Congratulations are in order for former Sen. Rick Santorum after last night’s “Santorum Slam,” taking all three contests in Minnesota, Missouri and Colorado.
We should probably take a look first at what this means. Then, I think it’s probably wise to dispel some notions that are floating around that make little sense to me.
1) Is Santorum a real threat to go all the way?
Absolutely. He is probably the best of the “B” teamers that make up this incredibly weak field. He is articulate, and has some political instincts where Romney has near zero. He has less “baggage” than his two main opponents.
2) Can he knock Gingrich off the “not Romney” perch?
Absolutely. In fact, I was surprised it didn’t come in Nevada, but am not the least bit surprised that Gingrich was an also-ran, running about par with Ron Paul for the “most irrelevant” candidate of the evening.
Technically, Santorum didn’t knock Gingrich off the “not Romney” perch, Gingrich flung himself onto the rocks below himself.
3) Is Gingrich done? Put a fork in him? Is this a two man race now?
Yes. And no.
Unfortunately for Santorum, Paul and Gingrich are likely to hang around like a couple of hair krishnas at an airport handing out plastic flowers and waiting for someone to give them something to make them go away.
Ron Paul couldn’t win a state that wasn’t named dementia.
Gingrich has no discipline, no organization, soon to have no money, and he no longer has a receptive audience to his combination spitball fight and diva hissy fit against Romney.
Santorum schooled Gingrich in how to take on Romney. And Gingrich fell off the sled with a thud.
Gingrich is hoping beyond hope that he can last until he smells Southern cooking again.
The Santorum Sweep pushed Gingrich under the rug. Arizona and Maine aren’t going to help Newtrino’s narrative. To be relevant, he’s going to have to go after Santorum, or go away. The latter makes the most sense, which is why it will never cross the Gingrich campaign’s minds.
The Newtonian Implosion is near complete. All he can do now, is be the Santorum spoiler, handing the nomination to Romney on a silver platter.
What does the Santorum Slam NOT mean?
It doesn’t mean he’s a great general election candidate. He’s not.
He’s getting better. He’s the best of a bad lot. It also doesn’t mean that he is likely to win enough delegates before the convention. It doesn’t even mean he is likely to win the next two states, Maine and Arizona. Nor does it mean that he will necessarily finish off the Newtonian Implosion in the south.
Santorum is a flawed candidate, but so is everyone else. His flaws, however, bump up against swing states. The “live and let live” crowd will be turned off completely by a hard core social issues guy.
Book it. It’s an enormous hurdle. May not be fair, may not be right, may not make sense. It’s going to be a problem.
What else does the Santorum slam not mean? It doesn’t mean that the “establishment” disappeared, that there are unicorns and pixie dust extinctions, or that Karl Rove lost his magic wand.
There never was an “establishment” behind the scenes doing something to Gingrich. Santorum proved that. Ed Morrissey and Michele Malkin weren’t “sellouts”. There is no conservative “pravda”.
The Santorum Slam proved that the Newtonian Implosion was self-caused.
Romney still is a horrible candidate. He’s tone deaf. His message is weak, tepid, …really marginal on substance.
He has no connection with the base, or with…well, humans, actually.
A brokered convention is in the cards. If the four horsemen of the apocalypse all stay in for the duration (most likely scenario), nobody is going to have enough to win by August.
Maybe then, the GOP will come to its senses. I sincerely doubt it.
That will leave Romney, who is not capable of articulating a message that defends the free market, much less advances it.
Or Santorum, who has very high hurdles to scale in the swing states which are absolutely necessary to defeat Obama.
The Santorum Slam: He’s the best of what’s there to choose from now. Good for him.
Not sure for the rest of us.
As a constitution-loving American who isn’t so anti-Paul as the media is I beg to differ on some of your comments.
I can live with disagreement.
I can live with a solid critique.
But, until I see some logical argument, backed up by facts or solid persuasion, I’m going to have to stick to my guns.
Ron Paul is not likely to win a single state. He is most certainly not going to win the nomination, unless by some trickery.
I am extremely disturbed by some of the newsletters, I am even more disturbed by (if possible)the protocols of elders stuff, and I am even substantially more disturbed by the suggestion that he confers with white supremacy groups.
