Democratic polling outfit Public Policy Polling would like you to believe that the race in North Carolina is on the razor’s edge.
PPP’s newest poll finds Barack Obama and Mitt Romney dead even at 48%. In 3 September PPP polls of the state we found a tie twice and a one point Obama lead the third time. Taking a bigger picture look, in 26 Obama/Romney polls dating back to November of 2010 we have only found the candidates separated by more than 3 points one time. It would be hard for the race in North Carolina to be much tighter.
How does PPP arrive at this 48-48 tie? Looking at page three, we find the answer: Democrats make up 48% of the respondents, while Republicans only make up 34%.
Is it possible that Democrats outnumber Republicans by 14%, and will vote that way on November 6, in North Carolina?
Sure, it’s possible. It’s also possible that space monkeys will descend from their base on one of Jupiter’s moons to declare a cheese war on the US Virgin Islands tomorrow.
Just about anything is possible. In the world of the probable, though, it’s not likely that an unpopular president will overwhelm his opposition by 14 points in North Carolina. Not with a local Democratic governor so badly damaged that she didn’t even seek re-election. Not in a state that where Obama only got an 11 point gap in 2008 when he was still the lightbringer who would work his hope and change miracle magic on America. Not when Republicans poll as far more motivated to vote this year, and when Romney consistently leads among independent voters.
The hard fact for Obama is that he enjoyed a huge 11-point gap over McCain in North Carolina in 2008. He still only won the state by a few thousand votes. He has to perform just as well as he did in 2008, and there is no reason to think that he will do that. North Carolina tends to vote Republican at the top of the ticket. Pollsters this year seem to be using a flawed model that preserves 2008′s exceptional Obama performance.
I’m not saying that North Carolina will be a GOP blowout. But I do think Romney will win it. I don’t think PPP’s polls tend to be very useful.
Well, since Obama’s victory is sure, the democratic voters need not mobilize and run to the polls by the zillions. They can stay home this time, everything will be perfect.
So basically, Obama’s ideal scenario in North Carolina still results in a tie. Based on the current situation, Obama will do not better than the PPP poll, and probably much worse. Rasmussen has NC as Leans Romney, which is consistent with this PPP poll, as this poll basically represents Obama’s best case scenario.
Neither candidate is campaigning in North Carolina, yet PPP – the polling wing of the dailykos/SEIU – has it as a dead heat.
If the most liberally skewed poll out there can only get it to a tie, Romney will win it by 5-7 points easily.
Obama believes this poll; that’s why he’s down here campaigning. Oh wait…
He hasn’t been here since the DNC, which drove Dem support down – there was no convention bounce here.
If he believed NC was in play he’d be here once/week like he was in 08. It will be a blow out. I’ll say it. He won’t even get ’47%’ here.
NC voter here, with some personal observations.
Democrats outnumber Republicans in this state simply because for many decades they were really the only game in town. You registered as a Democrat because that’s what your father registered as, that’s what your grandfather registered as, great-grandfather…etc.
Southern Democrats were also generally far more conservative than northern Republicans. They used to make folks like Romney/Ryan look like bleeding heart liberals.
Not necessarily the case so much anymore, and the Reagan Revolution had a lot to do with it.
The state is far more diverse politically now – one of the happy results of NC becoming a destination state for more folks relocating over the past 20-30 years.
Then you have a thoroughly corrupt NC Democrat party apparatus that keeps watching their office holders in a constant stream go to trial or even prison for one reason or another.
Yes, Beverly Perdue is also extremely unpopular, and will tend to drag down Obammer even further in this state.
(In case you forgot, she’s the one who suggested elections be suspended – then tried to claim she was joking….)
Within my own immediate family, my sister and older brother are voting Obammer, I used to have far more confidence in their intelligence.
My younger brother is voting Romney. No big surprise there.
My elderly parents, who enthusiastically voted for Odummer in ’08, now hate the man and are definitely voting for Romney this time around. In fact, Mom stated a desire for the first time in her life to not split her ticket and vote straight Republican!
She has NEVER done that before.
They are painfully aware of what he’s been doing with Medicare/Medicaid, know first hand just how bad the economy has gotten (Dad has his own small business), and are flabbergasted that at least 2 of their offspring have no more sense than to vote for Obammer a second time!
Oh, and me?
I spent decades registered as a Democrat (voted like a Reagan Democrat, however) and things have gotten so bad I couldn’t stand it anymore and re-registered as a Republican. My wife and I are both voting R/R.
So, out of 6 registered voters from my immediate family (not including da wifey), 4 voted for Obammer in ’08 and 2 voted McCain – but now 4 are voting R/R and only 2 are voting Obammer. Hopefully those kinds of percentages will hold.
I also don’t see nearly as many Odumbo bumper stickers on the road when 4 years ago that’s all you saw. There is definitely an enthusiasm gap working against the lightworker this time around.
I was raised n Mitchell County and still have family there. The last time I was in Ashville I thought San Franciso had been teleported to the NC mountains.
Seriously, will Obama win anywhere outside the Research Triangle and the immediate Ashville area?
Doubt it.
People are really hurting here and NC currently has a higher unemployment rate than surrounding states.
The state Democrat party has really made a mess of things at the state level here and it will probably drag the whole ticket downward. I have a hard time believing a majority of my fellow tarheels (state natives, not the basketball team) are going to go for Obama again.
The hardcore democrat voter containment areas are basically going to be Raleigh, Durham, Cary, Chapel Hill – the RTP area.
Can’t say a lot about Ashville as it’s a bit beyond my normal travels so I’ll defer to your observations on that area, though the last time I was there visiting Biltmore it DID strongly resemble Cary in some respects – but my impression is it was confined to the city itself.
Wouldn’t expect Charlotte to go Dem as that’s a major banking town.
Eastern half of the state beyond I-95 is predominantly rural and/or military, as is the south-central and north-central parts of the state. Fayetteville is a big time military town.
I’ll probably be taking a trip over to Greensboro/Winston-Salem area this week and will make note of how much support for each candidate is visible (bumper stickers, yard signs, etc.).
I live in NC and can say that any effort by Obama to try and win here is wasted. He barely edged out the weakest of opponents in ’08 when he claimed to walk on water. No way the dems relive that GOTV apex. The down ticket races will also tilt more heavily GOP.
I’d say Romney wins by 6-8 points here.
LOTS of Romney/Ryan signs (also McCrory and Mark Meadows) springing up all over the place in Brevard, Asheville and Hendersonville.
Are the signs predominantly outside of the urban centers?
My impression of that area is you have your urban transplant types in the heart of the city and then you have your local types and just outside of town types surrounding it, but have no hard data to base that impression on.
Just another observation.
I attended a widely popular parade down at Benson recently called ” Benson Mule Days”.
Basically, it’s a 2 hour long rural oriented parade with a lot of emphasis on equine matters.
Anyway, the only politicians I saw were Republican, and even saw McCrory riding in the parade just ahead of a “conservative” parade float.
The Democrat party was conspicuous by it’s absence.
Also, for what it’s worth, even CNN is now publishing a poll that states Romney is ahead in this state….not that I would give them much credit for accuracy, but they may already be trying to salvage their reputation at this point considering how badly it may go for Obammer next month.