Talking heads have endlessly debated our actions vis-a-vis Falluja, many criticizing our not taking the fascist stronghold months ago. I am not so sure. What were are trying to accomplish in Iraq is obviously remarkably difficult and complex. In any case, with elections drawing near, it appears the time has come. For me that means turning to the Iraqi blogs for on the ground information. Iraq the Model is on hiatus for a few days, but The Mesopotamian has “Hurricane Jitters” as well he might.
It does not please any Iraqi to see any city or town in our country suffering the kind of fate that seems to await unfortunate places like Falujah and Ramadi; but whose fault is it really? Were not the people in the town given every chance to reform their ways and stop sabotaging their own country, only to have the place hijacked by extremists who turned the place into a safe haven for killers, kidnappers, be-headers and suicide bombers exported to Baghdad and elsewhere? Extremists turned the place into a Taliban like hell where ordinary people were subjected to the most ignominious and cruel treatment, and I refer you to the few reports that came out from inside the town, and also to the letter from Dave (link on the side bar) where he reports incredibly, that some of the residents are asking the American forces to bomb their own houses which have been occupied by terrorists.
The man called Alaa, who blogs as The Mesopotomian, describes himself as a voice of the Iraqi “silent majority.” This agnostic hopes to God he is. But atheist, agnostic or true believer, the foxholes have been dug and it is time for all of us to pray for them.
Quoting Micheal Ledeen for the umpteenth time:
Faster…please.
What Falluja needs is a good old dose of what used to be called “Shake & Bake”. Aircraft loaded with Mk-82 500 pounders followed up with napalm. I know nape is no longer in the inventory, but it would sure come in handy here.
The battle in Fallujah may well turn out to be a bit anticlimactic. The loose cordon imposed on the city means that many of the Baathist thugs have slipped away. The remaining diehards have only a hard death in front of them that will be efficiently provided by the combined Iraqi/American forces. The real question is whether or not the Iraqi forces will be able to maintain security in the city after the battle. Will they be able to identify the Baathist thugs who slipped out prior to the battle as they try to slip back in? That will be the real long term test. If they can isolate and imprison (or hang) the bad guys who have snuck out of Fallujah before they set up shop again then the victory will be meaningful.
It is indeed a good time to pray – for the allied Iraqi/American forces and for the innocents unable to flee before the reduction begins.
Fallujah has to be invested in such a way as not to be a viable Arab Alamo or Masada.It appears to me that the entire softly softly approach has been to that end.I wouldn’t be surprised if the were not a large cache of explosives ready to be detonated when Fallujah is overrun,much better the troops take as much time as is needed than waste their lives in a cess pit like Fallujah.
Patience was needed to allow the elections to pass and for the training of the Iraqi troops that will be needed maintain the security of Fullujah.
Hopefully it has also provided a time for the lawless elements to gather and the lawful elements to leave.
May God bless and keep our troops as they storm this hell-hole.
ìPatience was needed to allow the elections to pass and for the training of the Iraqi troops that will be needed maintain the security of Fullujah.î
The reelection of George W. Bush demoralizes the Islamic nihilists. A Kerry victory would have likely increased the violence. These monsters now realize that the Americans will not back down. I soon expect things to dramatically improve in Iraq.
Misc comments…
I believe we still have nape – but it’s called something else because of a slight change in the chemical formula. I wonder how useful it is in urban warfare, though.
The date will be set by Allawi. I think it is any time now.
We did have a loose cordon. We now have a tight cordon. The question is: why did we have a loose cordon? Are our commanders stupid (these days, that’s unlikely). Was it tighter than we think, with the intent of snatching bad guys outside the city? Something is fishy.
Finally, I hope the embedded video folks get good stuff. It should be interesting to see major urban warfare with one side have advanced technology (night vision, UAVs, precision bombing, precision aerial gunfire including the 105 in the AC-135, good commo, GPS’s) and a well trained volunteer force. This coming battle has been compared to the 1968 liberation of Hue, Vietnam. I hope we do better in friendly casualties.
