It used to be when a Writers Guild strike was looming it meant a lot to me personally. Now my livelihood comes from other places, so after forty years with the Hollywood needle in my arm, I am relieved, for once, that it’s not me whose ox is about to be gored (or could be).
But that doesn’t stop me from observing the situation, which seems more dire than I can remember, even than those several times we writers actually went out on strike and paraded around the studios with picket signs, producer friends allegedly sending their assistants out to ply us with copious lattes (that never happened to me).
This time there is a genuine atmosphere of fear in the air because the Industry may be dying – and then what? What good will come of a strike? It could be that the producers really want one, because they don’t know what to do either. The AP article linked above is pretty thin and doesn’t give you much of an idea of what is going on. We are in the era of YouTube and the whole economic model has been thrown into the air. A lot of people could be drastically affected by this – a whole “town.” And I’m not just talking about the “personal trainers” and other objects of derision toward Hollywood. I’m talking about a house of cards crumbling.
Wait…Hollywood still employs writers? Really?
Based on what I’ve seen coming from that town in recent years, I thought they used a computer program running on an Apple II to generate random plots, characters, and dialogue.
I am hoping that Hollywood is destroyed. Movies will still be made in other areas of the United States. How much longer, if nothing else, will investors tolerate the making of films premised on leftist ideology that attract few ticket buyers? The Hollywood studios have too much in common with General Motors and other troubled industries. Their day in the sun is over.
At least the picket signs will be more interesting than usual…
I once spent a week going to movies at a film festival, and was VERY impressed with the quality of these low-budget movies. You don’t need tens of millions of dollars to tell a good story and make a good movie.Since I attended this festival before digital took over, even less money is needed today to make a good movie.
The previous remark of Hollywood going the way of GM is on the money.
The whole communication/entertainment business is being transformed (ie, Morgan Stanley just dropped its shares in the New York Times), and those who guess right, will be well rewarded. At one time, Vaudeville was where performers went; and then there were silent movies. At one time, every middle class home wanted to have an Encyclopedia… but now, there is google, etc. At one time, I had to depend on the local bookstore to find out what books were available, but now there is Amazon and Alibris.
However, it’s no fun being in the middle of this kind of earthquake.
I went to a movie called “We Own the Night”, with great actors (Phoenix, Duvall, etc), lots of money, plenty of (I assume)top level technicians. Well, some half way through, it felt like we have sat there for 5 hours, and were doomed for another 5 yet to come. It SHOULD have been a good movie, but it wasn’t.
Why?
I have no idea. However, I have noticed that there are excellent products on DVD: they are run on TV and then, people like me buy the ‘season package.’ Take, for example, “The Closer.” “Deadwood.” “Foyle’s War.” “Seinfeld.” “Holmes on Holmes.” “Fawlty Towers.” All are in their different ways wonderful entertainment, and they help me get through an hour of treadmill horror.
Before 9/11, I heard many times at lectures and conferences on Americas place in the rest of the world, that one of the reasons why they hated us then was Hollywood’s movies and its domination of that market. Hollywood and its American brand of the ideal.
If Hollywood’s market share has diminished, what is it now?
Roger –
It’s WORSE than that. Hollywood has (along with Google btw) depended on foreign revenues for about HALF it’s income. This accounts for it’s generally anti-American line (and sacrificing money on the American table to pick it up on the foreign tables).
BUT … WSJ last week had a “Arbitrage” story on the ticket prices for first run movies on Saturday Night. A few European capitals (London, Paris) had averages of twenty US dollars per ticket. Most places though particularly in Asia had prices of $3-4 US Dollars per ticket.
Couple with piracy setting price floors for DVD sales abroad (and at home, eventually) and Wal-Mart, Best Buy discounting and there is no more money coming in. Meanwhile games eat away at Hollywood particularly the young male demo (Halo 3 did something like $130 million revenue first weekend) like the Japanese with GM and Ford and Chrysler in the 1980′s.
I don’t think this is fixable: like Detroit decades of bad management have led to this point and it’s not going to be fixed unless most of the studios go under.
Actually, unlike Hollywood, the Detroit automakers acknowledge that they have to do things differently if they want to compete in the marketplace. Ford’s quality ratings are way up (Consumers Reports, the reflexively anti-Detroit testing organization, even says that they won’t categorically recommend Toyotas anymore because of declines in quality and reliability), Chrysler is restructuring and reassessing its product lineup with talk of discontinuing or redesigning poor sales performers, and GM has returned to profitability and is doing very well in the three fastest growing markets, China, India and Latin America.
Hollywood, on the other hand, keeps trying to sell anti-American crap. The number of movie goers has plummeted. Hollywood obscures this fact by talking about box office receipts, which are grossly inflated by ridiculous prices. $10 to see a movie? Why bother? Wait six weeks, rent it on DVD and watch it at home in HDTV and not have to deal with talkative patrons and overpriced snack food.
TV is another huge wasteland. Except for a few mavericks like The Sopranos or Damages, series look good but have the affect of a soporific. The major networks offer almost nothing.
