Iran’s ‘Rational’ Suicide
JCS Chairman Gen. Martin Dempsey must have a big mind, if we accept Emerson’s dictum that consistency is the hobgoblin of little ones. Yesterday he “addressed remarks he made in a CNN interview in which he referred to the Iranian government as a ‘rational actor’ and said an attack by Israel on Iran would be ‘destabilizing’ and ‘not prudent,’” reports Jeremy Herb at The Hill:
The chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff told a Senate panel on Tuesday he did not counsel Israel against attacking Iran over its nuclear program. Gen. Martin Dempsey told lawmakers on the Senate Budget Committee, “We’ve had a conversation with them about time, the issue of time.”
Dempsey also defended his comment that Iran is a “rational actor.” Dempsey said that he doesn’t mistake Iran’s rhetoric for a lack of reason, and said that even Iran’s actions that are unacceptable to the U.S. fit the country’s pattern over the past 30 years. “We can’t afford to underestimate our potential adversaries by writing them off as irrational,” Dempsey said.
Please, Gen. Dempsey: read my book How Civilizations Die (and Why Islam Is Dying, Too). How can you tell if a person, or a country, is a “rational actor,” or not? Here’s a simple one: What is the rational self-interest of a bank robber with terminal brain cancer and no living relations? If such an individual takes hostages, you tell the police snipers to take their best shot. Iran is the national equivalent of a criminal with a tumor: it has the fastest rate of fertility decline recorded in world history. The table below comes from the UN Population Prospects website:
Iran (Islamic Republic of)
Total fertility (children per woman)
Medium variant
1950-2020
| Period | Total fertility |
|---|---|
| 1950-1955 | 6.93 |
| 1955-1960 | 6.93 |
| 1960-1965 | 6.93 |
| 1965-1970 | 6.70 |
| 1970-1975 | 6.24 |
| 1975-1980 | 6.27 |
| 1980-1985 | 6.54 |
| 1985-1990 | 5.62 |
| 1990-1995 | 3.95 |
| 1995-2000 | 2.62 |
| 2000-2005 | 1.96 |
| 2005-2010 | 1.77 |
| 2010-2015 | 1.59 |
| 2015-2020 | 1.45 |
Iranian women bore 7 children in 1970, and an average of 1.5 today, the same as Europe. In the UN’s “low variant” forecast, fertility will fall to just 1 child per female.





“How can you tell if a person, or a country, is a “rational actor,” or not?”
Given the actor’s goals, if he choses means that are the most effective in achieving them, then that actor is rational. Whether the “goals” are desirable or not has nothing to do with thew rationality of the actor. For instance a Hindu who is dying of starvation in the midst of a herd of cattle is perfectly rational. Tastes, preferences, goals of an actor is irrelevant to his rationality. The ends of an action could be anything; what matters is whether the means chosen are the most appropriate. General Demsey is stating that there is evidence that Iran in fact engages in rational calculi. Therefore, she is open to diplomacy of incentives and threats.
Hmmm, yes; e.g. this “bank robber” isn’t going to die in a period of months, but years. So it would be irrational for them to nuke several US cities as soon as they could (assume for this argument that’s in a very few years) and afterwords not to expect to die in a matter of days (but see below).
They might gamble on the current POTUS, whoever he is, not have what it takes to retaliate in such a fashion, which would include the American people, and what’s left of the ruling class, not replacing him with someone who would, which I suspect they would view as being more likely that it actually would be.
I guess my point is that the bank robber analogy is an extremely useful starting point that needs careful application. With a greater knowledge of history than mine; aren’t there societies that when faced with such pressures decided to aggressively “commit suicide” in the short term instead of trying to hold out to the bitter end, giving up, whatever? I’m ignoring for now what I’ve heard about (a subset?) of Twelvers that are reported to believe that creating chaos on earth will hasten the return of the Twelfth Imam, a “saving throw” gambit that those of us who don’t believe this might view as “irrational”.
My money is on it going down like this:
Irans plan is to nuke Israel the second they have TWO viable weapons, under whatever pretext they need to invent. They actually HOPE Israel will try a pre-emptive strike, so they can claim self defense/revenge later. They’re betting on shock value, betting The West will just chicken out.
And that’s not far too fetched…listen for shouts of “Everybody just calm down now, hold on a minute!” to come screaming from every Constipated Suit in every Paralyzed Western Capital on Earth when that Mushroom Cloud finally goes up over Tel Aviv. Israel will not function well enough to retaliate overwhelmingly and most important, IMMEDIATELY, like within that very first half-hour, so….
There will be desperate denial theories floated by The Cowardly West as excuses to avoid a larger fight..”dont rush to blame Iran, what if it was Al Qaeda? Maybe with a lost Soviet suitcase nuke? Fer chrissake HAMAS just claimed responsibility!…How can you kill millions of civilians in Iran on mere SUSPICION!”
Every SECOND of delay is crucial. Delay will embolden others to make deals and alliances…two, three hours, half a day is all it takes…Israel, weakened and harangued by The West to “restrain itself” and “my god, think of the CHILDREN!” will not be able to IMMEDIATELY DESTROY BOTH IRAN AND PAKISTAN’S REMAINING NUCLEAR ARSENAL without “unacceptable” casualties among “innocent civilians” so we will have effectively throw them under the bus with our misplaced “humanity”, while Iran has Pakistans nukes to provide protection.
ALL will then bow to Iran for having the BALLS to finally do what they all swore was their mission in life. The Biggest Jew Killer ever will become overnight de-facto leader of the region, demanding respect and full subservience of the rest because its the law of the jungle, just like in prison. “Yeah, I did that, you want some? Give me your stuff, bitch”
We’ll have in a matter of hours, a devastated, severely weakened Israel, and a euphoric and united Islamic world willing to use more nukes, with a Constipated West, wringing its hands wishing it would all just go away.
Who’s gonna send their troops to a radioactive zone to “secure” Israels boarders against the millions Islamic “Radiation Martyrs” pouring in from all sides to “occupy all of Palestine” from Jordan to the sea? Who’s gonna nuke a few million MORE civilians, as a matter of principal or revenge?, Who’s gonna risk attacks on their civilians, on behalf of “the damned JOOOOS” who are mostly wiped out or fleeing for good anyway?
Nobody, thats who.
The West will talk, talk, talk, while Israel (whats left of her) is invaded by an endless swarm of ants, and picked apart until she’s gone. One big boom to get the ball rolling, maybe a year or two finish.
That second one, and Pakistan, are their ace(s) in the hole.
Thats their plan.
What would Islam, any side, do without their whipping boy?
Sure, they attack each other, but only in packs, and only to eliminate excess males. They rarely if ever intend to win. Since Islam’s only industry is force-breeding soldiers (and letting the slaves do everything else), they wouldn’t have anythng to do if somebody actually WON something. They just pass bits of land back and forth. ‘Gimme that!’ -’No, gimme that back!’
It’s hard to understand the tactics of a paranoid cowards, let me explain simply:
Two Muslim toughs are on either side of the street.
To show the other guy how ruthless he is, one of them goes and knocks down a little old lady.
The other guy has to impress him back- he’s not scared!
So he goes and KICKS her. That’ll show him!
It’s just braggodacio and jizya.
Players like Pakistan and Iran are just displaying so somebody will placate them with money… which they then share with terrorist expendables.
Gotta keep the ball rolling. I call it ‘milk and bilk’.
I just think Netanyahu has learned to talk the talk.
He knows how the game is played. Israel won’t do much because of Israeli socialists. Iran- I think they’re just making noise to get money to run.
A setback wouldn’t shut ‘em up til the regime gets harshed.
Snipers sounds very good to me. Pre-emptive elections, Islamic style.
If only they didn’t have so many secret supporters in the US whose jobs depend on this endless noise. India can take care of Pakistan… except they’ve got supporters too (including China).
Let’s get the Americans running interference out of the way!
Problem is, Muzzies are everywhere…
Blast Israel and wait to see the “celebrations” explode world wide…like when the Bulls or Lakers win, and they burn the town? Yeah, that, but on a global scale.
Just like the urban rioters we constantly appologise for, and try to “understand the root cause”, Muslims will hold us hostage world-wide, demanding more land, more concessions more “autonomy” and “respect” because after all, its OUR fault they do what they do, right?
