The French… of all people… seem to be rebelling against the EU, at least un petit peu:
France’s political elite was stunned on Friday by an opinion poll that showed for the first time a majority of voters opposed the European Union constitutional treaty.
Jacques Delors, former president of the European Commission, warned of a “political cataclysm” if France voted No to the constitution in a national referendum on May 29.
However, Mr Delors predicted that the Yes campaign, which has only just been launched, would ultimately prevail. “I believe in the good sense of the people. They will not confuse this vote with questions of internal politics,” Mr Delors said in a newspaper interview.
I can’t believe that Delors is wrong because, without a strong EU, France’s waning power would virtually evaporate. And their elites couldn’t be more aware of that. But who knows?
I wonder if has anything to do with the campaign described by Transatlantic Intelligencer:
Emphasis mine. TI fleshes out this pretzel logic in the post.
Not enough. I’m still drinking Australian wine…
Yeah, Roger. Your latest post is delivered to your personal echochamber with all the leaning-on-the-bar complacency of a 19th century Brit. Same hubris.
What about declining US power? Which, after all, is much important than declining French power (old story…)
Compare US growth rates to the Chinese. A Japan redux? You should be so lucky! The Chinese are far too clever for that. It’s not just about cheap goods. Higher end manufacturing, higher technologies, scientific research and development is gravitating eastwards at an ever faster rate.
The dollar is looking increasingly like a joke.
Go to war with China? Not likely – the US govt only picks easy meat these days….
Harry, have you had your coffee yet?
Why go right to the ad hominem? Roger’s done nothing to you. It’s an opinion. Is America not going down the tube fast enough for you or something?
If the EU ever makes it out of infancy, I’ll be surprised. I don’t know how it can be reconciled with human nature. People tend to be covetous of their individuality. They don’t relinquish it easily.
Hi Roger,
I think you have this “…without a strong EU, France’s waning power would virtually evaporate.”
backwards. The “power” of the French evaporates completely in the EU. They just think that they will now own the EU.
The hidden (deliberately in my view) kicker in the EU is this:
“…the EU Member States would constitutionally and legally become provinces within a European Federal State, with their national democracy, sovereignty and political independence abandoned as they agree formally to subordinate themselves to the superior entity, as in any State Federation.”
Entire analysis here:
http://eureferendum.blogspot.com/2004/10/constitution-analysis.html
Apparently, the German Supreme Court has caught on to this too.
The key phrase is “… If a state ceases to protect its own citizens against prosecution by other powers, citizenship will have lost its central function: membership in a community that provides protection in exchange for the payment of taxes. ”
This has to do with extraditing a German to Spain. He’s charged with terrorist connections that occurred NOT in Spain, but, in Germany! At the time this was not illegal in Germany, but, the harmonization of the EU laws gives Spain the right to bring him there for trial!!
This would be like California charging someone with illegal gun possesion cause the person had a legal gun in Arizona.
Entire thing here:
http://rantburg.com/?TINDEX=3&D=3/19/2005#59270
or here:
http://service.spiegel.de/cache/international/spiegel/0,1518,347059,00.html
Coffee? How about his meds too!
Or maybe Harry’s just in a time zone where he’s drowning his cognative dissonance and is seeing the beginnings of a bad hangover.
Sammy ó I wonder if Harry is the same Harry Heidelberg who keeps getting bitchslapped online down in Australia…
Declining US power? Is this the same declining US power from the ’70s, wherein the Japanese were going to eat our lunch? Hasn’t happened yet.
Neither coffee nor his meds will help Harry, he’s already OD’ed on the Kool-Aid.
The declining support for the EU treaty in France is an interesting development. Contrary to what many Americans may think however, the debate is not simply in terms of national sovereignty/local identity versus supranational entity. That is one axis. The other factors are (i) effect on economic liberalism, (ii) uniformity of labor law standards and protections, and (iii) EU counterweight to the U.S. Other than the extremist National Front (on the nominal far “right”) and the Communist and Trotskyite parties, who are anti-European, the pro and anti vote is not along party lines, with the mainstream parties of the center right and the center left being divided.