I would not be surprised to also see barrages of MANPAD missiles used by the bad guys, huge explosive mines such as houses next to the tank paths with many tons of explosive, and, I suspect chemical warfare: sarin, cyanide, mustard gas – whatever remnants they were able to dig up, or that were already stocked before the war for this operation.
Finally, do any groundpounders here know why they seem to keep using airburst artillery? I can’t imagine that the bad guys are grabbing a quick tan or something, so what’s the goal? Mine detonation?
Here is one possibility, John (read it today, can’t recall where). As a result of our ostensibly weak-kneed “loose cordon” of the holdouts, many Islamofascists have flocked to Falluja to partake in what they predict to be a successful backing-down of the U.S. military. So that, now that we are, to their surprise, going in with massive troop numbers, we will as a result end up killing vastly more of them than we would have if we had taken the city full stop a year ago. Is this description accurate? If so, is it possible that our military strategists (military psychologists?) foresaw this and designed the whole thing in precisely this way?
Jim,
One might take that idea one step further and consider other avenues of duplicity. Apparently we have promised at least $75 million for “repairs” subsequent to the reduction. The Fallujans may be a bit tired of their foreign “guests” but Arab custom forbids them from using force to dislodge them. Further, there was a much stronger possibility of some sort of Baathist comeback prior to Nov, 2. We can all be assured that the sheiks of Fallujah paid as close attention to the election here as we did. These fellows have a rich tradition of willingness to be thugs for whomever can offer the most money. I believe that it is a good bet that foreigners will outnumber Fallujans among the casualties. We’ll know shortly.
Before the previous assault on Fallujah, I recall that there was somewhat of an evacuation of people who didn’t want to be caught up in the action. After we backed down, many returned. I haven’t heard of this happening again.
I would guess that if the premise is that there are even more bad guys there now, then it may become a shooting gallery where we take no chances. This could be the battle that the war protesters thought would come with an assault on Baghdad.
Let’s hope that the skill of the American forces in Fallujah make this as quick and deadly for the terrorists with as little collateral damage as possible.
Having said that, urban warfare is significantly different than the open desert where the enemy is more easily detected. While there are many reasons why, the inhabitants of Fallujah have provided a haven for the radicals who have attacked us. This is a shoot first, ask questions later operation. (I hope the innocents find safety.) I am sure our forces are expecting evry conceivable booby trap.
Once again, we have been given a description of the way the Islamic radicals rule when they have power in the comment “Extremists turned the place into a Taliban like hell where ordinary people were subjected to the most ignominious and cruel treatment.” There is no other course of action but extermination.
I think it was a mistake to back off from Fallujah (just as it was a mistake not to take out Al Sadr early, thereby giving him legitimacy). It gave the appearance that we were weak. We should have given the inhabitants of the city one week to turn over the “bad guys” or else. Now we are at the time of “or else”. We will find out how many have slipped in or out of the city.
The question is how good is our intelligence regarding the Fallujah campaign. Does anyone have any idea?
I would guess that we have good tactical intelligence in Fallujah. We have the UAV’s, and I would suspect that some scouts have gone into the city in disguise, I’d guess there have been defectors, and the civilians who fled have probably told us good stuff.
The problem is what is hidden in the buildings and under the streets.
Time will tell.
If you read the Centcom releases, study some military blogs and generally snoop for info, you can come away believing that this time Falluja is really being prepped to get rid of the terrorists and have the ING and IP be able to manage the city in the aftermath. The operation in April did not have a reliable Iraqi force/face to put on the street afterwards, the soveringty transfer was looming and although the Marines did a superb job, the result was doomed to failure not in the battle, but in the long haul.
The current precision airstrikes and artillary barrages are taking out barricades and covered fighting positions to force the fighting more out in the open and into places where we will be able to kill them in greater numbers.
Don’t be impatient, we will go when we are ready and Allawi has agreed. Until that time we will continue to soften up the resistance and force the field of battle to our advantage.
John Moore,
You will notice that the terrorists inside Falluja have threatened to use chemical weapons. Where did these come from? And if they are used, what will be the reaction among those US citizens who have claimed all along that “Bush lied” about the existence of such weapons?
WB,
Obviously Haliburton sold them to the terrorists.
