 2008. That isn’t going to happen this year, not with the US Catholic Conference of Bishops entering the election in a way I have never seen before. So far I have received three copies of the USCCB guide to casting an informed vote plus several sermons on how being on the wrong side of the pro life issues and the free exercise of religion disqualifies a candidate from consideration. Finally many evangelicals sat out 2008 because they disliked McCain and didn’t trust Obama. This article shows they are as fired up as the Catholic Bishops. An evangelical turnout swings Ohio back into the R column.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203707604578090962267200892.html?KEYWORDS=daniel+henninger
As far as I can tell there is only one group who is almost as fired up for Obama today as they were in 2008- mainstream journalists. They are but a tiny fraction of the urban population and they are losing more influence daily.
When you look at all the places where Obama is bleeding supporters from 2008 only a major last minute bombshell that would disqualify squeaky clean Mitt can save him.
If I may summarize your excellent post:
You can’t spend 4 years demonizing everyone in sight and expect to get re-elected. Evenutally you wind-up pissing some group off that helped you get elected in the first place.
Kudos!
Who is voting for Mitt Romney? AKA let’s save America.
Catholics – who have been challenged by Obama in their faith and beliefs.
Blacks – who are against same-sex marriages as being immoral and who have suffered most from Obama’s failures.
Whites – who see that Blacks are voting for Obama because he’s Black; Whites will vote for Whites.
Republicans – none of which voted for Obamacare.
Tea Party followers – who like in 2010 are throwing out Liberals and RHINOS again.
Coal Miners – who are taking Obama’s threats to end coal mining in America seriously.
Vehicle drivers – those who are faced with TWICE the cost of gas since Obama took office.
Jobless workers – those who have been waiting for Obama to create jobs, but hasn’t; many have left the job market.
Stock and Bond holders – many of whom were shafted when GM and Chrysler went bankrupt.
Small Business owners – who have repeatedly been ignored by Obama.
Citizens against Obamacare – because of the upcoming increase in taxes and excessive regulation if Obamacare is not repealed.
Jewish folks – because Obama has not visited Israel even once since taking office; and Obama’s bad attitude toward Israel.
Hispanics – those who know that Obama’s failure to create sufficient jobs is hurting the U.S. economy in a bad way.
Business people – millions who are hesitant to grow because of the vast uncertainty due to Obama and Obamacare.
Workers – facing layoffs, underemployment and a worsening economy; lower wages.
Shoppers – those who see prices rising and product size shrinking; inventories reduced.
Concerned Citizens – who see the Benghazi incident as an Obama failure and even treasonous (un-American).
Concerned Citizens – who see Obama’s foreign policies as dangerous and failures.
Persons of Faith – who recognize Obama’s forcing provision by them of contraception to employees as Constitutional violations.
Gun owners – who have always been against the extreme liberal ideas Obama has for gun control.
Local government officials – who see Obama’s federal encroachment as unacceptable.
Truckers – who see the high price of gas as an attack on their livelihood.
Oil business – that reject Obama’s curbs on off-shore drilling.
Oil industry workers – that recognize the Keystone pipeline as Obama’s failure to encourage jobs and job growth.
Americans – who view Obama’s encouragement of high oil prices and lowered U.S. oil production as favoring OPEC and Arabs.
Concerned Congressmen – those that recognize that Obama has no cogent foreign policy, which could prove to be dangerous.
Individuals
Homeowners – who have seen their life saving and equity go down the drain because Obama has done nothing on the economy.
Health care providers – doctors and others who see Obamacare as a threat to their income; and harmful extreme regulations.
Concerned citizens – that are very concerned about the U.S. deficit and Obama’s extreme radical uncontrolled spending.
Others – concerned about Obama’s illegal activities, Fast and Furious, Benghazi, not defending DOMA, condoning illegal aliens.
Abortion foes – object to Obama’s callous lack of concern for the unborn and Obama’s radical third trimester abortion views.
Concerned Americans – who have been outright lied to by Obama when he claimed his administration would be transparent.
Car manufacturers – those that have seen car sales drop with Obama’s bad economy and economic policies hurting sales.
Housing developers – who like many others have seen the Obama economy cripple home construction and lower profits.
Mormons – who support Mitt Romney as a person of faith, good character, and honest principles.
Economists – that have expressed encouragement that Romney’s experience and knowledge will lead to true hope and results.
Military – seeing that Obama’s cuts will endanger their ability to protect our country.
Independents – who already have provided a surge for Romney, are convinced that the past 4 years of Obama is enough.
Evangelicals – who organized the largest get-out-the-vote for conservatism ever, in their concerted effort to defeat Obama.
Conservatives – a majority in U.S., are pushing hard to take the Senate, Presidency and House for the good of America.
Skeptics – who 4 years ago were duped into believing in Obama’s Hope and Change that eventually came to nothing, just lies.
