Corruption and Islamism in Egypt
Egypt under Mubarak was a tightly-controlled kleptocracy, and Egypt since Mubarak has been an uncontrolled kleptocracy, in which public officials steal whatever isn’t tied down. Shiploads of rice, diesel fuel, and other tradables are leaving Egyptian ports for hard-currency markets, while the country–which imports half its caloric consumption–runs out of money. Mubarak’s elite has helicopters revving on their roofs. It’s no surprise Islamists swept this week’s parliamentary elections. Whom do we expect Egyptians to vote for?
A new book by an economics reporter at Egypt’s al-Wafd party’s newspaper alleges massive corruption at the country’s central bank. Reviewed in al-Wafd newspaper today, the book by Mohamed Adel Ajmi claims that central bank chief Farouk Abd El Baky El Okdah exercises one man rule over the country’s banking system through cronies in all the central bank’s major departments. The central bank’s reserves, Ajmi claims, are unaudited and subject to the personal control of the central bank governor, who abused his position to enrich political allies of deposed Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak.
Theft on the grand scale from central banks is nothing new in the Muslim world. Last September, “Mahmoud Bahmani, the head of Iran’s Central Bank, denied rumours that $2-billion has already been transferred out of the country as part of a $3-billion embezzlement,” for example. The al-Wafd report has some credibility, considering that the Egyptian military dismissed all the central bank’s outside directors in October, leaving no-one but political appointees.
The central bank has financed perhaps $7 billion of flight capital out of its reserves, according to Raza Agha of Royal Bank of Scotland, as the Financial Times reported Nov. 4. Egypt’s spendable liquid reserves are well below the $22 billion figure mentioned in most news accounts–probably $13 billion, according to Agha, or less than three months’ import coverage.
More and more I am being won over that the Islamic world should be isolated: No trade, no financial aid, no overseas bases, no food aid. Let Allah provide (or not).
Any military intervention will be in the form of punitive strikes or to take out WMD development facilities. No occupation.
Of course Pakistan already having nukes makes this dicey and there will have to be alternatives found for Mideast oil. Not easy, but in the end, probably a better alternative than maintaining the status quo.
I agree. That is why we need to get all the oil out of there as soon as possible. DAR. Drain America Last.
And one more thing , WE HAVE TO STOP ANY IMMIGRATION FROM MUSLIM COUNTRIES
Bingo,we have a winner.
It took many lives billions of bucks but finally we are getting it!
These are mostly corrupt nations that will steal from one another regardless of whether or not their govts. have been installed by war or formally elected. Sharia will rule as will the brainwashed form of govt. called Islam.
Our best bet is that they do what they have done historically which is devise plans to kill one another.
I’ve been enjoying your analysis of the “Arab Spring” since January–great work. One question though, are you predicting *actual* starvation, or that there will be a food-crisis that will likely be alleviated by charities and foreign donors? As incompetent and backward as the Muslim Brotherhood is, they could still probably hunt down sufficient food donations, no? Sen suggests even corrupt democracies don’t actually starve.
Europeans have a financial/demographic crisis now, and American politicians want to look hard and strong for the 2012 election. Somalia and the other usual African basket cases are already testing existing programs. Libya and Syria are toast, and Iran and Turkey are playing defense. Saudi Arabia offers a bit of minor aid and symbolic moral support but keeps most of its wealth for its own fun. There just isn’t any liquidity to help Egypt, no one to step up. They are bankrupt as a civilization. There WILL be famine.
Does this mean we will be treated to another “Live Aid” concert, like the one for Ethiopia in 1985?
I predict actual starvation. Even if donors provide aid, as in Somalia, it won’t get to all the people who need it.
Also: Apologies to posters who had to wait for me to approve their posts. I don’t work on Shabbat so new posts coming in between Friday and Saturday sundown can’t be processed.
What Egypt needs is economic growth. If the new emerging government can deliver that they will prevail. I doubt that.
The formidable military has survived by a combination of its own revenue producing centers and alliance with the US. The former will now collapse and with it whatever passes for military leadership. The US support should be left to wither on the vine.
