Gadhafi is now fighting a war on five fronts. I’m aware that The Washington Institute describes the situation as a two-front war with the western front having several “compartments.” Over the last ten days the situation has clarified. In a column I wrote this past Tuesday I suggested Gadhafi now has five fronts. Cyrenaica (eastern Libya), the Nafusa Mountains (Berber region south of Tripoli) and Misurata (besieged western city) are the most active. Misurata could be described as a compartment but it is so vital and requires so many resources on Gadhafi’s part that you can make a case it is (at the moment) Gadhafi’s main effort. In March, Gadhafi suppressed uprisings in the western cities of Zuwara and Zawiya (near the coast, between Tripoli and the Tunisian border). However, opposition simmers in the region. He must assign police and garrison forces to watch the region. So that’s four ground fronts that require attention. He must divide his forces.
Gadhafi’s fifth front is the NATO/coalition air front. Is it a front ? NATO airpower smashed his air force. In the column I wrote Tuesday I noted that the addition of Hellfire missile-armed Predators puts increased psychological pressure on Gadhafi and his senior henchmen. With Predators lurking he’ll now have to think twice before he tools around Tripoli in a convertible posturing for television cameras. He did that a couple of weeks ago, to show the world he’s macho. As my column notes, Great Britain’s defense secretary openly discussed striking command and control centers. I report, you decide: Does Gadhafi’s convertible would qualify as a command and control center? Colonel Gadhafi seems to think so. His propagandists accused NATO of planning an assassination.
Back to the ground fronts: Today news broke that Tunisian forces have detained pro-Gadhafi fighters who crossed the Tunisia-Libya border while pursuing Libyan rebels.
The lede from the BBC report:
Tunisian TV said Libyan forces in about 15 vehicles entered the town of Dahiba before being overpowered by Tunisian troops and surrendering their weapons.
There has been fighting between Libya leader Col Muammar Gaddafi’s forces and rebels over a nearby border post.
Tunisia has strongly condemned the violation of its territory.
Gadhafi knows his western backdoor is not locked.
The Washington Institute article (linked in this post’s second sentence) argues that the Libyan civil war is not a stalemate (since Gadhafi’s forces have adapted to NATO’s air tactics) and that Gadhafi is poised to win an extended war because he has the will to endure and the will to win. I think the analysis is quite reasonable. The distracted, confusing, and often feckless NATO/coalition leadership is a bad sign for the long term. The Libyan rebels have great passion, but their fractiousness is a weakness (though one that might diminish over time).
That said, consider the evovling situation from Gadhafi’s perspective. War on four or five fronts is difficult. The bitter attacks by Gadhafi forces on the Wazin (Libya)-Dehiba (Tunisia) border crossing indicate Gadhafi understands his southern Berber front presents an enormous threat. I’ll add a brief historical note, one that the Libyans are certainly aware of: Ottoman Turkey kept its western forces supplied through Dehiba, Tunisia during the Turco-Italian War of 1911-1912. The Turks even had a telegraph link in Dehiba so their forces (in the Tripolitanian desert) could communicate with Constantinople. The 21st century war in Libya differs, but the Dehiba crossing remains immensely valuable. Gadhafi knows Tunisia’s revolutionary government is not his friend.
Gadhafi said late last week that his forces would pullback from Misurata. They did, then they started shelling the city. Gadhafi also said tribespeople would start to attack the rebels in Misurata. This may well be an attempt to exploit a weakness in UN Security Council Resolution 1973. Gadhafi will portray the tribespeople as “civilians” — so that NATO and coalition aircraft can’t attack them.
The multi-war actually gives the Libyan rebels and NATO an operational opportunity to deal Gadhafi several defeats (defeats in detail) and gain time to train rebel forces in Cyrenaica (eastern Libya). However, NATO and its coalition allies must have the courage and insight to seize this opportunity before it fades. NATO aircraft have begun supporting the Berbers in the south. The moment to deploy special operations troops and USAF AC-130 gunships to help secure the Wazin crossing is now. The Tunisian Army is deployed on the Tunisian side of the border as a blocking force. Take advantage of it. The moment to provide the rebels in Misurata with AC-130 gunship support was two weeks ago, but it isn’t too late. Yes, it will take special ops personnel on the ground to maximize the effectiveness of air support, and special ops guys usually wear boots. Obama said no boots on the ground. He also said Gadhafi must go. No Boots or Must Go?
