Mahmoud Abbas has apparently ordered Hamas and other terror groups to stop the violence. Israeli forces are therefore suspending activites in Gaza. If true, this is an important first step, but the Al Aqsa Brigade is already resisting. Will a Palestinian bloodletting be in the offing?
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Roger:
Sharon needs to be hopefull and keep his powder dry and ready just in case. Abbas needs to know that he can’t play Arafat’s strategy of talking peace in English and fomenting war in Arabic and get away with it. I am extremely doubtfull but Abbas needs a chance to show that he will crack down on Hamas and all the other killers. But if he thinks he will get away with playing the Arafat two step he needs to be shown in a forcefull way that it will not work.
Roger, I don’t buy it. He is doing the usual double talk. Same sh*t, different day (or to put it another way, same sh*t, different suit.) His men are the ones who let last week’s terror attack at the Karni border crossing between Gaza and Israel on Thursday which killed six Israelis – four employees of the Israel Ports Authority and two truck drivers – happen in the first place:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A8941-2005Jan14.html
and here is more:
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/527504.html
Via the indispensible Daily Alert
I’ll believe it when I see it. At this junction, I still considered PA/PLO to be a terrorist group not worthy of any sort of communication.
Lovely words from Abbas, but let’s see if he means it. Hamas has already said they won’t go along with a cease-fire. Will Abbas have the brass to make this policy stick? Does he even want to? That “Zionist enemy” crack does not inspire confidence. Heck, does he even control his own security services? The PA security forces are so corrupt and factionalized that his ability to make them obey is open to question.
Despite the media rush to embrace Abbas, the best thing to do is take a cautious “wait and see” approach.
Keep building that wall Israel.
Let the Pals run around shooting their own for talking to the Jews and in general showing the world they can’t live any other way.
I have an inner optimist (who sees Abbas as a chance at a real change in the Palestinian/Israeli wars) and an inner pessimist (who sees Abbas as just another Arafat who speaks peace and does war). I hate it when my inner pessimist is right. I really hope my inner optimist is the one who is right here. Time will tell.
Palestinian acceptance of Israelís right to exist is the mandatory first step. Letís hear it and see it on the ground.
Roger
I think its fairly obvious that the Palestinians will settle for nothing less than the complete removal of the Jewish state. As laong as there is 1 Jew and 1 Palestinian in the Middle East there will never be peace. Sharon should order the immediate destruction of all settlements bordering the fence and give 1 final warning, citing all previous attempts at peace to the detriment of Isreal. If another attack occurs, he should wipe them out completely.
Violence is all they seem to understand. Let them have it.
I reserve judgement on Abbas and remain cautiously optimistic. The mandatory first step is the cessation of violence. The mandatory second step is Palestinian acceptance of the Zionist state. Hard rows to hoe.
LET THE CIRCUS GAMES BEGIN AGAIN
Abbas has two choices: continue the war with Israel, losting effectiveness rapidly as the wall continues to be build (although megaterror attacks are still possible), and civil war among Palestinians, with significant participation in the anti-peace side by outside forces – Iran and Syria (at least Saddam won’t be contributing). The Palestinians could try terrorism outside of Israel in an attempt to scare external forces into siding with them. But that didn’t work too well before, and Europe is already on their side.
My prediction: civil war between the terrorist factions, complicated by infiltration of the government and the various groups by each other (and hopefully, Shin Bet).