Let them go and see what happens. A weaker Egypt already is a fact. Slow exodus of the productive class will continue given the current events. They are moving to the wrong direction. A liberal democracy focused on entreperuial economy and technology could turn things but that will not happen. Instead a turning inward to religion and traditional comforts will only sclerose and fixate existing problems.
“What Egypt needs is economic growth. If the new emerging government can deliver that they will prevail. I doubt that.”
They had NO growth during the periods of the Nasser, Sadat and Mubarak regimes that was not stolen. There will be NO growth during this Islamist regime. In fact, the ONLY income anyone can anticipate is the aid that will be given by the west. As it is a foregone conclusion the the Islamic world will not support Egypt. Like many others I have supported a complete ban on ANY trade relations with the Middle East. Anything that would hasten a complete collapse of these Islamic regimes would be a good thing. The more these governments have to scramble to feed their people, the less mischief they will attempt. As a matter of fact, I can foresee an Egypt ATTACKING Libya for its oil. ALL of the current regimes including Iran and Iraq are in danger of being overthrown. In addition, I can guess that the WEST will be invited in to stabilize this region (Middle East). If we are, we should turn away.
As an aside, anything that we can do to grow our petroleum and gas resources, will provide even more fuel to the fire of the Middle East. Let’s see how long the oil producers there can survive on $50 oil. If the governments will not educate their citizens, open their markets (talk about crony capitalism), continue to let the religious zealots run rampant throughout all of their institutions these governments are not worthy of our support. For those who say that the oil will go to our potential enemies (China etal.) Let it. There are sufficient fuel reserves in this hemisphere to compensate. In addition, there ARE nuclear technologies available that ARE safe to power this country. Thorium comes to mind. This is a low density material that COULD power literally neighborhood power plants with little or no danger to the environment or society.
No good can come from allowing these countries to be treated as “too big (or too dangerous) to fail”. They HAVE failed and we are reaping what has been allowed to be sown.
And what if Chinese decide to move in? They sit on a huge pile of cash and are currently engaged in spending spree. Egypt may look good in theirs collection next to some European corporations, African mines, etc. Buying a junta and subsidizing some food for the people which have no hope are going to be cheap if Spengler’s predictions turn accurate.
China is not nearly as rich as they appear. They squandered their resources on cities that nobody lives in, malls that don’t have stores, and state run factories that keep the peasants employed but produce product in absence of normal market forces.
China is going to have a very hard economic landing in the not too distant future.
What would be in it for the Chinese?
Egyptian fortune cookies, and a Chinese Sphinx.
Cheers
What will the chinese get in return – THE SUEZ CANAL.
and i need to know where this notion of Egypt importing half its calorific consumption comes from. Egypt currently imports half its wheat. Not the same thing at all.
If even Socrates could produce an Alcibiades, was there ever any hope that the West’s disciple-dictators would become philosopher-kings?
Mr. Goldman:
I’ve often speculated (or should that be, fantasized?) about someone creating a “Radio Free Christianity” – a radio station situated in a secure (i.e., safe from Islamists) location broadcasting, preferably with frequent proselytizing, 24/7, Christian programming across the Middle East? For example, the “Jesus Film” (http://www.jesusfilm.org) is reputed to be particularly effective in prompting Middle East Muslims to convert to Christianity.
Of course, we Jews don’t proselytize, but a “Radio Free Christianity” modeled after Radio Free Europe, might be the next best thing. What do you think?
It’s already being done, on a fairly large scale. A lot of it is out of Cyprus; it’s no secret. Look up Father Boutros, a Coptic priest, who is a surprise hit amongst Muslim audiences as he discusses their holy texts. To give you an idea of what’s at stake, Al Qaeda have a huge bounty, $60m US I think, on his head. It won’t surprise you to learn that Fr Boutros lives in an “undisclosed location” in the US.
Here’s one:
Middle East Reformed Fellowship
MERF is reaching Muslims and others through gospel broadcasts, web sites, and literature in the Arabic, Farsi, Dinka, Nuer, Amharic, Oromo, Somali, Javanese, Sundanese, Bugis, Makassar and Toraja languages. In each country, growing numbers of non-Christians are responding, expressing serious interest in the liberating truth of the Gospel.
http://www.merf.org/
Christian evangelization has brought amazing numbers of Chinese, Africans, Arabs, Persians and Pacific Islanders to knowledge of the God of the Bible AND to love of his People, the Jews.