Israel smoldering and radio active, and Muslims with more nukes and the will to keep using them? A huge country OUTSIDE the middle east (Indonesia) suddenly allied with Iran? Threatening global trade/war in THAT region as well? Egypt over running Israel, and Indonesia threatening reprisals if we get involved? Its a global game-changer.
Once that first knockout punch is thrown at Israel, we WILL backpedal and reel to “control” and “prevent” more violence.
And like Gun Control in the suburbs to combat crime in the cities, we will do what comfortable, soft, educated liberals ALWAYS do in the face a real physical threat…we will concede to their demands “to avoid trouble” and hope that our concessions are seen as “gestures” of our desire to “all get along”.
“just give him what he wants, honey, dont get him angry”
They have us made. All it takes is one punch, and the spontaneous Flash Mob rules the city. Cops cant stop it, they just let it run its course.
But this time, it will be global.
So a choice of irrational goals, followed by a rational pursuit of those irrational goals, is rational. Does not compute. To use one’s rational facilities to pursue a clearly irrational goal is irrational.
I think you confuse irrationality with illogic. One can use a false premise logically; though the result will be false, the logic can be impeccable.
There is a discipline called “Decision Making.” It is a part and parcel of Economics. The most basic assumption about decision makers in any environment is that they are “rational”, i.e., they employ the most effective means to achieve their goals whatever they might be. “Means rationality” is invariant to time and space; it is a human “capacity” to process information.
How norms evolve in societies is a subject of sociology and religion. Human beings either as indiviuals or in groups may strive to behave according to these norms. A rational behavior in that case is normative; i.e., the actor has internalized the norms and conforms to them. An irrational actor on the other hand acts against the accepted norms.
Note that the evolution of norms is a long term process so that in a decision making situation it can be taken as given. You can not create incentives to change goals. What are the incentives for the Iranian mullahs to adopt liberal democratic goals, none. But there are incentive, political and economic that change the means that are available to Iran so that they can be manipulated. Iranian decion makers are rational in that they can compute what is in their best interest given their circumsctances.
Your calculus is correct if, and only if, it takes into account what those goals are.
In Iran’s case, the goals include the destruction of America and dying gloriously in the process.
General Dempsey, and this administration in general, seem to have overlooked those two minor details.
A quibble on one point:
Isn’t this because the current regime just isn’t able to “play well with others”? I.e. work with outsiders, particularly non-Muslim firms that have the technology and techniques to extract a lot more oil, both from existing fields and to find and exploit new ones. (Due to the fraking revolution they missed their window on natural gas, which is just as well.) I seem to remember reading accounts of multiple projects that never got far enough.
Of course, this doesn’t make any difference unless the regime is replaced with a more … rational one, and in the not so short term it would have to square the circle of an accommodation of Islam with the modern world, else it would likely act in a similar manner (e.g. obtain nukes, even if it wasn’t as aggressive).
I understand that the oil industry is high maintenance, Iran and Valenzuela both have neglected necessary maintenance and consequently are suffering decreasing oil production in excess of depletion. Let me rephrase that, they aren’t keeping up their oil infrastructure, so their oil production is declining faster than depletion explains. They’re not running out of oil so much as their production system is falling apart.
With one dollar , official rate exchange , i filled the tank this morning in Venezuela.10 gallons.I was in line for five minutes becasues smugglers are filling their three tanks while the national guard is watching to prevent them from doing that. The oil is being smuggled to Colombia while been subsidized by the goverment.
20 k people were fired from the industry and prevented from working even in the private sector. Chevron and Shell under pressure of the goverment refused them jobs. So those not good enough to have a job previously are in the enterprise now.they have now 120 k workers to import food not produce oil.
Two weeks ago there was a spill , they needeed days to even acknowledge the accident , of course they says there is a sabotage.
So corrupt , incopetent managment.
Unskilled workers
and a collosal subsidy to internal comsuption have the state run company broke
Wow, thanks, jkl. So hard to get news in English. I had no idea it was like that- we just get glowing reports on ‘how strong Chavez might be in the upcoming elections.’
Any local news on Hizbollah military aides in Venezuela?
Are American Democrats still vistiting FARC?
The demographic collapse in Iran is really interesting because I would think after the Iranian Revolution where women appeared to be kicked out of many professions and forced to the “barefoot and pregnant” life fertility would be kept up. But obviously something is going on. Perhaps:
a: “Plight” of women in Iran is not as oppressive as reported in the West
b: Rapid increase in urbanization
c: Have women gone on “strike” against the regime by delaying marriage and not having children?
As usual an answer to this question is found in our host’s latest relevant book, How Civilizations Die: (And Why Islam Is Dying Too); a couple of relevant quotes from page 11:
After referencing and quoting a bit of a 2008 study of Iran:
There is of course much, much more to the story; as the Instapundit says, “Read the whole thing.”
Grrrr, I do wish the PJMedia blogs had a preview feature; there’s quite a bit of text between the two blockquoted sections above which I failed to indicate with a [...] paragraph.
if I didn’t personally know people who escaped from Iran aftgher the fall of the Shah (thanks Jimmy Carter) I might agree with you. My friend was only 6 when she escaped and was the only one who speak English. Her family was placed in prison in Turkey and then they let the family go to England but her father was still imprisoned. She said after the fall of the Shah EVERY woman and girl had to wear the veils (I don’t know what you call them). when I was a kid the first thing we did in class was recite the pledge of allegience. In Iran, the children had to stand up and face the west with a raised fist and exclaim “Death to America”. She didn’t even know what America was. So if you think the woman in Iran are not badly treated you are mistaken. Even here in America we are in danger of the Taliban and other Muslims. I am a Christian and refuse to concede that Islam is the religion of peace. IMHO
An Iranian demographer that I heard speak in the late 1980s said that immediately following the end of the Iran-Iraq war young Persian women seeing that jobs were scarce decided quite rationally to deliver the two children that they desired as soon as possible and then bear no more. This led to the spurt of births immediately following the war.
The current Iranian desire for small families was set during the reign of the Shah. The illiterate maid in my Iranian family had seven children by the time she was 30 years old in 1964. Her children all graduated from high school and none of them have more than two children.
This is very interesting, but not a sufficient explanation for self-annihilation by nuclear war. In a despotic theocracy where women are mere chattel, the leaders could simply order women to bare no fewer than 3 children. They could make it a religious requirement. Why haven’t they? (Note that an attitude of belligerance is a sure way to rapidly reduce one’s youth population even more, since fighters are invariably young men.)
The hastening of the 12th imam’s coming is perhaps the answer. The theocrats believe the end is near, they are glad of this, and they want to go out with a … er, bang.
Thoughts?
After the Iran Iraq war the leadership calculated that they would be overpopulated so they started a massive campaign with religious approval, of “two is enough”. They flooded the country with contraceptives and financial disincentives if you had more than two kids.
It seemed to have worked too well. The government and religious authorities have tried to reverse the policy but the rates are still trending down. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Family_planning_in_Iran
Maybe they shouldn’t have gibbeted (strangled) 100,000 little girls in 1980.
As many or more since, probably. The Islamic version of post-natal abortion?
We are too far from the Iranian experience to appreciate why women are not having children. But I can fantasize. I recall that Iran used its children for cannon fodder during the Iran-Iraq war, having the children clear minefields with their little martyr bodies before sending soldiers across them. It may be that women would choose not to bring children into a world where men could do this to women, i.e., to break their hearts. Iranian women are strong-minded, somewhat different than their Arab counterparts. They may have come to the conclusion – not irrationally – that until women can count on preserving their offspring from all manner of danger, they will not put in the effort necessary to raise children. I feel strongly that at present the greatest dangers facing Iranian children are politically motivated Iranian males. I also sense that Iranian males are more family oriented (in the old Western sense) than their Arab counterparts. It may be that non-political Iranian males do not wish to coerce their spouses into procreating, since they agree with their wives opinions – again, more readily than Arab males.
Interesting. Women as rational actors- greatly overlooked.
Other factors:
Is it true that nearly 50% of Iranian women must resort to prostitution, like in Cuba? Does that mean somebody is quietly distributing the Pill, say, through the black market? Bureaucrats would see that as a gold mine.
