An interesting post from Kobayashi Maru.
MEAWNHILE: Bush has reaffirmed his “strike-first” policy. Does he have a choice? I wouldn’t want to be in his shoes at this moment. He knows not to pay attention to the polls. But how could you not?
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“He knows not to pay attention to the polls. But how could you not?”
Easy.
Once upon a time I did some graduate work in statistics and polling. The one thing I learned is that the answers to pollsters questions are determined by the structure of the poll. The issues in constructing the poll (is there any reason to believe that the sample can understand the questions the pollster asks, what order are the questions asked in, are the questions well formulated or ambiguous), sample construction (my wife, who hates to be bothered, is never polled, lots of folks are dropping telephone landlines, many people routinely screen calls with their answering machines), and survey methods (in the 1950s pollsters went door to door, now they just telephone) are insuperable.
Furthermore the psychology of the polling situation is never considered. The answers to poll questions reveal only what the sample thinks will cause the pollster to have the emotional reaction to the sample, that the sample wants to occur. I.e. if the sample wants the pollster to be pleased to talk to the sample, the sample will express opinions that the sample believes will please the surveyor. Because the majority of samples always want to make the pollster happy, they will tend toward bland conventional wisdom, usually derived from the mainstream media.
Or to put it more simply, polls are mirrors that reflect the images pollsters want to see. The only possible conclusion is that polls results tell us a great deal about the pollsters’ weltanschung, and almost nothing about the preferences and beliefs of the sample.
Ignore polls, they are worthless.
W has the right attitude. He’s that rarest of creatures–a politician with cojones. In plain English that translates to Statesman. A lion surrounded by snarling jackals, he refuses to acknowledge he’s a lame duck. Too bad about that pesky 22nd amendment. Nonetheless, I suspect this lame duck will give the jackals plenty to gnash their teeth about during the remainder of his term.
I definitely concur with David’s attitude on the 22nd amendment; a lame-duck President serves nobody well.
There is another factor that is not being discussed. Basically, W is the anti-Ahmadinejad; driven by a singular focus on doing God’s work (W’s own words, mind you). Therefore, the words of men are a distraction if they contradict the Divine purpose. At least this is the only explanation I find compelling regarding his tenacity in the face of so much blind naysaying. Basically, in his mind, the critics do not exist in any real sense. Rather, they are the machinations and trickery of the Satan!
I am sure the president cares about the polls but he acts with his inner compass which basically ignores them as he carries out his job.
A very unique leader.
“Tom” Harken back to those years of Annibus Horriblis, the Age of Bubus Americanus, when Hillary and Bill [or was it Bill and Hillary . . . not sure] carefully listened to Dick Morris, Sid Blumenthal and Mandy Grunwald while the Serbs massacured the Muslims of Srebrennica.
” What are the polls telling us to do, Dick?”
Ahh, leadership how refreshing !!!
I don’t have a great deal of faith in polls, but if it matters the most recent one I have seen on Iran say 58% of the people polled think the president should be prepared to go after the mullahs.
I think Bush does what he thinks he has to. I am sure he would prefer better numbers, but given the current political climate I don’t know that it is realistic for any politician to expect great numbers.
I have a feeling that Karl Rove listens to the polls that he commissions. And that President Bush listens to and considers what Karl Rove has to say.
But, I wouldn’t say that the President governs via polls.
I agree with Keith and Terrye.
Polls say this, polls say that, polls, polls.
It is all you hear on the news. The drumbeat is incessant, the chatter feeds on itself; the more you hear the more you believe the sky is falling on the president right now. But the media has a vested interest is attacking him so that is why the leads on the nightly news are the polls.
This is a lean season for news; the election gurus await the summer and fall so the polls are pumped up and made the story; weekly, the Washpo has an article about how terminal the GOP is with the Senate and the House.
I don’t believe it come election time, it will be a horse race, district by district, state by state, and the president will be campaigning and explaining his side. One must recall the summer of 2004; how near death he looked then and recall what happended by mid September. He was off like a racehorse.
My concern about the polls is that they will spook Republicans and they will do stupid things like the whole Dubai port fiasco. What a bunch of wusses.
I agree with VDH, the reaction to that deal was “real dumb”.
What’s next? Are they going to be laying land mines at the Mexican borders to get to the right of the Minutemen?