Disillusioned Democrats – who have been utterly disappointed in Obama and will not vote for Obama or not vote at all.
and millions, millions more against Obama and his lies and failures.
Vote Mitt Romney/Paul Ryan. Let’s make America strong and great again because we can!
You forgot ninjas, jugglers, blacksmiths, cobblers, fire-eaters, plate-spinners & organ grinders . . . oh, wait, no you didn’t. You covered them with ‘Jobless workers.’
I saw a recent article spouting off about 2008 McCain voters who now support Obama. It’s a group easy to spot – they ride unicorns.
And they probably complain becasue the unicorns don’t have padded seats.
How can Obama rely on tomorrow’s job numbers when every job numbers report has had to be revised downward after the fact? People are foolish if they believe tomorrow’s job numbers.
“FOR OUR NATIONAL DAY OF PRAYER:ROMNEY & RYAN & AMERICA”
To our shame, our devotions became casual,
Even though YOU have always been there.
When our nation was born, and later, when torn,
By the threats which oft led to despair.
How soon we forgot “Founding Fathers”,
Whose success against tyrants was due
To YOUR care, to YOUR love, to YOUR hands from above,
Which created the miracle we view.
Through the years, tyranny kept returning,
And our need made us reach out again,
And we pled, and we cried, and the best of us died,
Fighting enemies of freedom and sin.
New perils now prompt new petitions,
We must relearn lessons lost from the past,
Without THY protection, and enduring affection,
We will lose THIS FREE LAND that must last.
No rights reserved. “God is in the Game, once again.” We are not talking “creeds; doctrines; chapels/synagogues/cathedrals”. We are talking about faith in a Supreme Being, however we envision such, and WHOSE “ALMIGHTY HAND MADE AND PRESERVED THIS NATION”. Pray, contribute, encourage, BELIEVE, and then vote to make belief–reality. IT WILL COME.
ROMNEY & RYAN WIN BIG IN JUST A FEW MORE DAYS!
I just returned from a trip this afternoon, so this was my first opportunity to vote. Even though we were very tired from a long day we waited in line well over an hour. Wait times in our area have been from one to two hours all week. This matters because we live in one of the more Conservative area of Florida. Turnout in early voting is huge.
Rampant INjustice
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bFALonjLay0feature=player_embedded
Geee, thanks for more hypothesis. When you got something, let us know.
I tend to avoid most discussions of polls, but in times like these you can’t help but absorb a certain amount through simple osmosis. The scariest thing to me? Dick Morris’ prognostication of a Romney landslide. I mean, is he ever right about these things?
In 2010 he was the only one who predicted the numbers of Republican gains. Out in front, and he was right. Who do you want, Nate Silver, who missed it entirely in 2010?
Dick Morris engineered BJ Clinton’s re-election, so he might know something about re-election campaigns and their chances.
Just sayin’…
Obama will not get the Jewish vote; he will get fewer, I say 60 Obama – 40 Romney.
Trust me, we are a stiff-necked people, sad to say.
Nonetheless, Mitt wins big without my people and takes PA and Tom Smith along with him!
Jews care about Israel (they celebrate 3000 years of unique identity): advantage Romney the patriot.
Jews shrug Israel off and play footsies (mentally, at least) with Hamas and the rest of the jihadi fanatics: advantage Obama the submissive dhimmi.
Your choice, bubbi.
Even if Jews go 60-Obama 40-Rromey, don’t they usually go something like 85-D 15-R? Even if they don’t wind up on the whole supporting Romney, the defection of even a sizable percent of such a typically consistent Democratic voting block hurts them a lot. I heard on the radio that Jews were supporting Romney more than any other Republican in recent history (or at least abandoning Obama more than any recent Democrat). If this is true it has huge implications for the race.
There is the electoral version, and God grant it foreclude the harsher:
Sic semper tyrannis.
Julius Caesar was despatched a tyrant, as was Charles First. May the Alinsky-ite Organizer profit from the lesson and go quietly into his undeserved but quite lucrative retirement come next January.
I’m actually somewhat worried about that. If someone is dumb enough to assassinate Obama, he will be canonized as the next JFK or MLK, and instead of his ideas and record being exposed for the failures they are they’ll be elevated to the status of the dreams a martyr died for, both in the popular narrative and in the classroom. Obamacare for example would instantly become absolutely unassailable and nobody would be allowed to say mean things about it anymore, in memory of poor Barak. Sure a president Biden would probably be less destructive in the short term, but in the long term there’s an endless supply of socialist tyrants the Democrats can serve us with, and having a St. Obama in the American pantheon will make them far more likely to be elected.
November 2, 2012 by Gary DeMar Filed Under 2012 Election, Unions NJ Turns Away Non-Union Utility Workers from Alabama
http://politicaloutcast.com/2012/11/nj-turns-away-non-union-utility-workers-from-alabama/
Only FOUR days left now, folks!