As Spengler has written, Europe of the future will be Black and Christian: many will be evangelical Christians who see Jews as their cousins in the Faith.
Joan,
I believe that Spengler was referring to Africa. I have written about the rapid growth of Christianity in Africa and the so-called Global South, myself:
http://www.amazon.com/Christian-State-Gene-Schwimmer/dp/098157100X/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1322928455&sr=1-1
Thanks for the info on MERF.
Gene
Gene:
Your book looks interesting…Lebanon was at one time considered the Christian State in the ME… but Muslims do not play well with others.
My reference to a Black Christian Europe was taken from a comment by Mr. Spenglar on Dennis pPrager’s show when he was being interviewed for his book “How Civilizations Die.” He described a future Europe which will be a theme park for Greek-Roman civilization, when there will be few Italians in Italy and few Greeks in Greece (as well as few Spaniards in Spain). When asked, “who will inhabit Europe ?” his reply was that it will be inhabited by Africans currently fleeing their continent (who comprised most of those fleeing Libya recently) and that Europe will be black and Christian.
It is astonishing, but that’s what he stated. Mr Goldman ?
Joan,
In the context, I can see what Goldman is driving at, though I can’t necessarily agree; I tend to put more stock in Bernard Lewis’s prediction that Europe will be majority-Muslim by the end of the 21st century. I hope anti-aging science advances far enough for me to be there at the time to find out!
You are indeed correct that Lebanon was created (by France) as a Christian state and in fact, I discuss this (and think you would find the full discussion interesting) in my book. But in a nutshell, the Christian Lebanese erred fatally when, rather than seeking to establish their state only in the areas where they were the majority, the Maronites, overreached, asking the French for significant additional Muslim-majority land – which the French foolishly gave them. With so many Muslims incorporated into Lebanon, it was only a matter of time until Muslims became the majority. I don’t know, but would not be surprised to learn that Israel learned from the Maronites’ mistake and are determined not to repeat it.
Incidentally, Lebanon was one of five states created in the area at the same time as Lebanon in the years after World War I. Four of them soon joined together to form what became modern Syria, while Lebanon stayed independent. So if you’ve been wondering why Syria meddles so heavily in Lebanon, now you know: Syria views Lebanon as a “rebel province” that rightfully belongs to Syria.
You apparently haven’t heard of Father Botros, whose story is here:
http://www.jihadwatch.org/2008/09/al-qaeda-declares-coptic-priest-zakaria-botros-one-of-the-most-wanted-infidels-in-the-world.html
With the internet AND shortwave radio this could and probably is being done from environs as safe as De Moines Iowa. However, I suspect that within Israel this could be done and NO ONE would bat an eye.
The academic postulation that Islam is morally equivalent to Judeo/Christian ethics, tied to romantic affection for any revolution against tyranny and the ignorant assumption that democracy will be embraced by those who cling to tribal allegiance and theocracy. along with the absurd conclusion that, since the urban elite used cell phones, the masses were enlightened, created the wild euphoria of the “Arab Spring” and was adopted as our Middle East foreign policy. Now we should cut our losses because it would be an obscenity to provide military or any other aid to an Islamic government. So millions of Egyptians will starve along with those other North Africans already starving in the Sudan, and a compassionate US, consumed by kindness, will be expected to send billions in aid to help those suffering from Islamic rule. Most of that aid will go to the Islamist ruler’s Swiss bank accounts. So the unending circle goes on. China and Russia will not involve themselves in North African matters. Like Islam, they don’t care who starves, even in their own country. Reduces the overhead.
This is exactly why the Founding Fathers decided that staying out of foreign affairs was the best course for our Republic. but that was 250 years ago. What did they know? We’ve so enlightened ourselves, and enriched ourselves, that we have come to believe that being nice trumps Liberty and that we should distribute our wealth even to those who are Audaciously determined to change our Constitution, or even to those who would kill us.