There are some intersting points on the Strategypage
http://www.strategypage.com//fyeo/qndguide/default.asp?target=iraq.htm&base=iraq&Prev=0&BeginCnt=0
WichitaBoy said –
You will notice that the terrorists inside Falluja have threatened to use chemical weapons. Where did these come from? And if they are used, what will be the reaction among those US citizens who have claimed all along that “Bush lied” about the existence of such weapons?
To quote Emily Latella:
You mean there were WMD’s in Iraq? Oh… um…. never mind.
Every time the Israelis go up against entrenched arab guerillas, the arabs lose. The arabs will likewise lose against well disciplined US and Iraqi troops.
There’s an excellent article written by a military writer entitled “Why Arabs Lose Wars”. It seems to be a very consistent theme for arabs over the last 1200 years or so.
PeterUK,
Good link.
If the terrorists use chemical weapons, we should withdraw our troops to the periphery and destroy every potential target in the city from the air. If that means wiping the city off the map so be it. God have mercy on the innocents who will be killed. They had better run and ask for mercy from our troops who will have the city surrounded.
As far as the MSM, I would expect them to say that they only had a “little bit” of WMDs and no production capability. Therefore, Bush still lied. Does anyone expect the MSM to change their stripes?
For those who may be interested, here is the link to “legions” cited article.
http://www.meforum.org/article/441
Don’t what to make of this,disinformation,blue funk,enemy agent,psy ops? No doubt there wil be more of this.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200411/s1236326.htm
PeterUK,
It sound like it is laying the ground work for a second installment of “incompetence” leading to one of three outcomes (i) too many American dead or wounded, (ii) too many non-combatants dead or wounded or (iii) both. No matter what happens, ABC and the MSM is in position to hammer away. A quick victory without causualties is an unlikely outcome.
Peter UK,
I’d say he made a fair risk assessment based upon his units task assignment. Had it been an assault on Tikrit, he probably would have stayed. I doubt any Shia officers will defect but I believe that we are asking the officers to lead from the front rather than the rear. That’s a rather novel idea in Arab doctrine. “I’ll be right behind you” (with the good machince guns) is much more likely to be heard than “Follow me, men” in Arab armies. One reason (out of many) why they are easy to defeat.
“If so, is it possible that our military strategists (military psychologists?) foresaw this and designed the whole thing in precisely this way?”
From what I’ve read about the film The Battle of Algiers, this is exactly why we let them have a stronghold. To concentrate them in one area and wipe them out more easily. Unfortunately, terrorists targeting Iraqi civilians probably dampens support for the terrorists and while many Iraqi civilians probably loathe us, better us than the terrorists.
Rick,
I think you are right regarding the captain who deserted. It was probably an “I’m going to save my own skin” move.
I interpreted PeterUK’s comment after reading the article as to what was the (ABC) MSM angle.
John Moore ó Napalm works fine in urban combat, as long as its not your city.
::sigh:: This whole business has been absolutely transparent to me since the red-curtain-of-blood moment (per Kim du Toit) passed after the four contractors were killed. Please note what every credible military-related source has at least mentioned, and often emphasized: We’re ready. We’re waiting for Allawi to give the word.
Go back to the very beginning, and try interpreting and predicting based on this premise: George Bush, and the American forces, will try at every point to allow/force the Iraqis to do it for themselves. It explains al Sadr: Iraqis went after the mosques; the final deal was made by Allawi, and was political. It explains Fallujah I: American forces did some heavy lifting, then turned it over to the soi disant Fallujah Brigade (which failed; battles are lost sometimes.) It even, God help us, explains the looting: Americans were waiting for Iraqi police to take charge of the civil situation (in vain.)
Fallujah II isn’t hanging fire: it’s in furious action even as we sit here — it’s just that the action isn’t accompanied by a symphony for howitzer and JDAM, with M16 chorus. It couldn’t even start until there were enough relatively steady Iraqi forces to be the front men for it. (Along that line, look up how long it takes to train an American infantryman or Marine. Now imagine doing that with no place to send them for OJT. The drill instructors deserve the Bronze Star, en masse.) Now Allawi and his allies are trying to pull off a repeat of al Sadr, in my opinion without much hope, only the conviction that it has to be tried to avoid as many casualties as possible.