I’m for putting a few boots on the ground if it can end this conflict soon. Gaddafi is a bad man.
At the very least lets give these rebels some guns. I got the feeling if they get the weapons they would clean this mess up themselves.
The rebels may have to go on the defensive and just hold out until 1/1/13. Our new president should take about 30 days to wrap it up.
Too many people have forgotten that Qadhdhffy, while being an evil clown, is also a trained military officer. He bought time and then counterattacked his foes when they overextended themselves, nearly winning in the first few weeks. Only the intervention of the NATO air forces prevented that. He is surrounded by enemies, but he has the central position. He can fight them in detail, turning against them one at a time, while it is harder for them to coordinate against him (and that is not even taking account of the disunity among the rebels). His troops are adapting to the threats from the air, and are better fighters than most of the rebels (not that they all that great). He is by no means on the ropes yet.
I have thought, since this fracas started, that if the Western powers want Qadhdhaffy gone they will have to commit troops on the ground to do it. A brigade of Gurkhas or other British troops, supported by a tank regiment (=battalion) would do the job I think, provided budget cuts in the UK don’t deprive them of ammunition supplies (the British air units are already running out of modern bombs). A Marine Expeditionary Unit and a brigade of Army from the US would also do the job, or the equivalent from France. That is what it would take if a serious strategy was in force, but it isn’t. Obama and the three witches (Hillary, Samantha Powers, and Susan Rice), who more or less designed and pushed this imbroglio as a humanitarian intervention, did not foresee the consequences or provide the means for their desired outcome of Qadhdhaffy’s ouster.
Nor did they consider what might come after him. After him there might be an Al-Qaida dictatorship. Alternatively the country might break down into lawless chaos, like Somailia did after Siad Barre was removed, and as it remains. A pirate state just over the horizon from the EU, now that is a pleasant prospect, isn’t it? Something Obama, the three witches, Sarko, and Cameron did not consider when they so blithely thought the rebels were winning.
I am sympathetic to the rebels in the various Arab coutnries, courageously trying to oust the autocrats and tyrants that misgovern them. But I do not think the results are likely to be beneficial from a US point of view, being likely to result in either an Islamist dictatorship, another army-backed dictator, or total chaos, none of which are desireable from our POV. These results will not be beneficial from the POV of the inhabitants of those countries, either. If they could find a path to consensual government I would cheer them, but that is the least likely result. And yet these revolts would have come eventually. The longer before they came, the less the US encouraged autocrats like Mubarak to liberalize, the more likely the revolts would be Islamist. I can only hope I will be shown to be too pessimistic, because it is likely that if I’m not, these rebellions are the preludes to a huge war, which the Bush strategy attempted to prevent by trying to catalyze the reform and modernization of Arab political culture.
We do not need boots on the ground- at least not anymore than is necessary to coordinate strikes with the opposition.
Libya is probably the most screwed nation for its size in defensible geography. The reason the battles between the rebels and Pro Gaddafi forces in the middle have been so wide ranging is because there is NOTHING conducive to mounting a defense of gains or holding territory in that region- Germany and the Brits battled back and forth over this turf repeatedly in WWII.
We have the planes, we aren’t using them- Serbia got more attention in the 90′s when we hit them. We have the fleet, we aren’t using it- park them off Misurata and Tripoli. We haven’t.
We are fighting this conflict half assed, with no clear objective. Libya is a country with nearly no key defensible terrain and a small population that is overwhelmingly settled along the coast.
This should be over already, we aren’t really fighting. A couple bombing runs every few days does not win wars.
Today, Obama killed Qaddafi’s youngest son and three grandsons, but not Qaddafi. This is like killing a bunch of Michael Corleone’s family, but not Michael. None of the reporting I’ve seen thus far even mentions what a disaster this is, and how perilous things will be until Qaddafi is dead.