Related to atimes.com where you publish your writings.
I was reading an old article of you (You say you want a reformation?, http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Front_Page/EH05Aa01.html), and I found that at the very bottom of the article, below the “Privacy and Legal Policies”, there were two sex related invisible links. Move the cursor to that area and you will see.
You might want to tell atimes that looks their webserver is rooted.
Vilmos
I think the odds are far better that America will simply bail out Egypt with a flood of half-imaginary dollars, same as we just promised to do for the EuroZone.
And like the Euro-socialists, Whoever is running Egypt will go right back to their old tricks until next time.
Arabs.
The only possible way, to ever get this part of the world into some kind of resemblance of sanity, is, if we somehow trick them into adopting a constitution that separates church and state completely – no mention of Islam or any other kind of religion what so ever.
Constitutions have the power and almost magical ability to transform people’s mentality over time. It might take 1 or 2 generations. But if they have Sharia in their constitution, it will never happen.
This is a one time opportunity. And if the US administration squander this golden moment, that opportunity will not come back.
Separating arabs from their “church” – that’s like separating a baby from its mother’s tit. Good luck.
Well, what should one expect, considering that most of the people in Egypt follow the corrupt ‘prophet’.
The U.S. went to Afghanistan and burned bibles. Was there some goal other than complete failure? We could have liberated the primitives there from the enslavement of that mass psychopathy known as Islam, but no. Our generals go there and kiss the Koran and at Guantanamo they handle that mad tome with white gloves. We’ve become as crazy as they are.
Egypt is looking like a cross between Germany in 1919 and Zimbabwe today. On the one side, a totally non-functional government with a fairly powerful military trying to “keep the lid on” as street-level politics reaches a crescendo. On the other side, an economy which has basically tanked, with those in positions of power in the bureaucracy grabbing whatever they can reach with both hands.
When the dust settles, we are probably looking at a Muslim Brotherhood dominated, Islamist state for a long time to come. Which seems to be the coming trend in the Arab world. Not because the MB has any real ability to make things better (they don’t), but because they have a simple explanation for all the ills. That being, it’s all the “infidels’” fault.
And of course it’s all because of Israel, according to them. And they have a solution. Get rid of Israel.
We are headed for another round of wars in the Middle East, and it’s mostly because of a combination of the fundamental shortcomings of the Islamic culture, and the failure of the West’s elites’ to admit that those shortcomings even exist. They were, and are, too busy blaming the rest of us. Especially Israel.
I wonder if they’ll finally admit that Islam’s problems are mainly Islam’s own fault when they find themselves on the receiving end of a full-blown jihad, right along with the rest of us?
clear ether
eon
Ah yes, there is a problem. No matter what bad things happens, Israel will be blamed.
Western “elites” simply accept the version of whomever is quickest to use violence against them. Just like not accepting nazis version of events meant getting beat up in the street the same was true for communist stories, and now muslims version of events.
It will not be a surprise what happens. They will side with the genocidal muslim. I suggest reminding any muslim you know who has half a brain to look at what happens now “allah guides egypt”. Let’s see.
The great thing : they all lost. All of those ideologies supported by western “elites”, religion or not, lost when allied with those “progressive” cowards. The actions of the religion are open for all to see, and it has a limited time to prove itself. It will fail. It will fail in flames and in destruction, in disaster, but it will fail.
For religions to stand half a chance are those that provide for solutions : hard work, strong ethics, big on science. And frankly, there’s only one of those. It will win big.
But as for “progressive” opinion : when predicting the actions of cowards, looking at the cowards themselves will only confuse things.
What did we expect? It doesn’t matter what the government format is, they’re all at it! We just hide it better here, that’s all.
Dear Dr. Bones,
¿Don’t you wish *you* could quote Al Dente the way his freelordship can?
Allow me, sir, to wish you
Highbrow days.
Jimmy (who) Carter gave us Mullas &IRAN
Barak Obama gave us Muslim Brotherhood/Salafis EGYPT.
God help us.