They need to ease up and support the President. We are in a war now and the weaker he looks the more vulnerable we all are.
I am sure the terrorists in Iraq are thinking about the polls and midterms too. Let’s see, how many road side bombs and suicide bombers and lynchings do we need to get Bush impeached and someone more to our liking in the WH?…they maybe murderers, but they are not stupid.
My guess is pretty soon there will be more street riots over some invented “slight” and the pundits and politicians will think Bush did not respond strongly enough or whatever…yep, they know how to push our buttons.
The book was “Profiles In Courage”, not “Profiles in Poll-Watching”. I always admired former NY City Mayor Ed Koch for his attitude – “If you don’t like it, don’t vote for me.”
I agree, forget the polls. They don’t come close to reflecting how unpopular this president really is. Imagine Nixon with Fox blaring his innocence 24/7 or consider what Bush’s numbers would be if our corporate media stopped shying away from doing their job. Bush’s numbers are in the tank and as the wall of deceit and secrets around him crumbles, he’ll truly begin to find his true level of support. I’d guess around three percent – that would be you guys. Die hards. Sad sacks. Royalists eager to kiss King George’s hiney.
doug
“consider what Bush’s numbers would be if our corporate media stopped shying away from doing their job.”
Your derangement is highly amusing.
If the “corporate media” went any further left, the only readers they’d have would be the inmates at the DU.
Speaking of which, how’d you get out?
Doug/Jack Armstrong:
It’s customary to dress up a little around your betters.
Bush can’t run again.
So I’m supposed to go out and vote “D” to send the president a message? I live in NY – it can’t get any more “D” here. My rep is a RINO with no serious competition. I don’t much like him but I’m not voting for the sacrificial goat with a “D” after her name to send a message to a lame duck.
I am not particularly a GWB fan. He’s a big spender, and way too soft on immigration and Iran. But he is mostly OK on the WOT. Do you really think I’m going to vote for Hillary?
Remember the Tehran Embassy takeover? Iran’s been at war with us for 30 years and payback is way overdue.
I think Roger ghosted “Profiles in Courage” years ago.
Nothing should ever be “very unique.”
As for Bush doing the right thing, let’s give a little credit to Midland, Texas. This isn’t the man from Kennybunkport. He means what he says, and he’s wise enough to know his consistency will teach the mullahs, the kleptocrats, the Democrats and the mainstream media that he means what he says.
Seems there’s a deal written by Chappaquidick on immigration.
As to big spender, via Bros. Judd:
…At any rate, given that Ms Noonan believes, for some reason, that Ronald Reagan was a conservative and George W. Bush isn’t, it’s perhaps helpful to just compare the two: when Ronald Reagan left office in 1988 he was dunning us 18.1% of GDP to pay for a federal government that spent 21.2% of GDP. In 2004, the last year for which I could find numbers, George W. Bush had lowered our tax burden to 16.3% of GDP– a level last reached in 1959–to pay for a government that spent 19.8 of GDP….
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“consider what Bush’s numbers would be if our corporate media stopped shying away from doing their job.”
Worst economy since Herbert Hoover!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
White unemployment under 5%, black unemployment even lower than Bubba……..
Divvies averaging about $1700 per person a lot into IRAs where it can’t be spent……
Drug costs coming down thanks to Medicare drug program and the eeeevvvvviiillllll Wal-Mart, Canuck drug purchases down approx. 30%.
–Royalists eager to kiss King George’s hiney.—
What does Loony Cloony have to do w/this topic????
He knows not to pay attention to the polls. But how could you not?
Easy Faith, and Term Limits.
Also, Pres. Bush’s perceived weakness could end up being a strength at the mid-term elections.
It’s a honey-pot trap for Democrats.
They can’t help but attacking him more strongly and thinking that the President’s weakness corresponds to strength in their ideals.
They will proclaim those ideals louder and more forcefully and this will inevitably bite them in their braying donkey asses.
The majority of folks in a majority of places in the U.S. recoil at most liberal ideas, the more Democrats forget this, the better for Republicans.
jack:
Bush is not as unpopular as the little lady the Democrats are getting ready to run. Talk about taking the blinders off when are the Demcorats going to figure out that for all their bs they keep getting their butts kicked come election time?