The French Socialist Party officially supports the EU constitution on the theory that it will lead to a Grande Europe Sociale. However, half of the party – especially the more left-leaning half – is against, in part because they fear a more integrated Europe will undermine labor rights. The governing “right wing” coalition of Gaullists and Neo-Liberals also are officially in favor, especially the neo-liberal UDF (2 to 1 in favor), on the theory that a closer union will lead to a more competitive economically liberal Europe, with many traditionalist Gaullists also attracted to the Franco-German controlled counterweight theory. Again, half of the party – the more right leaning half – is against, in part because of fears of an overbureacratic overregulated mega-labor environment. In other words, elements of the right and the left are voting pro-constitution based on opposite premises.
Another interesting statistic is that fully 53% of French voters express an intention to abstain on a referendum with rather significant institutional implications.
My gut feeling is that the “no” vote will win by 5 to 10 points. That is based on the current trend, with the no having gone from 35% to 50% in a matter of month, as well as the history of the Maastricht treaty vote in 1991. The “aye” vote won out by 51% to 49% after declining from an earlier 2 to 1 margin in opinion polls. With over two months to go before the May 29 vote, it looks to me like the nays will prevail.
Last point: it is not clear to me that an anti-constitution position is in U.S. or global economic and security interests. The U.S. has an interest in an economically, politically and militarily stable Europe. In my view, that means controlling principally French and German and more generally what is called “neo-Gaullist” excesses. I am not sure if that is better accomplished by isolating those countries within a fractured Europe or absorbing those countries into the moderating forces of a larger entity.
Gabriel
Ignore Harry. He is the anti-American wind up doll. No matter what the topic he spouts the same nonsense.
Hi Gabriel,
I think you’re wrong in only one regard.
All the things you mention as addenda to sovereignty are, in fact, PART of the sovereignty issue. That is the over-weening philosophical area that covers everything else. e.g. if labor law is a competency of the EU that becomes an issue of EU sovereignty superceding the sovereignty of the member states. Likewise economic liberalism, US counterbalance (aka military/foreign policy).
Here in the US (don’t know if you’re here or there) we lump all this under the heading of “States Rights” and fought a nasty Civil War over the issue. Europeans should learn from what we went through and try to explicitly deal with these over-lapping sovereignty issues BEFORE you vote on a constitution.
“In fact, a large part of the “leftist” opposition in France to the EU’s proposed “constitutional treaty” (the sponsor of the above sticker calls itself the “Committee for a Leftist ‘No’ to the European Constitution”) – and some of the “rightist” opposition (see Philippe de Villiers) – has known of no better argument against the treaty/”constitution” than to say that it is too “American”.”
The crazy thing about this is that I’ve long believed the EU Constitution and EU itself would fail because they are not American enough. It’s like they decided to not take any lessons from the longest living constitutional republic. Imo, they’ve done everything wrong if they intend to produce a stable political entity.
ìIn fact, a large part of the “leftist” opposition in France to the EU’s proposed “constitutional treaty” (the sponsor of the above sticker calls itself the “Committee for a Leftist ‘No’ to the European Constitution”) – and some of the “rightist” opposition (see Philippe de Villiers) – has known of no better argument against the treaty/”constitution” than to say that it is too “American”.î
ìThe crazy thing about this is that I’ve long believed the EU Constitution and EU itself would fail because they are not American enough.î
I cynically believe that the French are lazy people. They will reject any constitutional treaty that forces them to do more work. Am I being overly simplistic and cruel? No, I donít think so. There is also an outside possibility that a few of my German ancestors are originally from France. I can only hope that this never becomes a proven fact.
The irony is that the European Constitution is not sufficiently American—and yet it may fall apart because it is still too American. The Old Europeans are royally screwed. It is time that we pursue better relations with India, Pakistan, China and the other non-white populations. These people are getting their acts together. Those Old European white dudes and gals may be the ancestors of many of us, but they are still a bunch of losers.
I’m too lazy to look it up, but isn’t the EU ‘Constitution’ a work of some several hundred pages? Perhaps they should take a long look at the K.I.S.S. principal. Make it complicated later if you wish, but start small. I can not imagine a euro citizen reading and being empathetic/inspired by something of that size, which I feel is important, though ‘they’ may not of course.