This is Hilary Clinton’s arab spring and face of democracy. She and Obama were overjoyed by this Islamic uprising which put the most radical Islamists in power. Clinton was instrumental in sending the American air force to Serbia in order to kill Christians who stood in the way of the new Islamic Kosovo criminal political entitiy. Egypt now is what Obama wants the former USA to be.
“Theft on the grand scale from central banks is nothing new in the Muslim world. Last September, “Mahmoud Bahmani, the head of Iran’s Central Bank, denied rumours that $2-billion has already been transferred out of the country as part of a $3-billion embezzlement,” for example. The al-Wafd report has some credibility, considering that the Egyptian military dismissed all the central bank’s outside directors in October, leaving no-one but political appointees.”
You’re kidding me, right? You are surprised that there is corruption in an Egyptian or arab government? These people literally INVENTED corruption thousands of years ago. They are not about to change, now. But when corruption gets to a scale where it actually harms the common people in the country, then you have problems. I have no doubt that if Mubarak, Gaddafi, Saddam Hussein, and perhaps even the Shah of Iran (although he was Persian, but not that much different) were just a little less corrupt, gave more back to their own people, and maintained a solid friendship with the west, they would still be in power today. The King of Jordan is probably a good example of that, although Mubarak’s friendship with the west didn’t seem to help him that much in the end, especially with Obama and Clinton. Greed always pulls them down, even though, as in Iran, the regime that replaces them is usually just as corrupt as they were.
With all due respect,these corruptions always come under Islamic laws and where Islam rules. Iran under the Shah was totally different. A secular nation and a secular government free of Islam and the corruption then was as few as you can find anywhere else in a Western country. Any official suspicious of corruption came under investigation and if found guilty paid the due fine or even jailed.
Iran after this barbaric Islamic regime will once again become a secular nation in the tradition of its thousands of years of history. Let’s hope for that. We Iranians do not like to call this terrorist regime that has occupied our land and our people Iran, but we call it its own true name: Islamic Regime. We will get our land Iran back from these mafia bunch of Islamic terrorist thugs.
As long as Obama is President, the Mullahs will stay in power. Obama supports the Mullahs, everyone knows this.
It would be wise for the reformers in Iran to go back to the old name Persia, as it was called for at least 3000 years. The father of the last Shah was an ally of Adolf Hitler and in 1937 changed the name of Persia to “Iran,” to make clear the connection to the Aryan race that Hitler pushed (the Aryas were the largest group in Persia).
I was in Egypt in the mid eighties- the first word I learned was “Baksheesh”, and heard that word many times a day for almost 2 weeks.
One of those Iranian bankers is now happily living in Canada, in a very upscale part of Toronto, I believe.
an uncontrolled kleptocracy, in which public officials steal whatever isn’t tied down. (Solyndra, OneUnitedBank, ACORN/SEIU)
Shiploads of diesel fuel, and other tradables are leaving Brazilian ports for hard-currency markets, while the country–which imports half its energy consumption–runs out of money. Al Gore’s elite has helicopters revving on their roofs. Soros and Petrobras get funded…North Dakota not so much. Whom do we expect to vote for?
allegations of massive corruption at the country’s central banking system, the cooked books at Fannie and Freddie, a Cloward-Piven strategy to overwhelm the system. There are claims that central banking architects exercised one party rule over the country’s banking system through cronies in all the central bank’s major departments. The central bank’s reserves, Fannie and Freddie books are unaudited and subject to the personal control of the central finance overseer…Barney Frank, who abused his position to enrich political allies of the far leftists.
It seems we want the Egyptians to choose their leaders wisely….um…like…um…we do.
All they have left is hope and change. And a chance to be lead from behind.
Not a good idea to bend over when you are being lead from behind, however.
All these financial shenanigans & corruption in a country whose “law” decrees that charging interest on a loan is usury.
Loans are made under Islamic law, but instead of interest, there is a “fee” for the loan.
A delicate distinction, to put it mildly.
It would be an obscenity to provide military (or any other aid) to an Islamist government.
I agree.
But you can expect clamoring from Islamist supporters in the US to step in to set Egypt’s new mess aright.
