The latter part of the headline is the real news here. Herman Cain has replaced Michele Bachmann in the top tier of GOP candidates.
Three September debates have shaken-up the race for the Republican presidential nomination. Herman Cain has jumped into the top tier. Rick Perry’s stumbled. Mitt Romneys holding steady.
And Michele Bachmann is hitting bottom. That’s according to a Fox News poll released Wednesday.
The new poll found Cain’s support has nearly tripled among GOP primary voters to 17 percent.
That’s up from 6 percent before this month’s debates, and puts him in what is essentially a three-way tie with Perry and Romney.
Cain has benefited not only from his debate performances, but also significant media attention after winning the Florida Republican Party’s straw poll on Saturday.
Perry now garners 19 percent, a drop of 10 percentage points from a month ago. That puts Romney back in the top spot with the support of 23 percent. Last month Romney was at 22 percent.
Newt Gingrich recovered some ground and now stands at 11 percent. Ron Paul receives the backing of 6 percent now compared to 8 percent before the September debates.
Bachmann registers 3 percent support, down from 8 percent in late August and a high of 15 percent in July.
So it stacks up like this: Romney 24, Perry 19, Cain 17. Cain has clearly benefited from his own debate performances and from Michele Bachmann’s vaccination flameout. She had one great debate performance but followed that up by wandering into the weeds. Cain has been good to great in all of them. Perry has stumbled, while Romney just hasn’t had anything deflect him from his Cylon-like plan.
Cain can also probably thank his lack of a record in office for part of his jump: While both Romney and Perry have had to defend a few things in their records, and those defenses have gotten them both engaged in attacking each other, Cain hasn’t held office and therefore has nothing to defend. His biography is amazing, so he has nothing to defend there either. Unlike the others in the top trio, Cain also hasn’t spent any time attacking fellow Republicans. He has trained all of his fire on President Obama, and that is working for him.
It seems that in the short term, any movement we see will depend on what Perry and Cain do going forward. Romney is what he is and won’t deviate much from his plan. He benefits from the weaknesses and missteps of the others. Cain has gotten voters’ attention again and needs to, first, generate money from all the positive attention he’s getting to keep his campaign alive and then, second, start locking in real support. Perry needs to improve his debate performances, do more of these one-on-ones to get his own message out there in his own words, and redirect so that he is seen firing on Obama again. Lead, and the primary voters are likely to follow.
Yes. Cain’s lack of a record is a boon but will also become a problem. It doesn’t seem to be affecting the PJM commentariat, but it certainly will affect independents who are well aware that they jumped off a cliff with another guy they knew even less about in 2008.
The Cain Bachmann contrast is also interesting. Michele’s bulldog style isn’t wearing well whereas Cain’s Reagan-like good cheer and optimism is wearing very well.
It will be interesting to see if the other candidates decide to go after Cain now. But hey, from reading the comments at PJM, Cain sounds like he is just about perfect, so there probably isn’t a need to go deeper or understand the unintended consequences of 9 9 9, or whether it can appeal to someone besides a dedicated flat taxer. The tens of millions of people paying little or no taxes today certainly won’t mind paying 18% tomorrow, right? They’ll be able to figure out that they will be better off because the great economic mixmaster has shuffled things around and made if possible for their unemployed cousin to get a job. And it won’t bother anybody that Golman Sacks executives will be paying 9% income tax either, just like the clerk at the gas station.
Herman Cain does have an impressive track record, albeit in the private sector. That’s what I like about him–he’s not just another hack politician like Romney, who like GW Bush, comes from a political family and will say anything to get elected. Read Cain’s bio; he is a real American success story.
I agree with your point but I don’t think you got mine.
Cain doesn’t have a track record of political decisions, positions and votes that can be reviewed and picked apart, as all the other candidates have. He only has a relatively brief record of verbal opinions, and since they are verbal, a smart person can “adjust” them later. But there is no way Rick Perry can “adjust” his exectutive order on the vaccine, for example. Advantage Cain. I didn’t say it, but Cain also has the advantage of people wanting him to do well for numerous reasons. He comes from the business world, he is a black man espousing the values of conservatism, and he maintains a good humor. He is more likely to be given a pass than most.
I’m not saying Cain did it deliberately, but in a way he is similar to Obama in 2007, who had deliberately obscured his positions by voting present over and over. Cain never had to vote so he is relatively free to invent himself as he goes. If he is clever, it simply won’t be possible to pin him down and he will maneuver himself to align with the polls.
But that may also become a problem because if he isn’t graceful about it people will begin to wonder who the real Cain is.
If one cannot tell the difference between a successful corporate businessman and a frikkin’ community organizer (rabble rouser), one should be more humble.
Corporate politics are much nastier than Washington’s. If you eff up, you get canned. If you try to hide, likewise. In DC, effing up and hiding are their whole life. I think I’d like to try someone who’s not steeped in BS, but who understands exactly where and how the rubber meets the road.