A question: What is the fertility rate in Egypt?
I ask because of FGM. Female castration. Are Iranian women also “shorn”?
(Painful and uncomfortable- they just don’t ‘get’ sex after that.
Their husbands try, but quickly lose interest, and have to resort to drugs to do the deed.)
Hmmmm; our host points out lots of general reasons and explanations for “The Closing of the Muslim Womb”> including ones that the regime’s prosecution of the war with Iraq would feed right into.
Given how universal this Muslim fertility collapse seems to be when correlated with literacy, what you’re pointing out might help explain why Iran’s demographic collapse has been the sharpest and fastest, but we’d still expect it to have happened without the war.
We’d also want to compare how quickly the Shah’s Maximum Effort literacy program worked compared to the increase in literacy in other societies.
“the leaders could simply order women to bare no fewer than 3 children. They could make it a religious requirement. Why haven’t they?”
Well, then the Iranian government would have to incarcerate most married women. Their husbands would not be too happy as they’d then have to cook, clean, care for kids and look elsewhere for those pleasures previously supplied in the conjugal context.
“order women to bare no fewer than 3 children”
What does undressing children have to do with this discussion?
You mix for obvious reason of wishful thinking , the long-term fate of Iran due to its dwindling fertility, and the agressive policy of its regime which is very actual and compelled to run into more agression in a very short term.
On the upper level of history a country singing the tune of ” viva la muerte ” is sinking too. But the short term dictates the agenda and the short term shows that Iran has received since 2003 _ the GW Bush wrong adress war in Iraq; a huge gain in influence, power, protagonism: There is now an iranian crescent of political-military presence running from the strait of hormuz, through Iraq, through, Syria and up to Lebanon on the mediterraean sea.That is no small feat, and it was engineered also thanks to the strategic myopia of the past 3 US presidents ( obviously BHO is a muslim-radical-leftist mole, when GW Bush was simply an amateur playing his hand into strategy ). So the sand clock has run its course, and now you wrote “a sniper is needed”, which magnify that for you too time has run its course, and it’s not anymore a question of waiting another 20 years for the fertility rate to bring the theocracy to its knees.But it’s more than a sniper, it’s the battle of england R.A.F vs.Luftwaffe, and unfortunately F.D.R ( BHO) is doing its best to speed up the demise of his so-called ally Winston Churchill (Israel). At this point of the comedy one should ask the actors ” bas les masques messieurs “, a big indignation campaign should be aimed at BHO the traitor, at H.Clinton the chamberlain, at L.Panetta the arm twister . Let’s call a spade , the traitor another Benedict Arnold and the mole a modern Aaron Burr.
viva la muerte ? It was Spain,that was the answer of a cripled general, Millan Astray, to Unamuno in 1936.
Here it was: patria , socialismo o muerte. Fatherland, socialim or death. of course with the dictator with cancer , now is Fatherland, socialism and life
Could it be that Iran seeks nuclear weapons, not to destroy Israel (even though they hate Israel), but rather to dominate or even take over neighboring oil-rich countries? This would (in some minds, not mine) be considered rational because the oil income from these countries would supply the money to tide them over the population problem.
Could be. But “Give us your oil or we’ll nuke you” seems like an empty threat these days. As soon as the Iranians let one off, the entire world would be against them.
Works as a bargaining tool. Refer to North Korea and Pakistan.
Threats seem to be their only functioning industry.
If that it is the goal they are doing it wrong.
The way to become a regional power is through conventional military power and allies. You want assets that can project power such as navy and air force. You want alliences with larger powers (think Israel and US) and other regionals who will support your agenda.
On top of all of that you need lots of money to spread around, so a strong economy is key.
The nuclear program is costing Iran dearly. Because of military sanctions what they have is substandard quality. They have no real air force and little credible air defense. Navy is mostly outdated or homegrown. Basically they have gutted any ability to have a credible conventional force in order to build a nuclear weapon and missiles.
They have also destroyed any possible regional alliance except for Hezbolla and Syria and there is big trouble there. They are the most isolated power in the region.
They have gutted their economy and are making it worse every day.
Turkey is a good example of how to do it.
If the goal was regional why antagonize Israel and the US? That is only counter productive.
Because they understand better than you do apparently how completely the USA is owned by the House of Saud.
Their aim is to become the regional Islamic (Shia) power and to do this they have to overthrow the House of Saud and take over Mecca and Medina, and the oilfields of course.
They understand that if they are to do this they must be able to credibly dissaude the US from intervening on behalf of the HoS, to do this they need to be able to put a nuclear umbrella over the Persian Gulf and the Arabian Sea.
It may sound crazy to you but they have provoked the US in many ways without getting a strong response. They believe that the US will not attack them if they have that nuclear capability. Would you sacrifice your children to maintain the power and wealth of the House of Saud?
This is correct. If you can find someone who has gone to mecca for the haj, They will gladly tell you how poor and dispret the saudi people truly are. It would not take much to over take the crown of saudi royal
Taking over Saudi Arabia how? You have the bomb and that is it?
We are talking about the house of Allah. That is even more catastrophic than Jerusalem.
Maybe they are that nuts.
No worries. All will be OK.
The title to Mecca and the Kaaba has changed hands fairly frequently over time, hasn’t it?
In the first 600 years of ‘official’ Islamic rule, only 2 Caliphs died a natural death.
Even Baku’s deal with Mohammed (‘sealed with blood’- the sale of daughter Aisha, as paper contracts are meaningless) only got him a year and a half.
That was after the Ummayid family killed Mohammed and took the keys to their city back. They were a tad pissed with Mo’s demand for 10% of the bazaar’s profits. Nobody even visits Mohommeds tomb.
They want to be the strong horse in the region. They’ve wanted us to take them seriously for almost 40 years now. With nukes, we are taking them seriously.
Problem is, the kind of attention they want is not necessarily the kind of attention they’re going to get.
Good piece. Yet another reason to expect the worst from Iran and to prepare to destroy all of their key facilities.
I still feel that some dangerous men are quite comfortable in dealing with a situation like Iran. They call it an opportunity.
Nonetheless, elimination of their key facilities could also be a profitable opportunity. The shadow economy plays rough.
I think it’s relevant, but I don’t know:
Who, exactly, is paying for 70,000 ‘security contractors’ and 2 billion-dollar ‘embassy’ fortresses in Iraq? And why?
I understand, but as an Israeli living within shouting distance of the Hizbollah, I’ll let time and fate take care of various ‘operators’ of all types.
In the meantime, we want to live – and will live. It’s the Mulllahs or us in the end. I choose us.
Khomeini’s midget sidekick Andimanutjob, has repeatedly declared that it is Iran’s mission on this earth to cause destruction and chaos so as to hasten the return of the infamous 12th Imam … their military leaders have heard this same rhetoric. Sitting around discussing the anhilation of Israel and the U.S.A. as needed steps to establish a worldwide Caliphate is perfectly rational in terms of Islam … but these leaders are totally taken by their own prideful arrogance and have reached the point where they think that they are gods, deciding who lives and who dies, just ‘cos. That, is not rational … it is the result of participation with evil. Assad “the Asshat” of Syria has become the same kind of individual … murdering women and children just ‘cos. The cries of the innocent will not go unheard; not any longer …. … and no amount of PC and pussyfooting around will change the fact that these bozos who think they are gods will meet their ends soon; very soon.
Perhaps it would be wise to take them at their word, after all the mass murders of the 20th century all made it clear what they intended.
The religious leaders and Imanutjob are religious zelots. Taking all their countrymen down that road sounds like a blessing to the these guys. You know, 70 virgins and all that crap.
Japs and Krauts did the same thing…
Rather the whole shebang goes up in smoke than give up their ideology and thrones…fight to the last man, pointed sticks in the streets will be the inevitable command. Millions dead for their pride…
Thats what “rational” tyrants do all the time, you can set you watch, calender and sundial by it. Its a no-brainer
Youch! True- then.
But no really big flare-ups since Rwanda.
Casualty counts through the 80′s average a million per conlflict, frequently.
(I consider Sudan and the Congo a slower bleed.)
Have we really reached a new equilibrium?
Has socialism evolved to the point where corruption, not land, is enough?