Now, maybe all his denials about “I didn’t do it, I didn’t see it, I don’t know anything about it” are worth believing. But the newsletters contain what the newsletters contain. Someone has to come forward and show that the conference calls with fringe nuts didn’t take place…and that hasn’t happened.
As for Gingrich, it appears pretty obvious he has crashed on the rocks.
Romney is frankly, possibly as bad as McCain…who at times looked like a doddering fool to my eyes last year…at carrying the message of the free market and the opposition to small c communism.
And Santorum, is still a “B” teamer, I’m not ready to promote him to the “A” team yet. His wife has toned down his edgy, strident, shrill, unlikeable side. That’s a good thing.
But, he’s got a real hurdle with the “live and let live” folks to scale. For THIS election, we should put that hard core social stuff on the back burner. It’s NOT necessary to win the day, but it could lose the day.
As for being Catholic of the moment, I do NOT buy the notion that he got votes in any significant amount for that. I think he got the “not Romney” bump I was expecting in Nevada, when the Newtonian Implosion shattered into a billion pieces and Newt lost control of all his faculties.
The GOP is on a tightwire right now, losing enthusiasm and momentum to a phony jobs report and a propaganda machine playing up every ounce of in-fighting and every gaffe.
Clint Eastwood said it’s halftime in America. And the GOP has been playing nothing but “B” teamers so far. That’s a bad sign. A very, very bad sign.
I’m praying for a brokered fourth quarter. And possibly a Hail Mary…maybe Santorum is the best one to deliver that after all.
I will likely vote for Santorum in the primary. Not out of love for Santorum, but out of (very slight) hope that the GOP will end up with a brokered convention. I would much rather have Paul Ryan drafted than any of the candidates running now.
Unfortunately for Santorum, Paul and Gingrich are likely to hang around like a couple of hair krishnas at an airport handing out plastic flowers and waiting for someone to give them something to make them go away.
Yes, they often have a lot of hair, but the term you want is probably “hare krishnas”
I think Hairy Krishnas is how they should properly be referred to. Isn’t that what Archie used to call them?
hairy krishnas, hari kari, Harry Carey and all other similar sounding names…it was a typo in the original, which I think got “auto spelled” into a different typo in the editing…and autocorrect simply chose that one for some reason.
That’s for the grammar check, but I already knew how to spell it…now, if you can only type for me, we’ll be in good shape.
One thing Romney can do better than Santorum is win states with significant Mormon populations. We saw it in Nevada, and we’ll see it in Arizona, Wyoming, Idaho, Washington, New Mexico, Hawaii, Montana, Oregon, California, and Alaska.
Without Mormons, Romney would have been crushed in Colorado.
That said, the only swing states with significant numbers of Mormons are Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico. Clearly, it wasn’t enough in Colorado and it won’t be in the general. It may help the Republicans take New Mexico and Nevada in November, but that won’t be of much use if Romney is busy losing in other, bigger swing states.
My solution: Romney in the VP slot.
Santorum is the least unacceptable candidate still running right now, says me. So I’ll delay jumping ship altogether and wait to see how it plays out.
Maybe if somebody besides the ruling class smear merchants had something good to say about Romney, it would be different.
If he can sabotage Santorum, then McMitt will only have one more to knock off.
Wouldn’t it be hilarious to watch Ron Paul beat McRomney in some states before having the 22 inchers pivot toward him.
I’m still trying to choke back the vomit when I think about the prospect of having to (possibly) vote for the greatest smear merchant in American political history. I mean, really, I could probably tolerate someone who has implemented government controlled health care, gun contol, higher taxes and subsized abortions in the only place he ever governed…but having to vote for a person whose only strength appears to be ripping his opponents to shreds…that’s some tough puke to swallow.
newt’s not done by far – fortunately, santorum slowed down the anointing and he’ll continue to slow romney by using newt’s talking points. Soon though – santorum will feel the brunt of romney’s money and he’ll suffer as newt did (won’t blame that on santorum like you did with newt). America’s hope is undeniably a newt presidency – yep he has baggage and so does all of the candidates in one way or another. America was very prosperous while newt was the speaker – keep believing that was a coincidence and you’ll regret not having newt as the nominee for the next 4 years.
Don’t like Santorum, never have. And his social issues bona fides give cover to his less than stellar conservative record elsewhere. I love Dubya and all, but I got no stomach for another big government, “compassionate” conservative.