When Allawi is sure that the diplomatic effort is defeated, the Iraqis will go in with Marine assistance. Yeah, you, I, and the gatepost will know the Marines are doing the heavy lifting, but having the Iraqi forces on point is vital to the strategy, which is Iraq must do it, and must be seen to do it.
No nuance? F* that for a game of soldiers.
Regards,
Ric Locke
We have been hearing this Stalingrad theme since the Israelis went into Jenin. The Arab fighters are not the Wermacht, the Red Army or even the orginal Chechins, who after all were in the Red Army at one time. The US has never fought in the Urban environment using the same tactics as the Germans and Russians. I suggest you find good history of our first urban combat experience in the German city of Aachen. We found that the two best weapons to use were the Bazooka and the self propelled 155 howitzer. Today we still the Bazooka (AT-4) and JDAM is our 155 substitute. We will fight this battle the same way. This fight will not be bloodless but like the other urban actions in this war it will result in a hugh disparity in losses between the terrorists and marines.
I believe the term is “shaping the battlefield” or something like that.
Whatever the term is, I think operating on the notion that the US is doing something dumb for political reasons in Iraq is as misguided as the notion that Bush is politically stupid has turned out to be in the US.
What we know is that there have been extended aerial operations going on for weeks, starting with air strikes on “safe houses”, while at the same time we have been engaging in extended psyops to encourage people to get the hell out of al-Dodge.
The psyops escalated a week or ten days ago when we started actively warning noncombatants to get out; at the same time, we started more intense air ops. We also started talking about how a final assault was coming Real Soon Now.
Now, without having any particular special information, there’s one thing that strikes me about US air ops: beucase of GPS-guided weapons, we can more or less drop a 500 lb bomb — or 2000 lb of concrete — into a trash can and not knock the adjacent ones over, from 40,000 feet. This means that, on the ground, with no warning and no jet noise, the building next to you, with your comrades and your mess, can blow up in a very big and impressive way with no warning whatsoever.
If you’re not under cover, you deal with air burst AP; if you’re under cover, you deal with the problem that if you operate out of the same building for very long it’s liable to become a smoking hole.
Again, this is just supposition, but it’s very much my guess that the Fallujah forces are having to keep moving and not concentrate at any point for very long. That means very little ability to build up either concentrated forces or fortifications.
It also means that, between surprise explosions and lots of smaller-scale fire, the Fallujah fighters probably haven’t had a good night’s sleep in weeks.
The psyops have ramped up that much more now: we’re letting women and children out, but now we’re taking any fighting-age males into custody going in or out, while increasing the air ops and — so I heard today on the news — doing leaflet drops (actually, I’m sure those started before, but I’m sure the intensity has gone up, and the dire warnings have become more dire.)
What this all adds up to, to me, is this: when the actual assault starts, the Marines will be going in rested, organized, armored, well-trained, well-fed and with good esprit, and supported by heavy armor and coordinated air support — facing a force that hasn’t slept, hasn’t been well-fed, and with most all of their concentrations for force and significant fortifications reduced.
I suspect that the battle for Fallujah, when it happens, will be a rout like Cannae — the “insurgent” forces will collapse quickly and be slaughtered or surrender in mass numbers.
I,m linking as much as I can find,a some what disparate agglomeration of infomation,but no doubt it will produce some idea of what is happening.
http://www.command-post.org/iraq_index.html
Oh, it’ll be a rout, but we’ll lose quite a few boys. It doesn’t get any more heroic: Sitting there waiting for the command to go in, knowing you could end up one of the unlucky few who fall and that there are national elections in the fledgling democracy in two months, thanks to your putting your life on the line and to the thousand of your buddies who died. The liberation of Iraq is one of the very few high points in the history of human freedom, and this battle will probably be an apotheosis of it, including its good, bad, and ugly. We could have left, as my wise but mistaken paleocon friend insists we should have. We’re going to lose quite a few boys, we’re going to kill many wicked men in a short period of time, and reviews from the locals will be mixed. Good, bad, and ugly, which is pretty much all you can expect from high points in the history of freedom.