6. Gene Schwimmer. It is not exactly “Radio Free Christianity” but there is Al Karma TV, http://alkarmatv.com/, that broadcasts the Christian message to the Arab speaking world. They are centered in the USA, but they do have an Internet channel that is probably viewable around the world.
“Let us not speak of them, but look, and pass on.” Good luck with that bit of wishful thinking. This pot is going to boil over, with a key US ally on its border. Egypt is a debacle because Obama never had a ghost of plan for what came next. He will now try to cozy up to the new regime by pouring borrowed US money — the only kind we have — down the Egyptian rat hole.
It will be interesting to see what the Arabist State Dept. does at the behest
of their paymasters the Saudis. It is interesting to see the Arab Moslem world
marching back to the 6th century. Even Iran will run out of money supporting
the various factions.
Great article.
Of course, wherever there is Islam, there will be corruption, terror, under the belt trash talk, fatwa, theft, invasion, murder, assassination, the list goes on.
Reading both Amil Imani and Robert Spencer’s blogs and we get all the education we need.
Govt corruption is the greatest threat to any nation. See whats happening in Russia and China. And its getting worse here. (I was particularly impressed
with the Indian farmer who released 200 cobras at his local tax office for
demanding bribes to do their jobs). Economist H. DeSoto has spoken of the importance of rites of real proprty to have a functioning capitalist economy.
Interestingly Egypt was one of his examples of it not working.
[N]on ragioniam di lor, ma guarda e passa is from Dante’s Divine Comedy.
I’ll bet you’ll never guess who the Obama appointed UN ambassador to Belgium blames for Jew hatred though.
Via HotAir
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4156355,00.html
Wow!!! Thanks for the link. It shows the same garbage that the dumbo left has been shoving down people’s throats for a century. I hope that at one point people wake up, stop being herds of sheep following what seems to be in vogue, wise up, read both ancient and modern history but not in our intellectually corrupt mafia controlled colleges, and free themselves from the yoke of ignorance.
And…Shiraz…Leon Panetta just told Israel to “get to the damn table”.
(also Via Hot Air)
Of course, “we have your back”…but, “YOU JEWS are the problem” seems to be the Middle East slogan for this administration.
How is it garbage? The number one thing Muslims in the middle east complain about in this regard is Israel and this is acknowledged and gnawed over in posts at PJM. Suddenly it’s not? I’m confused. You yourselves carry this banner yet furl it up for some reason if someone besides yourselves do it?
Regrettably, what Egypt’s population lacks in comparison to Iran is not only oil.
Jihad in deed! The most they can manage would be to create a health hazard: they simply lack the resources.
Someone is going to have to prop the place up, or they will get very hungry. I think Islam should carry that one, what with their call to charity and so forth.
Actually the West will keep pumping money in with a Greek Chorus singling about how worse will follow if we do no support our local Salafists.
At some point the well will run dry, at some point the world will not want or be able to support all the needy Egyptians Paks and so forth. When that happens, sooner or late, the West will not be met with war, but the silence of the dying and dead.
With the Muslim Brotherhood taking over Egypt and Lybia, what will prevent them from joining forces combining what is left of Egypt’s military and Lybia’s oil wealth?
It appears that our Administration has something in common with theirs. Give ours a little more time & they may surpass their islamic brothers. For all we know they may already have.
“A new book by an economics reporter at Egypt’s al-Wafd party’s newspaper alleges massive corruption at the country’s central bank. Reviewed in al-Wafd newspaper today, the book by Mohamed Adel Ajmi claims that central bank chief Farouk Abd El Baky El Okdah exercises one man rule over the country’s banking system through cronies in all the central bank’s major departments. The central bank’s reserves, Ajmi claims, are unaudited and subject to the personal control of the central bank governor, who abused his position to enrich political allies of deposed Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak.”
A minor change of names from Farouk Whatever to The Bernank and the Fed Boys, along with the deletion of the “enrich political allies,” makes the paragraph sound like our reality in the banking and finance sector of the good, old US of A.