Remember, he’s really the only one who ever created a job. Romney “turned around” companies by butchering them. Perry lured companies to Texas using taxpayers’ money, a pernicious practice that must be stopped. Governments don’t give those tax breaks: we do. Our bills are higher because we feel we must lure them in. Why not just stop being bad? Then people will move there on their own.
If Herman can bring Washington 30% toward reality, we just might survive. If not, invest in lead. Wrapped in copper. With cordite stuffed inside.
” And it won’t bother anybody that Golman Sacks executives will be paying 9% income tax either, just like the clerk at the gas station.”
Progressive taxation = social engineering, class warfare, and punishing success.
What bothers me is this insane notion that if you earn more, you somehow owe more to the world around you, as if you’ve done something wrong.
Unfortunately, the world didn’t develop as you would have wished.
Here is what the country will learn about Cain’s “Soak the Poor” tax plan, as it will be known, if he gets nominated:
- everyone will pay at least 18% of their income, 9% in federal tax and 9% in sales tax. Even the poorest who pay nothing today and still stuggle to exist.
- Herman Cain’s and Goldman Sach’s taxes will be reduced from about 25% today to 9% because they won’t buy anything outside of their businesses.
(ps: doesn’t matter that those are not exactly true. That’s what people will know, because explaining the benefits of the plan takes hours and leaps of faith, not minutes and intuitive sound bites).
He won’t get 30% of the vote in a general election.
And that doesn’t even scratch the surface of the real problem, which is that his plan would be the most disruptive thing to happen to Americal life since WWII.
The mere fact that he chooses to focus on taxes instead of government spending is a disqualifier for many reasons.
a) it’s a losing poposition,
b) taxes aren’t the problem: government spending is,
c) the plan has zero chance of being approved, and
d) it reinforces the stereotype of fat cat Republicans.
It’s a stunningly stupid proposition.
Looking that candidates and their performance to date, who would you’ve wanted to ascend to the top tier, other than Mr. Cain? He is a favorite among almost all grassroots conservatives, because he expresses their hopes and fears for their country more forcefully and emotionally than they can themselves or than any other declared candidate. He is the “heart” in this campaign.
Perry has definitely faded, but notice that Romney has not advanced. Perry’s loss doesn’t translate into Romney’s gain. This is the second confirmation of this phenom; the first was the Florida straw poll. Where does Romney gather support above 25%?
The earlier posted interview with Perry shows him in much better light than the debate format. I agree with Bryan: he should make as many of these appearances as possible over the next few weeks. I guaranty you these interviews will help him hone and rehearse his answers to the same questions he’ll face in the debates.
Ahh, I love the primary season. More exciting than the postseason in the sport of your choice.
All the prognostications, the daily scoreboarding (where one isn’t sure whether the scores are true or biased), the fans of different teams bad-mouthing the fans of other teams…
And somehow at the end of it, we have what’s supposed to be the best candidate, just like at the end of the postseason we have what’s supposed to be the best team.
I like Herman Cain, he talks sense and he has a proven record of achievement – and, while not a reason to vote for him, his African heritage would give folks on the left a lot to think about.
His views on taxation appeal to me, as well, although I agree that they could be a hard sell politically. He is a man who knows how business works, and who knows that it is only business that provides the wealth to implement all the spending programmes that voters usually focus on.
That said, as a foreign observer (I’m Australian), I was very concerned about some comments which he made about the Israel / Palestinian issue. He was clearly quite ignorant about the facts, he was shown up for it and he came back soon afterwards and explained that he had since been briefed on the situation. That would be fine if he was talking about something obscure, like the border dispute between Thailand and Cambodia (not obscure if you’re from SE Asia, of course! You know what I mean), but it is downright dangerous when it’s about a central plank of US foreign policy.
I’m not overly enamoured with Obama’s performance in this regard, but at least he is interested in the situation. We can work with that. For a man to be seeking the most powerful office in the world, I would expect that international issues would be at least of interest, notwithstanding the urgent domestic problems at the moment. The ME situation is not an add on!
That said, he’s an engaging person with a great story. I certainly rate him a lot higher than some of the other talent on offer.
Bryan, two excellent points:
“Cain also hasn’t spent any time attacking fellow Republicans. He has trained all of his fire on President Obama, and that is working for him.”
“Lead, and the primary voters are likely to follow.”
Personally, I love Cain’s story, like his style overall and particularly appreciate his hands-on business experience. He simply doesn’t seem sufficiently seasoned to step into the DC-WH cesspool.
Anon, above is me. Hit submit too fast.
One last comment: This still appears to be Perry’s race to lose. Cain is forcing the top contenders to bring their A-game, but Mitt can’t seem to gain enough traction to move past 24-25%.
I would very much like to see Herman Cain replace our current U.S. Tax Code with something rational.
His 9-9-9 plan sounds much, much better than our current 11,000-plus pages of concessions to special interest groups. That change alone could revolutionize the U.S. economy.
Romney got 23%, not 24.