Regarding the article “Why Arabs Loose Wars” referenced by legion. Another fine book on the same subject is “Arabs at War” by Kenneth M. Pollack. Yes, it’s the same Pollack who wrote “The Threatening Storm”.
John Moore -
One of the variables inherent to MOUT is the accumulation of debris that becomes defenses and choke points that benefit the defender.
The target in Fallujah is the infestation of Baathist deadenders, foreign fighters, and the common criminal component that has always existed there. Not the city.
We can ‘flatten’ the city at will – but the eyeball level perspective for the troops actually entering the area will be of a roadless wasteland of shattered buildings and clogged streets. The prepared positions that survive will be perfectly camoflauged by the surrounding devastation and every rubbish pile becomes an IED by shoving a charge into the bricks and sticks.
Artillery has killed more troops than any other weapon on any battlefield. But it’s not merely the shrapnel and point of contact fatalities that make arty the King of Battle. Airbursts put the concussion and shrapnel cone on target in a descending hemispheric wave form, vice the “V” shaped eruption from even a graze ground burst.
A 155mm shell going off 20m above a building won’t immediately kill everybody inside. It might not even incapacitate them. Sure, the roof will probably punch in. Anybody on the top two or three floors will be at the least concussed if not killed. The guys in the basement will be thinking “What the hell was THAT?” because they’ll be deaf. That’s one artillery shell.
Remember, a firing battery has eight guns, and fire for effect on a stationary target is generally 3-6 rounds per tube, depending on the discretion of the Fire Direction Officer. With digilink GPS enabled comms, the ability of scouts and patrols to employ artillery almost as fast as their own organic mortars or grenadiers is a reality.
Infantry hates enemy artillery worse than anything in the world. All they can do is take it and hope that somebody back in their command has enough pull to generate counterfires to take the pressure off. On the other hand, infantry that trusts their supporting fires will routinely call fires down to danger close (100M from their pos) without undue stress.
I have noticed a lot of one-gun missions in the paltry coverage of arty that I have seen. That tells me that they are either registering targets or conducting precision destruction missions, that is using one gun, one tube, corrections laid on using decimal adjustments of the deflection and quadrant settings on the gun.
I helped put an eight inch HE/Quick Fuze round into a dumpster from 17KM back in 1983. It took three rounds to adjust; the dumpster had shifted about fifty meters from where it was originally set by the second round which is why the third round missed. If we could do it then with charts and darts, they can do much better now with GPS/laser rangers/digicomms.
Oh, and after thirty or forty airbirsts inside of two minutes, if the bad guys are deep enough to be alive, they aren’t a threat any more because the Marines will already have grenaded their bunkers on their way through. If the Marines find that some positions are too deep for arty to suppress, they’ll call in air with LGB’s (I imagine there are a lot of slugs set up already – guided bomb cases carrying minimal if any explosive filler) to punch directly down through buildings without collapsing them. The opposition fears our hitech and with good reason, but once they are out in the open they fear our riflemen as much as any Buck Rogers weapon we can throw at them.
This won’t be Stalingrad, and it certainly won’t be Berlin where the Russians advanced behind field artillery used as assault guns. Wretchard at Belmont Club has been posting on the data collection/analysis component of the tactical situation and is always worth a look.
We aren’t going to Fallujah to pacify it. We are going to kill or capture the insurgents to a man. I believe our relationship with the Syrians and Iranians will undergo a fundamental change at the same time. No predictions, though. I want to see what happens.
TmjUtah,
RE: One gun arty missions
Don’t forget we have the M712 laser-guided round. Although it was originally intended for use against Soviet tanks in Europe, it would be extremely useful in an urban environment where we need to worry about civilian casualties.
The XM982 would be even better for this kind of thing. Unfortunately it’s not quite ready yet.
Hylas –
“Accuracy measured in centimeters.”
Oooh, I like it.
Daddy, daddy, can I have one?