Mr. G. thanks for this fine piece of print….I read every comment and there is a lot of real brain power in these lines….Wow I was so shocked, and pleased to hear about Mr. Schwimmer suggesting the Gospel of my Ywh, Jesus Christ, be sent into these Arab lands….Sir, you are onto the real thing, Only my Yh, Jesus Christ [Messiah} can change a human being from a savage animal to a good person….You Jewish are very smart, and I, a Christian will live and DIE for the Source of all knowledge, Israel….May each and every one of you good people be blessed with that same Spirit that Breathed the breath of life into Adam and Eve…Let us all pray for the PEACE of Jerusalem….Jimi Belton
Jimi,
Thanks for the kind words and interesting thoughts and let me take this opportunity to clarify that when I suggested a “Radio Free Christianity,” the Christianity I meant was the Christianity of America – the true Christianity that understands what the American experience has proved (and that you express so well): True Christianity, as opposed to the mile-wide-inch-deep “Christianity” of Europe and Scandinavia, coexists with and complements Judaism, to the benefit of both.
Imagine how different the Middle East would be if only, somehow, Israel’s neighbors could get and internalize that (Christian) message!
Thank you Mr. Schwimmer, We both Pray for the same thing….G0d bless you…Jimi
Egypt ends up like Somalia. Hum, I’m trying to imagine Somalia with a functioning Abrams 1a tank production line, as with Egypt, and a bunch of left behind impoverished colonels with scores to settle. Looks grim, and I understand Turkey is not to far behind the Egyptians. Well, fortunately the Egyptian Arab government looking at being broke in three months are not like the interwar militaristic Japanese when they discovered they would be out oil in five years due to the US embargo and sent their fleet to Pearl Harbor.
Trust me, that Abrams line will not be functioning long without Western experts. That is the common fate of any high-tech industry in Egypt since Mehmet Ali (half of the 19th century).
I predict a mildly positive future for Egypt, unlike Mr. Goldman. The next president of the United States will need to take the military aid and convert it to economic assistance. David does not mention that much of the Egyptian economy is underground. That will of necessity expand. David knows that underground commerce is untaxed, making it far more profitable. Somalia has some taxation via the war lords, but the people get by because they do not have to suffer the massive cut off the top taken by most governments. Western style government is an inefficient means of organizing society. The clans can do a better job without the overhead of marginally productive jobs. The clans can provide social services, if they can just overcome the impetus to steal. Indeed, the clans can become the equivalents of the state divisions of the United States. Their history of inter-clan rivalry sometimes leading to war can be converted to 1800s type merchant-type activities. At least that is the theory. If Egypt does not fall into a Darwinian macabre celebration of the survival of the fittest. That would be a true revolution.
Let’s all live long enough to see what happens.
I have some experience with underground economies (I produced some studies of Latin American underground economies in the late 1980s and early 1990s). In general it is NOT true that underground economies are more profitable, because in general they are entirely uncapitalized (without property rights small businesses can’t attract capital). They are extremely labor intensive and low-skilled for the most part. There are exceptions (underinvoiced exports of Italian manufacturers) but these do not apply to Egypt. The last wave of national bankruptcies in the 3rd World involved commodity producers and net food exporters who borrowed when prices were high and defaulted when prices were low — but food was always plentiful. National bankruptcy in a country that imports half its food is an entirely new phenomenon.
I realize that blogs are a free expression of opinion, but Google allows one to check the standard literature quickly, and a few minutes on Google will substantiate my point.
This is not meant to be a hand grenade in the theater, but…
Based on my travels in ME and East Africa, plus friends and neighbors here who are immigrants from those areas I offer…
As many above note, there is a need to grow the economies of most MENA nations beyond pumping oil. That usually involves productive work. Yet, the culture in most of the region establish men as consumers and women as workers. This would be OK if the women were allowed to be trained to do more than manual labor, but they are not. In Uganda (selected because of experience this week) men are chastised by their peers for doing any work “can’t you get a woman?”. The men are satisfied with a couple of meals a day and lots of chit chat.
I found the same in the Gulf. Men work a little more, wherein they direct others, the most satisfying type of work. When a little prosperity comes their way, they cut back, put their women to physical work (at whatever level is permitted by local imam) and spend endless hours at the tea shop.