PLEASE take a moment to watch (and share) this video before Tuesday — especially with your undecided friends: http://a203.it/i6e.
Are you all prepared to live with the possible nightmare? If you are financially secure, then you can recede into your own world for another 4 years or more and just ignore it, mostly. However for the majority of conservatives, real Americans, true patriots, are you prepared to put your dreams and aspirations on hold for another decade or more? If bozo gets re-elected it won’t be simply 4 years on hold.. no, the damage will take us a decade to recover, and for some never. There is no place else to go.. even if there was, the other country wouldn’t permit us living there more or less permanently. This is it. A friend of mine died a couple of weeks ago from cancer at a young age in his 60s. As sad as that was, I think he might be the lucky one.
Oh, how I wish I could be as confident of a Romney victory as some others here are.
NO, I’m not a “troll”. And, I actually do think R/R has better than even odds chance of winning, at least in a FAIR election (more on that in a moment).
OK. Rasmussen today has R/R and Hussein tied at 48/48. Rasmussen predicted the results of the last election within one point. They are pretty good. Not perfect, but probably better than most other pollsters.
The good news in Rasmussen’s numbers: Obama’s approval is at 49%. Approval rating for the incumbent is historically the best indicator of the share of the vote they get. So far, so good. Also, Obama’s “approval index” – that’s the difference between “strongly approve” and “strongly disapprove” – is negative 11, and has been between negative ten and negative sixteen for many many weeks. This helps us on turnout.
But Rasmussen is also projecting that Obama “probably” has 237 EVs, versus 206 probably EVs for R/R. Neither has it wrapped up, but Obama starts out ahead.
I live in Ohio. I see a lot more R/R yard signs than Hussein yard signs. On the other hand, a lot of people I talk to actually believe that Hussein’s auto bailout really did work and that’s why Ohio has a better job picture than most of the country. May not really be factual, but that is a widely held perception, and that’s all that matters in the polling booth.
How does such a failed president get so close to being re-elected?
Start with the assumption per Bill O’Reilly, that I agree with, that roughly 30% of the American public is of the Euro-style entitlement mentality and is squarely behind Obama even if he is caught soliciting for his daughters. This is the segment that Romney was really referring to with his “47%” remark; numbers were off but he was right that a large part of America, he is never going to get. This is confirmed by the numbers I’m seeing on Rasmussen about “strongly approve” of Obama: they are consistently in the 28%-31% range.
Where do the other 17-20% that get Obama within realistic striking distance of being re-elected in spite of being the Worst President In History come from?
Outside of FOX, WSJ, and conservative talk radio, ALL OTHER national-level news media, print and broadcast, is solidly behind Obama. People who get most of their news from a source other than those I just listed here – take your pick: CNN, MSNBC, NBC, ABC, CBS, USA Today, NYT, LA Times, WaPo, etc., etc., are getting nothing but the Obama propaganda show. Any one of these outlets might be getting beat in ratings/circulation one-on-one compared with FOX or WSJ, for example, but collectively, most people get their info from the Obama media.
Now, anyone who is basically doing OK in their job, finances, etc., at a personal level (even in this economy, that’s still a fair number of people), AND who gets their news from the Obama media – and with these two parameters I’ve probably described a lot of folks – is probably going to support Obama. Many of them will buy the b.s. line that Obama is ‘doing the best anyone could with a bad situation he inherited from that jerk, Bush, and that Romney is just Daddy Warbucks or Ebeneezer Scrooge incarnate and will throw little old ladies off a cliff if he gets elected’, etc. Beyond the 30% of Obama’s core support, I don’t see where it is that hard at all to generate another 20% this way.
In short, by means of a combination of an outragously corrupt national media, combined with the stupidity and complacency of large swaths of the population, no, Virginia, we may not wake up from this nightmare next week and return to something resembling sanity. Welcome to the United States of Venezuela, or the Saudi States of America. Turn in all firearms at the door…and don’t expect to get them back.
Don’t get me wrong. I’m not saying Obama WILL win. Like I said at the outset, I think R/R has a better than even odds chance of winning somehow. “Somehow” may well be a very close, litigated outcome. But Obama COULD win, and as for the chances of a R/R “landslide”…Hey, I’d like to see that, too. But I just can’t see that happening.
One last thing: I can tell you that the Romney Campaign and Tea Party here in Ohio is heavily mobilized, and that includes a lot of poll watchers. But there is NOTHING I put past Obama and Co. In a truly fair election, I’d expect a R/R victory, but I don’t expect a fair election. There is GOING TO BE massive voter fraud, possible buggering of vote counting machinery, etc. Romney has to win big in real terms in order to win at all, to overcome this. Keep that in mind, people, so as not to be overly shocked if you wake up on Nov. 7 to four more years of the Islamist-Butt-Kisser-Left-Wing-Snotty-Grad-Student-Twit-In-Chief.
GET OUT AND VOTE VOTE VOTE!!!