It sound like it is laying the ground work for a second installment of “incompetence” leading to one of three outcomes (i) too many American dead or wounded, (ii) too many non-combatants dead or wounded or (iii) both. No matter what happens, ABC and the MSM is in position to hammer away. A quick victory without causualties is an unlikely outcome.
And believe me, they’re just waiting. The MSM ain’t done with Bush; if anything, their attitudes and tactics are going to get worse – not better.
I wouldn’t put it past those terrorists to scurry away a whole crowd of women and children and exterminate them – and then claim that our guys did it.
Americans are going to need to maintain their stomachs for this, because the operation – and the coverage of it – will be anything but pretty.
tim:
What found in previous war to be most effective use of artillary in an urban environment is the self-propelled 155 to deliver precise fire. This is not an indirect fire mission because of the rubblization factor. The gun stands off from effective small arms range as is literally bore sited to the target which yields one round one building. I don’t think we are going use artillery this way in Falluja. We are going to use JDAM or LGBs. We have probably GPS mapped the entire city by now so we are limited only by the sortie rate. Presumably we will strategic bombers available with long loiter times and large payloads.
We also know that best way for infantry to traverse through a dense urban area is through the buildings and not the streets. That’s what bazookas are for. You blow a hole through adjacent walls to get through buildings. We have used this tactic effectively in Germany, Manila and Korea. Street fighting is a pretty dumb idea. European armies do it but they have never had the kind of firepower available that we have. The Russians just don’t care about casualties. This will be a entirely different kind of street fight.
Hylas -
Copperhead is pretty pricey, intended to kill armor on the move (HEAT style warhead, not very effective against troops), and works best when the laser illumination is clearly visible. I don’t think they’ll be using it in a town where the sitelines will be mostly street level.
jerry -
I agree with you about JDAM’s and LGB’s. The recon and analysis capabilities at our disposal are on the far side of fantastic. Falljuah (and the other cities targetted for this op) have probably been more exquisitely mapped than any other communities on the planet.
Our objective is to capture or kill every insurgent in the area. Their objective is to make the price to us high enough for our media and domestic opposition to exploit it. They have a low bar to hurdle; if we kill them to a man (which means 8-10K dead) and lose a hundred men doing it, we’ll only hear a mix of how heartless we are (killing barbarians who decapitate their victims) and how callous our president is for sending a hundred men to their deaths.
We definitely won’t hear about civil control passing into Iraqi hands before the elections, and most certainly will not see a breakdown of how many Iranian, Syrian, Saudi, Pal, et al. fighters we smoked.
I see a two or three week operation; the towns are just so big, and the ability to set the pace of the battle that we enjoy seems to suggest that kind of timeframe for at least Fallujah.
Look for Syria and Iran to experience heightened domestic unrest the same time this happens, too. Just a hunch. It’s long past time we started actively destabilizing those folks. I’ve always believed we wouldn’t begin that phase of the war until after the election was won. And now here we are.
Speaking of street fights, from the sound of things on Fox, it’s started. 1ST MEF taking “staging areas” inside Fallujah proper.
Looks like the balloon has gone up.
http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory?id=234070
TmjUtah,
RE: Copperhead
Sightlines are not a problem if the target designator is in a helicopter or UAV. Obviously a 15 pound shaped charge warhead is not going to take out masses of troops, but it could clear out a house full of insurgents while leaving adjacent houses intact. The precision (higher than GPS) and small warhead are exactly what you need in a situation like Falluja.
Unfortunately, they are expensive.
PeterUK,
Yup. I hope the Marines passed on some black flags to the Black Watch. This battle requires a shared guidon.
God be with and bless our Marines, soldiers, airmen, the Black Watch and our Iraqi allies.
It also looks as if the opposition is wasting its ammunition firing wildly as usual.Do those boys love tracer.
A bit more detail,has this paper changed sides?
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/11/07/international/middleeast/07cnd-iraq.html?ex=1257570000&en=122d24191b694bdd&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland
Interesting timing.
I was half-expecting it to begin the minute the polls closed on the west coast. Of course, that’s probably when the bad guys were on their highest guard as well, so I guess we gave them a few more extra sleepless nights to wear them down a bit.