I have a blog post up at American Thinker that examines that question and, since I am not blessed with the gift of second sight, come to no definitive conclusion.
However, a short list of the challenges facing the US and the world will show there is little cause for optimism:
We are likely to find out rather quickly just how bad 2012 could be. In a couple of weeks, the first of several bond sales by Italy will commence – a total for the first quarter alone of over $115 billion – and there is fear that investors will drive the cost of borrowing beyond what Italy can pay.
Greece, also, is facing an uncertain year as austerity measures begin to make life painful for most of the country.
Either one of those nations could still precipitate a crisis that could push the world economy into a severe recession – or worse.
Then there is the prospect of war with Iran and the unknown consequences that would ensue. There are also unanswered questions about whether the Syrian uprising will spread, what might be the consequences of a Muslim Brotherhood government in Egypt, and the chance that Iraq will disintegrate into sectarian violence again.
What might happen in South America if Hugo Chavez were to die? Can Mexico successfully battle the drug cartels and prevent the violence from increasing in America? And what about China’s economy and the real estate bubble that is just now beginning to burst?
As for America, can Obama survive the worst economy in several generations and win re-election?
The potential for catastrophe is actually greater in 2012 than it was in 2011. Whether world leaders can manage these numerous crises and potential crises and bring us all safely through to celebrate the advent of 2013, or we will continue to muddle through, kicking the can down the road and go into next year no better off – or worse – than we are now.
There is nothing that has happened in the last year that would give us hope that world leaders can do what is necessary to stave off economic disaster — or prevent other catastrophes like Iran building a nuclear weapon. The tough decisions are continuously put off for another day, delaying the inevitable confrontation with disaster. Each time we kick the can down the road, the ultimate solutions become harder to implement. Every failure in this regard makes the pain inflicted that much more difficult to endure.
Is it possible to be optimistic? No doubt the ostrich is feeling pretty good. Other than him, I doubt it.
America will have a total of some 2 1/2 million more legal and illegal aliens in 2012, 90% from the Third World. Since this is the greatest conduit of this country’s problems today, 2012 will definitely be worse.
And there is not the slightest sign of this even being on the table as far as really stopping it. So add as many years as you want and then sit back and watch the first OWS-style shanty towns be assembled in Calif. and occupied with demands for sewer and power and cable TV.
Our response will be to tremble and give in. If OWS and terrorize the center of any major city being small in numbers and almost entirely white, what will happen when a protected Latino group with huge numbers starts in?
They can pretty much do this anytime they want, it just hasn’t occurred to them yet, like the bird so used to being in a cage it never goes through the open door. Once Latinos realize how little law is applied to protected minority groups, it’s anchors aweigh.
I’m highly optimistic about 2012, at least through nov 6.
Can there be any doubt that every resource will be brought to bear to make the economy as good as it can possibly be.
- squirreled away Stick-it-to-us money to increase the GDP leading up to the election
- federal and state-level hiring and more workers driven out of the workforce to manipulate the employment statistics
- great polls showing Americans suddenly optimistic about the future, and beginning to realize that the light worker prevented a catastrophe in 2009 and has the country on the brink of an astonishing revival
- the stock market (this is the important one) feeling the same kind of powerful increase as it felt a powerful drop in 2008. Soros and GS made money on the drop. Now they will make billions on the advance.
- breathtaking publicity for the wonders of Obamacare being implemented in 2012 (no costs, of course, will hit any consumers this year)
- tax breaks showered by the administration on its subjects
- a healthy increase in SS, announced in September. Look for the price of medicare to remain flat, however.
- consumer confidence will be skyrocketing come September
- the price of gas should hit $2.50 per gallon and be sinking in October
- many more terrorist bad guys will be summarilly executed by our ruthless despot in 2012, reinforcing his terror warrior credentials.
Yes, the first 10 months of 2012 will be bright indeed.
“… the price of gas should hit $2.50 per gallon and be sinking in October.”
That is, unless Obama chooses to go to war w/Iran to help his re-election. You know, don’t change horses in midstream.
However, I agree w/your analysis. Another thing that will help the stock mkt is the Fed will probably give us QE3.
If Obama’s base sees him as a warmonger in 2012 after the Iraq pullout in 2011, enough might stay home to be a factor, come 6 November; I don’t see a protest vote of any other kind from socialism’s true believers. Otherwise, I expect it’ll be the year of give aways targeting the private sector, but nothing that can’t be “reappraised” and snatched back—unless you’re a union member—once the vote tally is in.
Seeing Wall St. surge as Western Europe was put on monetary life support suggests too few care.
I’m optomistic overall. Maybe not for 2012 so much, but I think it might be interesting or even fun to watch the Muslim Brotherhood actually try to govern. Radicals are great at stirring the pot. They suck at governing. Yes I include you Mr. President. The mighty Chinese are having problems governing as well. Oddly enough I think the Dollar will hold up well despite many attempts to ruin it. It’s just that all the other currencies (except the Swiss Franc) are in worse shape than ours. I do hope the Sphynx surrvives. I’m more pessimistic on that one.