SurveyUSA’s weird Ohio early voter poll caused me to wonder whether early voter polls are the new bogus exit poll, in that the poll didn’t seem to reflect reality and skewed very Democratic. It reported that Obama had a massive 62-36 point lead among early voters in Ohio. Such a large lead seems unlikely in a state that consistently polls as statistically dead even.
The latest Gallup poll, however, surveys early voting nationally, has a larger sample size and tracks with Gallup’s own national polling very well. And it shows Romney doing very well.
Romney Leads Among Early Voters, Similar to His Likely Voter Lead
Thus far, early voters do not seem to be swaying the election toward either candidate.
Romney currently leads Obama 52% to 45% among voters who say they have already cast their ballots. However, that is comparable to Romney’s 51% to 46% lead among all likely voters in Gallup’s Oct. 22-28 tracking polling. At the same time, the race is tied at 49% among those who have not yet voted but still intend to vote early, suggesting these voters could cause the race to tighten. However, Romney leads 51% to 45% among the much larger group of voters who plan to vote on Election Day, Nov. 6.
The 52-45 lead among early voters combined with the 51-45 lead among Election Day voters spells doom for the president.
If you’d like a bit more encouraging and bucking up, take a look at this new NPR Battleground poll. It only shows a one-point lead for Romney across the swing states. That doesn’t sound good, but two factors within the poll make it better. One, it uses a small sample size of just 466 voters spread across 12 battleground states. Small sample sizes tend to skew toward Obama yet Romney leads here. And two, the sample has a ridiculous D+8 skew. The larger national Gallup survey finds that Republicans actually outnumber Democrats this year by a point. Romney’s lead in this NPR battleground states poll is therefore larger by several points than the poll’s results indicate in its top line number.