The Big Pharoah reports secular opposition parties get only 3.4% of the seats in Egypt. (Bleak photos too.)
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Good news all around for Hosni Mubarak. He gets the double benefit of (1) making procedural concessions to democracy and (2) demonstrating clearly who might win if Egypt were to actually hold legitimately free and fair elections. The former placates the West, the latter gives them pause about asking for further reforms. After all, who here really wants the Muslim Brotherhood running Egypt? All the while, Hosni is in no danger of actually losing any power.
The status quo is on the march.
Egypt has a ways to go in a few areas, not only democracy.
But they know it now. Elections have a way of clarifying things.
(Muslim Brotherhood got 20% of the seats.)
Shochu John is obviously under the impression that democracy is an event.
Syl,
What in the above statement allows you to draw the conclusion that I think “democracy is an event,” much less that that must be the obvious conclusion. 20% of the seats with Hosni’s people holding virtually all of the rest demonstrates that the MB is the only other gig in town besides the status quo. I am pretty sure most Egyptians are well aware that their country has a long way to go in quite a few areas, and they have a pretty good idea of why they are not making much progress in any of them, and the reason’s name is Hosni. To many, secularism is thusly discredited and Islamism is seen as the only alternative. The more us western types see that, the less appealing an actual Egyptian democracy is, and the less we nag Hosni about it. Personally, I fully support Egyptian democracy, even if the outcome is an Egypt more hostile to our interests.
Shochu
“The status quo is on the march.”
It is likely that democracy in the Mideast will mean that at some point there will be a government elected that we don’t like. My bet is, though, that the people will soon enough find out they don’t like those folks, either, and results will be very different in the election following.
When you are elected, you have to deliver, meaning jobs, education, services, rising income, etc. — not taking away everybody’s satellite dish. I don’t think fundamentalist Islam can deliver what it takes to hold power for long.
Well Syl, you have to admit that when the result of an election, such as it is, is Hosni Mubarak consolidating power, that the status quo really is on the march.
Byron, for your point, I completely agree. In the long term, Islamism is doomed, as is all religious government for that matter. The historical patterns are clear on this one. The world floats definitvely towards less religion and more freedom. People with actual control over their lives feel less and less need to turn it over to a spirit in the sky.