I’m serious. Just as it is becoming clear that Barack Obama’s presidency is floundering, the stock market is beginning to rise. If you look back at when it really started to tank, that tracks pretty closely with the moment it looked as if he might win the job. This morning it looks pretty bad for Barack and his spending programs and the market is jumping:
The White House is being forced to acknowledge the wide gap between its once-upbeat predictions about the economy and today’s bleak landscape.
The administration’s annual midsummer budget update is sure to show higher deficits and unemployment and slower growth than projected in President Barack Obama’s budget in February and update in May, and that could complicate his efforts to get his signature health care and global-warming proposals through Congress.
The release of the update – usually scheduled for mid-July – has been put off until the middle of next month, giving rise to speculation the White House is delaying the bad news at least until Congress leaves town on its August 7 summer recess.
Gridlock is clearly ahead. The market likes that – and it should. Also today we find Romney already tied with Obama in a putative 2012 battle in a Rasmussen Poll. That keeps up and I may even go back into the market myself. [Don't be an idiot.-ed. Okay, okay. Fool me once, etc....]
Roger, I had the same thoughts last week….great minds…..
The markets have long expressed a preference for divided government and legislative gridlock–the conditions that prevailed from 1980-2000. Business decision makers detest the uncertainty (and lack of accountability for unintended consequences) that follow from any regime of bold initiatives, no matter what their origins. The pushback is therefore hardly surprising. That’s the essential genius of our system.
“Roger, I had the same thoughts last week….great minds…..”
I have long contended that the stock market will go up—only if Barack Obama fails in his goals to change America. He has greatly damaged the economy. George W. Bush was bad enough, but he was just a born again Herbert Hoover imitator. Obama is a full blown clone of Franklin D. Roosevelt, perhaps the most economically destructive president in our nation’s history.
It seems that I rightfully predicted that Obama will now be a marginalized president. His exalted role in domestic affairs may effectively be over. We should worry about Obama’s mental health. I expect him to experience a breakdown before the end of his term. Do any credentialed professionals agree with my pessimistic prediction? It would be interesting to find out.
Obama has such a huge ego that he will NEVER have a breakdown.
Gridlock is good. The worst excesses inflicted against our economy and political system have come from either bipartisanship or an overwhelming majority.
Nobody with a vested interest in extending government power will ever admit it, but the driving engine of America is the private sector. The more government steps aside – or is otherwise preoccupied – the better free enterprise works making things better for everyone.
So please, bring on the gridlock.
It was, what? Two weeks ago that everyone on the Right was bemoaning the irreversible loss of the nation to Obama and the Dems? Now, because of a falter in the polls for a week or two and some waffling Dems on Capitol Hill, suddenly the storm has passed? I don’t think so.
Remember, the stimulus bill passed the Senate with 60 votes because they threw three Republicans little pork bones. Now that the distinguished Senator from Minnesota has arrived, and Spector has officially abandoned the party, they don’t need Republicans to pass legislation. Sure, they are getting complaints from home, but how much palm greasing will it take to bring 10% or 20% of the Republicans in the Senate around to supporting a “modified” cap-and-trade or health care fiasco?
Sure, it now looks like the current versions of both bills are doomed for the moment. But they will resurrect them in nearly as destructive form, coopting the Snowes and Grassleys, passing something just horrendous enough that they can also call “bipartisan,” and then enacting changes to that in the next two years or so. It will be less dramatic and take a little more time, but they still have a great chance to get their way. They still have the media, too.
It’s great to see a few percentage points drop in Obama’s polls and imagine a GOP landslide of real, conservative Republicans coming in and straightening things out in 2010. But the American voter has not demonstrated a keen grasp of reality in the past year. I remain very skeptical they are capable of putting responsible people of either party in office. And there are too many well-monied interests behind socialized medicine and cap-and-trade for them to simply go away. I think we are seeing a mere wobble now, now a sea change.
I hope I’m wrong.
I hope so too, Victor.
Still, you can be sure those budget numbers they’re hiding are none too pretty. “Transparecy and O!pen Government”, my ***.
Make that ‘transparency’
Victor # 6, I’m afraid you are 100% correct. Obama has good days and bad days. Most of the time he has good days. The media will NEVER turn on him and as Victor has pointed out, there’s plenty of ways to get the Congress to cooperate. Some form of health care monstrosity will pass eventually, once the proper amount of grease is applied.
