The Public Policy Polling surveys affiliated with Markos Moulitsas’ Daily Kos web site have established a track record for off-year accuracy in recent months. They were eerily right about the race to succeed Jane Harman in my own district. (CA-36). They were right in the Wisconsin recall elections. So I’ve been eagerly awaiting their poll for the vacant Weiner seat, NY-9. Now we have some indication as to which way it will go, in the form of twitters from PPP’s Tom Jensen, including this one:
My pretty straight forward take on the first night of our NY-9 poll: Dems in BIG trouble. It deserves the caps.
How BAD (that also deserves the three caps) are things for the Dems in NY-9? One, they’re said to be pouring nearly $500,000 in ads from the DCCC into that race, which thanks to Anthony Weiner’s ouster, is happening Tuesday. The Democrat, Weprin, ran an ad that got pulled in a nanosecond for insensitivity — it showed aircraft buzzing the New York skyline. At any point since 9-11 that’s going to raise eyebrows, but the week prior to the 10th anniversary? Oy.
Donald Trump is stumping for Republican Bob Turner. President Obama can’t go anywhere near stumping for the Democrat, since the campaign has become a race to see who can run the farthest away from the president the fastest. The New York Daily News, which usually endorses Democrats, has endorsed Turner to send a message to Obama. Citing President Obama’s open hostility to Israel among several issues, former NY Mayor Ed Koch has also crossed party lines and endorsed Turner.
The most recent polls still had Weprin leading, but the momentum is all toward Turner now. And Kos, according to Kaus, is pushing the panic button.
I recall back in the fall of 2009, the DNC held its winter meeting in Austin, TX and then chairman Tim Kaine declared that the Democrats were on offense even in the red states. It was ludicrous at the time, but now that they’re scrambling to defend NY-9…?
Update: Oh my.
For Democrats who hadn’t already started to panic over Tuesday’s special election in New York’s Brooklyn- and Queens-based 9th Congressional district, now would be a good time to start.
Republican Bob Turner led Democrat David Weprin by 6 points in the nonpartisan Siena College poll released this morning.
The nonpartisan survey conducted Tuesday through late Thursday found 50 percent of those polled would vote for Turner if the election were held “today” while 44 percent would vote for Weprin. Six percent of the 886 likely voters polled said they were undecided.
The numbers have flipped from a Siena poll a month ago, when Weprin had a 6-point lead.
(h/t Hot Air headlines)