March 16, 2011 - 7:47 am
Charlie Martin said it here first: “The frustrating part about writing on this stuff is that people don’t seem to have any middle setting between ‘everything is fine’ and ‘run in circles scream and shout’. So saying ‘no, it’s not Chernobyl’ is interpreted as ‘it’s nothing.’ So let’s go ahead and make this clear: no, it’s still not Chernobyl. But no, it’s not nothing.”
Bill Whittle, Scott Ott and Stephen Green reveal the “dangerous” levels of radiation that people are exposed to every single day. They also discuss the “harmful” levels of media hysteria.
Clearly, they’re going bananas.
Among scientists, engineers, and mathematicians, a well-respected textbook (presently in its third edition) is Trevor A. Kletz’ Learning from Accidents … excerpts of this book can be seen on Google Books.
It is perfectly clear that in the fourth edition of Learning from Accidents, the chapters on Bhopal, Three-Mile Island, and Chernobyl, will be followed by a chapter on TEPCO/Fukushima.
Which of these four historic accidents was worst? Professional textbooks like Learning from Accidents are not much concerned with that.
Were the same mistakes repeated at Bhopal, Three-Mile Island, Chernobyl, and now at the TEPCO/Fukushima reactors? Professional textbooks like Learning from Accidents are *VERY* concerned with *THAT*.
Already we see that the answer is simply: “Yes, the same mistakes were repeated.”
That is why—in the sense that matters most to systems engineers—the TEPCO/Fukushima disaster most definitely *IS* another Chernobyl.
As systems engineers are fond of asking: “If we don’t learn from our mistakes, why bother making them?”
TMI was a non-event. Nobody was killed. Nobody was injured. Radioactive release was trivial. I agree that it was a valuable case study to learn from, but that’s all it was.
This OTOH, may yield little in the way of light on the subject of disaster studies: the cause is bleeding obvious. You have a plant that ran safely for 40 years, and then a force majeure kicks its testicles off in a 1-2 punch that nobody foresaw. There’s not much doubt about what caused this one.
The response may or may not have been handled well. This will come out in the coming months. But there’s no mystery about the cause.
“The Media is Melting Down”
Big loss.
A Physicist – I’m sure you mentioned it, but where did you get your PhD in physics again?
A couple of points.
1. There won’t be any nuclear ‘explosion’ generated by a chain reaction. Nuclear explosives are based upon fast neutron processes. The reactant will vaporize long before it can ‘explode.’
2. The safety systems worked and the reactors are shut down. The problem is one of contamination resulting from an inability to cool the fuel rods enough to keep them from melting. They get activated with pumped radioisotopes during the reaction and typically have to be cooled under water for three years after having been removed from the reactor. Otherwise, they melt. This is not a good outcome.
3. It looks like we have a containment breach. If the fuel melts and vaporizes, then you have a big-time contamination problem. It is exacerbated by lack of emergency electrical power. They need to cool the fuel and control the contamination.
4. People are protected from radiation by the one-over-r-squared law. They need to stay away from areas contaminated by radioisotopes. Some mass between you and the source helps a lot as well.
5. People need to protect their respiratory and digestive systems from internal contamination. Wear a mask if exposed.
6. So far, there is no danger in the US from any of this. Remember, in 1954 we blew up Bikini Atoll in an open air thermonuclear test. Distance protects against radiation, passage over vast areas of ocean eliminates contaminants.
7. Don’t start taking potassium iodide unless you are actually going to be exposed. It can be nasty stuff.
8. We monitor radiation levels here constantly, and authorities will advise if there is anything dangerous going on here in the US in plenty of time to protect yourself.
9. You are presently sitting in the cosmic ray background, so you are irradiated every day. If you fly, you get a higher dose. Every time you get a medical x-ray you get irradiated. Radiation, in small doses, won’t cause you any immediate harm.
10. Hope the press find some better subjects to interview.
11. Get a grip, please.
(My PhD in experimental physics is from UCB, Baccalaurate from MIT, I took Dr. Teller’s graduate course in nuclear physics at Berkeley in 1969).
1. spent fuel rods may fizzle.
4. shitload of good “one-over-r-squared law” will do for you if the wind is in your direction.
6. is there a jetstream from bikini atoll to usa west coast? apple and oranges.
8. but will they have enough time to distribute potassium iodide tablets? how many people will die from poisoning due to ignorance and drinking iodine tincture? huh?
agree with the rest of your points.