It is difficult enough to get Americans to read their Constitution, small as it is. Maybe that’s the point, just the ‘leaders’ will know/understand the rights of the people…gee somewhat like the early church. The peasants have no need. OTH it would then resemble ours even more perhaps, guess that wouldn’t work.
Hi David T.
you said “There is also an outside possibility that a few of my German ancestors are originally from France.” I’ve one of those, depending on which was the last war she was either French or German when she came over (German we think)
Luther:
The EU Constitution is several hundred pages. Apparently the main reason is that all of the “laws” included in all current EU/EC treaties are included as constitutional laws. Additionally there is a whole lot of BS having to do with “rights” and caveats.
And France’s new found consciousness is already paying off! Renault’s are leading the Formula 1 world so far this year…..!
Well, I have a sample size of 1 datapoint on the issue. My wife, still a French citizen after 25 yrs in the US, told me this week she is going to vote against the EU constitution. Of course, when I said I thought she was right, she began to reconsider.
Hi Roger,
I was not surprised at all by the poll data concerning France. The ordinary people who make up my friends, colleagues and acquaintances in France are uniformly opposed to or apathetic to the EU constitution and have been since the beginning. As far as I can tell, there is no grassroots support for the EU constitution at all and it’s really surprising that these polls are just now detecting that trend.
10 weeks from now will be the start of the really good beach weather after a pretty miserable winter and what may shape up to be a very wet spring. Will low voter turnout help or hurt? Frankly, I have no idea, but I do recall that it was voter apathy that gave Le Pen his surprise 2nd place win in the first round of the last presidential election.
Roger says: >
And this is what the French truly fear, things out of control of the elites. The constitutional referendum will be presented to not just the elites, but rather everybody in the country. I have long been of the opinion that all the supposed anti-americanism in Europe is purely an elite-driven thing and there are far more normal people inhabiting Euro lands than not. But they make litle noise in day to day life and are not heard from until there is a nationwide vote.
My thesis could be completely wrong, but I think we’ll see more the true nature of these countries by how they vote on the EU constitution. And Chirac won’t be happy…..
ooops
my comment didn’t paste in the sentence by Roger having to do with elite opinion in France.
“…without a strong EU, France’s waning power would virtually evaporate. And their elites couldn’t be more aware of that.”The elites of course, but what does “French Power” have in it for the ordinary French citizen? Does The Glory of France help the economy? Does The Glory of France protect the ordinary person’s interests? Does it protect french values and traditions? Will a 500 page “Constitution” help the ordinary French person or be another way to screw them? Polls after all are supposed to measure “public” opinion.
The Turkish Trojan Horse
If I were France?s Foreign Minister, I would be very wary of American support for Turkey?s EU membership. By calling for the EU to rebuild its military capabilities as a consequence of the U.S. election, Minister Barnier has rightly recognized that the danger of radical Muslims murdering Dutchmen on public streets is not as big a threat to European security as American military power. So if Washington supports Turkey?s EU membership, surely he must understand it is a bad deal for the EU.
It is an unwritten doctrine that as NATO expands, so the EU. First guns, then butter. However, the EU stiff-armed Turkey for decades, insisting on broad reform. Turkey dutifully obeyed but each success was predictably met with another hurdle. In private, the Germans told the Turks that the French were to blame, the French blamed the Greeks, and the finger pointing came full circle. No country dared say out loud the real reason for European reluctance. Europe is petrified over the prospect of eventual open borders with an Islamic nation. Especially one that brings the EU to the doorstep of Syria, Iraq, Iran, Armenia and Georgia. Turkish membership also brings structural, financial, and organizational difficulties that will ensure gridlock on every economic and foreign policy issue the EU chooses to addresses. Given its population and the size of its military (the largest in NATO), the EU weighted majority system for decision-making guarantees Turkey will be one of the EU?s most influential members to the detriment of Old Europe.
But once Turkey demonstrated its willingness to stick its finger in Washington?s eye by refusing to allow coalition forces to invade northern Iraq, it passed France?s test of EU loyalty. The EU decision to begin accession negotiations with Turkey has been announced. But France?s adherence to political correctness and its rush to line up an anti-American coalition might be playing directly into U.S. strategic interests. As we have witnessed in NATO, too much expansion ultimately leads to catastrophic failure. With the admission of Turkey, the EU will not be far behind.