Germany’s leading news magazine Der Spiegel is back on Gerhard Schroeder’s case while again (only two days later) giving high marks to George Bush for his European conduct (earlier pro-Bush Speigel piece here):
But in Bratislava, the similarities between Bush and Schroeder in their approach to Putin ended with the smiles and the backslapping. In fact, it was the subtext of the US-Russia meeting that was most interesting — a subtext absent from Russia-Germany get-togethers. Bush, as it happened, had spent the weeks leading up to the Slovakian summit firing off frequent admonishments to Moscow. He is concerned about the course Putin is steering and let the world know about it.
Schroeder? Aside from a meek, privately issued hand slap delivered by telephone during the Ukraine election crisis in December, silence has reigned.
Causes for concern are many and primarily focus on Putin’s seemingly ambiguous commitment to democracy. Putin, in recent months, has presided over the somewhat questionable break-up of the oil giant Yukos, rescinded the rights of Russian citizens to elect their own regional governors and placed that power firmly in his own hands, and has silenced a number of media outlets critical of his leadership. In addition to democracy issues, however, Bush and Putin have also butted heads over a number of foreign policy differences, most recently highlighted by Putin’s avowal that he believes Iran is not interested in building a nuclear weapon — a position Bush categorically disagrees with.
Bashing Schroeder — one of the duller politicians to trod the international stage in some time and that’s saying something — is easy. But it was interesting that Der Spiegel “got” what Bush was about with Putin more than many in our own press. Bush is one of the more successful poker players I have watched in some time. This guy wants to win; others want to “be right.” Anyone who has been through more than ten cents’ worth of psychotherapy (or has a tad of common sense) knows which is the more productive approach. My best guess is that Bush was about coopting Putin. “Hey, my man here says he loves democracy!” What could Vladimir do but gulp and nod? We’ll see how this plays out down the line, but as strategies go, it’s not bad.
The Der Spiegel article sounds promising, but we must remember that this represents a tiny fraction of EuroThought, at least on the media level.
Just a thought, but could we be preparing Russia for a take-over by the United States? Oh-so clandestine, but a take-over none-the-less.
Think of how Old Europe would react if they learned about it.
No one would want to take over Russia. Trust me.:)
I think you’re confusing Bush with Napoleon.
I gotta agree with Roger here, no body wants to take over Russia. Once you get it, what the hell would you do with it?
Russia tried to do too much too fast and the mafia took over and now Putin is taking over the mafia.
I heard several commentators that I respect giving Bush a hard time for not coming down harder on Putin and I thought what do they expect him to do? I am just glad they are not the Soviet Union anymore.
I do think that Putin needs to back off, both in terms of domestic policy and Iran. He has been very popular with the people of Russia but that is beginning to change. And Bush may be counting on the fact that Putin knows he can’t go back. Putin says he knows that, but we will see.
Off topic, I guess and the post is a month old, but The Dissident Frogman has a great opinion piece on the Axis of Weasels. And whatever you do, don’t press the Red Button just above the “When The Nazis Aren’t Enough” article.
Didn’t Roger meet with him ‘over there’ a few years ago?
Trouble is, we might have no choice. Not if we want to keep China out of the Russian Far East.
It’s been said that the only country that could ever conquer Russia was the U.S. Because only we understand the problems involved. But, in this case we wouldn’t be conquering Russia exactly. More like stepping in to provide stability when Russia is gone.
In Russian Compendium Final Historian lists 6 essays he’s done on the death of Russia. Read them all.
In China, What the Future May Hold Part 3 Chuck of You Big Mouth, You writes of China’s need for the resources of the Russian Far East, and of the RFE’s pathetic state vis a vis internal and external affairs.
In short, Russia is in bad shape at best. Dead for all intents and purposes at worst. Things will change for the worst there no matter what we do. How bad the changes are depends on how we handle the situation.
The Iraqi and Ukrainian elections sure knocked the stuffing out of the Chirac-Schroeder ‘soft power’ balderdash.
European political leaders once thought invulnerable, like German FM Joschka Fischer, are now surrounded by circling media sharks. Chirac’s and Schroeder’s constant barrage of anti-American sneers wear thin as France and Germany’s unemployment rates both break double digits (while the US enjoyed a surprisingly robust 2004 fourth quarter 3.8% GDP increase).
Schroeder won’t bite the hand that controls Russia’s natural gas supplies. Putin knows it, the whole world knows it. Germany invests in Vladimir’s Russia because not doing so is a risk Schroeder isn’t willing to take. The old Bush-bashing routine appears to be off the table, at least for now, leaving the Green-SocDem coalition extremely vulnerable in the next round of elections.
“Bush is one of the more successful poker players I have watched in some time.”
Isn’t it unfortunate that the MSM and the American intelligentsia has missed this point for the past 4 years? And will do so for the next 4 years as well because they can’t admit they are elitist ninnies.
Many world politicians operate on a ‘Chess’ paradigm (if that high), where everything is discrete and calculable. Poker, it seems, is a bit closer to reality.
Deutsche Welle’s website has an article that lays out Germany’s dependency on Russian natural gas. Germany Bound to Russia Over Energy Policy includes this quote:
Moscow already sees its energy policies as an important instrument of its foreign and security policy. In addition, in order to reach its growth goals, Russia needs to set very high oil and gas prices in the coming years. This will above all affect consumers.
And energy expert MÔøΩller sees another problem: Europe is the biggest import market for natural gas, and its needs are increasing quickly. “Russia doesn’t have the capacity to meet Europe’s long term needs,” he said.
So if, in the future, the Russians put the squeeze on the Baltic States, or the Ukraine, or Poland, etc., what sort of response should the world expect from the EU? And what other part of the world holds vast reserves of natural gas?
Roger,
DITTO!
I can’t agree more. President Bush shrewdly put Putin on notice, “Hands off Iran!”
The end is near for the women hating Mad Mullahs of Iran.
Read More Here
LET’S RUMBLE! – “WE WILL, WE WILL. . . ROCK YOU! WE WILL, WE WILL. . . ROCK YOU!
Oophs. Wrong link. Here’s the correct one:
Read More Here
Dishman,
Good analogy…it does seem that the Euros think that they are operating in a world where all the information is available to everyone and everyone has the same assets. But, Poker it is, not chess.
We have the big stack of chips and we can be the table bully and make the raises that cause the bluffers to fold…and if necessary we can bluff ourselves knowing that nobody out there has the balls or resources to call us.
And if someone does decide to go all-in, well, let’s ask Saddam or Mullah Omar how that turned out.
In a brief discussion with a Euro friend today I mentioned how tenuous the Russian situation seemed in particular noting the health and demographic problems that have been pointed to by commenters here in other threads. I also noted that there seem to be claims that China is moving to fill Siberia since the Russians can’t. Her reponse to that was, paraphrasing, that if that’s true then Russia is “finished” ’cause the Germans will buy it from one side while the Chinese take it from the other. Hmmm…
Somewhat OT but peripherally related is this AEI article about the The Revival of the U.S.-Japanese Alliance.
“Bush is one of the more successful poker players I have watched in some time.”
Nope. He’s a euchre player. He gets everyone all het up about something and, while they argue, he steals the deal.