Or are the communists and islamics merely taking a breath before they double-team… well, Israel is first target in the West.
Gods, this is high stakes poker.
Except perhaps at the very end Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan had the people firmly behind their leadership. I’m pretty sure this isn’t so true in Iran, although we must distinguish between the more urban Greens who get the publicly when they protest in the big cities and what’s happening in the hinterlands (but if I remember correctly there’s at minimum a palpable lack of enthusiasm towards the regime in the latter).
Those two 20th century regimes materially improved the lot of the common people (the Nazis from WWI starvation and Wiemar chaos, the Imperials transitioning the country from the medieval to the modern after the Shogunate). By comparison, I gather things got a lot worse after the Shah was deposed; anyway, my point here is that these tyrants may be willing to fight to the last Iranian or Persian but it’ll be without the support of the latter. The can do it with nuclear weapons but we won’t see any variant of pointed sticks in the street. Heck, I’m pretty sure they’d be terrified at the concept of issuing rifles to the populace at large.
Quite true; I am certain, however, that the IRGC is willing to fight to the last Palestinian!
(That’s who they import as Basiji muscle to bash protest mobs.
Two guys on a motorcyle, the rider weilds a 4-foot baton, cutting a swathe through the crowd.)
If you look at the above chart of birth rates in Iran, note the big drop that took place in the mid-1980s. That was during the disastrous Iran-Iraq war, where Iran lost probably one million casualties, most of them dead. I’m sure the memory of this war is still fresh in the minds of a lot of people in Iran. I’m also sure that if threatened by another such war, most Iranians would not support it. That’s why we should make it very, very, clear to them that if they start another war with Israel, especially if it’s nuclear, it would mean the end of their country as they know it. I know, I know, you may say the religious fanatics in power don’t care about that. Well I sure the rest of the country does care about it, especially the Greens, and they may have the power to overthrow the current regime. Time to boost our support to all rebel groups in Iran who want to overthrow this crazy regime. And if we show them that the course they’re currently following will lead to the destruction of their nation, the bulk of the population may just believe it and do something about it, like regime change.
I am of two minds about irrationality and Iran. Their push for nuclear weapons and belligerance towards their neighbors suggests irrationality. However, Iran has often acted belligerantly via proxies, Hezbullah being a good example. This suggests some level of caution. Notice they haven’t gone after a US warship via direct action, they seem to understand that they might pay one hell of a price. They prefer to make IED’s for the neighbors.
If Israel attacks the 6 known nuclear production sites in Iran via a multilayered military strike, there can be no doubt that Iran and its proxies will respond. They will strike Israel proper and go after its international interests. Israel will respond in kind. I believe that it is likely Iran may also attack US assets, and assets of US allies, for it has killed thousands of Americans over many years and the only response has been diplomatic. When Iran has acted this way in the past the US has not taken direct action.
If Iran attacks US interests it will be interesting to see what Obama and Panetta do. My bet is they will react militarily as Obama will view it as a way to insure his return to the throne. I can’t gauge the level of response, but Obama must be tired of being called a bowing pussy. My bet is it will be porportional, but robust.
One things for sure, if it errupts into a full blown military conflict the demographics in Iran are going to take a hit. The Iranian military can inflict serious damage, but they are also going to get hit very forcefully. There are 3 carrier battle groups off their coastline right now. The level of violence that could be meted out by that task force would substantially attrit Iran’s military capability for a very long time.
We shall see how rational the Iranian mullahs are when that event occurs.
America’s ‘Rational’ Suicide – Since America is headed for its doom, and nearing bankruptcy and collapse, balkanization and breakup of the country, America is itching for a war with Iran — the bloodier the better.
A war with Iran will solve America’s problems.
“The U.S. fertility rate — which has been close to the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman in contrast to many developed nations that are well below that level — now is estimated to have fallen to 1.9, says demographer Joseph Chamie, former director of the United Nations Population Division and more recently research director at the Center for Migration Studies.”
Economic crisis slows U.S. population growth
http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/story/2012-02-16/us-population-growth-slows/53157486/1
Bingeaux!
Nice reversal, well done!
I see the same tats in financial articles as well-
#11 Libertyship: “time to boost our support to all rebel groups………” If we can do it clandestinely and quietly, I’m all in favor of that. And also helpful is trying to internally divide the regime’s forces: the Mullahs’ militia groups vs. the actual armed forces, as one example.
#12 Samizdat: “This suggests some level of caution.” I also agree with that thought.
People seem to forget that Pakistan has had “the Islamic bomb” for what, 20 years now, and nothing has happened. The worst thing to happen is for Israel to try and take out the nuclear facilities. They won’t get the ones underground or hidden; and any attack has the unpleasant result of uniting the Iranian people against an outside aggressor.
As for Obama being a “bowing pussy,” don’t forget that Reagan bailed out of Lebanon in the early 1980s when Iranian proxies took out our Marine barracks and also a French barracks.
But also don’t forget that the barracks bombing brought into sharp focus how their mission had devolved into little or nothing more than being “human sandbags” who were only sort of propping up the current order. The demonstrated risk wasn’t worth the gain (even if we’d switched to sane ROEs that would have allowed adequate force protection).
Iran getting nukes is another matter altogether. Pakistan has demonstrated having them for 14 years … that’s not very long as the history of human warfare goes. Especially with the rumors that after Iran gets the bomb Saudi Arabia will get their own “within weeks”, presumably from Pakistan; I have no idea how likely that is, but I can’t see this ending well.
Pakistan was held in check by us. Musharriff was an ally, though he played both sides of the fence. The Pakistanis carefully repected Mushariffs military control. Iran has made it’s intentions clear and has been involved with every terrorist group, who will accept their involvement, in the world. They have buckets of blood on their hands. I’m tired of the arm-chair moral relativists who use the silly rationale: “Well we have nukes and we’re the only ones who have actually used them.” And in a perfect world Carter wouldn’t have castrated the CIA and allowed Shah to fall, or the Panama Canal. We had practically zero eyes in the middle east. (Read: See No Evil, by Robert Baer). The CIA was reduced to gathering intelligence at State Department cocktail parties. Reagan erred on the side of caution and let the rats go back to their holes. What was the alternative, bomb Iran? Iran has been deferred ever since despite their finger prints all over most terrorist acts.
To make Mr. Goldman’s point even stronger, about the threat of Iran going berserk. Here is another historical precedent.
In the years leading up to World War I Germany underwent a fertility decline. The war dramatically accelerated this decline. This was reversed for one year in 1920 due to post-war euphoria, and then the low fertility resumed and continued.
When the Nazi leadership took power in 1933 it was well aware of German fertility decline and launched a major effort using both propaganda and financial incentives to boost childmaking, with little success.
Contrary to the popular myth that countries go to war because of excess young men, in fact the more powerful driver to war is fear on the part of a supremacist ideology that they are losing the fertility race and the future.
Mr. Goldman points this out with Iran leaders and it echoes Nazi Germany’s paranoia of being overwhelmed by more fertile Slavs and the “Bolshevik-Jewish” conspiracy that they believed ruled them.
The consequences of the Iran/Iraq war for Iran appear to have been catastrophic. The country has not recovered from the destruction wrought on its youth, the many 000s sacrificed to suicide in minefields. Why Reagan is praised for helping to stop one of the better wars of modern times remains a mystery to me. I am sure that Bush Sr. was well rewarded for assuring that Saddam remained in power when it would have been an easy matter to overthrow him. Saddam could only remain in power by making war, especially after his Soviet allies collapsed. Why we invaded to keep him in power marks the end of American hegemony, a hegemony which relied upon Soviet presence.
Whether your population extrapolations prove accurate Mr. Goldman, we will not be here to verify. I do believe the Muslim world will implode and the Chinese will have a large role to play in helping them off the planet, but the United States, which for decades, has lived off the capital of WW2 is now faced with the important business of rescuing its Republic. We are living in an era more resembling the 1850s than any other in American history. Globalism is done but not world trade. We need to rebuild our Navy, turn the Air Force back to the Army, create a Space Command, and reconstruct the Army on more civil basis with a strong SpecForces component. Thank the Lord for the Marines. But we have to ignore foreign wars, let NATO die a natural death, create strong bilateral alliances with like minded nations.