Obama’s ratings in the polls have dropped but he still has a long way to go to get to Bush’s numbers. I bet he’s wishing that the Republicans run an uptight stiff like Romney, who also happens to practice a faith that many Americans regard as kookie (unfair, I know).
We might get lucky if Hillary decides to break ranks. Obama sure has been “diss’n” her lately. Perhaps she can create enough mischief within the party to permit a Republican to win.
Believe it or not the stock market went up 56% during the Carter debacle so why shouldn’t it go up during the Obama catastrophe?
Not sure about that stock market average for the Carter administration. The Dow Jones was all of 2 points different from where it was four years after Carter left office (something like 970 in Jan. 1981 from 968 in Jan. 1977). There are other measures of stock market performances, but the Dow shows stagnation (after a serious drop in the late 70s).
Notice this little announcement:
“he release of the update – usually scheduled for mid-July – has been put off until the middle of next month, giving rise to speculation the White House is delaying the bad news at least until Congress leaves town on its August 7 summer recess.”
That is really, really, really, really bad for We The People. Besides not telling the American people how bad the economy is just yet (so much for “transparency”), he also is pushing for socialized medicine before the August recess. It’s pretty obvious the economy is so bad, they don’t think they can ram the health care bill through once people see the official numbers.
I’ve also has that same thought about the market for a couple of weeks now.
Some other interesting numbers are that voter turnout was actually higher in percentage terms in 2004. The increase in registrations of young people and minorities who voted for Obama appears to have been offset by a decrease in turnout among older white voters unhappy with the choice of candidates. So far the new voters have not showed up in various municipal elections and primaries. Will the older voters show up in 2010 and 2012? I suspect they will. Some people have to learn the hard way that not voting is a default vote for the worst candidate.
In Barry in Your Pocket’s shell game it’s “delay for me, but not for thee”:
“We can’t afford the politics of delay and defeat when it comes to health care — not this time, not now.”
The urgency. It burns!
I noticed at the time that the more it looked like Obama might win, the worse the markets did. Maybe they think that Pelosi will be gone in a year and a half and that makes them happy. I know I like the idea.
Roger–There is an alternative explanation for the rising market. Whether Obama serves four years and the Congress remains with the Democrats, or whether the House shifts in 2010 and Obama finds himself as mentee of Jame Earl Carter, there is another fact which influences the stock market.
Inflation is the same as the erosion of the value of money. It is as if the yardstick gets shorter. So oil has a world value which changes somewhat because of world demand and supply, but it changes big time because the quoted price is (at least currently) demoninated in USD. If a barrel costs $60 and the value of the dollar shrinks to 1/2, oil will be $120, all other factors being equal. (Your old buddy ceteris paribus)
Same with stocks. Stocks do not increase in supply in accordance with demand. Rather corporations try to hold stock supply in shares mostly steady. All by itself, that creates upward bias (suggest you interview George Soros or Warren Buffett). But meanwhile the yardstick is getting shorter. Ergo, stock prices go up. The greater the prospect of inflation, the more the need for higher prices in stocks. Stocks are only a claim on the corporate earnings. And, those earnings are measured in the shorter and shorter yardstick of the USD.
Palmer.
Palmer, I recently read something about the “Gold Dow” – i. e. the DJI denominated not in realtive dollars (as it is now) but in the value of gold. It sounds like you’re talking about the same thing, just a different and maybe more relevant mineral.
And there are too many well-monied interests behind socialized medicine and cap-and-trade for them to simply go away.
It is interesting to see the Big Pharma ads for the Obama plan on TV. They think they have cut a deal with him. Ditto for the AMA (I quit years ago) which is always out for the best interests of the Board of Trustees, most of whom are GPs trying to find a well paid job with an insurance company so they can quit medicine. I am amused by people who think the AMA runs US medicine. It has become a parasite with less than 40% membership. Watch for all the rent-seekers to join the parade. Al Gore will be a billionaire as long as this cold spell doesn’t get worse. The Midwest is complaining about a cold summer. That’s his big worry. Snow in August will sink cap and trade with all those Midwest senators.
“It is interesting to see the Big Pharma ads for the Obama plan on TV. They think they have cut a deal with him. Ditto for the AMA (I quit years ago) which is always out for the best interests of the Board of Trustees, most of whom are GPs trying to find a well paid job with an insurance company so they can quit medicine.”
What all these guys are forgetting is that when you make a deal with the devil, you are the junior partner. They’ll figure that out when Obama has them over a barrel and they can’t do a thing about it.