Remember when the new media was cable, and it was going to be commercial-free and full of original, superior programming, and a hundred bucks a month would be worth it?
Hah!
There are fine writers available–they just aren’t working or are forced to toe the corporate producer’s line.
Hollywood as we know it will be destroyed, as it has in the past, and will reinvent itself… or else. When the anti-US films bomb overseas, as they are now doing, the fat lady has sung her last note.
I agree with all the negative thinking above. Hollywood, as we knew it, is over.
Next.
Meanwhile, in the real world…
The U.S. box office climbed up 5.5% to reach $9.49 billion in 2006.
Worldwide box office reached an all-time high in 2006 with $25.82 billion, an 11% increase.
U.S. theater admissions grew 3.3% to 1.45 billion tickets.
The total number of films released continued to increase in 2006 with 607 films released. This is an 11% increase over 2005′s 549 films.
Source: MPAA’s 2006 U.S. Theatrical Market Statistics Report
Those ‘statistics’ from 2006 may just be the ‘Enron’ way of getting people to believe the industry is flying high on the hog.
Mamet observed Hollywood’s demise years ago when he stated that the industry has lost the art of storytelling to eye-candy crap, audiences are simply sick to death of having to barf-up after consuming Hollywood’s junk food.
Face the facts, the only worthwhile movie to be produced in the last twenty years was “The Lives of Others” and it came from East Germany.
Hollywood is a dead industry.
I am happy the monolith has crumbled.
syn—
You don’t seem to know much about how movie box office numbers are reported. 2006 was a good year business-wise, spin or no spin, and 2007 has been even better. 2007 domestic box office is 6% above where it was a year ago.
As to whether the movies are any good, there are certainly fewer that I like, but then I’m rarely in the target demographic anymore. It’s also the case that whether a movie is going to work or not is rarely known before post-production and, even then, it may not get the box office it merits. Such was certainly the case with the critically-acclaimed and multiple-award-winning The Lives of Others. Is East Germany still a country?
Sequels get made and stars get paid because they’re generally some insurance of a return on investment. The business isn’t just production. It’s also distribution and promotion. As things go, the best bet in the business is still a well-promoted cheap horror flick on opening weekend and, as things go, if you want to work in movies in the United States and Canada, “Hollywood” is still the best place to explore your options.
Box office numbers?
Sure like F 9/11 REALLY was a huge hits; perhaps in specific demographics will the numbers look good. So what if “Jackass’ brings in hoards of 15-25 years olds this doesn’t mean Hollywood is in great shape.
Let’s talk about the losses, how many $30-60 million dollar movies made far less than the cost to produce, much less print and press?
Hollywood inflates everything as a way to appear important, Box Office means nada.
Like Enron the illusion is going to crumble.
That said, Hollywood does go to Canada to make it’s product (something like less than 5% of movies are made in America) in order to avoid the unions and the taxes.
If you want to work in movies (I’m not talking about 1% mega celebrity getting the big bucks) you have to go to Toranto, Canada.
If you want to work in Hollywood, you have to get a job at the popular nightclub.
I agree Hollywood is a cut-throat business worse the Wall-Street and not an ‘art form’, unfortunately many in Hollywood have convinced themselves they’re artists which is why Al Gore is their hero.
No doubt next year the Box Office numbers will be reported high than this years.
Don’t underestimate the worldwide affection for junk, especially but not only in America. I predict Hollywood will continue to remain a good investment. Jackass 3 and Shrek 4 will be made. George Clooney and Mel Gibson will continue to make pretentious big-budget films. Morgan Freeman and Queen Latifah will continue to play saintly black characters. Sacha Baron Cohen will continue to make fun of Arabs and white people. Lots of young girls with boob jobs will become role models and sex symbols for the teens of Generation Whatever. Reality TV, prime-time gameshows and tabloid news will continue to proliferate on TV, and who knows, maybe the big screen as well. Survivor: The Movie, anyone?
All of this will be watched on ultra high definition screens, which we will need to replace our HDTV’s with in a decade or so.
Very little cutting edge work in any medium is coming out of America, not just with films and tv, but books, music, visual art, and just about every other medium. Is the rest of the world as tired creatively? I doubt it. I’ve seen lots of interesting recent films from overseas.
When, and how, did American culture manage to fall into the crapper just as it was being flushed?
Syn:
You really have no idea what you’re talking about, do you? Sorry, but 95% of movies aren’t made in Canada. In 2005 47% of all production dollars were spent in the good ol’ US of A. I suspect that number will rise in 2007 with the decline in the dollar. Runaway production may be a concern to US-based performers, but it really says nothing about the economic viabililty of “Hollywood.” Virtually all those productions are produced written and edited in Los Angeles. And the companies that release them are making more money than ever.
Roger is certainly right about one thing: the changes in technology will prove challenging for the industry. But if you’re going to argue that Hollywood’s house of cards is crumbling, shouldn’t you be able to adduce a single fact that supports that proposition.