While many Americans want to surrender to Muslim extortions and threats, including many American Jews, it is not the responsibility of the US to protect Israel. It is Israel’s responsibility to protect itself. I personally was opposed to returning Sinai (where I lived once for almost a year)and expect Israel will recover it soon. A very tough neighborhood even in the best of times, there have not been many in the last 3 millennia, the idea that the Jews are responsible for “Arab extremism” is similar to holding America responsible for how South America has turned out. Actually, not too bad really. It should be noted there has ever been only one state between Egypt and Syria over the last 5000 years and it was not run by Canaanites or Muslims. And it will not be happening. Saudi money started buying public opinion and universities in the US after the Six Days War. It has finally paid off. There exists a big claque. Not a word spoken on behalf of the Egyptian Copts who are in grave risk. The wholesale destruction of Christianity in the ME since the 1840s, only in Israel has Christian population increased over the last 150 years, is utterly ignored in the western press. The good news is the Israeli know how to take care of themselves and when pressed, will give it the best they have. Bush ignored Sharon who advised him vs. fighting in Iraq but he got blamed by American academics, largely funded by Arab and American oil money. Sure, I’m paranoid.
We have made a remarkable mess of the corrupt porridge Churchill handed us in 1943. The good news we are almost free of our corrupt connections with the region. When our currency fails as it will and we pass on honoring the bonds held by the Arabs, we will be at the beginning of a new era, with an opportunity to build a more just world. Do not see many Arab states participating in this revival which will be marked by a great deal of violence, famine, biological warfare, genocide, but human life will survive what is coming in the second half of this century, a century of violence which Nietzsche, the smartest non-scientist of 19th century Europe, said would be much more violent than the 20th which was just arriving as his lights went out.
Spengler, keep up your brave work which is widely misunderstood as antiIslamic and misogynistic. Thank you.
The USA Saudi Arabia and Israel aided Iran because Iraq as proved latter was more dangeorus. Israel bombed Iraq while the Saudis were watching with the Awacs.The failing of Iran contras caused the Kuwait invasion. Without the scandal, the war would have lasted for ever and for good.
Iran is a shiite, persian country. That makes thwn a threat to the arabian countries . They played the Israel paper for the USA prior to the Yon Kippur war.
The retreat in 1982 was a mistake corrected by the bombing of Libya after downing a couple of airplanes. And the TWA terrorist arrest
Roger hit the nail on the head; Saudi Arabia owns USA foreign Policy.
For whatever reason writers on PJM are not allowed to address Saudi influence in USA, or its dominance and increasing massive funding of global terrorism. Iran and Israel do not operate in a Vacuum, it is theater created by House of Saud these last 350 years. The US is means to an end for Al Saud, and Israel has an unenviable relationship with tiger of the ME for better or worse, it was their choice to join Al Saud.
Until someone at JPM grows a backbone and writes truth of the Middle East, all these articles regarding Iran and Israel, Syria and Lebanon are fluff.
You idiotic neocons deliberately antagonized Russia (after the Cold War)…so now you are getting what you asked for.
Russia is/was a natural ally of the U.S. — but you neocons decided to deliberately antagonize Russia… WHY?
Russia upgrades radar protecting Tehran
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2012/feb/29/russia-upgrades-radar-station-syria-aid-iran/
It was Clinton that did that by bombing the Serbs. Which to us was basically the equivalent of someone bombing the Irish
One of the great historical blunders.
Call me a dreamer, but I wish we had thrown our arms open to Russia and shouted,
“We love you, Russian people! We have ALWAYS loved you!”
I so have to agree with both of you.
One of Clinton’s major, history making failures was to take advantage of a once in a century opportunity to establish close, warm ties with the Russians. It was such an opportunity! At the very least, the US government could have helped finance the demilitarization of the excess Russian nuclear weapons. There were proposals to do just that, but Clinton declined to get involved. Although, the US Navy very quietly established contacts with the Russian Navy and used internal Navy funds to help their Russian colleagues in this, until the funding was cut by Clinton and/congress. Such a waste!
And I wouldn’t even comment on Clinton’s use of the USAF to advance Islam in the Balkans other than to comment that years later I read that the EU/UN team that went into Kosovo to document the mass graves of Kosovars killed by the Serbs that was Clinton’s excuse for bombing Belgrade couldn’t find any graves. There were none. And they looked for months. Meanwhile the leaders of the Kosovars were involved in merchandising the organs taken from living Serbs, both POWs and local civilians.
and culminating with obama as president of the united states, the muslim middle east is concurrently sick, emboldened, and in turmoil, as never before, and can explode and implode all at once, at any time now. Obama, by embracing both iran’s mullahs and turkey’s erdogan, both countries at the very edge of breaking down, is using them to set off a nice big conflagration. what’s in it for him? well, go figure it out for yourself. he says he’s the One, right? well, ain’t he?
Well, I notice that Bill Clinton made in excess of $120 million giving speeches, many in Islamic nations, in the four years after his presidency. Maybe BHO would like to continue to live the extravagant nouveau riche life style that they have been enjoying on the taxpayer’s tab these last few years.
And if he comes out of the closet as being a Muslim, as an Egyptian cabinet member said he confided during his 2009 visit, he will find an audience in at least part of the world.
You are spewing nonsense. It was the foolish misadvisers to Clinton – the despicable Madeleine Halbright, and Sandy Sox Berger, and all the mindless neocons who were cheering on Clinton for bombing the Serbs. The neocons wanted us to bomb the Christians Serbs in favor of the ethnic Albanian jihadists, the Islamofascists. They wanted to created an Islamofascist state in the heart of Europe run by Albanian gangsters and jihadists. WHY?
When Moscow pulled the Red Army out of Europe, closed its bases in Cuba, dissolved the evil empire, let the Soviet Union break up into 15 states, and sought friendship and alliance with the United States, what did we do?
American carpetbaggers colluded with Muscovite Scalawags to loot the Russian nation. Breaking a pledge to Mikhail Gorbachev, we moved our military alliance into Eastern Europe, then onto Russia’s doorstep. Six Warsaw Pact nations and three former republics of the Soviet Union are now NATO members.
Bush, Cheney and McCain have pushed to bring Ukraine and Georgia into NATO. This would require the United States to go to war with Russia over Stalin’s birthplace and who has sovereignty over the Crimean Peninsula and Sebastopol, traditional home of Russia’s Black Sea fleet.
When did these become U.S. vital interests, justifying war with Russia?
The United States unilaterally abrogated the Anti-Ballistic Missile treaty because our technology was superior, then planned to site anti-missile defenses in Poland and the Czech Republic to defend against Iranian missiles. A Russian counter-offer to have us together put an anti-missile system in Azerbaijan was rejected out of hand.
We built a Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline from Azerbaijan through Georgia to Turkey to cut Russia out. Then we helped dump over regimes friendly to Moscow with democratic “revolutions” in Ukraine and Georgia, and tried to repeat it in Belarus.
How would we have reacted if Moscow had brought Western Europe into the Warsaw Pact, established bases in Mexico and Panama, put missile defense radars and rockets in Cuba, and joined with China to build pipelines to transfer Mexican and Venezuelan oil to Pacific ports for shipment to Asia? And cut us out? If there were Russian and Chinese advisers training Latin American armies, the way we are in the former Soviet republics, how would we react? Would we look with bemusement on such Russian behavior?
WHY DO THE NEOCONS HATE RUSSIA SO MUCH? I DEMAND AN ANSWER!
The neocons have messed up America with their insane foreign policy. Ironically, they have also endangered Israel. Israel is in great danger thanks to the neocons “brilliant” ideas. With “friends” like the neocons and the unholy trinity McCain-Lieberman-Graham Israel doesn’t need any enemies.
*Madeline Halfbright
Dirty, dirty players on both sides, often happily colluding while playing pretend opposition. So much damage. They really don’t care.
Gods, I wish these sandbags would invest as much effort in patriotism and America as they do in the Great Game.
Hegel’s Problem:Solution.
It really is the dominant cultural theme to come.
Possibly a guide to the new ethos? Or are we all Soviets now?
To answer your demand, I propose:
An individual mind operates very differently from groups- the Herd mind-(everybody misses that, individual values are not fractal);
then, probably, economics and profitability act very differently once they go beyond borders. That seems to be where the apex predators play.
