I think that’s more than a little optimistic, but two articles (less than three hours old) linked one Power Line today make on wonder if the Baathist holdouts, at least, are reading the handwriting on the proverbial graffiti-filled wall.The first of these speaks of secret (read: back channel) negotiations with the Baathists. Of course the “devil” is, as always, in the details… and you’ll never guess who one of the devils is this time:
Controversial Iraqi politician Ahmad Chalabi said on Sunday the outcome of any negotiations between insurgents and the U.S. military would not be binding for a new Iraqi government.
“I know nothing about such negotiations. Those negotiations will in no way bind the elected government of Iraq,” he said in an interview with ABC’s “This Week.” “The issue here is not negotiating with the killers who are killing the Iraqi people.”
Interesting. I don’t know what to make of this, except that Baathists aren’t the only killers out there, not by a long shot. Meanwhile the second recent report has Sunni Tribal leaders having second thoughts about joining the government:
Gathering in a central Baghdad hotel, about 70 tribal leaders from the provinces of Baghdad, Kirkuk, Salaheddin, Diyala, Anbar and Nineveh, tried to devise a strategy for participation in a future government. There was an air of desperation in some quarters of the smoke-filled conference room.
“When we said that we are not going to take part, that didn’t mean that we are not going to take part in the political process. We have to take part in the political process and draft the new constitution,” said Adnan al-Duleimi, the head of Sunni Endowments in Baghdad.
I think this is more clearly good news. But the playing field remains as treacherous as can be. Still, you have to do something. Who was it who said you don’t make peace with your friends? Some deceased Israeli, as I recall.
Chalabi might want to keep this low profile, who knows? I don’t begin to understand his part in all of this.
The violence the last two days has made it plain to the Iraqi people that the choices are limited. They can chose to stand up to the people who are blowing them and build a country of their own or they can descend into endless sectarian violence.
Those terrorists have really lousy PR. Go along with me and I might or might not cut off your head, don’t and I will blow you up.
It’s amazing what a little dose of a popular election may have wrought: not only the 2 things that you refer to in your post, but also the defrosting of US relations with “Old Europe”.
Let’s hope it continues.
You don’t make peace with friends. You make it with very unsavory enemies. —Yitzhak Rabin
Let’s see, Time’s accuracy rate is what? It seems to me that this is just another attempt of the far left weekly rags to create conflict where there is none. If you want real news stick to the Blogs.
I am been saying for a long time that the Baathists are secularists who enjoy aged whiskey, young women, and fast cars. They are not even slightly interested in dying for Allah. It is absurd to confuse them with the Islamic nihilists. Please feel free to Google my previous comments on this very blog. I take it for granted that the Baathists realize that they cannot defeat the Iraqi majority—and will seek a reasonable compromise.
Do you really want to understand the Baathists? If so, watch the gangster movie, Goodfellas. The Baathists are more similar to mobsters than true believers existentially committed to death and destruction. By the time the Soviet Union collapsed there were few dedicated Marxists. The same is true regarding Baathist socialism in Iraq and Syria.
That should have been blowing them up, not blowing them and no it was not a Freudian slip.
This raises the question of course of why the Sunnis should want them back. “Forming an organization to represent the disenfranchised Sunnis?” Like Vito Genovese and the Italian-American Anti-Defamation League represented the Italian community in New York?
The best they can hope for is amnesty from the new government, and I’m not sure even that’s a good idea, since it was the unemployed legbreakers of the KGB who formed the heart of the Russian Mafia…
Now, this story in Time is interesting: suppose it is true, that there ARE US diplomats huddled with Sunnis, trying to make a ‘treaty’ with Saddam’s loser henchmen.
And Chalabi comes forward and points out that there is an IRAQI government now, and (not coincidentally) he (Chalabi that is) is pretty powerful in that government.
Now, it looks to me that the US ‘diplomats’ chatting it up with the Sunnis could be those State and CIA losers who think that the ME should be dominated by ‘stable’ Sunni governments, and furthermore, who – for the past decade – have libelled and slandered Chalabi as a thief and opportunist.
Saddam’s plan never included winning a “Frontal Assault”. The plan was always to send a steady stream of Flag covered caskets back to America and let the Anti-War crowd do the rest.
My daughter went back to Iraq last week, the people in the Atlanta airport stopped and clapped as they walked thru the airport.
Saddams plan has failed. Time for his minions to negotiate junior ministry postions and ambassadorships to countries no one ever heard of.
Zarqawi and crew are still out there, and will fight to the death. Look for IED’s to drop and suicide bombers staying steady.
Deuce – End Game in Syria?
You’ve got to wonder what’s going through the minds of Syrians as they watch events unfold both in Lebanon and Iraq.
“Damascus had now told senior American officials that a unilateral withdrawal of its 15,000 troops was out of the question until Israel ended its occupation of the Golan Heights, which it seized from Syria in 1967 and annexed 14 years later.”
What if Israel takes it on. I know there would be strong resistance but I’d love see negotiations over the return of the Golan Heights encompass the refugee status of Palestinians in Lebanon (376,000 – 476,000) and Syria (383,000). Perhaps the refugees can be given permanent resident status in both Lebanon and Syria with retention of voting rights in Palestine. It’s too bad this region, including Iraq and Jordan, isn’t structured like the EU with respect to mobility of their citizens. (Syria has up to 1,000,000 of its citizens in Lebanon as guest workers, a country the size of Connecticut.)
I know the above is off topic but odds are Iraq will cobble together a constitution resembling Lebanon’s confessional democracy. Syrians, ruled by Alawites, may be wondering why they can’t do the same.
To use a Roger device, in the Dep’t of Your Guess is as Good as Mine…aka, “I hope that”:
Chalabi is naysaying this up front so that when the Iraqi government accepts it, it will not have the appearance of being an exercise in rubber stamping U.S. desires. Bush won’t be willing to make a deal (for Iraqi governemtn’s approval) unless he’s pretty well satisfied that it will stick and help the fledgling democracy take proper root.
Divide and conquer. Once Zarqawi is one of the very few terror shows in town, his well trained volunteers will save their big bang for someplace where it may have an effect. It’s his new recruits we need to be more concerned about, but since they are easier to spot and seem to pre-explode as often as not, their dissapearnace will, I hope, soon follow.
Terrye: The principle joy of a Freudian slip is that the slipper has no standing to assess whether it was one or not; it’s the ones who hear it that decide. [Sorry, couldnt resist]
gonzo azul ó The Golan Heights are one big sniper’s nest aimed at Israel. The Syrians used to shell Israeli towns and kibbutzim on a daily basis. The Israelis would be insane to give them back.
“Zarqawi and crew are still out there, and will fight to the death. Look for IED’s to drop and suicide bombers staying steady.”
But isn’t it likely that the Sunni insurgents were either helping Zarqawi or at least had some knowledge of his network?
If they were actively helping him, (and to me it seems unlikely that his crew of Iraqi killing foreigners could have stayed hidden in Iraq without help from the Sunni’s) losing that help will be a real blow to Zarqawi.
Even if the Sunni weren’t helping him surely any “deal” made with the Iraqi government would have to include any information they have about him. Either way, if this story is true, this is hopefully VERY bad news for Zarqawi.