I admit my info is limited, but economic growth ultimately means real goods and real services, and I just don’t see it happening…for example, why isn’t a place like Egypt taking China head on with low cost manufacturing. Hell if I know…
Just sayin’
ta
I have never understood why simple theft is punished harshly under sharia, so that a simple villager can lose a hand for stealing a bicycle, but a corrupt official can, with impunity, steal enough to have a Mercedes, a villa, and a Swiss bank account. Not only is stealing forbidden, but piracy, banditry, and raiding are not.
In the Express Tribune Khaled Ahmed writes:
“There is little consciousness of ethic in us because of the way we understand our religion. It deals with piety through worship. Once attained, piety is supposed to ensure ethical conduct. Therefore, religiosity is what we emphasise and practise it to make others believe that we also observe ethic. ”
However he realizes,
” Ethic has nothing to do with worship or religious morality. It is described by work and work is described by contract. Simply put, if you are selling a bottle of pills and the label on the bottle says there are a hundred pills in it, then this label is your contract. If the pills are short by any number, you have breached your contract. You are thus guilty of unethical behaviour.”
So you don’t really have to be ethical, if you’re a Muslim (at least in Pakistan) you can use your visible piety as a substitute or fake while you rob your fellows blind and commit crimes to your heart’s content. You can’t do wrong because of your piety, which you either practice for real or pay others to say you do, so whatever choices you make are the “right” ones.
Ernie G. Sharia law permits and Islam encourages piracy, banditry, raiding and rape AGAINST NON MUSLIMS. It is a primary source of income and part of the reason there is little work ethic among the men. (Rape is especially important in that is satiates those unable to afford a wife with mutilated genitals).
Since brigandry (sp) is a major part of traditional Islam, it is never explained what happens when all are muslim. Then women slave in fields, men drink tea, pray and create new muslims.
Then, having run out of infidels, they kill each other.
ta
http://pjmedia.com/richardfernandez/comment/185932/
http://pjmedia.com/richardfernandez/comment/185932/
I’d be curious to get David’s take on the Return of the Reich, if this is, like Turkey’s moves (and adventurism in Syria, plus hysterical threats?) a question of Germany once again feeling time is against it and it needs to make certain moves sooner rather than later and not let the EU debt krizis go to waste.
On the other hand, I doubt the Small Wars Journal author understands just how insolvent many of the top German banks are reported to be, including Commerzbank which Zerohedge reports is seeking a full blown BOA-style bailout rescue.
The heart of the matter, from a ‘Spenglerian’ POV:
http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/toward-a-gentler-kinder-german-reich
On the energy front, Germany’s Russia policy is rapidly leading to an energy “Finlandisation” of Europe. Germany has favored Russian schemes over the EU-sponsored Nabucco pipeline, and Berlin’s recent (and unilateral) decision to abandon nuclear activity makes Germany more dependent than ever on Russian energy. What makes German policy all the more dangerous is that, if the alternative for Europe on the energy front was to become a choice between, so to speak, Islamization by the Middle East or Finlandization by Russia, Europeans would be “naturally” inclined to chose the latter and follow Germany’s lead (if only because the Russian people don’t emigrate en masse to Europe.)
There is a good amount of shale gas under EU countries, rivaling what is now being tapped in the US and Canada. What is needed is for the necessary cultural, political and economic will to produce it. One would think that after Operation Barbarossa, launched with the goal of seizing Russia’s oil fields, this would be a slam dunk on The Continent.
http://www.economist.com/node/21540256
LOL the Islamists are left by default??? Really? Do you believe that crap..Problem is the Muslims have driven out every or religion and with Islam you MUST participate, no Christian, no Jew would ever be elected..why???INFIDELS…that is why Islam is what is left when it has destroyed and run out every other religious group. Then when thinks collapse the Islamic Holy men then point fingers at others…it’s the Jews (yeah they were run out of the area over centuries) People forget that the Arabs/Muslims loved Hitler..and wanted to form concentration camps to get rid of Jews…terrible things go on with Islam. Now Egypt is broke, people stealing it blind (Muslims) and now they will have to point the finger..so look at Israel, you got stuff and they will blame you and the USA…