Politics is not about the electing the right people, it’s about making bad people do the right thing. How can we do this? If they are beyond borders, they are beyond law and custom. How do we reach them?
@ 20 I’m amazed PJM has not deleted your comment. Personally I got banned over at Ledeen’s for asking him if he supports arming all opposition to Assad, including the MBO. I’ve also been politely told to tone it down if not blocked at Wretchard’s blog….pretty sad considering some of the more annoying characters over that way who continue to spew off topic nonsense without much in the way of a tinny raised. I hope and pray nobody from PJM told Wretchard to run me off, he seems too independent for that.
Spengler at least in exception to the PJM’s widespread fear and loathing of Russia understands the once Evil Empire is now a biznis partner to Israel, even if it will never be a public ally.
Why should PJM delete my comment? I stated the facts, that’s all.
It is either a TREMENDOUS strategic miscalculation, or something much more malicious…
Russia is a natural ally of the U.S. Shame on Bush, Cheney, Bill Clinton and all the neocons for screwing it up. America and Israel will pay the price…
WHY DO THE NEOCONS HATE RUSSIA?
That’s the word I was looking for- ‘biznis’. Thank you.
It’s all just biznis.
My last comment was murky and hastily done. I must apologise.
I don’t get to do this often.
I do look at issues quite differently; not to ask who is ‘right or wrong’, but, ‘what are we actually looking at?’ and ‘how does it work?’
I must admit, the Olympian certainly does a good job in pointing towards the most likely probability- but what effect will ‘biznis’ have on that calculation?
The American Empire is coming down. It is UNSUSTAINABLE. Make no mistake about it – America IS an Empire.
All of the Empires of the 20th Century collapsed — Austria-Hungary, Ottoman Empire, British Empire, French, Soviet Union…America will also collapse – its just a matter of time…
The Kissingers, Brzezinskis, Halfbrights, Bergers, Cheneys, and neocons have done incalculble damage to this nation.
WHY DO THE NEOCONS HATE RUSSIA SO MUCH?
Let me count the ways: Putin has a personal net worth in excess of $30 billion,and people who criticize him have an unfortunate habit of falling out of high windows? Personally, I thought the Georgians were a bunch of soreheads not worth American support, and I’ve criticized US policy towards Russia extensively. Putin and Medvedev are not nice guys, though. In foreign policy, they are spoilers, playing for narrow advantage with the scum of the earth.
Of course Putin is not a nice guy. He is Mr. KGB. He is a Russian nationalist. I respect that. He stands up for his country and countryman. I wish our leaders would stand up for us… Do we need a Putin to save America?
The oligarchs looted Russia – Mikhail Khodorkovsky, Mikhail Fridman, Roman Abramovich, Mikhail Prokhorov… Putin stood up to the thieves who looted the Russian people — and dealt with them.
Russia is a natural U.S. ally. They wanted to associate with us after the Cold War. But the braindead neocons deliberately antagonized them… A TREMENDOUS strategic miscalculation… America and especially Israel will pay the price. With “friends” like the neocons Israel doesn’t need any enemies.
I was an advisor to Yegor Gaidar in 1992-1993 and spent a good deal of time in Russia.
What you are saying is far too simple. Yes, the US did some dumb things; one was contesting Ukraine, as I argued here
http://www.firstthings.com/article/2010/05/the-morality-of-self-interest
and elsewhere. That got me into hot water with my Catholic friends, who have a stake in the Uniate Church, but no matter; the best solution probably is partition. Americans have to understand how important to Russia are the Russian-speakers in the near abroad. On the other hand, Putin himself is an oligarch — don’t be naive — and he has done his country no service by using the Kremlin as if it were his family office.
re: “Does the US need a Putin to save it?”
Please see Rome and it’s history. As the US is modeled on it quite a bit it’s relevant.
I’d prefer to remain a republic and not an expansionist empire (Unless we’re going into space. Plenty of property out there.)
“Putin stood up to the thieves who looted the Russian people — and dealt with them”.
Translation: Putin was the mafiya boss w/the most firepower.
I was watching a bit of the Orange revolution at a diner with a Ukrainian.
I think he was the one who told me Speznatz was going into mafya buildings and just shooting everyone inside. No more crime wave after a while!
@ 22 check this out:
So much for PJM’s efforts to portray Moscow as the mortal enemy of Israel and behind all of Israel’s enemies! David of course already knew this was going on, so if this particular email can be authenticated it just confirms that Israel already has the codes to nearly all Russian air defense systems with Moscow’s willing complicity:
http://en.rian.ru/world/20120229/171614647.html
Next thing you know PJM will report bipartisan committees of Congresspeople demanding that bases be shut down overseas before they get closed in the U.S. — more proof those dastardly Ronulan ideas are taking over despite PJM’s best efforts to stamp them out here.
I’ve heard that Israel gets 90% of its oil or gas from Russia.
How, then, does the Russian port in Syria play in this?
Can we ‘give’ Syria to Russia like we ‘gave’ the sudden Libyan oil bank to Europe?
How would Iranian proxies react to a larger Russian role?
I don’t know if the Hizb would quiet down or demand more.
I certainly understand Spengler’s desire to be quit of the whole mess.
Just sit back and wait for the curtain.
Letting Russia and China deal with it means a lot of Uzbekistans and Sudans, possibly.
A lot of careers depend on it all, though.
Sure would be nice if some of them had a pro-American, pro-West, pro-Israel, pro-peace mindset. Perhaps then we could develop a sustainable policy like the Cold War policy; that lasted through 8 presidencies.
Play fair or we’ll ignore you!
Saakashvili was wrong. He was the aggressor. Georgia started this fight – Russia finished it. Georgia attacked what Saakashvili claims is his own country, killing scores of his own Ossetian citizens and sending tens of thousands fleeing into Russia.
George Bush, Dick Cheney, and John McCain, were on the wrong side.
I supported Putin. He was right in the Russian-Georgia conflict.
WHY DO THE NEOCONS HATE RUSSIA?
This commenter is wrong. Russia had 1200 tanks waiting at the border which zoomed into Geogia within hours of the beginning of the conflict. Someone at the NSA or the CIA or the other US intelligence agencies, clearly withheld the information about these tanks from the Georgians, and President Obama and Hillary pretended to be surprised by the Russian actions. Obama and Hillary of course knew that Georgia was a pro-Israel country and that the Israelis were thinking of staging air attacks on Iran from Georgia, could it be that Obama and Hillary acquiesced in the Russian invasion as a warning to Georgia, to not get involved with Israel ? As for the Russian motivation to attack Georgia, is it possible some Ayatollahs made campaign contributions to Messrs. Putin and Medvedev ?
Why do we ‘hate’ Russia? Because the apparatchniks became the Mafya.
We can deal with Russia like we do with Venezuela.
I stongly disagree about Ossetia and Akbazia. They are just pirate dens where Russia hands out citizenship cards to anything breathing. Russia was the aggressor- I didn’t see Georgian tanks agressing the Russian border. Russia is occupying Georgian territory.
I understand that Saakashvili paid big money to a Republican Beltway PR firm;
I don’t hear many complaints when Democrat campaign managers flock to Europe to help the Socialist, Communist, and Green parties.
Perhaps you missed the memo that socialists, such as our Democrat party, are usually the ones to attack other socialists. Can’t share. That would explain Soros funding of the color revolutions.
The most important part Georgia has to play is as a staging base for an Israeli attack on Iran. Nicely avoid the whole Arab air-space and in-air fuel supply problem.
Even the Bush administration forbid that- on who’s advice, I don’t know, but I have my suspicions about the agency staffers.
Russia plays hard and dirty, but they are predictably patriotic.
I’m hoping they will keep teasing Iran with a tight leash and unfulfilled promises.
Maybe they will fulfill the containment Spengler hopes for- and I think they should get Afghanistan back. They were civilizing the place, after they ruined it with the 1973 Afghan Marxist Party. Break it an you buy it.
Maybe they should split the Caspian/Azeri half of Iran and let India have the Persian half.
We’ll give the Arab and Balochi bits (Iraq included) to China for a bit of Sudanese-style pacification, and let the Kurds keep Anatolian Turkey occupied. Deal?
