SurveyUSA’s weird Ohio early voter poll caused me to wonder whether early voter polls are the new bogus exit poll, in that the poll didn’t seem to reflect reality and skewed very Democratic. It reported that Obama had a massive 62-36 point lead among early voters in Ohio. Such a large lead seems unlikely in a state that consistently polls as statistically dead even.
The latest Gallup poll, however, surveys early voting nationally, has a larger sample size and tracks with Gallup’s own national polling very well. And it shows Romney doing very well.
Romney Leads Among Early Voters, Similar to His Likely Voter Lead
Thus far, early voters do not seem to be swaying the election toward either candidate.
Romney currently leads Obama 52% to 45% among voters who say they have already cast their ballots. However, that is comparable to Romney’s 51% to 46% lead among all likely voters in Gallup’s Oct. 22-28 tracking polling. At the same time, the race is tied at 49% among those who have not yet voted but still intend to vote early, suggesting these voters could cause the race to tighten. However, Romney leads 51% to 45% among the much larger group of voters who plan to vote on Election Day, Nov. 6.
The 52-45 lead among early voters combined with the 51-45 lead among Election Day voters spells doom for the president.
If you’d like a bit more encouraging and bucking up, take a look at this new NPR Battleground poll. It only shows a one-point lead for Romney across the swing states. That doesn’t sound good, but two factors within the poll make it better. One, it uses a small sample size of just 466 voters spread across 12 battleground states. Small sample sizes tend to skew toward Obama yet Romney leads here. And two, the sample has a ridiculous D+8 skew. The larger national Gallup survey finds that Republicans actually outnumber Democrats this year by a point. Romney’s lead in this NPR battleground states poll is therefore larger by several points than the poll’s results indicate in its top line number.
Trending and momentum are all Romney’s. Obama continues to shed votes. I doubt the margin will tighten, rather expect it to expand. Final voting will be a minimum of seven points, and that is including the Democrat fraud. Speaking of which, when can we expect the GOP to enact decent election protections for legitimate voters?
All of the factors and trends are in the right direction:
1. republican enthusiasm is up
2. democrat enthusiasm is down
3. even in the biased polls, Romney is improving
4. polls have traditionlly favored dems by around 3%
5. Gallup and Rasmussen have been the most reliable polls and they favor Romney
6. the Fraud has been an abject disaster as a president. It can’t be hidden
7. Romney proved he isn’t an ogre in the debates. Quite the contrary.
8. the Fraud’s odious campaign has to impact a lot of low-information voters
9. Benghazi
10. independents poll very strongly for Romney, even in the biased polls.
11. the Iowa newspapers
12. the Detroit newspaper, the Orlando newspaper
13. in Wisconsin, republicans have won the last several elections
14. the governor of Ohio is republican
15. undecided voters traditionally break for the challenger
16. incumbants who can’t get above 50% in the biased polls typically lose
17. the Fraud is reduced to ridiculously marginal issues
The only factors in the Fraud’s favor are fraud, the Slimes designated propagandist poll sorcerer, and Intrade (which I believe can be easily manipulated by people who will do anything to win. How can anybody look at the still biased polls and say that the Fraud has a 62.6% chance of winning. It doesn’t compute.). Voter fraud is the biggest risk…until the October Surprise happens.
What needs to be taken into account, and what worries me the most, is that Democrat early voters may only be at step one of the famous Chicago political dictum “vote early, vote often.” As @weo pointed out.