According to data compiled by NBC, the following are the top 10 cities seeing Obama and Romney and related super PAC ad dollars flowing their way.
– Norfolk-Portsmouth (Obama/1500, Romney/1400, Crossroads/730, Priorities/450)
– Roanoke-Lynchburg (Obama/1500, Romney/1500, Crossroads/750)
– Greensboro-High Point (Romney/1400, Obama/1100, Crossroads/780)
– Columbus, OH (Romney/1400, Obama/1000, Crossroads/525, Priorities/365)
– Raleigh-Durham (Obama/1200, Romney/1100, Crossroads/840)
– Richmond-Petersburg (Obama/1100, Romney/1100, Crossroads/340, Priorities/315)
– Cedar Rapids (Obama/1300, Romney/1100, Crossroads/340)
– Charlotte (Romney/1200, Obama/1000, Crossroads/515)
–Cincinnati (Romney/1200, Obama/1000, Crossroads/460)
–Colorado Springs (Obama/1400, Crossroads/630, Priorities/420)
Let’s take a look at the 2008 election results state-by-state.
Let’s mark each Top 10 city with a star in its state. We won’t mark for strict geographic location or for dollar value, but to mark states that contain a Top 10 2012 political ad market, since electoral votes are allocated according to statewide votes.
One pattern immediately jumps out: All of the cities receiving the most ad dollars from the Obama and Romney campaigns and super PACs are in states that Obama won in 2008. Let’s look at the electoral votes implicated in the star pattern: CO 9, IA 6, NC 15, OH 18, and VA 13, total 61 electoral votes. Those 61 EVs are not enough to flip the election to Romney, but Obama won a few states that he is either unlikely to win in 2012, or are in play in 2012 in ways they were not in 2008. Those states include Indiana, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, New Hampshire and Florida, which add up to 76 EVs. Pennsylvania is also in play, with 20 EVs on the line. I don’t see a McCain 2008 state in play for Obama. Then factor in one last fact: Romney and the RNC outraised Obama and the DNC by more than $16 million in May. It’s possible that the money race has flipped permanently in favor of Romney and the RNC.
The message of all this seems to be, Obama isn’t working, but he is being forced to play defense all over the map.
It means we in California will be blessedly spared from the worst of it.
OTOH anybody here on the sensible side of things feels disenfranchised.
Lucky you. We have a hotly contested senate seat (Tester-D) so I expect the robocalls and push polls will require us to let the answering machine answer the phone in October.
Do go to the MSNBC First Read article on this….would you believe that it is titled:
“Still Fighting on GOP Turf”
Because those are states Bush won, you see, and and by golly Chuck Todd wants you to know that 2004 is more relevant than 2008.
Romney needs to beat John Kerry . . . or something.
Your conclusion is consistent with the observations William Kristol published yesterday.
Obama has a broken machine inadequate for the race he is in. Wisconsin behavior and aftermath indicative. Reminds me of scene in movie Miracle where the Russian hockey coach Tikhonov—so used to winning—doesn’t realize he should pull his goalie in the final minutes to gain a one man advantage on offense. U.S. assistant coach says to Herb Brooks, “Why doesn’t he pull his goalie?,” and Brooks studies the guy and says, “He doesn’t know what to do!” Same for Team Obama. Never behind, never on defense, never had trouble getting media to carry their talking points. Now it’s different and they don’t know what to do.
The unemployment in NC is two to three points higher than the nation – at near 11%. The NC democrat party is in turmoil and an unpopular possibly corrupt governor (D) isn’t even trying to run for a second term. Recent polling indicates Obama is underwater in NC. Unless advertising can change the state of the economy, NC will be Romney’s to lose. However, Romney is seen as a NE liberal here, if he treats this state as a flyover state, he can lose it. He needs to stress his economics acumen, and talk about three things here: the economy, the economy, and the economy. Charlotte is a banking capitol, lots of jobs lost in that sector. Textiles, furniture manufacturing and tobacco have declined dramatically, too. A strong economic message about government getting off the back of manufacturers and business will resonate.
(And in Asheville, he might inquire as to why armed agents of EPA showed up at an Asheville man’s door due to an ?email? – government over-reach isn’t popular anywhere, but especially like this.)
Much is made of Obama’s challenger (“Unknown”) taking 20% of the vote in our primary – but Romney didn’t walk away with it either, although technically he was running unopposed. He’s got work to do here.
Wow, neither Tampa-St Pete nor Orlando Florida made the top 10?
Our network TV here is almost unwatchable during the local newscasts: commercials for Obama sucks followed by Romney sucks followed by Obama sucks.
If it wasn’t for the 1-800-GET-AN-AMBULANCECHASER commercials, there’d be Obama/Romney 24/7. The suffering will continue until someone runs out of money (probably Obama).