Putin’s revenge for U.S. supporting Kosovo is South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
Perhaps in the future (a few decades) the Southwest will secede from America and rejoin Mexico.
Affirmative action and judicial activism are Democrat strategies to pack the bureaucracies with loyalists.
Lulac, Mecha, and la Raza run the state of California- in the interest of their own.
Mexico has already taken back Califas, gracias.
No need for tanks here. Yet. Cartel and Mexican Army heavy mobile weaponry have already crossed the border in Arizona several times, however.
Now we’re just mostly fighting a Cartel proxy war in Mexico.
The US is backing Sinaloa (West Coast), Cuba and Hizbollah back Golfo Zeta (East Coast).
Sorry- just a small clarificaton, please.
It’ll be fine- just a change- I’d rather have Latinos, quite a good bunch really. Gentle, studious, and familial- except the Aztecas training in our prisons (Cartel boot camp.) The ‘bangers drop that gangsta crap right away as soon as they get married and have their first kid. Complete 180.
The only problem is they prefer to hire their own.
Whites and Blacks are just a little lazy, and much too loud.
Like to yell and wave their arms around.
The Mexican Invasion is more interesting than most know or admit. I live in Arizona and am classified as an Anglo – my German-Franco-Irish ancestors would be outraged – and have numerous friends and contacts within the local Hispanic community. Just a few factoids:
* Sections of Arizona are posted by the US Government as being too dangerous for citizens to enter. I find it interesting that there is no apparent effort to remove the danger from these areas, they are just effectively ceded.
* One of the Mexicans arrested a couple of years ago when a US Border agent armed with a non-lethal weapon was killed with an assault rifle sold to one of the cartels by the Phoenix Arizona office of the ATF, testified under oath that he and his cohorts were hunting for Border Patrol agents to kill along the US side of the Border at the time of the incident.
* We have illegals living in government funded housing receiving food stamps and child support monies – I personally have seen the paperwork.
* The campaign by incumbent Raul Grijalva in 2012 was explicitly racist toward his opponent, a white gringa – and she almost won. The word on the street was that the illegal vote carried him over the line.
* I know American citizens of Mexican ancestry who have lost their jobs to their illegal ‘cousins’ who will work for much less, sometimes illegally less. This invasion isn’t just hurting whites and blacks, it is also hurting Mexican-American citizens.
* I have heard many stories about vulgar, racist comments made to white people, especially women, by some of ‘those good people who just want to come here for a good job’.
* And speaking of that, I have been told by several Mexican-Americans that the Mexicans are only here to make money. In general they dislike or hate the US and just want to come here for the chance to make money and then go home.
However, I have to sympathize as the US via the NAFTA treaty has done much to destroy the rural Mexican economy. Many of the people forced to seek work in the US have been forced to do so because with NAFTA cheap mid-western maize has destroyed the traditional rural Mexican economy, leaving millions out of work. But I’m sure a lot of rich Americans and rich Mexicans are richer for it.
None of this gets into the media, but the whole situation is very nuanced, to use one of Al Gore’s favorite terms.
“Gentle, studious, and familial . . . Whites and Blacks are just a little lazy, and much too loud.”
Hmm, my across the alley neighbors, yes! And even when they have their big family Cirque de Mayo barbeque whats to dislike about loud mariachi music celebrating a great victory over the Frogs?
However, note that Phoenix Arizona was the number two kidnapping location in the WORLD until the recent Arizona Proposition empowered police to check lawful presence in the US as part of an already occurring police stop. After that passed, a lot of illegals left and the crime rate plummeted. Let’s keep to the facts and avoid too much Kumbiya. A lot of young, illegal Hispanics in the US are armed, violent and dangerous.
Iran is irrational but crazy like a fox. They have made spectacular military armaments progress by betting on the incompetence and short-sightedness of the US and the West. Iran’s strategic goals are to secure Iraq and to secure the Shia areas of Saudia Arabia. Iraq has vast oil reserves and most of Saudi Arabia’s oil is in its Shia areas. So if Iran succeeds in this plan ipso fact the whole Western world and of course China and Russia, will immediately race to kowtow to the Ayatollahs in Iran. The irrational aspect of Iranian behavior is that the whole society including the so-called “greens” who supported Musavi, the entire Iranian society is permeated with Jew-hatred. To the Iranians, murdering Jews en masse is more important than any political gains or strategic border changes. So they might sacrifice their strategic goals to appease their blinding hatred of Jews, the same way Hitler put vast German resources into the German murder machine at the same time Germany was fighting a war on two fronts. Muslim Iranians are spoon fed hatred of Jews from birth. Of course this is true of many Sunni countries but no Sunni country is in the grip of extremists like the Ayatollahs, although some are perilously close. Our president, is the son of a Muslim. His mother was married to two different Muslim men. Obama was raised as a Muslim. Could this be the reason why he believes Iran can be “contained” once it becomes a declared nuclear weapons state ? Hillary Clinton is a dangerous person who will move the goalposts at any opportunity. Obama’s number one foreign policy advisor was Zbigniew Brzezinski, a man committed to the destruction of Israel, the same man who ennabled the Pakistani nuclear weapons program. Iran understands very well that Obama is their friend and that they can push the envelope as far as they want while he is President. They also know that a nuclear weapons test prior to the November election would almost certainly throw the election to the Republicans. So expect an Iranian nuclear test shortly after the US election, whatever the outcome.
Holy smokes. Well done. I’d forgotten the Shia Crescent.
I agree- a feint. Menace Arabia, gain Iraq. While the Administration and media ignore Iraqi politics, and continue the Carter II policies against Israel.
This is, after all, the Party that brought Khomeini to power.
Salafi Egypt will be watching to see if the Jew-baiting keeps people’s mind off their stomachs… and how much can be attempted.
Our host has also pointed out that there’s a sizable at risk Shia minority in Pakistan that Iran’s seriously worried about.
Your point about a feint, at least in the short to medium term, might have merit. E.g. Arabia has something resembling an whole military, including a serious Air Force. On the other hand we shouldn’t discount the enmity between Arabs and Persians; I don’t know how great this is, but I do remember reading that the agents of Iran have had problems implementing the regime’s schemes if for no other reason than that they don’t speak Arabic well.
Not sure Egypt is going Salafi (the latter could be allowed to rant and rave right now to make the Muslim Brotherhood look like a good alternative) but I suspect Jew-baiting will be of limited utility in distracting the masses from their empty stomachs, especially if there’s a disaster “of Biblical proportions” as feared by our host.
One more thing- does Iraq have refineries? Say, in the south?
“So expect an Iranian nuclear test shortly after the US election, whatever the outcome.”
Very good point.
Sorry to break it to you guys (from RIA Novosti, citing Stratfor citing a Latin American source re: Israel):
There aren’t 1200 tanks in active service maybe in the whole Russian army, and the chap above thinks Russia could squeeze 1,200 through the Roki Tunnel? Really?
Of course, Russia being ready to roll in July 2008 and Georgia planning to attack South Ossetia are not mutually exclusive by any means. It’s fairly clear to me Russia had good sources inside Saakashvili’s cabinet, or at least people who were ready to flee to Moscow and publically denounce him after his short, spectacularly failed war. Saakashvili you see made the fatal mistake of actually believing Cheney and co had his back. They didn’t, they were just using him as a pawn to bait the Bear.
But I get sick and tired of all sorts of ‘conservative’ site webizens presuming that Russia just hurled bazillions of tanks and men at the poor little outnumbered Georgians. The poor little outnumbered Israelis remember used to mop the floor routinely with Soviet-trained Egyptians in 67′ and 73′. In reality Russia’s 58th Army was about 1 to 1 with the 10,000-strong, U.S. Marine-trained Georgian army, who were fighting on their home turf — and lost. Or rather, didn’t want to die for Saakashvili’s mistake and withdrew to Tblisi. The road to which by the way was wide open. If Putin’s real intent had been to subjugate and occupy Georgia that was militarily possible if not politically feasible.
The Russian invasion was a punitive expedition, plain and simple, to ensure that Georgia never tried to take S.O. and Abkhazia back in by force ever again.
Agree to both.
Expendable bait, and a punitive expedition.
(That includes Kosovo payback, too.)
Probably a warning to Israel as well.
Fleeced and used. Proxy conflict.
The social distress within the Iranian republic (!) is likely the inevitable outcome of the hubris at the top. I have a friend who is from the Kurdish minority within Iran. After 30 years in the US, he visited his aging parents back in Iran for a few months. This gave him the occasion to renew contacts with people he knew in his youth. He was dismayed to see them having lost their spirits, turned to despondency and drugs.
The desire to have children comes in great part from the hope of a better future. Even among people living is terrible circumstances, spirituality can flourish. So the demoralization of a whole society is a terrible calamity. When hope is lost, everything else is bound to crumble. I wonder if the educated within the islamic world are those who best sense the superiority of the West, even as they have repeated the chants “death to America” in many occasions. Leaving the country, as they did in droves, was the rational response. What they left behind is desolate, and under one of the worst tyrannies of our time.
So, is the loss of fertility a rational response? I am afraid it is rather a manifestation of despair. These people could use whatever support we could offer them. In the meantime, the regime is dangerous, and has to be confronted. There is no fundamental difference between the small bullies and the big bullies. The only rational way to deal with them both is to challenge them, proportionally. They do not retract until it is the only option left to them. Whatever crazy thing they are up to is also a manifestation of our failure to confront them with sufficient vigor and determination. Are we falling into despair as well?
Beautiful and a bit heartbreaking.
Thanks for helping me decide.
Screw the games.
These good people were our friends.
Time to do our part and salvage Cyrus’ descendents.
D*mn the players who have protected the monsters all these years!
Is it possible, just possible, the security contractors in Iraq are waiting for an opportune moment?
D*mn. Forgot about that Islamic thing.
But then I remembered that Israel thing.
Save one, save the other.
Thanks so much for letting me comment way too much.
You are ruining my normal 15-hour day, 350 days per year, work life.
Goodnite all, looking forward to the next!
Thanks, all, for today’s education. Slightly OT: I’m not sure how Islamic inbreeding affects the above conversation about fertility rates. Is that more common in different areas? Different traditions (e.g. Sunni vs Shia)? It seems that it will definitely have an impact on future ME fertility where it’s practiced. (Around here, a lot of Islamic kids are on one “short bus” or another-either an islamic academy or a special ed bus)
I am now wondering if there is any numbers on Persian vs Arab rates for the place.
First, if you want to work under a horse’s tail, you grab it by the nose. Iran has to make Israel the focus because the real concern is the Sunni, but can’t say so just now. Note, that the Saudis said if Iran get the bomb they will have one too. Once that happened, then sanctions started in looking better and better.
The next step will be Israel, to establish Iran as the leader of the Muslim world. It will have to be done, and further, there will be not concern about the butcher’s bill on that one, so no one should think that deterrence is a possibility.
I think the best hope is to jolly them along like we did the Soviets, until they discover that they are too far gone to recover with a war.
Well that’s a new wrinkle in the imperial fabric: ZPG is destabilizing and grounds for war.
Wouldn’t they run out of oil faster with more soccer mom trips to consume it?
Emerson actually said that “foolish consistancy is the hobgoblin of little minds.”
David,
Thanks for the reply in the next thread and linking to your interview with Friedman, which I was unaware of.
Once again, as someone who’s visited Stratfor’s offices I never took them too seriously as they took themselves way too serious, and the Poland as a world dominant power thing was the icing on the cake in that respect. Friedman seems too locked into the old Cold War ‘Oceania versus Eurasia/Eastasia’ mentality with predicting the break up of China and Russia to make much sense.
The Economist‘s Ed Lucas made the same mistake in the 1990s, telling Moscow fund manager Eric Kraus (as recorded at Kraus’ site Truth and Beauty and Russian Finance) with all due seriousness that he expected Russia to break into four mutually hostile states by the 2000s (this was in the mid-1990s).
And yet people still take The Economist quite seriously when they are totally unreliable when it comes to Russia and the former Soviet Union due to the spite and biases of one man. Lucas’ Russophobia is notorious even among the folks at Western media bureaus who dislike being in Moscow because they’re constantly surrounded by non-neck guys from the regions who speak no English but make far more money than they ever will.
In fact, others at PJM still link to AEI’s mag The American on the subject of Russia where Nick Eberstadt insists the Russian Federation is still dying demographically when it’s more or less stabilized for the past few years following the mid-1990s nadir of fertility. Compared to the Visegrad countries and the Baltics, Russia is experiencing a baby boom as any visitor to Moscow or its near suburbs can attest (a two bedroom apartment in Metische on the edge of MKAD goes for $150,000 these days without any indoor plumbing or fixtures — in other words, take that price and double it). Thus always good to see the pre-disposed thinking — the Evil Empire is dying out under Putin’s neo-Soviet rule – with the reality that Russians are slowly starting to have children again, particularly among the cohort born in the 1980s and early 1990s.
I’m not up to speed on the latest Russian demographic data, but I hope Russia reverses its demographic decline. It is one of the world’s great cultures and humanity would be poorer for its decline.
Except the Iranian theocrats view themselves as the natural leaders of the Islamic Caliphate under which boundaries between nation states disappear. Is Irans concern the lack of a new generation of ” Iranian ” children or lack of Islamic Jihadists to make their dreams come true? The latter gets my vote.
More about Avigdor Lieberman and the Kremlin here:
http://www.news-israel.net/article.asp?code=30164
http://www.infowars.com/obama-promises-israel-use-of-bases-for-iran-attack-if-it-will-wait/
Or perhaps he votes yes and his bread is still buttered, as it were.
Is a wolf rational? Yes – it has it’s targets and it’s methods are quite sane. Is a hungry, thirsty wolf rational? Yes and No. It still has cunning and goals, but it lacks patience. It’s aggression and hostility are more important, and its normal methods can be forgotten. A well- fed, well-watered wolf is much more pacific and predictable.
So the JSC General is correct in a trivial way. Iran is a rational actor the same way a wolf is a rational actor. What a pity that our leaders are trivial minded.
The Iranian religious authorities have failed the RORSCHACH TEST.Apparently the Political and military leaders have also.Straight jackets would be highly recommended except for the fact that they are not Sharia -compliant.Therefore a hot enema is highly recommended for all Iranian parties to aid in the Final Solution.
I think there’s an error in the analysis.
Check out Iran’s oddball age-distribution (result of the Iran-Iraq war):
http://www.nationmaster.com/country/ir-iran/Age-_distribution
The huge population-bulge, born during and after the war (too young to fight), are just hitting family-starting age now.
Re “…Emerson’s dictum that consistency is the hobgoblin of little ones,” the actual quote was that “FOOLISH [my caps] consistency is the hobgoblins of small minds,” the operative word being “foolish.” Big difference. I don’t believe the author’s borrowing from Emerson does much to further his
argument.
Coming from Emerson, who went from Unitarianism to Transcendentalism (whatever that might mean), the qualifier “foolish” seems tendentious and self-serving. Translated into plain English, Emerson meant, “What I say is NOT inconsistent, because I am the one saying these things, whose true consistency lies in the fact that I am the one who has said them all. Ultimately Emerson is an intellectual narcissist.
I think euthanasia will be inevitable for Iran.
I haven’t read all the comments, which I will shortly, as Spengler’s commentaries are both excellent and they also attract some very interesting reader commentary.
However, a very simple factoid just occurred to me, the Iran-Iraq War. I don’t recall the casualties, but they were very high. Look at the children per woman in 1980 – 6.27 and compare them to the numbers in 1990 – 3.95! What happened between those years, the islamic mullahocracy came to power and the Iran-Iraq War. You see this phenomena in Russia as well, the Russian Army once was called the ‘steamroller’ because of it’s huge manpower reserves, now Russia is also on the demographic downward slide. The wars killed or maimed so many of the young men in their prime reproductive years that it has had a major demographic affect. I know this is simplistic, but I have to think it is a major underlying cause to which all the other issues contribute. In Iran additional causes are centered around the islamic mullahocracy, in Russia it was the social consequences of communism. In both cases, large young male death rates plus inimical social policies equal dramatic decline in babies.
Why does the birth rate in a culture in which women have no rights drop? Are the boys turning to other boys? Are the fertile women being sequestered in Harams belonging to old men? Are the young men leaving the country for jobs elsewhere?